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Shortsqueeze

SPY in a downtrend? Where's Top? THE ANSWERS!Chart: SPY 2 week TF. The answers are both in the chart and below. SPOILER: If SPY rallies to $800, the downtrend is still valid. Interesting: A downtrend is defined as LOWER lows (LL) and LOWER highs (LH). Uptrend? as HL's and HH's. ** A single HIGHER high (HH) invalidates a downtrend trend in that TF. Trend is relative to TF and can be valid in one TF but invalid in another. A HH is established when the previous HH is superseded by a new candle's _____________ (fill in the blank). Answer: It's the new candles **close** that takes out a previous high, **not** its own high. Once that condition has been met the new High is promoted to the status of HH. Important: SPY's 1 week down trend was invalidated when the HH of $393.16 established on the 28th of June, 2022 was taken out by the close of $395.09 on Friday, July 18th, 2022. Chart: 2 week downtrend is still valid and the current 2W candle closes in 5 days. (8/12/22) The trend remains valid if that close is below the previous HH of $417.44 established on June 2nd 2022. Very important: *** The high of (this) week is not relevant to the 2W downtrend. Only the candle Close on Friday (8/12/22). Implication (not opinion): If SPY rallies to $420, the downtrend is still valid. If SPY rallies to $500, the downtrend is still valid. If SPY rallies to $600, the downtrend is still valid. If SPY rallies to $800, the downtrend is still valid. ... *as long as* price falls back to $417.44 by EOW. The point: ... idk. Ask me in 2 weeks. Where is "top"?: It's the price where the last bear goes long (aka covers). In other words when there is not a single buyer left. ** Starting with Homma Munehisa, (1755) The Fountain of Gold—The Three Monkey Record of Money. to the more contemporary: Al Brooks, (2009) "Trading Price Action Trends" .. and everyone in between.
AMEX:SPY
by gb50k
1
History always repeats!Back when I posted the 'accumulation on AMC' I though the fractal between January 2021 and June 2021 was just slanted. This would mean a clockwise rotation of the fractal. basically a skewed version of the fractal. Downward moves would be more extreme and sharp. Upwards move would look more like a consolidation. Consolidation would look like a slight down trend, following the angle at which the fractal is rotated. I was early when I thought August 3rd 2022 was may 26th 2021 on the fractal. It seems to me that today August 5th 2022 was May 13th 2021 on the fractal.
NYSE:AMCLong
by GuiltBeCrowned
8
SPY Rejection: FOMC in the next hourDespite being positive on the day, we saw earlier price get rejected on the upper resistance trend line of our longer term downward channel. The gap up today was interesting, but I am curious to see how this plays out following the Fed decision. Since we have been declining from ATH's, this upper resistance trend line has shown multiple instances of rapid downward movement because of the trendlines significance. Fed decision may fill the gap up we created this morning. See related links to see the fuller picture and downward channel on a daily time frame.
SP:SPXShort
by chartxzy
3
SPLIT DONE! Still Waiting for a clean break of the Doom DoritoBull Case remains, I am hopeful the Doom Dorito will finally break up First full week after the split next week. Multiple brokers from around the world have yet to deliver all shares saying that shares could take up to another 4-5 days to be delivered. FTDs have been increasing from June that are coming due now, will be interesting in seeing the next release on the 30th Borrow rate remains steady this weekend at 129% to over 300% according to Ortex. Technically it still seems like a massive 1.5 year spring is about to be sprung. If there is any other real world game changing announcement this week then it it can only add further pressure to breaking the Doom Dorito.
NYSE:GMELong
by testmuffin13
3
🔃✅💲Short term reversal for $ETH confirmed! #Ethereum 🚀🔜✅This chart is meant to show the confirmation of the reversal in the $ETH price. This is shown on the BYBIT:ETHUSDT chart, because of the higher (more speculation based) trading volume. It is currently showing strong confidence in traders for #Ethereum. As shown, during the downtrend that $ETH has been in, there were multiple closes below the lower Bollinger band. These each signaled further $ETH price suppression at the time. After finding a possible bottom, then ranging sideways in what is now the current range of support, $ETH price finally broke out above the top of the range. This is very likely due to a short squeeze, however I believe that it being in conjunction with the recent bounce in $BTC and other cryptos, has allowed for confidence to be restored in $ETH price growth(at least for the short-term). Breaking above the range, with very tightened Bollinger bands, $ETH price managed to close above the upper Bollinger band multiple times. This is the first time this has happened on the daily chart since we had one (very brief) close above it, in October last year. To me this signals a (possibly very strong) reversal for #Etherem. Going forward, I would personally expect a move up to the current strong resistance level around $2,100-$2,200, then a retest of the previous range-high/resistance, flipped to support. After that would be when I would assess everything to see if this confirmation truly has the merit that I personally believe it has. Any strong close above $2,500 would be a very strong confirmation of this theory, and a close below $1,100 would possibly invalidate this whole theory. **This is all my opinion, based on chart data. This is not financial advice.**
Long
by DoozerInvest
AVOIDING THE BULL TRAP -2000+ ideas published -15+ years experience in markets -Professional chart break downs -Supply/Demand Zones -TD9 counts / combo review -Key S/R levels -No junk on my charts -Frequent updates -Covering FX/crypto/US stocks -before/after analysis -24/7 uptime so constant updates 🎁Please hit the like button and 🎁Leave a comment to support our team! BTCUSD H1: 20% correction warning distribution(SL/TP)(NEW) IMPORTANT NOTE: speculative setup. do your own due dill. use STOP LOSS. don't overleverage. 🔸 Summary and potential trade setup ::: BTCUSD 1hours chart review ::: updated/revised outlook ::: distribution in range / weak chart ::: cycle low later July/August 2022 ::: weakness will last for 4-8 weeks ::: LOG SCALE chart ::: not a great looking chart ::: rejected/booted from 20 000 usd ::: S/R was re-tested produced WEAK bounces ::: final BOUNCE possible 17/18 000 usd ::: also noteworthy sequence of lower highs ::: recommended strat: SHORT from 21 / 22 000 USD ::: final TP BEARS is 17 / 18 000 USD ::: 20%+ correction possible next ::: 4-8 weeks in July 2022 ::: right now limited upside in this market ::: position traders should wait for ::: better entry prices later after ::: BULLS higher risk BUY near 17/18 000 USD ::: not a great setup for BULLS though ::: recommended strategy: SHORT SELL RIPS/ RALLIES ::: TP BEARS is +20% gains - near 17 000 USD ::: BULLS stay out until correction is over ::: SWING TRADE: SHORT/HOLD IT ::: correction run not over yet ::: good luck traders! ::: BUY and get paid. period. 🔸 Supply/Demand Zones ::: N/A ::: N/A 🔸 Other noteworthy technicals/fundies ::: TD9 /Combo update: N/A ::: Sentiment mid-term: BEARS/CORRECTION ::: Sentiment short-term: RANGE/MIXED RISK DISCLAIMER: Trading Crypto, Futures , Forex, CFDs and Stocks involves a risk of loss. Please consider carefully if such trading is appropriate for you. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Always limit your leverage and use tight stop loss.
