Getting In On The Pullback. This Screams Short SqueezeBeen watching this one for a while. I plan on getting in on the pullback, but this could hit the 8-9 dollar mark. I'm watching, and waiting. This first uptick was the first indicator.
Shortsqueeze
$M Macys Testing $9.50 Resistance - Potential Short Squeeze$M Near term short squeeze potential - 45% of float outstanding is short
Close above $9.50 today for confirmation
Near term target $12.00
Educational, not investment advice.
Shortsqueeze is about to happen / PT will be 10 -15 USDAfter a consolidation between 2,80 and 2,20 we are ready for a next leg up, with some catalysts in the pipeline (June 8th). A good FDA-News on monday will generate a parabolic shortsqueze scenario because of currently more than 25% short interest. PT could be between 10-15 USD.
Watching for possible blow-off top, then shorting into JulyAs my followers know, I've been mostly sitting in cash and silver waiting for sanity to return to this market. Y'all bought stocks, and all I bought was popcorn, and it turns out the joke's on me.
Here's how big the gap between price and fundamentals has gotten. On June 1, GDPNow reduced its Q2 GDP forecast to -52.8%. This is down over 10% in the last week. As stocks approach all-time highs, the US Congressional Budget Office forecasted a couple days ago that GDP over the next ten years will be about $7.9 trillion lower than previously forecast, and it may take 10 years for employment to return to pre-pandemic levels.
In corporate earnings, FactSet notes that the consensus estimate for 2020 SPX earnings per share has declined by 28.0% while $SPX price has decreased by only 6.2% since December 31. We are finally seeing a slowdown in downward estimate revisions, but it remains to be seen whether estimates have actually reached a bottom.
The forward 12-month P/E ratio for $SPX of 21.5 is at its highest level since January 2002, even as the risks are rising. We've added over $4 trillion in global corporate debt this year, even as credit rating agencies downgrade existing debt at an unprecedented pace. S&P Global has downgraded 247 issues in the last month and now has 1,287 on its potential downgrade list, surpassing the previous record of 1,028 from April 2009.
So what's driving the indexes upward? Three things: unprecedented speculation from zero-commission retail traders, Fed liquidity, and the hope of more stimulus from Congress. I definitely expect the disconnect between price and fundamentals to go away eventually, but the question is when it will happen and what the catalyst will be.
The combination of nationwide riots and technical resistance might cause at least a short-term pullback. We're now approaching some important resistance levels in both SPY and Nasdaq. SPY is approaching its top from March, and QQQ is approaching all-time highs. Generally I would expect a technical pullback from these levels and possibly the beginning of a big correction, and it seems like a lot of other traders are thinking along the same lines. We're currently seeing the largest futures net short position in SPY since 9/2015.
However, I've decided not to play this particular resistance level, because IMO the massive short interest creates the possibility of shorts getting crushed in a short squeeze. We've also entered a clearance area on the volume profile, which means there's not much resistance until we hit about 322. The 9/2015 high in short interest led to an 8% gain the following month. Only in the four months after that did SPY finally sell off 14%. It also seems possible that we'll get another Congressional stimulus package in the next month, including either another round of stimulus checks, or an infrastructure bill, or both.
Personally I am looking for the correction to start in late June or early July. In the last decade or two, June has been the last month of the bull market season, followed by seasonal weakness in July-September. June tends to be an especially strong month for tech stocks, and we're likely to see that pattern repeat this year. Waiting till July gives stimulus optimism and economic reopening optimism the opportunity to play themselves out, perhaps climaxing in a blow-off top as shorts get squeezed up to 322 ahead of the correction. Any parabolic move in SPY would be the signal to start shorting this market as we head into seasonal weakness in the summer.
What Put:Call Ratio Tells Us About SPY QQQHere is a chart of the put to call ratio when compared with NASDAQ's ETF, QQQ. When the line is at the bottom of the PC chart, that means market participants are net short. When at the top, they are net long.
I'm sure we've all heard the saying that market makers usually take the other side of the trade. This chart shows that this is a true.
When stocks are going up, the majority of retail traders are shorting the market. When the market goes down, the majority of retail traders are longing the market.
Right now we're in an extreme situation where the majority of retail traders are shorting the market and institutions are doing what they do best, hitting their stop losses and squeezing them out, essentially taking the free money on the table. When this is no longer profitable, the trend usually changes with a few exceptions (see March 2020). To look at it another way, institutions make money on retail trader's emotions which is specifically disbelief.
They say 90% of retail traders lose money trading the stock market. I believe this chart is evidence of that.
Breakout - ShortSqueeze $OPK COVID19-PLAYBreakout above 1,39 leads to a ShortSqueeze with testing previous hights at 2,99 !
Oil shorts getting squeezed ahead of May 19 contract expiry?Quite a few people are short the June crude oil futures contract going into contract expiry on May 19, but it looks to me like they're getting squeezed. Several reasons this is happening:
1) Supply destruction has been unprecedented, with shale producers bankrupted and output cuts by Russia and Saudi Arabia at maximum.
