Get started

Shorttermrecovery

BTC-DAILY-PULLBACK ?WEEKLY (W1) Weekly closing @ 37'790 just slightly above the weekly clouds support level @ 37'516. We, very often, hear "jamais 2 sans 3" and we saw the third weekly candle closing, in a row, above the bottom of the weekly clouds support area... Ongoing price action is showing a recovery attempt within the clouds and in this weekly time frame, we have to wait the next weekly closing level which will give more clues for the next week (s) WEEKLY PIVOTS LEVELS : 32'950 45'850 DAILY (D1) Last daily price action triggered an additional bearish black candle which closed @ 37'790, below the former uptrend support line ! Today's ongoing recovered price action should be seen, for the time being as a CORRECTIVE PULLBACK ONLY, towards the former support trend line. Indeed, as already mentioned, the CLUSTER of MBB, KS and TS is still the first significant resistance area (39'700-39'900) to break in order to neutralise, temporary this downward pressure, which is still alive ! Above it, the DAILY CLOUDS RESISTANCE AREA should also be clearly broken on a daily closing basis in order to reopen the door for higher levels towards the ongoing daily downtrend resistance line) ON THE DOWNSIDE, no change in my view 37'500-37'000 as the first support area to look at, ahead of the 36'250/35'000 next support zone. 4 HOURS (H4) In recovery mode, currently above both TS and MBB, and facing the KS resistance @ 39'201 ! Above the next resistance level will be the 38.2% Fib ret @ 39'486, ahead of the 50% Fib ret @ 40'079 (also roughly the bottom of H4 clouds resistance area !) then the 61.8% Fib ret @ 40'672 (H4 top clouds resistance zone) On the downside, a failure to clearly break and hold on H4 closing basis above KS woul, again put the focus towards the former low around 37'500 ahead of the former daily congestion bottom @ 37'000 ahead of 36'250/35'000 KEY SUPPORT PIVOT LEVEL @ 32'950 1 HOUR (H1) Corrective recovery from the intraday low of 37'567 towards a high so far of 39'220 (doji !) and H1 clouds in resistance ! IN THIS HOURLY TIME FRAME,WATCH THE CLOUDS (39'000-39'300) ON THE UPSIDE AND 38'600-38'400 ON THE DOWNSIDE. Do you like my analysis ? Do you find it bring added value to your trading activity ? If YES, please do not forget to like it and for those who do not follow me yet on TradingView, please add Ironman8848 in your following list. Last but not least for those who do not have access yet, to TRADINGVIEW (the BEST charting application available for the moment (more than 30 millions users over the world !) please sign up in clicking on the following link : www.tradingview.com Have a nice trading week and all the best. Take care IRONMAN8848 & Jean-Pierre Burki
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Ironman8848
BTCUSD-H1- DOUBLE BOTTOM IN PROGRESS !As mentioned in my previous analysis, it is very important to look at carefully short term intraday time frames which can help you to detect early signal of short term trend reversal, providing countertrend short term TACTICAL trading opportunities. Looking at the hourly time frame (H1) a RSI bullish divergence, coupled with a double bottom formation has been detected a couple of hours ago, which triggered a short term recovery which on its way up, crossed over : 1) Tenkan-Sen @ 46'303 2) Mid Bollinger Band @ 46'589 then it attempted to upside breakout the Kijun-Sen (@46'728) with an intraday high on its last H1 period @ 46'879... but failed to stay and hold on a H1 basis closis above the KS @ 46'725 So what next ? Hourly (H1) The ongoing trading hour and especially its closing level will be very important to look at; indeed, a next H1 closing level above the Kijun-Sen will be the first warning signal of further rally towards the next resistance area which is @ 47'100 (47'020 being the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the 49'515-45'478 downside move) ahead of 47'496 (50% Fib ret) - 47'450 being the double bottom trigger level !! A successful breakout of 47'450 on H1 closing basis would activate and validate the double bottom formation in opening the door for a technical target @ 49'422, which roughly the former double top congestion seen a couple days ago. On the downside, a failure to hold and stay above the new cluster support zone (46'728-46'303) on H1 closing basis, would reopen the door for lower levels towards former lows around 45'500 and probably lower towards the former 42'000 support area. 4 HOURS (H4) Currently below the clouds, the Tenkan-Sen, the Kijun-Sen and the Mid Bollinger Band First significant resistance level on this H4 time frame is @ 46'950 An upside breakout of this level on H4 closing basis would be the first confirmation