Short
by Bitohefinance
Don't sleep on NVAXWhat I am seeing here is the most sophisticated accumulation setup I have come across in the market - and CO has been doing this for NVAX cyclically every pandemic in the past. The company focuses on stopping the propagation of viruses, however, CO spins it by propagating demand (like a virus) and absorbing supply which they injected intentionally at strategic stages downstream! This is nice, nested markup activation. Sorry if its difficult to see clearly, that is for me. I will post a followup idea where I zoom in and discuss the projected most likely scenarios. But here is the bigger picture that I wanted to present as surprisingly high probability targets/critical levels to watch in the coming weeks. I used MRNA epic run in summer 2021as a proxy, as well as a general method that I developed to make such predictions on Markup phases. - Minimum Target by August is 119 (given that 79 can be breached in time - will discuss the time component in followup post). - Sweet spot/target spot I'm expecting by mid September is 217-229 - If they invoke chaos w.r.t. demand and break above 171 by Jul 25th, then max target by mid-Septemer is ~350 (when such a squeeze occurs as it did last Jan, and it is highly likely is what we are about to see, establishing a point target is nearly impossible so the max target range 300-400). *** NVAX activated markup on Friday July 1st. There is a nested activation that will trigger if it gets above 63-65 by July 11th-18th, and there is an carryover activation level at 171 which regained the capacity for activation on 3/21/2022 - for it to be reactivated, the price must break above it by 7/25/2022. Smuggled between these activation levels, there are price (%) doubling and period halving bifurcation levels where the price will gap if hit. These require a massive squeeze, which NVAX is more than capable of currently - these levels are at 65, 83, and 217. The next supply/demand equilibrium point is July 5th, so good chance they will announce approval before the bell tomorrow. Once time crosses the equilibrium point there are windows where the activation and bifurcation levels remain in effect. So if price keeps up with time or exceeds it, here is what I expect: - Gap up Tuesday to trigger 63-65 and then continue to resistance at 79 by July 7th-8th - After rejection from 79, it will pullback and test 65 for support, if that holds and it bounces I'd expect the 2nd wave of the squeeze to kick in and drive it above 79. They have the bifurcation set in place at 83 to gap it toward 100 once it hits 83. - From there it gets tricky, because there is another nested markup activator that I haven't even discussed because its beyond the scope of this post, it was a distribution phase beginning in Jan 2022.. my theory is that it serves the purpose of kicking in the 3rd and final phase of the squeeze once 83 is breached. It is the only way I see this getting over 119. There is an attractor at 106 that could allow them to re-accumulate there in order to breach 119. If they make it to 131 it will begin a rally similar to what MRNA saw in 2021. For NVAX, it looks like above 131 will open the door for 171, then gap to 217-229, and finally run to 300-400 where they will begin the final distribution pertaining to Covid-19. When its all said and done this will make its way back down to ~20 in 2023, likely even lower by 2024.
NASDAQ:NVAXLong
by JerryManders
9
Silver Breaking SupportFor a few weeks now I have been watching the key Support of 19.42 on AMEX:SLV which corresponds to 21.00 on Silver Futures COMEX:SI1! : This is a long term Weekly Timeframe support established by the COVID Low through February 2021 High. I made a video about this High then because around the financial media there was a meme encouraging retail traders to BUY SILVER to create a SHORT SQUEEZE and stick it to the hedge funds (see Video link below)! My video went back through news article history to show that this same meme had been used to dupe Precious Metal Bugs into false breakouts 4 out of the 5 times in the last two decades. Q1 2021 was a good time to piggy back on the "Short Squeeze" meme and resurface this old one in Silver. Well, now the record shows that 5 out of 6 times the "Short Squeeze Silver" meme has failed as Silver continues to trade lower 17 months after the fact. This is why it is important to be highly skeptical of mainstream financial media. Often times (in my conspiracy theory) they are put out by PR departments of the funds themselves to manipulate market sentiment in some firm(s) favor. With this break of support Silver enters what I call "The Valley of Risk" where holders are faced with unknown losses as Supports become less clear. I am forecasting a fall into the mid-teens over the next few months. I have expressed this thesis in Put Spreads through the end of the year.
AMEX:SLVShort
by norok
7