Bitcoin: Mastering the Art of Resistance and SupportBitcoin recently broke below a 105‐day trading range, anchored by the critical 90K level. After the breakdown, it found support around 80K, prompting a sharp rebound back toward the previous range. This rebound, however, was short‐lived: BTC tested 95K, then quickly retraced, only to rally again toward 90K, where it trades at present.
Overview of BTC’s 105‐Day Range Break and Retest:
Yearly Open at $93,576: This is the single most important level to watch. Price currently sits below the yearly open, suggesting that, for now, bears hold the upper hand. If bulls cannot reclaim this threshold, the yearly candle remains vulnerable to turning red.
90K–95K Resistance Zone: With Bitcoin failing to sustain gains above 95K, this band becomes a natural focal point for potential short entries. Bears are expected to defend this region aggressively.
The question: Where do we go next? Let’s break down both the resistance (short setup) and an upcoming support zone (long setup), incorporating a variety of confluences—from volume profiles and trend lines to Fibonacci retracements and pitchfork alignments.
1. Resistance Analysis & Short Thesis
1.1. Double Top Target at $72,800
A double top pattern has formed, suggesting a measured‐move target near $72,800. While not a guaranteed endpoint, this target serves as an early directional clue. Price could still find support at higher levels, so we use this only as one piece of a larger puzzle.
Double Top Pattern with $72,800 Target:
1.2. The 105‐Day Trading Range & Retest
Bitcoin spent over 100 days ranging between roughly 90K and 105K. The downside break turned that prior range into a new resistance zone—specifically 90K–95K, with an even stronger cluster up to $96,418 (Point of Control from that range).
Fixed Range Volume Profile: The POC (Point of Control) from this 105‐day period lies at $96,418.05, further extending our resistance zone. Price retesting anywhere between 90K and the POC around 96K sets up potential short entries.
Fixed Range Volume Profile Showing POC at $96,418.05:
Stop Loss Guidance: Given the possibility of wicks or “stop hunts,” a safer invalidation point sits above 98K. That buffer allows the trade room to breathe without prematurely stopping out on minor spikes.
1.3. Daily & Weekly Moving Averages
In addition to the above factors, both the daily 21 EMA/SMA and the weekly 21 EMA/SMA are converging in the 90-92K region, acting as additional resistance.
1.4. Bearish Trend Line & Pitchfork Alignment
Bearish Trend Line: Connecting the all‐time high at $109,588 and the swing high at $106,457.44 yields a downward sloping line. This trend line has already acted as resistance near 100K on February 21.
Pitchfork (Modified Schiff): Anchoring from the all‐time high (109,588) to the swing low (97,777.77) and back up to 106,457.44 confirms the same bearish trajectory, aligning neatly with the trend line around 95K.
Bearish Trend Line & Pitchfork Convergence Around 95K:
1.5. Monthly Order Block & Fibonacci Confluence
Monthly Order Block: Spanning from the yearly open (93,576) up to the POC (~96,418), this monthly order block forms a substantial supply zone. Price often gravitates toward the median line of an order block, which sits near 94–95K.
Fibonacci Retracement (0.786): From the swing high at 99,475 (Feb 21) down to the low at 78,258.52, the 0.786 retracement is at 94,934.67—almost exactly the median line of the monthly order block.
Monthly Order Block, Median Line, and 0.786 Fib at ~94,934.67:
When price rallies swiftly to the 0.786 for the first time, it often presents an ideal short entry—especially under a confluence of bearish signals:
2. Short Trade Setup: Laddering In & Out
2.1. Scaling In (Entries)
We allocate $25,000 (from a $100,000 account) and ladder our entries from 89,736 up to 96,206:
Short Trade Laddered Entries:
Stop Loss: $97,560 (slightly below the higher “breathing room” area of 98K).
Max Risk: Approximately $1,028.16 (about 4.11% of the GETTEX:25K position, or 1.03% of the $100k account).