2) Gasoline demand has been surprisingly strong as scared consumers abandon mass transit in favor of driving their own vehicles.
3) EIA report seemed to show a surprise inventory draw on Wednesday (though if you dig into the numbers, the apparent draw was actually just an adjustment to last week's estimate).
4) The oil storage situation is not as bad as advertised.
5) The exchanges imposed a supply constraint on the number of available June futures contracts.
The chart is constructive, with oil prices having moved above some major moving averages with little sign of weakness. I picked up a few Exxon-Mobil calls as a speculative play ahead of contract expiration.
HOWEVER, this is a very short-term play. The crude inventory draw on the EIA report was an illusion, and there are currently 50 million barrels of Saudi crude on the water headed for the United States. I fully expect next Wednesday's inventory report to throw a wet blanket on this oil market and weaken prices.
Perfect bull trap setup on S&P 500Today we may see a perfect bull trap setup, making a new high while breaking the 61.80% fib level.
This bull trap should squeeze a lot of short positions out while comforting the bulls they're right pushing the market upward. If I'm right, both sides will get hurt by this setup.
Retest time?Seems like levels are close to the halfway mark in the Fib retracement. We're looking at a 27% rally from the low. Not sure why the rally has lasted this long and been so strong, it could be from a short squeeze...who knows. It has to end soon I would imagine.
We are heading into earnings with bad news ahead of us plus more bad economic news, so I anticipate the move down is coming soon. I just can't believe the market has completely priced everything in yet. Prove me wrong.
Short squeeze in play for BitcoinWhy would Bitcoin pump when everyone is convinced it is going to fall further? The answer is simple: when people expect Bitcoin to fall further, they place Short orders that can be liquidated if Bitcoin price rises to a certain level. When Short order hits a stop-loss or and gets liquidated, it is done so by placing a market Buy order, which lifts the price up. Usually traders place their stop orders slightly above the previous high, which provides them with confidence.
However, smart whales are aware of these stops and they know that when they move the price to a certain point, it will trigger stop-losses and will add more buying pressure. This is what we saw in play back on October 2019, and it can also be seen on lower time-frame today. Today’s surge is not due to the fact that Bitcoin has a good Long set-up, rather it had such an obvious Short set-up that it was seductive to liquidate all small traders and profit from the buying pressure which resulted from liquidation.
Be careful with Bitcoin , this is a huge game of speculation, and price is the most important variable here.
cup and handle non $TVIX 45 min chart $55 deep and when we break 360 could give it a $415 target for quick profits. Caution this is not an instrument to hold long term intraday gains 7.03 million shares in TVIX so very fast mover. Caution this is my opinion and not an everyday trading instrument please note that looking for quick profits as is low float
EU: Potential Short SqueezeCould the USD lose some momentum with preliminary job-loss claims coming?
Expected to see up to 2 million people claiming unemployment for March...
The FEDs last move to introduce unlimited QE and buying of corporate bonds could be showing a limited affect..
A short-squeeze could be coming - acting as a retracement for the drop that occurred from 1.1500
I entered long at 1.07750 - looking to take profit at or around 1.10650
-First level for bulls to break at 1.08100
I keep a pretty tight stop, so if price breaks and closes below 1.07700 I'll close position and continue short trend.
*trade at own risk
-Krecioch
Bullish on AMC stockBears have dramatically discounted this already over-discounted stock... Honestly I'd definitely look to buy anything below $4.60 (if you can!). I don't see these prices lasting long.
As with any stock that is bottoming, don't go all in thinking it's at a bottom and then panic sell because it drops (or goes up) 10 or 20 cents. That is exactly what caused this to keep dropping in the first place! You want to see a bottom form and a fast (or steady) move upward. Then wait for the dip and start buying at the support level or just above/below.
CRSP LONG breakout potentialCRSP got some attention a few months ago with the Netflix series "Unnatural Selection" in which it melted up for a while before crashing down on profit taking
As CRSP broke its minor downward trendline and came back down to a retest, a long position with a good reward to risk ratio can be entered with a tight stop.
Factors leading to the decision:
The recent downtrend has been broken after price recently bounced at a major support line
The 20ma was broken, pulling in moving-average traders off the side-lines
A recent low offers a perfect spot to put a logical technical stop
Price is now finishing a retracement after bouncing off recent highs, so we can avoid that pain by entering now that the retracement seems to be flattenting out
As always, respect a tight-stop. If it rips up, let it run and trail stops behind.
BTC Giant bull trapTo me 3 things are obvious:
1. The latest BTC spike is abnormal. It occurred for no apparent reason and coincided with bitfinex maintenance.
2. The spike came at a time when bulls are losing steam and someone could argue that it looks like a BIG FLASHING NEON SIGN urging them to re-enter the race.
