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Where There is Smoke, There is Fire | CSX Short 🚂Classic short setup for CSX railroad here. It just so happens other railroads are also showing bearish formations with imminent resolution - most likely to the downside - ahead. Remember: we are at 3.6% unemployment - a rate that has remained historically unsustainable, and elusive if not unattainable - for the last 75 years. Combining the "large-time-frame" bearish formation of CSX and the current status of the long-run labor market, I think we have a strong case for a weak aggregate demand. Not to mention, oil has been selling off for a year, despite higher unemployment. So... what gives?
NASDAQ:CSXShort
by ChiefMacro
DANGER | Caterpillar Inc Short 🐛The indicators of economic distress are vast. Sometimes I don't know what to post, but you have to post something to trick the little AI bot police. Anyway, lately things have been feeling a lot like the summer / autumn of 2008. Rampant fomo everywhere, but you can tell the market is getting tired, after a ridiculous full-employment rally. So now, we have CAT (and plenty of others) showing us highs and corrective formations; meanwhile - the UNRATE remains in an increasingly unsustainable territory. Save your money.
NYSE:CATShort
by ChiefMacro
When the Dollar Breaks This Supply Zone, It Will Bring Pain!With the stock market already trading near the 2031 fair value target of $434.98, it's a wonder how far out investors are willing to bet on S&P 500 earnings. Apple and Meta found some resistance near their average analyst targets, and now we have to figure out what comes next. For me I see t least a 50% retracement for the S&P 500, which sits around $412 per share. A strong dollar and other potential catalysts from the economic landscape could also lead to SPY falling lower. I have a fair value range between $370 and $400. Take a listen to the Equity Channel Podcast on Apple, Amazon and Spotify for more information on trading and investing.
TVC:DXYLong
by D1Finance
The Big Short. (Skip this trade at your own risk)So for sometime at Trading Group 101 we have been discussing and looking to work out the next move in the stock market during COVID-19. To do this successfully you need to look beyond the initial stock charts of the major indices and view the whole financial world. So with this in mind I am sharing some charts that not many people likely view (or even know exist) to give some insight into our thesis for the next big stock market crash. In the first chart (DBPK) we are looking at an ETF for shorting the stock market, this is showing us where people are not only withdrawing their money away from the stock market and into a cash position, but they are actively putting money into profit from any downside in the S&P 500. People do this for a variety of reason and not just to profit from a crash, but also to hedge their portfolios against a negative move. Price is at a level 33% lower than the start of the COVID-19 crisis. This does not agree with the real fundamental outlook of the economy where most of Europe is seeing case numbers rise, and leading doctors in the US admit the virus is still not under control there. The second chart (CRUDI) is an inversely correlated ETF against Crude Oil prices. In any market condition where the virus starts to peak again, we can expect Oil demand to fall and consequently prices to fall. This is where we will see this CRUDI chart rise as it did during the emergence of COVID-19. The third chart may be more familiar to people (VIX) measures the volatility of the stock market. Our analysis is telling us the VIX will soon start to rise which will be yet another indicator of the upcoming market crash. To back up this thesis we have to have a fundamental viewpoint - Essentially in so many different industries the 'new normal' isnt profitable. Restaurants with social distancing means they are not full, airlines are the same and this goes for many industries. If you have some ideas on this please comment below.
DShort
by JoelWarby
1
SPX SHORT AND LONG TERM SHORT ENTRIESOK ladies and gentlemen. The moment that we have all been waiting for.... Shorting the stock market. We can clearly see we are reproaching the old range low of the daily range before the confirmation of the bearish trend occurred last month. We should expect that to provide resistance for price and thus a short term short opportunity will be in play. However, I would only be taking that to the untested level and HTF order block before continuation to the monthly breaker and EQ of the old range occurs. There I would be entering short for a long term HTF swing and expecting us to trade away from that zone after that level were to be hit. Hope this helps and see you all in the discord as per usual.
SP:SPXShort
by UnknownUnicorn1306396
4
The Bitcoin BottomNo I don't know where the bottom is but....that trendline tho (fun fact, same exact angle from 2015) Bids are in... (they may never get filled, which is v cool, will be focusing on alts in that case) Primarily the green line (3457.13) If we drop further I will be buying down to 25XX level. The stop loss pictured here is not automatic. As a Bitcoiner my risk tolerance for this trade is abnormal. Willing to try and long the bottom. RR for shorting here is terrible, but I could see this going lower than my primary bid. Stops will be tightened tf up if/when we pump, a drop back to these levels or lower is not out of the question. RIZKY(er) trade, but end result can't be worse than those hedge fund managers about to close shop. [ ] GL, have fun, stay safe.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by XanderLoon
3
nVidia | Shorting the Bubble?NVidia closely resembles the Bitcoin chart! The manufacturer closely supplies digital infrastructure companies (crypto miners), many of whom are currently contending with low digital asset prices, regulatory clampdowns, and expensive hardware prices. Consolidations are imminent. And the secondary market for GPUs will likely slam retail prices and orders with the manufacturer. I already have the intel on the manu side ;) So, ideal place to short was $254.71, which will have stops placed just above it. The BO level is $219.72 for a momentum short. Targets are marked according for profit taking. All this market need is a catalyst and we're off! If we trade above invalidation level I will update.