2.2. Scaling Out (Exits)
We plan to take profits in increments as price drops, aiming for an average exit around $79,822.10:
Potential Profit: Approximately $3,704.16 on a $25,000 position, which is +14.82% (or +3.70% of the $100k account).
Risk‐to‐Reward Ratio: 3.60, an attractive R:R for a swing trade.
3. Support Analysis & Long Thesis
Having addressed the downside retest and short scenario, let’s turn to potential support where Bitcoin might reverse for a long trade.
3.1. Double Top Target & 5‐Wave Structure
The double top projected target near $72,800 aligns with a broader Elliott Wave possibility, where BTC may have completed a 5‐wave structure from the low at $15,476 to the all‐time high at $109,588.
A typical Fibonacci retracement of this 5‐wave move suggests the 0.382 level at $73,637.22, which sits near a notable swing high of $73,777—coincidence?
5‐Wave Structure & 0.382 Fib Retracement at ~$73,637:
3.2. Monthly Bullish Order Block & Further Fib Confluence
Monthly Bullish Order Block: Located around $71,280, historically a place where buyers have stepped in.
Fib Retracement (49K to 109K): The 0.618 retracement lands at $72,144.62, adding further confluence around the 72–73K zone.
Taken together, we begin to see a support band forming between $73,777 and $71,280.
Monthly Bullish Order Block & 0.618 Fib ~$72,144.62:
3.3. Fib Speed Fan & Bullish Trend Line
Fib Speed Fan (0.7): On higher timeframes, the 0.7 fan lines up with the same 71–73K region if BTC dips this month.
Bullish Trend Line: Connecting the lows at 49K and 52,550 also aligns with this zone, reinforcing the idea that a cluster of support awaits if price slides that far.
Bullish Trend Line & Fib Speed Fan ~$71–73K:
3.4. Potential Long Trade Setup
Entry Range: Ladder in from 76K down to 71K (or adjust according to personal risk appetite within that 73–71K zone).
Stop Loss: Below 70K, providing sufficient buffer.
Target: At least the monthly open ($84,350), or higher if momentum supports a stronger bounce.
Risk‐to‐Reward (R:R): Aim for 2:1 or better, depending on exact entries and the final target.
4. Summary
Short Trade:
Resistance Zone: 90K–95K, extending up to $96,418 (POC) and with the daily/weekly 21 EMA/SMA acting as additional resistance in the 90-92K region, plus a stop‐hunt buffer above 98K.
Laddered Entry: GETTEX:25K allocated, averaging around $93,706, with a stop near $97,560.
Scaling Out: Average exit near $79,822, netting a +14.82% gain on the position (+3.70% on account).
R:R: 3.60—solid for a swing setup.
Long Trade:
Support Zone: Between $73,777 and $71,280, with multiple Fibonacci and structural confluences.
Laddered Entry: Potential DCA from around 76K down to 71K, with a stop under 70K.
Target: At least $84,350 (monthly open), likely offering a 2:1 or better risk‐to‐reward.
Sharp moves up or down have been the norm lately, often gravitating to the 0.786 fib retracement on each leg, so remain vigilant for sudden volatility.
Ultimately, flexibility is key. If Bitcoin reclaims the yearly open at $93,576 and pushes decisively above 95–98K, the bearish case weakens. Conversely, a significant drop below 80K brings the deeper support zone near 73–71K into sharper focus.
Always be prepared for shifts in market conditions—confirm each setup with multiple indicators and chart patterns before entering any trade. Stay up to date with evolving market dynamics and adjust your strategy accordingly.
Happy trading!
P.S. If you have any coin requests, feel free to share them in the comments. I will be selecting one or two for the next technical analysis.
Shortsetup
SHORT ON GBP/CADGBP/CAD is rejecting a key supply area on the 15min after continuing to make (Lower Highs) on the Higher Time Frames.
