SGYP Is Setting Up for A Big Move!SGYP seems to be setting up for a big big move. The Squeeze Momentum Indicator has been forming a triangle which is now about to close and the crosses in the indicator have been black for some time meaning that a release of the squeeze should be about to manifest. My guess is that spike will be to the upside, and it could go as high as 3.60$ (90%+ appreciation), which is the 0.382 retracement level of 17's highs and the 1.618 retracement level of this year's highs.
Shortsqueeze
CHKE Very Strongly Oversold CHKE a marketer and manager of fasion portfolios of fashion brands, its brands are licensed with retail and wholesalers in 50 countries and about 9000 retails. After reaching a high of $29.75 in the summer of 2015 it has dropped to a low of $.65. Looking at the company financials reveals possible under evaluation by the market. With a market cap of about$13mil and an enterprise value (MRQ) of $56mil, total assets of $103.597mil and a new deal with Bearpaw Holding CHKE could be on its way back up. In the last 3 weeks we have seen CHKE spike to $1.30 and retreat. A break through of $1.30 could create a large move to the upside and we saw an all time high on volume two days ago. Watch this for a strong move to the upside, possible short squeeze.
SNAP long NYSE:SNAP , 4h and 1D close about key resistance can skyrocket SNAP higher (high short interest). Resistance at $12, next target at $14 (20%). No 4h candle close above $12 = no entry.
The Citron report will add some fuel for the longs: money.cnn.com
[ETH] Open Eth Short Positions Indicate Potential Short Squeeze The purple line is the ETHUSD price overlayed short volume in the last 9-10 months
Looking at ETHUSDSHORTS which shows the amount of Ether used for open short positions on Bitfinex has spiked enormously in the last couple days. This charts data, going back nearly a year, clearly show us that there is a huge amount of Ether that has been "artificially" taken out of the market in just the last few days, not to mention the last couple weeks.
Those Ether need to be brought back into the market whether the short sellers want to or not. Of course we know exactly how powerful the uncoiling of a short squeeze can be if we look at early April on Bitcoin charts.
There does need to be a catalyst that eventually breaks the camels back and triggers the buybacks of all those Ether. Could happen on just a small move upward setting off a chain reaction. Some fundamental news could drive bulls to trigger the squeeze also. Bullish stock market moves after a long weekend in the US could contribute to that tomorrow.
We could also see some more sideways or slow upwards grind in ETH price over the next few days which would most likely look very choppy and untradable in terms of TA as shorts slowly close out and eventually high volume liquidation prices trigger, sending price upwards.
"What if?" scenario. What if a Short Squeeze hadn't taken place?In April 12th Bitcoin's price shot from 6.8k to 8.1k in less than 10 minutes. I remember waking up, since it was 7 am where I live, looked at the price and was surprised to see a sudden drop from ~7k to ~6.8k. I went to the kitchen and started my coffee, took the dog outside, came back and turned the computer on. It light's up in less than 30 seconds. Cryptowat.ch is my homepage so when I hit Chrome, not ten minutes after getting out of bed, the price was at 7.9k. I thought the cache was bugged or something so I loaded up Coinmarketcap. I couldn't believe it. Luckily I had a Long order open since 6.1k and rode that bitch up. I was expecting just another Pump/Dump scheme since those had been happening quite regularly (price shotting up in a 5 minute candle, going sideways for hours and then slamming down). That and the fact we were still in a bear market made me use my gains from this move to open up a short. We were in the 6k's for days, weeks, with no relevant movement other than the fucking PnD's. Opening a short at 8.1k was awesome. And a mistake. This crazy rise wasn't a pump; it may have ~started from a pump~, but Short's stop-losses started to get triggered, creating buy orders, and a domino effect ensued. We had the opposite of a flash crash. All was fine until then, since we were still in a bear market I expected the price to eventually drop again. But then something weird started happening. People started calling "the bulls are back" like crazy. People FOMO'd in like crazy. I remained skeptical, waiting for the dump. It never came, and the price just kept rising. Make no mistake, the amazing rise from 6.8k to 10k was mostly fueled by FOMO created by the Short Squeeze, and the Short Squeeze was probably caused by one of those Pump/Dump schemes, but it finally had an irreversible effect: indirectly caused major FOMO.
