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Shortsqueeze

Bitcoin April again, terminal shakeout, or bear winter?Good morning, traders. After that shakeout at the end of yesterday, price has not returned to our previous accumulation zone. The question now is are we going to drop further? At first glance, that certainly appears to be the most likely course of action, doesn't it? But there are a few things you should be watching just in case it does not materialize. If you caught last night's live stream, then you saw me look at the similarities between the point right before the April squeeze and our whole recent movement. I cannot take the credit for this as someone else mentioned it, but unfortunately I cannot find who it was, so if you know then go ahead and tag them below so others know. The left screen is our current movement while the right screen is April's movement. I have numbered the pattern's movements and we can see that price has acted very similar, complete with shorts reaching/nearing a new ATH. While I'm not saying this will definitely happen, as I am currently neutral on movement, what I am saying is that if you aren't watching to see if this potentially plays out, then you are adding significant risk to your trade. Notice in both instances that price retraced to the 23.6% level on a sharp drop after completing an ascending wedge. That drop landed price within the previous trading range. In the April movement, price then moved up to the 61.8% level prior to the squeeze, which is what we are watching for in the current movement. Also, as mentioned, in both instances shorts were reaching toward/creating a new ATH. Shorts are currently sitting at 38,576 while the ATH right before the April short squeeze was 40,719 - just a stone's throw away. The shorts/long ratio is now sitting at 1.4888. In both cases we have parabolic increases, but for every action there is an equal and opposite reaction (short squeeze in April). That reaction is where the potential lies to move price through the descending wedge's resistance. Again, I'm not guaranteeing this will happen or even stating that it is strongly likely to do so, only that I am watching price and if it continues to mimic this pattern then I plan to trade accordingly with appropriate risk management because even if price does as it did in April, there is no guarantee that it will complete in the same way. However, if it does then we would likely see a new higher high above $8500 and that would give us a bullish trend on a multi-month scale with a higher low and a higher high. The horizontal red lines denote expeted resistance if price pushes upward, similar to what we saw in April. Of course the other likely thing that could happen at this point is continued downward momentum. In that case, it matters to me whether or not it is hard and fast, like yesterday, or if it is more subdued. If the former, then my expectation is the completion of a terminal shakeout. As I have continued to state since June, if that happens then I am looking at $5450 and $5250 for support. I remain on the fence about a move below $5000 in such an event because the new low would be so much lower than our current low. Terminal shakeouts aren't meant to go significantly lower, in general. However, there is liquidity right below $5000 and I could see the potential for a wick down below it thereby setting off a lot of new longs that have been waiting in that area. If it is the latter, then I feel that we are more likely to continuing heading down further and experiencing a longer corrective cycle. But, as I have pointed out during the live streams, the dollar index appears ready to fall. Bitcoin has moved opposite of the dollar index in much the same way that gold has, so I give it the most weight in determining what happens with Bitcoin. My expectation is that if we see the dollar index drop then we should see Bitcoin rise. And if we see the dollar index rise, then we should see Bitcoin fall further/remain down.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Chris_Inks
8
BTC SHORTS | DUMB MONEY VS SMART MONEYThis is an analysis of BTCUSD SHORTS vs BTC Today's lesson we will attempt to understand, where Smart Money shorts, and conversely where DUMB Money shorts. This is somewhat satire, and should be taken with a light heart. If you are in either category I'm not here to offend you, nor to compliment you. Except, if you Short Sold the top of every rally, aka Smart Money, Congrats Madam and Sir Green circles, complimented with green vertical bars represent where SMART money Shorts the Market. I was able to identify 3 key levels where smart money short sells, 21,000 18,900 and 16,000 @ BTCUSDSHORTS level. These guys have been the bear market champs! Shorting the top of rally, with impeccable timing. Red Circles, complimented with yellow Vertical bars, represent where DUMB Money shorts BTC In Era's of Dumb Money Shorting, we see shorts FOMO, parabolic increase in short positions, only to cover or get liquidated at a later date. 2 of these Era's can be considered a Selling Climax, well because, Selling was at all time high, check the BTCUSDSHORTS chart. The inverse HnS Shorts, We'll call them, sorta dumb, because they shorted a reversal formation. We'll see how this one plays out, We're about to enter the BTCUSDSHORTS "Sorta Dumb Money" area, If the short works, then my analysis is broken. If it the short doesn't work, then "Sorta Dumb Money" is sorta dumb. One thing is certain, Short selling is on the rise, And Bitcoin just set a higher low, at a Short Selling Climax.