There has been a change in market structure from Up to down on the lower timeframe signaling a possible drop.
GBP/CAD is highly over brought and I believe its ready to fall.
I will be selling GBP/CAD to the next swing low for about 100-150 pips. OANDA:GBPCAD
The Great Exit Liquidity Trap: Double Top + Low Volume DumpTL;DR:
This isn't just any dump—this is a textbook exit liquidity trap dressed up with a strategic crypto reserve announcement and a conveniently timed crypto summit sell-the-news event. The setup? An inevitable double top, weaker and weaker volume, and a sell-news-event trapping retail.
Breakdown:
1️⃣ The Double Top Trap → Price fakes a breakout, luring in breakout traders while whales were already offloading bags onto retail.
2️⃣ The "Strategic Crypto Reserve" Announcement → Big words, vague details, and just enough hopium to keep liquidity in the market. But let’s be real—this was just fuel for smart money to distribute.
3️⃣ Low Volume Exit Scam → Volume failed to confirm the pump, and the second peak barely had any buying pressure. That’s your first clue—when volume dies, so does the trend.
4️⃣ Crypto Summit = Sell-the-News Event → Market makers front-ran retail, using the summit hype to sell at a premium before nuking price.
Target Zone:
$80K-$79K is where liquidity pools sit, making it the next logical stop.
If liquidity sweeps don’t trigger new buyers, sub $78K isn’t off the table.
Additional Confluence :
S1 Pivot Rejection → A failed reclaim of key levels.
EMA Pressure → Bearish rejection off moving averages.
Weak Low on the Chart → A magnet for liquidity.
Final Take:
Retail is the exit liquidity in this setup, as always. The market will pump just enough to distribute before dumping into the real target zone. If you aren’t paying attention, you will get played.
The question is: who will be left holding cheaper bags?
$TSLA worst 4 years are ahead us under president Trump? - What biden couldn't done would be done under $TRUMP.
- NASDAQ:TSLA has always traded at a premium devoid of any fundamentals.
- NASDAQ:TSLA cars are ugly looking cars as compared to NYSE:BYD and $RIVN. It's technology is great but you are basically buying a cheap build quality cars.
- Everyone thought that Trumpn <-> Elon parternship will be great for $TSLA. But my hunch is it will be bad for NASDAQ:TSLA shareholders. Elon's association with Trump will drag the NASDAQ:TSLA shares down and always in the limelight.
- Most elite investors are often leftist and might want to distance with trump and elon.
Fundamentally,
Year | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028
EPS | 2.90 | 3.85 | 4.96. | 6.40
EPS growth% | 18.02% | 32.82% | 28.87% | 29.12%
Fair forward p/e for a company growing EPS 20%+ with a moat is ~ 30
Fair stock value:
Year | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028
Stock price ( base case p/e = 30) | $87 | $115 | $148 | $192 |
Stock price (bear case p/e = 20 ) | $58 | $77 | $99 | $128 |
Stock Price ( bull case p/e = 50 ) | $150 | $192 | $248 | $320 |
- Bulltard + Elon musk premium p/e if ELON divorces with Trump = 100
Stock price ( p/e = 100 ) | $290 | $385 | $496 | $640
Will EUR/USD continue to rise or reverse to the downside?🔔🔔🔔 EUR/USD new:
👉The EUR/USD surged 1.75% on Wednesday, approaching the 1.0800 level as market sentiment improved following another shift in U.S. President Donald Trump's trade policy. Trump has once again eased off his previous stance of imposing heavy tariffs on imports, a strategy he had used to retaliate against perceived unfair treatment by other nations.
👉Meanwhile, the European Central Bank (ECB) is expected to cut interest rates by 25 basis points (bps) on Thursday, lowering the Main Refinancing Operations Rate to 2.65% and the Deposit Facility Rate to 2.5%. Despite sluggish and uneven economic growth in the Eurozone during the first quarter, traders have reduced their expectations for further ECB rate cuts in 2025, as inflation remains more persistent than policymakers initially anticipated. The market now predicts fewer than 70 bps in additional rate reductions for the rest of the year.