So, after thinking all this through in the shower today, while I was watching the price slowly going down from 10k to 9k, I wondered: "What if that fucking Short Squeeze never took place?"
So very rudimentary, I took a graph and "blanked out" the Short Squeeze candle, and dragged the price down accordingly. This "vision" does NOT account for the FOMO generated by eventual buy orders that ensued in rallies AFTER the ShortSqueeze. The price would be around 8200.
Had that not happened, I believe the price would still be struggling to break 7k, and would've possibly plummeted down to 5k, after finally breaking the major support in the 6k area. There, at 5k, a reversal would probably take place and price would slowly crawl back to the 6k's for probably weeks, maybe months, as people kept losing interest. That would be the "Early Accumulation" phase that starts coinciding with "late distribution" on bear market cycle and starting a new bull market cycle.
Since that's not the scenario and the Short Squeeze took place, we could very well already be in "Mid-Accumulation", where we have a Markup (a fast rise in price, but even for Crypto a jump from 6.8k to 8.1k happened ~way too fast~) and the price starts making higher lows and higher highs.
But.
We just witnessed a rejection at the 10000's, a big psychological barrier (it wasn't during the bullrun because hype was so big and buyers were so many that this barrier was just trampled; this is not the case now as way less people are interested in Bitcoin). Bitcoin shyly touched it and the zombie hungry bears came back, causing the price to drop ~10% in a day. I believe the Short Squeeze's effect didn't anticipate Mid Accumulation. I believe it just triggered another bull trap. Traps happen on FOMO rallies, and I'm fairly sure that is what happened. And I honestly believe this could cause the bubble pop/crash to continue to where it should've been, possibly even lower.
Get your fiat ready to buy the lows. 6000's offered great support and a bounce is expected there. Ride it up, close your long and wait it out.
Image for What If Scenario in comments.
AMD mid-term fundamental and technical guidance There is no doubt AMD under the leadership of Lisa Su and the advantages of its IPs is on track for high growth by gaining market share on Intel and staying relevent if not competitive against Nvidia. AMD's P/B ratio is significantly lower than similar stock and PE ratio is also lower than the average in the industry. AMD also sees very high revenue growth as well as earning beats and guidance beats above industry average that are likely to continue due to its robust product refreshes. With that said, lets look at the technical.
AMD has been oversold due to crypto scare and stock downgrade manipulation, which allows for a significant upside for the undervalued stock and allows for an incredible upside. The recent gains also provides a great entry point as the bull trend is established after the amazing Q2 earnings and a break out looks ripe.
Range bound analysis sees an immediate resistance above 13$ at the downward trend line(last ditched effort for shorts), but a more than likely blowout Q2 announcement around end of july will crush that bearish bias and squeeze the shorts to test the recent highs around 15.
15 would be a fair value for AMD by the time Q3 comes out(provided with a decent market sentiment). More than a 30% upside for those with the patience. At least a 15% upside to 13$ in the near term.
Disclosure: I doubled my money with call options bought before Q2 after losing 30% by buying before Q1. Has a mixed portion of stock and options now.
Suggested strategy: Sell the stock and buy options when AMD stock dips and sell option to buy stock as AMD rally to major resistance levels.
ETHUSD: The Little Bull That Could Pt. 2If you have read Pt. 1 of the series, you have seen that my ETHUSD price prediction has been fairly accurate. We bounced around $600 and have found mid term support in this area. The volumes are fairly healthy too, which is a good sign for longs.
I have been reading a lot of other traders' analyses and have noticed that there is a general consensus on a few ideas.
1. The price will fall over the next few days. Traders are predicting the price to fall below $600 but there is no agreement where the next support would be.
2. Long term, the price will surpass the previous ATH.
3. There is a large amount of manipulation in the market.
I've taken these three ideas to come up with the following conclusion: ETHUSD will not fall below $600 again.
There are a lot of ideas here on trading view predicting that the price will continue to drop. The ETHUSD Shorts chart I referenced in Pt 1 of this post shows there are a large amount of people in short positions. Whales and manipulators will see traders predicting a price drop, buy the shares that are being sold because of these posts, and therefore forcing shorts to cover their positions. What happens when a trader covers a short? A SHORT SQUEEZE! Take a look at the hourly chart above. We have maintained steady support above $600 and in the last hour, we saw an unexpected burst of buying which drove the price above $640. As I type, the price is getting pushed higher on fair volume. As more shorts scramble to cover their positions we will see ETHUSD continue to climb. Where will it stop? My guess is the next resistance level, around $850. Because so many predict that the price will surpass the previous ATH, I predict we will see the price push past the $850 resistance. If we can overcome that resistance, ATH will be inevitable.