3. Nothing defies nature's laws, and what goes up will come down.
Conclusion:
"What you don't know, won't hurt you, it'll kill you. Like if they tell you you're going to shower but they turn out not to be showers."
and since it seems that I do not know a lot about the recent events I decide to stay out of the market until things start to make any sense.
Is Beyond Meat Roasting the Bears?The bulls and the bears have taken their turns feasting on plant-based food maker Beyond Meat . First the bulls, then the bears … and now the bulls may be back.
BYND initially flew higher after its May 2019 IPO, ripping from $25 to over $220. It then fizzled out and crashed all the way back down into the $70s.
Buyers came back with an appetite in 2020 and drove it back over $100. The heavily-shorted stock soon formed a bullish flag and volatility began to fade. Back-to-back inside days occurred on February 5 and 6. That signaled its wild swings were calming down.
Technicians watch for this kind of pattern because breakouts usually follow price contractions. Since the initial move was higher, it created an opportunity for classic trend following to the upside.
The confirmation came the next session with a high-volume candle and BYND's highest close in February. That put some pressure on the bears and started squeezing the shares higher. Now they've got about two months until earnings to sweat it out.
$IRBT Expect A Short SqueezeYesterday we got the catalyst we were looking for from $IRBT - a solid earnings report. With 48% of the float short, we expect $IRBT to squeeze the shorts. Here are the highlights"
iRobot (NASDAQ:IRBT): Q4 Non-GAAP EPS of $0.69 in-line; GAAP EPS of $0.70 beats by $0.29.
Revenue of $426.78M (+10.9% Y/Y) beats by $10.83M.
Shares of iRobot (NASDAQ:IRBT) popped after the company hires a new CFO and reports Q4 EPS even above the highest estimate turned in by analysts.
Revenue was up 11% during the quarter and operating income came in at $16.6M vs. $29.8M a year ago. Tariff costs factored into the OI decline.
The company promoted VP of finance Julie Zeiler to take over the CFO position from Alison Dean.
As always, trade with caution and use protective stops.
Good luck to all!
Some unusual analysis just an individual stock - TESLANormally I just make macro index stuff, but today I decided to analyse TESLA stock... here is the picture...
TSLA target
Base on a weekly Gap up, the fast phase of run is in action. logically, it should go 1:1 and hits $16xx , however, from it's starting point of $176.99, 10x would be a great point of guessing, $1769.9!
do not guess top, it would be $17699 if the short squeeze continuous!
BTC- Rise- pullback- liftoffAlmost two months into the uptrend and,it seems that BTC is well into the green zone judging from the weekly timeframe.
Bitmex OI just hits 10 figures, but I want to see a little bit more volume.
Binance OI is rising steadily and long consistently hovers above 50% the past 30 days. We can assume the rise of OI coincides with the rising bullish sentiment.
Overall, volume is rising steadily across all exchanges over the past 30 days which validates the uptrend movement.
Ongoing shorts liquidation at the time of this writing...
I think BTC is due for another pullback to sub 9k area or it may attack 9.8k- 10.3k region, then retraces back to between 8.6k to sub 9k.
Mid -term outlook looks bright for BTC :)
$MNK A Buy On 56% Of The Float Short$MNK is up 40% this week after positive comments from the company's CFO. With a massive short position in the stock, we think this rally has further room to run.
The stock started rallying this week after Chief Financial Officer Bryan Reasons said at the J.P. Morgan Health Care Conference on Monday that the company could pay off its potential 2020 debt maturities, which is a "slightly over" $600 million, in cash. And regarding the dispute with the government over pricing for Acthar, he implied that he was optimistic regarding a favorable outcome, so there was no need to rush to settle. "Right now, we felt like the hearing went really well and we feel good about it," Reasons said, according to a transcript provided by FactSet. "So, we don't feel it's in our best interest to actually initiate the settlements." And regarding the opioid litigations, Chief Executive Mark Trudeau said he was "hopeful" that a resolution can be reached "sooner rather than later." The stock has more than doubled (up 110%) over the past three months, but is still way down 83% off its 52 week high of $27.33 a share.
As always, use protective stops and trade with caution.
Good luck to all!
$JMIA Going To Squeeze The Shorts With 82% Of Float Short$JMIA is on the verge of an epic short squeeze. While the shorts have been right on the money so far, we believe they have overstayed their welcome and are going to be forced to cover.
Yesterday's news:
Jumia (NYSE:JMIA) has named Kenneth Oyolla as its new chief commercial officer, replacing Diana Owusu-Kyereko, according to Business Standard sources.
Owusu-Kyereko was promoted to head Jumia Ghana under the loss-cutting reorganization process.
Oyolla joins from serving in a similar position at Industrial Promotion Services. His prior work history includes stints at Nokia and Unilever.
As always, use protective stops and trade with caution.
Good luck to all!