👉In the U.S., the ADP Employment Change for February showed only 77K new jobs, well below the 140K forecast and March’s 186K figure. However, since a reporting methodology change in 2022, ADP data has had little correlation with Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP), suggesting that the weak figures may not have a significant impact.
Personal opinion:
👉EUR/USD increased by 4% in 3 days so it is dangerous to continue buying
👉Technically, RSI in many time frames is in the extreme zone and there are signs of RSI divergence - This is a forecast for a short-term downtrend.
👉If EUR/USD breaks the trend line and retests this area, consider buying at 1.0800
Analysis:
👉Based on the trend line and RSI combined with resistance - support levels and SMA
Plan:
🔆 Price Zone Setup:
👉Sell EUR/USD 1.0800 – 1.0820
❌SL: 1.0860 | ✅TP: 1.0750 – 1.0700 – 1.0600
FM wishes you a successful trading day 💰💰💰
USD/JPY Trend Today - Further Downward?🔔🔔🔔 USD/JPY news:
👉The USD/JPY pair continues its downward trend for the second consecutive day, edging closer to the multi-month low reached last week following Trump's warning to Japan about the weak yen. Additionally, rising expectations of further interest rate hikes by the Bank of Japan (BoJ) and a broader risk-off sentiment are bolstering demand for the safe-haven JPY.
👉Market consensus is strengthening around the likelihood of the BoJ tightening its monetary policy further, supporting elevated Japanese government bond (JGB) yields and reinforcing the yen’s strength.
👉As Tuesday’s Asian session begins, USD/JPY remains steady after Monday’s 0.74% decline. Weak US economic data, along with the imposition of tariffs on Mexico, Canada, and China starting March 4, keep the US dollar under pressure against most G7 currencies. The pair is currently trading at 148.85.
Personal opinion:
👉Momentum is still tilted to the downside, as described by RSI (2H) about to enter the overbought zone. Be careful with this because there may be a reversal to the upside, before continuing the downtrend. So watch the price well to enter a Sell order
Analysis:
👉Based on important resistance - support levels combined with trend lines and SMA to come up with a suitable strategy.
Plan:
🔆 Price Zone Setup:
👉Buy USD/JPY 149.85 – 150.00
❌SL: 150.5 | ✅TP: 149.30 – 148.70 – 1.47.50
FM wishes you a successful trading day 💰💰💰
NZD/USD Trend Today - Further Downward?NZD/USD news:
👉The New Zealand dollar (NZD) is losing ground against the US dollar (USD) amid growing concerns over the escalating trade conflict between the United States and China, the world’s two largest economies.
👉On the USD side, weaker-than-expected US economic data on the manufacturing sector, released on Monday, could limit the greenback’s gains and provide some support to the pair. The US ISM Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) fell to 50.3 in February from 50.9 previously, missing the market forecast of 50.5.
👉Looking ahead, the NZD could continue to face downward pressure in the long term.
Personal opinion:
👉NZD/USD is forming a Bearish Pennant pattern, which is likely to remain oversold. Therefore, consider a reasonable decision to place a Sell order
Analysis:
👉Based on the price action and the importance of the fibo combined with SMA to come up with a suitable strategy
Plan:
🔆 Set up the price zone:
👉Sell NZD/USD 0.5630 – 0.5640
❌SL: 0.5690 | ✅TP: 0.5590 – 0.5540 –0.5500
FM wishes you a successful trading day 💰💰💰
AUD/USD Trend Today - Continue to Fall?🔔🔔🔔AUD/USD news:
👉Trade continues to play a significant role in currency markets, with risk-sensitive currencies like the Australian Dollar under pressure as tariff disputes escalate. The White House maintains a 10% tariff on Chinese goods, which could negatively affect the Australian economy, given that China is its largest export partner. A slowdown in Chinese demand may weaken Australian commodity exports, putting downward pressure on the AUD.
