US DollarLooking at historical events, Specially heading into 2025 as a year where we could see sharp declines in the stock market as rebalancing commences early in 2025. The US dollar has enjoyed a lot of support over the last couple of months. and could still enjoy more, but as a long term investor and position trader im not interested in buying USD at these levels as COT index is showing imminent signs of reversals coming. Coupled with Seasonality it could happen in December. ill await clearer shifts on lower time frames for an entry. retail traders also are 80% long EURUSD, the moment they start selling i will buy and hold.
Shorts
What are your thoughts on what's to come for SPX500?I think we're in for a sell to the previous structure high. Obviously a "Counter trend entry" to ride until we return bullish. Just my Thoughts.....What's your opinion?
Thesis: Bearish Bias break and retest (however either play is at hand). Wait for a break and retest
Notes: Every Bull run has had a correction to the previous structure high. Following that trend.
A Retest would be a 50% prz. for the recent move
and right around 23.6% prz for the entire move.
Daily: Bullish, Trading in a minor consolidation for the past few days.
-Reversal pattern with Doji (Loss of momentum) & Bearish Hammer.
-Con: Seller Exhaustion wicks under support
H4: Bullish ( **Hidden Bearish Divergence @ Minor resistance lvl) look for possible sell off
H1: Bullish
What are your thoughts on Gold? Possible Rally??Could we see a rally back to Structure break or Area of Interest???
-Price has broken through and retested Bullish Trend line
-Price has broken through Structure Swing Low
- LH Created
Thesis: Wait for price to pull back to 1)Structure break or 2) Area of interest
Notes:
bearish run is rejecting Daily lvl 2558 W/ Massive rejection wick.
1) Rally to Area of Interest would be around 50% prz. (Head & Shoulders R Pattern)
2) Rally to Structure low (MSS) would be a 23.6prz.
GOLD TRADEvery very bearish this market... last trade was a perfect set up for me and as i can see here on the 1D chart after breaking those lows 2605 i believe the price can push more to the downside and touch 2546...
but just like me and you we do not control the market so we can only sit and wait like a like to say patience always pays.
Pepsi Co to test 157$ resistance, what's next?Pepsi co had a steady bull run from March of 2020 to May 2023, where the price doubled in a span of three years after testing it's long term support line in March of 2020 at 100$.
Since May 2023, the price is in a downtrend and even Trump pump did not help it!
Currently price is about to test its short term resistance at 157$. This price coincides with 0.382 fibonacci retracement level. If the price holds there, there might be a chance for Pepsi co to break out of the downtrend and start a bull run.
However, if the resistance does not hold and price fall below 150$, we are probably going to test the long term trend line (green line) which has been a support since market crash of 2009. If that happens, then we will be looking at prices around 130$ per share. This price is retracement level of 0.618 of fibonacci level.
XAU/USD to continue dropping?From both technical and fundamental analysis I believe we should be seeing the beginning of a gold drop. Gold has been nothing but bullish with extreme euphoric movement. Following Donald Trumps win in the American election we can expect the dollar to begin its bullish ascent meaning that its time for the XAU/USD to finally start its descent.
from my charts we can see that I predict a slight bullish move from the market open reacting of an 8H Imbalance taking Asian high liquidity from the upside and reacting from another 8H IMB to ultimately continue in its downtrend at least until the daily zone that caused a previous break of structure to the upside.
Intraday Shorts to HTF longsCaught intraday shorts on NY open to lower prices.
Because we're overall bullish on the HTF we could possibly see prices go lower.
However, we have to note that price has yet to mitigate and fill imbalances from the initial bearish move from last week's close.
Plenty of intraday opportunities to get into a HTF swing in the coming days.
BTC SHORT 2HR TP:70700 30-10-2024I have conducted an analysis on a 2-hour timeframe, setting a target price of 70,700. This movement is expected to fulfill within 30 hours. Stay alert for potential market manipulations that could impact the progress of this trade. Remember to manage your risk appropriately. Good luck, everyone! #Trading #Bitcoin
$IONQ : 5 REASONS TO BE CAUTIOS! BUYERS BEWARE! NYSE:IONQ 5 REASONS TO BE CAUTIOS! BUYERS BEWARE!
5 REASONS WHY:
1⃣ We have a flag pole pattern. The last flag pole pattern in 2023 had the same 937 bar run before it pulled back.
2⃣ Had a Multi-year Symmetrical breakout but needed to retest the breakout area.
3⃣ RSI is running into resistance
4⃣ Stochastic (Trend) is at all-time highs
5⃣ William R is hitting resistance where the stock has bounced off 4 other times.
I like the name and want to HOP on this move higher, but I'm not going to jump on a flag pole without a parachute. I'm targeting PULLBACK and an entry price of $13-$14.
Stay tuned for more!🔔
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Will the Flag Pole get bigger, or do you agree we are due for a pullback?
What other stocks do you want to see an analysis of?
Not financial advice.
DIXON Short Setup: Evening Star & Potential HNS with Trendline Weekly Analysis
Pattern Observed: Evening Star on Weekly Timeframe
Additional Insights
- The Evening Star pattern tends to be more reliable on Daily and Weekly timeframes, making this setup particularly noteworthy for swing traders.