Regardless, I think this is a great scenario for longs. Good luck and happy trading!
BTCUSD: Squeeze Is Just Beginning. Waiting For A Retrace.BTCUSD update: Now you know what a short squeeze looks like. After the inside bar long trigger at 6900, price climbed dramatically and took out the 7492 level within hours. In that same move, price compromised the bearish trend line that has been intact since the beginning of this year. The swing trade that was called on S.C. reached its target for a 560 point profit.
Andrew pointed out that short interest has been at extreme highs for at least two weeks now and this is the fuel that drives the squeeze once it triggers. The herd, which is always wrong at tops and bottoms, was short at the bottom. Stop orders and margin liquidations on top of new buyers jumping in are driving price into the next resistance zone as I write this.
This is the type of price action that signals the bulls have taken control. The 7490 level was the .382 of the recent bearish swing which helped to define that bearish momentum was intact. That level was blown through the second time price tested it. The next important level was the bearish trend line in the 7800 area which was also blown through. These are the confirmations that I look for to indicate a trend reversal is in effect. What does all this mean? On pullbacks, support is more likely to hold and resistances more likely to break.
The 8091 to 8543 resistance zone (.618 of recent bearish swing) is a minor area but within it, the 8442 level is the .382 resistance relative to the broader bearish structure measured from the 11549 high. If price pushes this level, that is further confirmation that the next retrace should lead to a higher high and will serve as a high probability buying opportunity.
Where is a reasonable area to anticipate a retrace? The 7076 to 6815 minor support zone (.618 of current bullish swing). That is the area we will be looking for reversal patterns for another swing trade long.
In summary, we have been writing about bullish signs for weeks and have been maintaining long inventory as well (go back and read all the reports). Remember this market has been sitting in the largest support zone relative to the entire bullish structure up to 20K. The chances of it finding support and developing a bottom are high and now it is starting to unfold. Bottoming is a process, and this impressive squeeze is the initial move that establishes a broad double bottom. If you missed the move, there is no need to feel bad because there are always more opportunities. Keep an eye on S.C. because when we call the next swing trade, the details will be there.
Questions and comments welcome.
BTC, I calling a mad Bullish scenarioG'Day Cobbers,
This is my latest update, If this comes to fruition, you will be glad you came across this TA today. Shorts at a massive ATH so much liquidity, I think my charts speaks volumes in itself, so take a look, do some of your own TA and make a call. Im laddered in down to 6400 but be careful, anything under that is extremely knife edge as it will push us under the triangle structure but be aware the big boys may squeeze out all the high leverage longs and trap even more shorts by creating a bear trap outside this structure. This is why this is a zero sum game, this is where you put on your big boys pants and stand by your call, dont risk more than you are willing to lose and for the love of koala shit, don't come fomoing in and blame me if a) you scare easily and pull out at a loss or b) this goes completely goana balls bad and we drop even further. We are playing a game of probablilties with people with lots of experience and lots of capital to back them, we may get lots of push back by shorts well and truly underwater.
Good Luck my friends, lets hope it works out well.
G'day
Thanks for dropping by, hopefully you garner something valuable from my post, be it educational or an idea towards a trade of your own. Please share, like and comment and engage with me, I am here to help.
Trader, Chart analyst and all round larrikin. Reside in NQ Australia, surrounded by Crocodiles, snakes & giant spiders, not to mention the boxing Kangaroos and devilish Drop bears. It makes my job quite hazardous but strewth mate, I love it.
BTC Short Chart... History repeating itself? This is for educational review. This is not financial advice.
Wanted to show that a short squeeze can move the price up impulsively on the flip, but doesn't indicate a bull market. More likely just the big boys taking retail heroes money who don't have enough margin to cover shorts. Everyone was eyeing 7500 as a stop loss but the real stop loss is at nearly 9K before we reach meaningful levels. Got to have deep pockets to play in the range we're in now, unlike 10-20K.