👉Domestically, an anticipated rise in Australian Retail Sales may provide some support for the currency. Consumer spending, as reflected in Retail Sales data, increased by 0.3% in January after a 0.1% decline in December.
👉Meanwhile, the US Dollar is facing headwinds as market expectations grow that the Federal Reserve may restart its monetary easing cycle in June. According to the CME FedWatch tool, the probability of a Fed rate cut in June has risen to 87%, up from 69% a week ago.
Personal opinion:
👉Tariff policies remain the main influence that could cause the AUD to underperform the USD.
👉However, the US 10-year bond yield fell and the DXY fell for the second consecutive day, which could cause the AUD/USD to recover slightly. But overall, the downtrend is still maintained in the short term.
Analysis:
👉SBased on important resistance - support and Fibonacci levels combined with trend lines and SMA to come up with a suitable strategy
Plan:
🔆 Price Zone Setup:
👉Sell AUD/USD 0.6230 - 0.6240
❌SL: 0.6275 | ✅TP: 0.6190 - 0.6150 -0.6110
FM wishes you a successful trading day 💰💰💰
SIDEWAY waiting for news this week⭐️Smart investment, Strong finance
⭐️GOLDEN INFORMATION:
As a result, investors turned to bullion for safety, driving prices toward the $2,900 mark. Meanwhile, the US 10-year Treasury yield dropped two basis points to 4.176%, its lowest level since December 2024.
Commenting on the economy, St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem acknowledged steady economic growth but cautioned that recent data indicate potential downside risks.
⭐️Personal comments NOVA:
Continue in correction phase - gold price under selling pressure below 2900. Sideway and waiting for important news this week
⭐️SET UP GOLD PRICE:
🔥 BUY GOLD zone: $2851 - $2853 SL $2846
TP1: $2860
TP2: $2870
TP3: $2880
🔥 SELL GOLD zone: $2898 - $2900 SL $2905
TP1: $2890
TP2: $2880
TP3: $2870
⭐️Technical analysis:
Based on technical indicators EMA 34, EMA89 and support resistance areas to set up a reasonable SELL order.
⭐️NOTE:
Note: Nova wishes traders to manage their capital well
- take the number of lots that match your capital
- Takeprofit equal to 4-6% of capital account
- Stoplose equal to 2-3% of capital account
bnb sell midterm"🌟 Welcome to Golden Candle! 🌟
We're a team of 📈 passionate traders 📉 who love sharing our 🔍 technical analysis insights 🔎 with the TradingView community. 🌎
Our goal is to provide 💡 valuable perspectives 💡 on market trends and patterns, but 🚫 please note that our analyses are not intended as buy or sell recommendations. 🚫
Instead, they reflect our own 💭 personal attitudes and thoughts. 💭
Follow along and 📚 learn 📚 from our analyses! 📊💡"
NZD/USD Sell Setup – Cup & Handle Pattern Confirmed**📉 NZD/USD Sell Setup – Cup & Handle Pattern Confirmed! 🚀**
NZD/USD is showing a **Cup & Handle pattern**, with **EMA50 confirming a strong sell signal**. This setup suggests potential downside movement.
### **🔹 Trade Details:**
✅ **Sell Entry:** **0.56050**
✅ **Stop Loss:** **0.56650** (60 pips above entry)
### **📊 Take Profit Levels:**
- **TP1:** **0.55650** (40 pips down)
- **TP2:** **0.55250** (80 pips down)
- **TP3:** **0.54850** (120 pips down – final target)
### **📌 Trade Strategy:**
- **EMA50 confirms the bearish trend** – strong sell confirmation.
- **Proper risk management is key** – use stop loss to protect capital.
- **Monitor price action** – if momentum stays strong, TP2 and TP3 could be reached.