Trade Setup
1. Entry: Enter after a decisive break below the low of the third (red) candle in the Evening Star pattern.
- Alternatively, you may enter on the fourth candle if it signals a reversal, with a stop loss set according to your risk tolerance.
2. Stop Loss (SL): Can be set based on your risk preference, usually just above the high of the Evening Star pattern.
3. Target (TGT): Consider scaling out at key support levels or use the measured HNS target as detailed below if the formation completes.
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Potential Head and Shoulders (HNS) Formation
Trade Setup for HNS Pattern:
1. Entry : Enter when price decisively breaks below the neckline on a closing basis.
2. Target (TGT): Measure the distance from the top of the head to the neckline and project it downwards from the neckline for your target.
3. Stop Loss (SL): Place the stop above the head of the HNS pattern.
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Additional Confirmation
I've drawn a trendline to monitor for a potential breakdown. If either the Evening Star or HNS pattern aligns with a trendline break, it would serve as an additional confirmation for a short position.
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This setup combines a confluence of technical factors, making it robust for weekly trading decisions. Comments and thoughts welcome!
IMPORTANT THINGS TO REMEMBER
1. Don't be fooled by opearators Theyll try it take it up to sell
2. Don't be a hero, follow SL with 1% extra loss max. (as setup is on Weekly TF)
GBPJPYHello guys TechPips here this is my personal view on gbpjpy market as been bullish on daily and they are beginning to lose momentum or Liquidity since new high as been created so I am expecting a bearish run on daily in this new week we are entering so in my 1hr timeframe I am expecting the bears to break the trend and redirect the trend then I will look for an entry to swing for few days.
NOTE : Risk management is Important in trading so kindly apply it if you are join the ride. All action made by you based on your capital is your responsibility so trade with caution and be smart in taking trades.
MyMI Apex Trader Funding - ES Short Trade on Market OpenWe're looking for a resistance pullback at the lower support level before we can break higher here. We're seeing the formation of an Ascending Triangle which also suggests a more bearish move lower even to retest $5,822 again before truly pushing higher.
Stay tuned for more!
Links in the signature!
GBP/USD idea short Hey everyone i have a possible idea to go short on gbpusd on the daily timeframe.
It goes like this the rising wedge pattern has been broken and is on the right track to a head and shoulders pattern if the pattern is nicely formed then go to a lower timeframe to follow the bearish trend.
Wishing everyone a good trading week!!
#bearish #headandshoulders #short
USD/JPY idea short 1hHey i have a little idea for a short position it goes like this.
A rising wedge pattern is made but does not rise and falls below the pattern so a reversal is coming i think.
Plus he also hit my support on the week time frame so i think my reversal is confirmed now wait and see.
If he should still return and turn above the pattern, then take a long position it's also the weekend this is just a calculation but it seemed like a possible solution when the market opens again.
Enjoy your weekend everyone!
#RisingWedge #Bearish
Follow-up Update on NASDAQ - Down-move has started?This is in continuation from my weekend update on NASDAQ:NDX where I mentioned that we should likely be headed down from the upper channel line of rising wedge. Yesterday we got a negative daily close and in hourly timeframe, we can see clean 5 waves down. More in the video.
SOL and BTC Longs and Shorts Clear inverse relationship between the longs and shorts on SOL.
White (longs)
Orange (shorts)
Right now the longs have reached the same level as when SOL hit its high of 200 back in march this year. Longs got dumped on recently on this small sell off but interest remains at elevated levels.
Shorts coming off their lows and seem to bottom when SOL price peaks.
Longs build up pushing price to local highs then there leaves no one left to buy so price goes after the liquidity (shorts).
Opposite happens with shorts buildup. Price sells off some, shorts pile on pushing price lower until it reaches the local bottom then price reverses once all the longs get liquidated. Then price goes after shorts liquidity.
What then becomes the difference maker is how much spot volume comes in. At the bottom I have the aggregated volume of multiple exchanges showing the spot volume (light) compared to the perp volume (dark). Right now spot volume is pretty low; however, volume is low in general.
My takeaways:
SOL either needs to liquidate these longs while building up shorts. This would put shorts offside setting up for a nice reversal pump into the EOY taking out all the shorts creating a nice squeeze.
Or perhaps spot buying picks up eventually and the longs interest slowly rises surpassing prev long interest causing the breakout.
Similar analysis here on BTC but the short interest is pretty significant. Could be those who are arbitraging the perp funding rate by shorting instead of directional shorts but who knows exactly why.
If BTC begins to break out with strong spot buying soon after election uncertainty and EOY capital flows then all this short interest could get squeezed setting up for a perfect pump higher breaking out of this wretched range.
Time will tell. I think election uncertainty has market on edge as well as war/ recession fud.
EURUSD Technical Analysis! SELL!
My dear subscribers,
This is my opinion on the EURUSD next move:
The instrument tests an important psychological level 1.0990
Bias - Bearish
Technical Indicators: Supper Trend gives a precise Bearish signal, while Pivot Point HL predicts price changes and potential reversals in the market.
Target - 1.0979
About Used Indicators:
On the subsequent day, trading above the pivot point is thought to indicate ongoing bullish sentiment, while trading below the pivot point indicates bearish sentiment.
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WISH YOU ALL LUCK