$spx $3kwe may be a little late to the move, but we're officially bearish.
key deviation and eventual rejection at our S/R pivot.
this feels like the start of 5 more waves down
Shortspx500
will inflation and recession coexist for a long term #SPX500Cathy Wood said early this week that US economy was in recession and she confirmed that conclusion after last week's nonfarm payroll data released.
so now how the Fed and Market are going to reflect their views?
Fed: 1. speed up the interest rate hiking before the recession get into the downward spiral (before end of 2022).
2, slowing down the hiking or on hold for a while for more convincing evidences.
Market: 1, Both interest rate hiking or confirmation of recession will lead the SPX500 to south until the recession reach its bottom (according to Cathy Wood when new disruptive renovations showed its market values )
2, if recession speeding up faster than everyone's expectation ( unemployment data + CPI + PCE ) then market may expect Fed to lower interest rate and saving the economy then SPX500 will go north.
so far SPX500 still in a bear rally trend. Let's see tonight's CPI data.
SHORT #SPX500 @4214 till next FED meetingOANDA:SPX500USD
i just found the current price is the 50% retreat from highest price point to the lowest price point this year.
61.8% retreat from second high price point to the lowest price point of this year.
so technically the future movement of SPX500 will do a correctness to 3800 - 3900 price point with next 3-4 weeks.
So my trade logic now changed from bear market to neutral now .
I am looking for a lower price point to buy ( LONG SPX500 )around September Fed meeting.
short S&P500???-supply zone
-resistance
-fake breakout
-possible target= right shoulder???
you need buyers for short!!!
STILL IN A BEAR MARKET!!!
SHORT S&P500A financial crisis is a term that covers various realities whose common denominator is an abrupt fall in dematerialized economic activity. Currency crises, banking crises and stock market crises are thus financial crises.
SPX SHORT OPPORTUNITY (DAILY):Rising wedge formation for SPX, stocks due to fall into to major support zone.
I do see SPX breaking out to the downside, respecting the trend-line on the RSI.
Road down to 1850 starts very shortly!Just expressing my view that the road down to 1850 will start in the next week (two weeks max) and will take around 2 months. Expected ETA by end of second week of October.
Short SP500 piggiesRejected backtest of ascending triangle all week, rr with shorts. Stop loss above trendline.
Falling below 50DMA (Green line) and losing it is good news for bears! Piggies oink oink, ready for slaughterhouse.
LONG TERM VIEW on SPX (Originally published 6-8 months ago)At the time, I was advising to take profit ... The SPX is re-entering its "wide" long term uptrend pushed by Quantitative easing and negative interest rates. The stock market can probably go up to the yellow line before going back down. The Lehman crisis was not solved but postponed by Monetary policies. We will have the cash out someday for all the fake money that has been created over the last decade. You can EXPECT THE SPX TO LAND AT 1600 level in the next 18 - 24 months.
GET READY !!
Long BONDS? Bond futures strength could spell S&P 500 weaknessThe recent upside in the bond market has been in tandem with the upside in the S&P 500. The move higher in bonds is largely due to the lower rates in monetary policy. Which should not directly affect long-term bonds by much but they have had some effect. Over the past three months, Bonds have gone down while the S&P 500 has made a lot of gains.
The 30-year bonds should rebound at the previous broken high which should hold as support. Max, the move may go down to the 50% retrace level based on the Fib retracement before rebounding. Till the retrace opens up we could see more upside in the equity market. The long extended wicks near support suggest the bond buyers coming in a pop above the recent high into all-time highs could crush the S&P 500.
There is a chance that the bond market continues to drop through the support levels, the opening upside for the equity market. This is the tail end of bond investments that have grown exponentially over the last year.
Correlations in markets are pivotal to identifying the current economic cycle on a longer-term perspective.
Does the short play look a bit more appealing these days?Seems we may be running into a trend line here shortly. It is ATH so cant be too sure. Could pop up out of this flag at any point, given the momentum.
GDX - Ready to pop with BTC , while SPY fallsGDX, SPY, and VIXY all tell similar story.