🚨 **Trade Setup is Active! Follow your risk management plan and execute wisely!** 📉🔥
USD/CAD Forming a Double Top Pattern?🔔🔔🔔 USD/CAD news:
👉USD/CAD is forming a traditional double top pattern and the price is right at the neckline
👉USD/CAD RSI (1H) is in control of the sellers
👉DXY is entering the overbought zone with no signs of reversal
👉Trendline shows signs of breaking
Personal opinion:
👉The above signals show that USD/CAD is likely to decline in the short term and retest the support zone of 1.435
Analysis:
👉Based on the trendline combined with resistance - support levels and SMA to come up with a suitable strategy
Plan:
🔆 Set up the price zone:
👉 Sell USD/CAD 1.4410 - 1.4420
❌SL: 1.4465 | ✅TP: 1.4360 – 1.4330 – 1.4290
FM wishes you a successful trading day 💰💰💰
$SPOT the overvalued stock..Be real.. I’m an Apple Music/ Apple applications guy. This stock just seems a little too bloated for me. I’d like to see a retrace to that gap up, this market is volatile and this thing can move hardbody either direction. I’d take my chances with a short for about 50 days out, $560 is the target. I got a bearish rising wedge forming possibly here and some FIB retrace and Elliot Waves. Very expensive premiums as well. Have fun.
WsL
THE ROAD TO 68K BTC.P/USDT 4 HOUR In this idea I expand upon my previous idea posted in December on the 8th. The previous idea showed the rudimentary course we would take according to the formation set of Ascending scallops.
In this chart I outline the key supports, resistance, and the projected bottom point we will bounce from to head back up.
Seems we have fallen from a large scale rising wedge and are now inside of descending broadening wedge. This is all in line with my previous idea and is moving as expected. We do not have long to go before we reach our bottom target if we do in fact move as projected.
Only time will tell, Happy Hunting - TND
Gold trend today European and American trading session🔔🔔🔔 Gold news:
👉Gold prices saw a slight increase on Monday, driven by a weaker US Dollar. Expectations of another Federal Reserve rate cut put pressure on the USD, which in turn boosted XAU/USD. Additionally, concerns over Trump’s proposed tariffs and the potential for a global trade conflict added to gold’s appeal.
👉The US Dollar also faced downward pressure due to a strong rebound in the crypto market, led by Bitcoin (BTC), after Trump instructed the Presidential Working Group on Sunday to advance plans for a Crypto Strategic Reserve, which will include Bitcoin, Ethereum (ETH), XRP, Solana (SOL), and Cardano (ADA).
👉A broad decline in the US Dollar allowed gold prices to recover after suffering significant losses in the previous two trading sessions. Meanwhile, the Euro (EUR) strengthened as Europe intensified its diplomatic efforts to resolve the Ukraine conflict, further weighing on the USD and supporting the USD-denominated gold price.
Personal opinion:
👉Gold price will recover to the 2890 area, then there will be a technical decline to the 2934 area before continuing the uptrend. Because there is currently no strong news for gold to break through this area.
👉Note: any move on President Trump's tariff policy will be considered first, so pay attention to this related news for better trading
Analysis:
👉Based on trend lines and EMA combined with important resistance - support levels to come up with a suitable strategy
Plan:
🔆 Price Zone Setup:
👉Sell Gold 2887 – 2890
❌SL: 2895 | ✅TP: 2883– 2877 – 2870
👉Buy Gold 2833 – 2835
❌SL: 2827 | ✅TP: 2839– 2844 – 2850
FM wishes you a successful trading day 💰💰💰
Gold short term recovery - downtrend⭐️Smart investment, Strong finance
⭐️GOLDEN INFORMATION:
Gold prices (XAU/USD) start the week on a strong footing, rebounding further from Friday’s three-week low near $2,833–2,832. Despite US inflation data aligning with expectations, traders remain confident that the Federal Reserve will implement two quarter-point rate cuts by year-end. Additionally, renewed selling pressure on the US Dollar supports the appeal of the non-yielding yellow metal.
