Intraday the Aussie might lift but beating USD% D, W, TF? No
On Friday AUDUSD looked to me a very strong case for long positions, at least going forwards a few days to a week. I took the trade Long, knowing the USD$ was strong, because that's what the charts were telling me on Friday, but today it's a difference story. The Aussie likely to get a small bounce now and further selling to then take hold later in Tuesday.
But that has all changed with the Gold price selling off yesterday Monday, Gold selling and correcting in a bigger manner puts the US Dollar in a position of strength. Yesterday, I wrote how the US Dollar broke out with Bitcoin last week.
But at some point, very soon I imagine, the USD$ will not be able to outperform and be in alignment with Bitcoin's continued outbreak upwards.
But stranger things have happened, for now the USD$ is back and showing its strength against other currency's.
Shorttermlong
Seshasayee Paper Board - Short Term Idea, 25-30% ROI.The stock is in strong uptrend in all larger time frames. Poised for a daily breakout - part of Monthly reversal.
Monthly - Strong buying candle seen in September, which could not be defeated by sellers in Oct and Nov and Dec shows a hammer, which is a sign of reversal. All being inside candles.
One can enter at current market price and hold for target of 530 in the short term.
For swing immediate 10% upside is seen, target at 415-420.
DXY (Dollar index) Retracement back up to 105.600Following from last week hectic week of news events, we had a nice end on NFP friday giving us a clear indication on what price wants to do. As you can see the dollar has been ranging on the higher time frame, generating liquidity and testing new possible highs however failed to do so.
Scenario (A) - We have a strong bearish candle breaching the low of the range, breaking the structure to the downside. This hints that the dollar wants to move in a bearish trend and possibly want to take the HTF trendline below that was left from the previous rally. From this move, we have marked out new supply zones that we can sell from to continue this expansion.
As of current price we have entered a nice (4hr) demand zone that has previously caused BOS to the upside this can allow us to buy back up towards the supply above. Already we see a nice reaction within the zone as well as price accumilating so we can possibly look for nice buys on monday once we get a CHOCH on the LTF's. We will then target the 13hr supply zone above as thats our main POI for a potential sell setup to form.
Scenario (B) - Is that price continues to the downside and fails this zone to sweep the liquidity below. As theres a lot of asian lows and engineering liquidity, price can easily take this to tap into the daily demand which is a better zone to buy from to target the supply above around 105.500.
My confluences for short term dollar (DXY) buys are as follows:
- Price tapped into a 4hr demand that broke structure to the upside.
- Wyckoff accumilation is starting to formulate due to the slow movement inside the zone.
- Imbalances left above from NFP news event that price needs to come fill.
- If price wants to continue in this bearish trend it must retrace back to the supply above.
- Liquidity from the previous low has also been swept (which is the bottom of the range) - enough liquidity to possibly cause price to retrace back up to 105.600.
P.S. From last weeks DXY breakdown (29/10/23), My scenario (A) played out how I expected as price respected my 7hr supply zone that I marked out and melted perfectly from that zone which caused price to break structure to the downside. I am temporarily bearish on the dollar so our next POI's to continue this order flow will be at the 13hr supply or the extreme (7hr) above.
EURUSD short term Longs to 1.06650 SCENARIO 1- My current bias for EURUSD is that it will currently react off the (9hr) demand zone, which we will expect for price to accumulate in order for us to enter buys up to 1.06650. From were the (6hr) supply zone is located, we will then expect price to slow down and distribute for potential sells all the way back down to 13hr demand zone. Or possibly even lower as there's loads of liquidity lying around those POI's that I have marked out.
My confluences for the buys are as follows:
- Price tapped in a 9hr demand zone that caused a BOS to the upside.
- Market is currently retracing due to the impulsive move up that happened during the past couple days.
- Imbalances are left from when price pushed down today that it needs to comeback and fill.
- There's lots of magnets that attract price in the bullish directions i.e untouched Asia highs and trend line liquidity.
- Price is creating higher highs and higher lows and has shown this via a change of character on the 4hr as well as a break of structure on the 4hr to confirm the shift in trend.
- In addition for price to continue going down in a bearish trend overall I would be expecting for price to mitigate the 6hr supply zone above in order to continue going down.
P.S. For now I would be expecting wyckoff accumulation to play out in the lower timeframes to give us a indication of were we can find a sniper entry in order to maximise our risk to reward ratio.