M
Short Squeeze for the Treasury bearsTypically I have seen that when everyone is on one side of the trade its quite easy for the market to make fools of the participants.
The speculative short position on US treasuries, specifically the 10 year, is massive (and for good reason).
While I remain a longer bear view on these treasuries I think we might end up seeing a short squeeze before we see 3% yields.
The 10 year is showing some signs this could accelerate and hurt alot of bears who need to cover their positions.
BTCUSD: Short Squeeze In Progress. 6941 Test Possible?BTCUSD update: 7240 low which was the lower boundary of the minor 8171 to 7239 support zone was established and followed by a very bullish pin bar. The current candle has taken out the high of this pin bar which is a bullish sign. What needs to happen now is the follow through. Without it, price can still retest 7239 or even 6941 before the reversal process is complete.
Like I wrote in my previous report, do not react, instead plan ahead. The current location is a very attractive area for buyers. In fact, if you were watching the order books on the some of the major exchanges while price was flirting with the low 7Ks, there was a huge discrepancy between the pending buy orders and sell orders. There were was something like 30K to buy and 8K to sell at one point while short interest was declining. This was visible as price was going lower which clearly signaled that the smart shorts were getting out while the weak longs were being scared out. No new shorts were entering the market. This was a clear sign that a short squeeze was imminent.
Buying in such a situation is tough, especially if you are managing a larger position already. Do not fear though, because if this is the beginning of the next broader bullish move, there is still plenty of opportunity to participate at an attractive reward to risk ratio.
The key to bullish continuation is how the next few candles unfold. The fact that 8300 was taken out quickly is a sign of strength, and that could have been used as an aggressive buy trigger. The problem is, price is hesitating when it should be pushing higher. This hesitation may lead to a retest of the 7401 reversal zone boundary or even 6941 with is the next reversal zone established by the 7239 low. It is also possible that the market presents a shallow higher low. All three of these scenarios offer buying opportunities IF new reversal candles or inside bars appear at these levels.
In summary, the bigger picture carries the most weight. It also allows you to plan ahead when you are able to project relevant support and resistance levels. These locations give you a reference point to anticipate, and prepare for reversal patterns and triggers, not to blindly jump in. Just like the market highs are very risky for longs, these market lows are very risky for shorts and attractive for longs, especially for position and swing trade longs since the potential move off of this area can lead to the mid 9Ks with relative ease. The question you must ask of yourself is how much can you risk? Choose an amount, and then split it up into smaller units. This allows you to distribute your risk across levels of aggressiveness. You can allocate part of your target size toward aggressive entries (break outs), while allocating other portions to more conservative entries (pin bars off of reversal zones). Remember this is not a casino, manage risk and the rewards will take care of themselves.
Comments and questions welcome.
AQMS- 1 of my 2018 Swing Trade Candidates for 500%+ Potential$AQMS - has been beaten down from roughly the 22.50 high its at 2.08 currently. I feel it can have the same potential as last years swing candidates $IPI which was in the low 1s and $Galt at the .89 cent level. So i have added it to my 2018 swings with 500% potential list.
The share structure is roughly a 28 mil OS with around 24 mil float with such a small structure and between 12-15% short interest could see a swing back up to over 10++ in 2018.
The company is well funded and holds patent to "AquaRefining, which recycles lead batteries without producing additional waste that ends up in landfills. Recycled batteries are broken apart by machines that separate the plastic from the lead. The plastic is recycled, while an electrochemical process rids the lead of impurities."
It has a deal with Johnson Controls $JCI that i think can really start to take hold in 2018 in terms of revenue growth...
Took my first feeler today
ETHBTC: Breaking down...The terms Bitfinex published for the upcoming B2X fork, may have started a chain reaction that is putting pressure in all coins that are paired against $BTC, as people borrowing $BTC, will also owe $B2X tokens after the Nov. Fork. Pair this with a lack of liquidity in $BTC from people withdrawing to receive the Bitcoin gold airdrop, and you have an explosive catalyst for a short squeeze in everything against $BTC. If I'm right, $ETHBTC -and everything */BTC- will melt down, and $BTCUSD could reach heights between 6300 and 9700 quickly, leading to an spectacular blow off top by Nov. 18th, as people return to exchanges to drop thier B2X and chaos breaks loose, with not 1, but 3 BTC forks in existence competing for the top dog spot.