⭐️Personal comments NOVA:
Gold price recovers in short term, sellers are dominating, retesting liquidity zone 2883
⭐️SET UP GOLD PRICE:
🔥 BUY GOLD zone: $2832 - $2834 SL $2827
TP1: $2840
TP2: $2850
TP3: $2960
🔥 SELL GOLD zone: $2883 - $2885 SL $2890
TP1: $2875
TP2: $2868
TP3: $2860
⭐️Technical analysis:
Based on technical indicators EMA 34, EMA89 and support resistance areas to set up a reasonable SELL order.
⭐️NOTE:
Note: Nova wishes traders to manage their capital well
- take the number of lots that match your capital
- Takeprofit equal to 4-6% of capital account
- Stoplose equal to 2-3% of capital account
Gold📌 **Sell:**
✔ In short-term timeframes (M1, M5, M15), both MACD and Stochastic indicate overbought conditions and a potential downward correction.
✔ The M30 timeframe is still in an uptrend, but a pullback to the downside is possible.
🎯 **Conclusion:**
Success rate for selling: ✅ **70%** (more reliable than buying in the short term).
📌 **Strategy:** Short-term selling with a tight stop-loss and a corrective target towards lower support levels.
📌 **Buy:**
✔ In H1 and H4 timeframes, signs of a trend reversal are emerging, but MACD has not yet given a solid confirmation.
✔ If MACD turns bullish on H1 and Stochastic exits oversold territory, buying will be a safer option.
🎯 **Conclusion:**
Success rate for buying: ✅ **55%** (higher risk, requiring more confirmation).
📌 **Strategy:** Wait for MACD confirmation on H1, then enter a buy position upon resistance breakout.
🚀 **Final Recommendation:**
🔹 Enter short-term sell positions in lower timeframes with a tight stop-loss and proper risk management.
🔹 Wait for a confirmed buy signal on H1 and H4, as MACD has not yet turned fully bullish.
🚀 **Short-term selling (scalping) is more probable**, but additional confirmation is needed for a buy position.
### **Suggested Targets Based on Timeframes & MACD + Stochastic Analysis**
🔴 📉 **Sell Targets:**
Considering overbought conditions in lower timeframes and a potential downward correction, the best sell targets based on different timeframes are:
✅ 📌 **First Target:** 2850 (Short-term support in M5 & M15)
✅ 📌 **Second Target:** 2842 (Key support in M30)
✅ 📌 **Third Target:** 2830 - 2825 (Strong support in H1, aligning with the moving average)
🛑 **Stop Loss for Sell Positions:**
🔹 **2862** (Breakout of the current resistance in M15 & M30)
🔹 **2868** (If the price reaches this level, the trend may reverse)
---
🟢 📈 **Buy Targets:**
A **full confirmation from MACD in H1 and H4** is required for a buy setup. However, if the price rebounds from the **2830 support zone**, the following targets are expected:
✅ 📌 **First Target:** 2865 (Initial resistance in H1)
✅ 📌 **Second Target:** 2880 - 2890 (Strong resistance zone in H4)
✅ 📌 **Third Target:** 2915 (Long-term target if resistance levels are broken)
🛑 **Stop Loss for Buy Positions:**
🔹 **2825** (If this level is broken, the downtrend is likely to continue)
🚀 **Suggested Strategy:**
📌 **Short-term sell (scalping) from 2857**, targeting **2850 and 2842**, with a **stop loss at 2862**.
📌 **Buy if confirmed at 2830 - 2825**, targeting **2865 and 2880**, with a **stop loss at 2825**.