BITFINEX:BTCUSDSHORTS
by Fibwizzard
4
The short squeeze is comingThe amount of shorts on Bitfinex approaches 40k. Looking back, the crowd rarely earns money that easy. When shorts are getting too obvious, the short squeeze happens. A big player needs to move the price a bit up to create a waterfall of margin calls and make the move much bigger. Since we have the record on BTCUSD shorts, I expect a significant bounce above 7000. My conservative bet is close to 7500. On the other hand, if we could pass the previous top at 8500, that could possibly mean the end of the bear market. I don't believe it will happen this time.
BITFINEX:BTCUSDLong
by klos
1
BTC SHORTS VERY HIGH.. SHORT SQUEEZE?The last time BTC shorts were this high, we saw a heavy short squeeze causing a drive in price by 2,000 within a week span. Could this be a huge sign of a bullish reversal? Look for confluence on volume and candlesticks for a breakout today-the end of the weekend. Let me know what you think about a possible short squeeze! This is my personal opinion, this is not investment advice, invest at your own risk and good luck trading. COMPLETED 10:34am (UTC-7) LOS ANGELES
by cmorak2
BTCUSD: Bearish Bar But Accumulation Continues?BTCUSD update: Short squeeze erupts into a vertical move that takes prices to 6900 in a matter of minutes. This was the scenario that we were anticipating which we shared with our members a week ago. The swing trade that we called at 6189 was taken out at 6824 which was our predetermined target. As price continues to stabilize, we are on the look out for the next long. At S.C., we follow best practices which keep us from reacting to market noise like so many "experts" had during the price action leading up to the squeeze. There were a few short triggers and tests along the way, but we stuck to our original plan which was to let the probability of the location play out. Now the objective is to isolate the next high probability long setup. Since the bullish trend line is still intact, it is just a matter of waiting for a compelling pattern to appear. Once again, this market is shrugging off bearish patterns like the pin bar that printed after yesterday's squeeze which makes the bullish argument more compelling. In summary, even though the current price structure is not very impressive, we continue to anticipate further strength. The reason? This market refuses to produce any significant bearish arguments like a close below 6K. We categorize this type of price action as a slow accumulation since sell signals continue to be absorbed. Like we have been saying all along, the general location is more attractive for the long side. Between the 6K psychological support, the broad .618 support zone (8171 to 4983), and newly established higher low, price is still poised to go higher. We will continue to look for longs until it proves otherwise. By keeping the focus on anticipating rather than reacting, we are essentially letting the market come to us. We do not force trades, jump into low probability trades or entertain the noise. It is very common to over trade in an environment like this, especially if your plan is not well defined. High probability trades are infrequent and in these markets, if 2 - 3 swing trade setups trigger in a week, that is a lot. The first step to minimize over trading is to anticipate price, not react to noise.