Adobe Inc. NASDAQ stock today Wide-moat Adobe reported good third-quarter results, including revenue and non-GAAP EPS that exceeded the top end of guidance and our expectations along with it. We characterize management’s fourth-quarter guidance as in line with investor expectations, which given recent strength and with Firefly AI now generating revenue, could be interpreted as a slight disappointment. We think this mentality mainly misses the mark given such a short-term focus. Further, management will provide fiscal 2024 targets within its fourth-quarter results in December so in-line guidance for one quarter matters less to us here. To begin to accommodate recently announced price increases in the area of 10% for various Creative Cloud and single app instances, we are modestly raising our growth estimates over the next several years. Our fair value estimate therefore increases to $510, from $485 previously, although after a strong run, we see shares as fairly valued.
CHART PATTERN!!!A cup and handle is a technical chart pattern that resembles a cup and handle where the cup is in the shape of a "u" and the handle has a slight downward drift.
The target in this case is the size of the cup.
The only problem that I see here is that a Cup & Handle is a continuation pattern!
But, here, we're looking for a reversal!
Bitcoin set to bounce higher from range lowsBTC has traded within the $29.7k-$31.5k range for almost a month now. Until the range is broken, traders can look to long the lows and short the highs.
The RSI formed a hidden bearish divergence with the price as it made a higher high while the price made a lower high within the past two days, suggesting a continuation southward was likely. The OBV also favored the sellers. Yet, the range formation can be assumed to be in play until breached.
Entry: $29.7k-$29.9k
Take-profit: $31.5k (although the mid-range at $30.6k can also be used)
Stop-loss: $29.5k (further losses below the $29.5k would invalidate the idea)
Counter trend Buy Opportunity On the 1H I believe that now is the best time to get inside for a countertrend bullish move. Gold is in a downtrend since reaching its all time high. Intraday I will spot higher highs with strength and momentum. The prior higher high was fairly strong. Price retraced to the 38.2 then began giving bullish reversal signals. My target is the major 38% retracement of a daily swing low. The entry was based on the 30min.
Short-term Long position USDJPYRelative equal highs at the price level of 137.830, Price will most likely target this area for a liquidity Grab. This has also been a significant area where price has fallen each time it comes into this zone. Before getting in the market for short positions, I would wait for price to renter this zone again on its third attempt to move beyond the 138.00 price level before thinking of going in for long-term long positions. Let's see how this plays out, Happy Trading!
INARI sign of bottom with upcoming short term rebound on the wayDespite earnings miss expectations, the price & volume shows that the price is supported with intention to rebound in short term from yesterday 5 mins chart.
However, the upcoming rebound may just be a short term rebound to soften the price fall. Any longer term upside needs to be monitor.
BTC Short term Uptrend ???BTC Short term Uptrend ???
Not a financial advice, but by strong market analysis.
As per technical rating and Fibonacci levels, next target prior to the FED will be 20600 which will be a strong resistance point.
i strongly believe it will be rejected from the 20600 level to reach 18500 Target !
Thank You.
I will be only publishing my next idea if this one comes true.
XAUUSD - Key Price ActionThe weekly and daily closes above the 1787-1788 are key here.
Gold could now possibly move higher up to the 1847 level before successfully breaking below 1780 and retracing down further to the 1750 level many were looking for.
Follow for further updates. Your 'likes' are much appreciated and your comments are most welcomed.
Thank you for taking the time. Trade Safe!
Disclaimer
This is not trading advice. All content/ information shared in this idea is purely educational in nature and is expected to be used for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these assets.
You should do your own research and analysis before making any investment decisions. Do not trade or speculate based on the information provided in this idea.
Trust your own analysis.
Beyond Edge
Danone, Quick Trade or Long-term Buy. Both work here.EURONEXT:BN is showing signs that it has already bottomed out and on its way up. We have a relatively safe trade here.
RSI divergence suggests a reversal of trend. It suggests that the low of 29 October 2020 at €46 is the lowest Danone will reach in the short- to mid-term (few months).
An ascending triangle is showing upward momentum. This suggests a target of €60.
At €60, we see strong resistance that has contributed to major reversals in the past. So that's a line to watch. I suspect a reversal at this line back to the top of the triangle.
Just above the €60 line is the 50% Fibonacci level from the recent swing. Crossing this 50% Fib indicates a stronger probability of returning to the swing's top rather than its bottom.
If the resistance at €60 is crossed, then it's a very encouraging sign of the bullish momentum and we set our next target at the resistance above at €65.
The trade should go like this:
You should go long as soon as the triangle breaks upwards, and set a stop loss at either €51.50 or €50.50 depending on your risk appetite.
If the first target of €60 is reached, then we raise our stop loss to the top of the triangle or slightly below it, perhaps at €53.50
Once we cross the resistance at €60 by a full daily green candle above it, we raise our stop loss to that level.
Cheers.