🔍 **Important:** Before entering positions, confirm with **trading volume and candlestick patterns in higher timeframes**. 🚀
Downward momentum, downtrend next week, XAU ✍️ NOVA hello everyone, Let's comment on gold price next week from 03/3/2025 - 03/07/2025
🔥 World situation:
US President Donald Trump confirmed that 25% tariffs on Mexican and Canadian goods will take effect next week on March 4. Meanwhile, the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, the Core PCE Price Index, signaled continued progress toward the central bank’s 2% target.
Following the data, expectations for further Fed policy easing grew. According to Prime Market Terminal, the Fed is anticipated to cut rates by 70 basis points this year, with investors betting on the first reduction in June.
🔥 Identify:
Breaking the trend, gold continues to maintain a downtrend
🔥 Technically:
Based on the resistance and support areas of the gold price according to the H4 frame, NOVA identifies the important key areas as follows:
Resistance: $2876, $2903, $2956
Support : $2810, $2773
🔥 NOTE:
Note: Nova wishes traders to manage their capital well
- take the number of lots that match your capital
- Takeprofit equal to 4-6% of capital account
- Stoplose equal to 2-3% of capital account
- The winner is the one who sticks with the market the longest
BTC - Bigger Picture of Liquidity Collection RoadmapExpanding on my last idea focusing on the first move in this sequence, here is a bigger picture of this idea and I will explain in detail how I arrive to this.
1. The market is always going to absorb liquidity.
We know this. We also know that since Dec 2022 Bitcoin has been on a steady climb up allowing for lots of long positions to open and stay open. What this creates is a lot of absorbable liquidity in the form of long position stop losses. Further more, the dominance of leverage is very high in crypto, therefor these stop loss orders are “leveraged sell orders”. This is the “fuel” that can be used to explain the possibility of a move of this magnitude.
In other words, the orders are already in place in the chart; the adverse of traders decisions via leveraged position stop losses.
2. We can identify (2) main trendlines that explains why Bitcoin has been struggling so much around these zones. Price tends to break above and below these diagonal trendlines, trading sideways in a diagonal fashion - until there is enough “fear” or justification to allow the trendline to play itself out.
The first trendline I design for you in my previous idea. This takes Bitcoin to a zone with several confluences. (1) A Volume Profile support, (2) The bottom of a bearish trendline, and (3) The absorption of a mass amount of liquidity located from the current price to that zone.
The second trendline, which you can apply the same validation methods I pointed out in my previous idea (duplicating the trendline and placing it infinitely at different areas on the chart and observing price respecting the angle), has a bottom of $7,000.
Now this Uber low may seem extraordinarily unrealistic, but there is again, a mass amount of liquidity located in those low zones that the market wants to absorb.
3. I lay out here a corrective wave sequence that would allow all of this liquidity to be absorbed.
The US Dollar on the higher timeframes shows a bearish retest of a major breakdown. With all of the negative news and geopolitical tension with the US, both technically and fundamentally this points in the direction of a falling US dollar relative to other global currencies.
4. Ultimately this is good for Bitcoin.
I present this idea for several reasons, most importantly, what I can see happening (assuming this does occur) is that many holders and investors will sell at very low prices in extreme fear that Bitcoin will go to zero, when in fact it would just be a liquidity grab prior to a true 3-5 year bull run on Bitcoin as the US Dollar loses strength.
Of course being ill prepared and selling at those extreme lows would be catastrophic for investors and traders.
So if anything, I hope this serves you with the possibility explained in detail, and in the event you see this occur, to not panic and not sell. To do the exact opposite of what the majority would do and BUY into those extreme fear zones.
Happy trading and stay safe.
For anyone wanting to argue that it’s not possible or showing their confidence that it would never happen; please understand there is no harm is looking at potential scenarios and this isn’t an ego contest about who is right or wrong. It’s ideally about looking out for each other and sharing our work, knowledge, and experience to collectively succeed in understanding this challenging market.
People may also like to point out that I’ve been speaking about this occurring for roughly a year, and have been wrong - however the timing of such events doesn’t mean it’s “wrong”. If the chart demonstrates a possibility, it remains.