Things are topped out. Gold, Bitcoin, and shorting SPY will be the best (if not the only) options for alpha in the upcoming market.
If you are long SPY or any equities, be careful chasing that last 10% because a 20%+ drop is below you.
Long - GDX, MARA, VIXY, BTCUSD, GBTC.
9 Year Falling Wedge - Sh*t going to hit the fan soonA falling wedge of this magnitude is rare in my opinion. This level for the VIX is also great for GBTC and Bitcoin.
9 years show this wedge is falling to lowest levels ever - Right before presidential race, qualitative easing, negative interest, and ballooning corporate debt.
Comes to a point February 2020 but could take off before. But it should retest $30+ in my opinion.
I am using Call options on Nov 1 and Nov 8 currently. $16.5 Call for $0.30 each ($30 bucks). Cheap for roughly 1:7 (risk/reward) ratio, make $500 off $70.
Shows a buy on the Daily today - But if you want to watch for more time, look for another entry in 4-8 weeks back at this level.
I will be getting Calls for March - June depending on how chart looks.
S&P500 Close to ATH - Short SPX500, Long BTCUSDSource
cointelegraph.com
This might be a triple top in S&P500.
From what I see, we are very slow to break ATH in S&P500. Once that happens I think we only get slightly above 3025 in SPX500 (Maybe up to 3100), which may coincide with Tom Lee's prediction. Basically, more things look good in all markets risk is lowered in other assets like bitcoin.
I will be buying Puts (options) on SPX500 as we get higher, keeping eye on 3050 and scaling in. Another good option is Credit Spread for this scenario.
You can also short, but I like Puts or Credit Spreads best.
This is all Bullish for Bitcoin.
Source for Options Strategies (Bull Credit Spread, Bear Credit Spread, all other options, probabilities of success auto calculated)
Enter symbol or search by strategy
www.barchart.com
SPY SHORT -Daily- Resistance max at 303SPY SHORT - Resistance max at 303
> Graph and indicators
> From top to bottom :
MACD
- Histogram shrink
- MACD crossing sell signal
- Resistance max at 303
- Support at 287
Graph
- Resistance max at 303
- Support at 287
- Candle : Hangingman Jully 15 = REVERSAL
CCI pointing down
RSI can not go high 3 test <70
Full Stock crossing at 96
All the best!
Waz-
SELL SnP500 ? Lets try. Good reversal sell patternSell order at price 2852
StopLoss 2860
TakeProfit 2808
Risk-Reward-Ratio 5.3
Why open position
- breakout last high and stay near it
- sell horizontal level at 2853
- angle level to sell
Continue below 2820If SP moves below 2820 after the opening and closes below 2820 then more to come.
I’m not 100% convinced this is the big kahuna burger that some are expecting but as long as I’m in the right direction who cares…
Quantitative tightening called the 27 June 2018 sell offThe red line is the federal reserve balance sheet, total assets. Most of the rallies since the January high have been during weeks where the fed has temporarily stopped shrinking its balance sheet. Another shrink was disclosed late on 26 June. The fact that the sell off occurred after the disclosure, rather than the shrink itself suggests investors are trading the announcement, rather than the liquidity reduction itself.
5 wave structure in the S&P500Guideline of Equality, in which wave 1 is equal to wave 5.
Although Wave 5 of 5 could fail to make a new high, so correction might come sooner.
Load up in Gold and yen. Short USD.
Short idea for USDJPY linked.
possible 5 wave structure in the S&P 500It would seem as we are about to complete the 5th wave of a 5 wave structure on the S&P500.
Given that we could state we are in wave 4 of wave 5, we could expect a wave 5 of 5.
This could be finished at the confluence area of the 1.27 and 1 fibonacci in 2493 - 2527.
Wave 5 of 5 could also fail to make a new high and go short way before.
In conclusion, it could be a good idea to stock up in gold or start getting ready for a short in the S&P 500. It could take a while though.
If we follow the guideline of Equality (in which wave 1 is equal to wave 5) we could be seen this in October - November.
It is possible within the Elliott Wave framework for the wave 5 to be incomplete, therefore we could be seeing it sooner.