BITFINEX:BTCUSD
by MarcPMarkets
8
is Bitcoin in bullish territory??What's up guys, I will be gone for the next couple of days and won't be able to post here, but fear not, I will give you the advise you will need for while I am gone. Firstly, we are having an excellent rally at the moment and it looks like what I said about the shorts potentially getting squeezed might be happening (read that here: ) With that said, I will be buying if we break out of the previous high because at that point, I believe the short side liquidations will take us to around $7,000. We must wait for that breakout first. I am still expecting to go to $5,000 however, so don't expect this bounce to last forever. If bitcoin doesn't break out, I am a buyer at the $5,000 level. That will be a very low risk entry. That's it guys! If I have been helpful, please like my work and follow me, it helps us both. -YoungShkreli
BITFINEX:BTCUSD
by CantorTechnologies
11
Short squeeze imminent - big move up soonBTC has been showing bottom type behavior for the last few days. The $6k level is holding and shorts are building up. Looking at Heikin Ashi we can also see two dojis as well as signs of bullish reversal. The price might still drop a little but there is much bigger potential for a move up now with a short squeeze and when it does trigger, the price will jump very quickly. It will be easy to miss most of the move. Hence I am long now willing to risk a little for a much bigger return. This move up will only be invalidated if we somehow drop below $5900 but I don't see that happening for two reasons. - People who have shorted early on will now start to get concerned about a squeeze and start to close their shorts which will hold the price up. - Others are starting to see the possibility of a short squeeze and are going to be buying now. Heikin Ashi indicator: There were two dojis recently as well as a possible first green bar if on the daily we don't go back below $6115 today. I am going to be using this indicator more often as one of the issues I have had in the past is selling or buying too soon on an uptrend or downtrend. This helps iron out the noise and shows the trend. Shorts have doubled at a faster rate than back in April:
BITFINEX:BTCUSDLong
by BTC_SA
5
Potential SHORT SQUEEZE coming in BitcoinHey guys, saw something and thought I'd draw your attention to it Watch out for this if you are short. I would not recommend being short right now. We are approaching all time high shorts and we are in oversold conditions and the sentiment is very bearish. It is very possible that a short squeeze could be coming and a large one too. If you are short, make sure you have a stop-loss. You might not "think" you can get liquidated, but you can get liquidated. Your perception of reality is not reality. Be EXTREMELY careful with this guys. This could be the next big buying opportunity so watch out. This information is bullish and so I am going to select this post as bullish to make sure the bears see this. That said, I am not recommending a buy, but you should be watching out for a buying opportunity - this could be just that. I hope you don't get rekt. -YoungShkreli
BITFINEX:BTCUSDSHORTSLong
by CantorTechnologies
5
Last time number of BTCUSD shorts was this high...Could this be the perfect short squeeze storm? 1. We are at a major support 2. BTCUSDSHORTS are almost at a record high, last time they were this high was around 10th April, after which we saw a massive short squeeze 3. Tightly hugging the underside of downtrend line meaning there isn't much distance to go to break through. If we get enough of a breakout, there is gonna be a lot of easy short prey about! Is this a point where institutional buyers are happy to enter in the long term and start liquidating shorts for their own gain? Doesn't seem to be much gain left on the short side for the big money.
BITFINEX:BTCUSD
by mgibson91
2
XBT Weekly Analysis 8/13/2018Welcome! I've been learning/praciting technical analysis for awhile now and have recently learned a lot about price action. I plan to publish my thoughts at least once a week. My goal is to practice, improve, learn and hopefully share some knowledge with the community. Please feel free to challenge and question me (respectfully). This is also not financial advice in anyway and is meant for entertainment. PSA: Don't look for advice from random people online- learn and create your own ideas for trades! Daily: BTC is sitting right above a significant weekly support level that has been tested at least twice so far(depends how you count on the chart) . The first test off this level led to the rally up to $8k+ and so far this current test has faced heavy selling pressure and has not broken any real significant swing highs. We have had several daily closes below the June close recently(6363.5) but there seems to be some support from a 1W bullish block EQ around $6296.5. 4H: There is still some significant resistance overhead and a lot of people are looking to short 6800. There is a good possibility we either a) don't get back that high so soon or b) blow right through that area. I think we are more likely to see resistance around 6700 and head back down. I plan to short there on a retest if possible. This area has only been tested once and you can see it was quickly rejected. 1H: Not much to add on this chart. We have made some short term higher lows but until the swing high on the right(red curve) is taken out I think it is hard to consider any type of strong bull scenario. Trade 1: I'm hoping this trade leads to a much larger leg down and potentially sets up a big short squeeze for trade 2. Trade 2: Pretty risky but I could see a nice bounce happening here.
BITMEX:BTCUSD.P
by slothmike