NASDAQ:NVDAShort
by Trader6127
12
SPX: BOJ MISS = BULL RUN END +2% + 2016 SAFE HAVEN TREND RESUMESEnd of the bull run Global Equity Indexes: 1. SPX/ Global Equity indexes in the past 2/3wks saw a post-brexit central bank easing induced rally, as many CB released dovish statements following the vote which spurred investor confidence in fresh easing. - IMO much of the bull run was based on BOJ easing hopes, given the size of the economy (4th largest) stimulus from the BOJ had risk sentiment increasing affects - though now in light of no new easing from the BOJ and many CBs shrugging off/ UK internalising the brexit impacts I believe this bull run is over. 2. Technically speaking we may see another week or two of sideways or +1% as the market awaits easing policy information from the BOE (6th largest economy), but past this and regardless of what the BOE does i think the upside bias will cease. BOE is only likely to inject 50bn over probably 6m+ which is a drop in the ocean relatively as the BOJ does 100bn+ in one month, so by mid august latest I expect risk-markets to turn sour and a 10% correction is likely. Confirmation the risk-rally is over: - During this bull run we have seen risk markets/ SPX make gains rather frigidly, one day up one day down has been the trend - rather than the usual breakout green green green rallies of the past - this to me indicated that the topside was cautious and reinforced my view that it was central bank driven (not equity market performance driven). Thus, Confirmation of the trend turning to risk-off will be consecutive days of risk markets falling (SPX/ global indexes) OR consecutive safe haven markets rising (Gold, UST, Yen) and the emergence of a strong negative correlation between the two assets will be a solid second indicator that the 2016 risk-off trend is back. Trading Strategy - a number of ways to play this one: 1. Short FTSE100 @6700 or 7000 (wait for BOE) - this is my favourite trade but has a few conditions. We have built some resistance at the 6700-800 level so here isn't a bad place to sell however i think we will get a better selling vantage point next week, assuming the BOE cut the bank rate 25bps. - The BOE easing should move FTSE100 up 3-4% in a few days into the 7000 ATH key level as easing boosts business conditions and a lower GBP increases FTSE company international competitiveness. The 7000 level is where I am aiming for FTSE shorts with sell-limit orders as 1) its all time high levels; 2) I like to fade central bank action since it is artifical; 3) the broader risk-run is over so FTSE will suffer with the rest of the market 2. Short US Indexes @Market - SPX is perhaps the best short ATM given it trades right at its newly set all time high levels and on the backdrop of the BOJ miss we should see some downside soon. 3. Long Yen @mrkt - in the immediate term my favourite trade I like long Yen (for 200-400pips) against USD and GBP, given the BOJ backdrop is most related to JPY markets. We have already we seen the risk-off transmission taking place in here as Nikkei sold off 2% after the result and JPY grew 3% but i still think in the immediate term e.g. 1wk we can see more JPY topside and Nikkei weakness - me prefering to trade the FX strength over the equity as the equity often follows as a function of FX strength. 4. Long Bonds or Gold @mrkt - for the medium/ longer term I like buying govt debt, particularly UK gilts (BOE QE increases demand) or Gold - Gold we saw move higher on Friday in reaction to the BOJ so it will be interesting to see if we can get risk-off confirmation run from this next week (look for 3/4 green days). Risks to the view: 1. US Earnings have outperformed imo on average this Q, so the risk-run may be sustained for longer than the 2wk window that I expect. Nonetheless, i think even this is capped at 4wks e.g. we should be in full bear mode by the start of September - look out for the confirmation, a run of 3/4+ days of consecutive safe haven gains is often all the markets have to signal to show
TVC:SPXShort
by QuantumLogicTrading
6
BREXIT YUAN DEVALU: USDCNH - SNEAKY FX FIXING? SELL SPX & FTSEAt the start of 2016 the PBOC began aggressively devaluing the off-shore Yuan against the USD, imo in an attempt to start the year with a competitive export:import advantage - with the aim of making 2016 a headline "come back" year for China amid the growing GDP growth and Credit bubble worries. As a result Equities across the board sold-off (-8.5% in a few days) as non-chinese Exporters globally feared that their biggest market/ growth market was coming under pressure, as the relative value of their USD exports soared, as Chinese import demand would fall significantly and as a function of the depreciation relative to the USD. Whilst the initial highly correlated move hit equities by -8.5% (7 days), however when fully priced, the CNH devaluation fears took the SPX down 13% to 1808 lows in just 12 trading days. The PBOC Deval intervention took CNH to lows of 6.7550 and low-closes of 6.6900. Brexit - Under the radar and sneaky PBOC FX Intervention? 1. Fast forward 6 months - the Days going into Brexit USDCNH traded at almost exactly the same fix as the pre-deval January level at 6.58 (blue line), then on the most volatile brexit days, the 24th and 29th, PBOC fixed the Yuan 1000pips lower to 6.6850, just above the extreme January lows at 6.6900 - Since then CNH has continued drifting lower, and now has eclipsed the shock January low closes of 6.6900, currently at 6.6960, which is now a new 6 year low. - This begs the question, did the PBOC plan this as a way to get their goal of competitive depreciation achieved WITHOUT the negative press/ market impacts that were seen in January? The answer is unknown but by looking at the Yuan prices on brexit day and the day after, it certainly looks like it - 1000pip devaluation in 2 days, thats bigger than any deval in CNH's previous history (even from January). How to trade it? 1. Imo this trade is a no brainer, given the PBOC seem happy to keep fixing CNH higher and have shown no signs of stabilising/ appreciating - with the last 6 daily candles in the green, my bets are that the PBOC in the near-term think they have gotten away with the deval, in the midst of all of the brexit effects e.g. Central Bank information flows are high, the brexit news itself and general market volatility are all acting as distractions - thus the SPX hasnt priced any of this deval YET despite it being more extreme than what caused the 8-13% equities sell off in January? - I have to admit, it has taken even me until now to realise this sly depreciation, nonetheless this trade (short Equities) is a one up on the market currently as most still havent noticed and continue to focus on central bank action.
Short
by QuantumLogicTrading