Miners will be severely divided by then, and I think the outcome could have disastrous consequences in the short and intermediate term, but, after the bear market ends, we might resume the uptrends in these instruments. Best of luck if shorting here, keep a tight stop and let it cruise. At least, swap alts for $BTC and wait for $BTC top if long crypto.
Cheers,
Ivan Labrie.
$BTCUSD - Bulls out in full force $BTC is incredibly bullish as bears are being forced to close their shorts due to the B2X fork.
Good luck :)
BTC Bullish ScenarioI think we are at the beginning of a new uptrend cycle in BTC . The weekly uptrend is still in place, and the daily downtrend (using bitstamp data) has expired. I will be looking for a move above ~$4190 to confirm, and am waiting to add larger margin positions (holding mainly spot right now).
Chart is based on methods learned from Tim West and Ivan Labrie.
"Bottom" Play on PETSA negative article smacked PETS down over 40% in just a few weeks. Since then it has leveled off and seems to be close to squeezing some shorts out. Volume has NOT confirmed a move, but price action has hinted at one, with the highest close (and first over 8 ema) since the final meltdown on 8/23. This isn't my most confident play, but I love the gains from these bounces (See TEVA today...which I was playing weekly calls on the last 3 weeks, and failed to get one last friday for this week...smh).
Entry over 37.44 with big volume
Tight stop at 36.50
(always tight stops on these plays, OR, I usually just buy calls with the amount I'm willing to risk and let it go to zero)
Potential price target over $41
GBP/USD looking to test 1.3274 soon-Strong base formed(blue lines)
-There are still many uncovered shorts, another round of short squeeze incoming.
-Price is above 200EMA, looking to long than to short.
LONG $ARRY ARRY has been going down for too long since they they withdrawn their FDA application for its skin cancer drug binimetinib after poor P3 results.
Stock seems oversold atm. Yesterday's results were quite positive. May have a short squeeze.
Short squeeze at playTOO MUCH BAD NEWS IN THE PRICE?
All it took was a positive comment from the Pacific Crest analyst yesterday, about the upcoming earnings and the prospects for Karma, to take the stock 10% up in 3x average volume. Short interest has been so high on GPRO and the stock has been so neglected in the recent rally that any marginally positive presumption (not even news) seems to want to take the stock higher. This is encouraging ahead of earnings, and points to the amount of negative expectations built into the stock right now.
EXCITING TECHNICAL BREAKOUT
Yesterday gave us a proper, solid breakout:
- Gap up at the open;
- Close above the open;
- Heavy trading volume;
- Back in the previous consolidation channel.
EARNINGS COMING UP: WHAT TO DO?
Current holders should continue to hold, in case the short squeeze extends into earnings. Volatility has subsided somewhat but remains elevated, which means non-owners should build a synthetic position to take advantage of this situation while being exposed to further upside.
CREDIT OPTIONS STRATEGY
SELL GPRO 17FEB17 $9 PUT = +$0.39 (ind.)
BUY GPRO 17FEB17 $11 PUT = -$0.28 (ind.)
TOTAL = $0.11/SHARE
RISK AND REWARD?
Get paid to wait for a continuation of the breakout.
Main risk: Company disappoints, stock crashes, investor gets assigned the shares at $9.
Best case: Stock trades above $11, investor makes money on both options or buys the shares at $11.
STRP evening star reversal?STRP is a low float stock (5.82m shares) with a high "short float" of 46.93%. The higher it goes, the more shorts get squeezed and cover their short position, pushing price action even higher. Stock is up 30% / week and formed 2/3 leg of evening star reversal. Will consider long position about 36.75 or short position below 34.40. Will shorts get squeezed today or will this roll over? First glance at the fundamentals and you wonder why this is at $35 when it has revenue more inline with a penny stock than NYSE.
GSM 30%+ for month, 70% short float, unprofitable qtr, dividendsGSM is an interesting stock, with almost 70% short float and up 30% for the month. It's had several unprofitable quarters, but yet still pays 8 cent dividends. It certainly got a lift because of the president-elect Trumps plans to build/repair the nations infrastructure, bridges, etc.
SPY - Expect a hell of a short squeezeSo, centerline is reached.
Me personally expecting a hell of a short squeeze and new highs in a couple days...
P!