of a continuation of this recovery, calling for 47'500 ahead of 47'750 and last but not least the H4 clouds resistance area, currently between 48'275 and 48'870. Watch also the ongoing H4 downtrend resistance line and which should also be seen as a good barometer on that time frame. On the downside, same than for H1 DAILY (D1) No change in my BEARISH STRATEGIC VIEW ! Still in its downtrend channel; yesterday's price action triggered a daily closing level @ 46'210, for the first time below the ongoing sideways trading range (46'650-50'650) ! Currently trying to recover "timidly"... In order to neutralise the ongoing downside risk is that daily time frame, the BTCUSD should at least recover and hold sustainably (on a closing basis) above 48'140 ! A failure to do it should be seen as a confirmation of the ongoing downside move, calling for lower levels towards 45'500 first and ahead 42'000 later. WEEKLY (W1) Currently below the former uptrend support line (currently @ 52'750, which is also the Mid Bollinger Band level !) and below the Kijun-Sen (@ 48'800 too); ongoing weekly closing will be very important to look at as a failure to close above 48'800 would be an additional bearish signal in this time frame, calling for lower levels towards the weekly clouds support area between 45'000 and 37'000, with an intermediate minor support level around 42'000 (former low ) Globally under the influence of a MAJOR DOUBLE TOP FORMATION IN PROGRESS AND A HUDGE RSI BEARISH DIVERGENCE !!! MONTHLY (M1) Very long term picture is showing the following information : Fibonacci retracements (3'850 - 69'000 rally !) : 38.2 % @ 44'112 (already filled) 50.0 % @ 36'425 (also Kijun-Sen) 61.8% @ 28'737 (roughly former lows & double bottom !) Interesting to note that the monthly Mid Bollinger Band is currently @ 33'975 HUDGE RSI BEARISH DIVERGENCE ON A MONTHLY BASIS TOO !!! CONCLUSION : In reading my multi time frames analysis, I hope, I have been able to help you to better understand "Ironman8848" technical analysis methodology which is showing you the corroboration of all time frames analysis, starting from intraday time frames to get early signals towards longer time frames to get confirmation of the trend. Have a great weekend and if you like my technical analysis methodology, please : 1) like it 2) add me on your following list 3) watch my website www.ironman8848.com Many thanks in advance All the best and take care. Ironman8848 & Jean-Pierre Burki
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Ironman8848
9
BTC - INTRADAY - FURTHER DOWNSIDE IN THE CARDS...H1 : The uptrend support line, rejected, for the time being the breakout attempt. This rejection triggered some rebound which should be seen as a short term corrective move only. Indeed, we may see a recovery towards 58500-58600 (58611 being the 61.8% Fib ret)... but it would not alter the ongoing bearish price action in progress. In this time frame, in order to neutralise the current downside risk, BTC should quickly recover and hold above the 58800 area. A failure to do it would put the focus on former lows 57200/56800 ahead of 56466 Watch again Mid Bollinger Band as the leading indicator, as long as we are below it should be seen as a bearish price action. M15 : Technical target of the Head and Shoulder (57635) has been filled with a low @ 57216 Interesting to note that the 58800 area, above mentioned in H1 coincides currently with the top of clouds resistance in this time frame. Again and again watch also the clouds... Have a nice evening All the best
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Ironman8848
BTC - H4 - TRIANGLE TARGET @ 48455H4 : Triangle target is @ 48455. Nevertheless, as mentioned, in my previous D1 post, it is likely and it is in progress, to see some recovery process which is expected to be relatively limited. Indeed, global picture remains heavy and is calling for further downside. Tenkan-Sen (@ 54355) will be the first resistance level to break ahead of the Mid Bollinger Band (@55110) A recovery above the latter level would neutralise, at least on short term, the current downside risk. Interesting to note the thickness of the clouds resistance area which is indicating some fragility as seen on the downside breakout, a couple days ago ! Watch H1 and M15 to get potential corrective targets
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Ironman8848
BTC - H1/M15 - FACING FIRST RESISTANCE (38.2% FIB RET ) @ 56097H1 : Recent price action triggered a corrective recovery towards a high so far of 56450, making on H1 closing a doji pattern = indecision and uncertainty Last candle did not managed to close above the 38.2% Fib ret @ 56097. Cluster H1 support is between 55500 (MBB) and 55250(KS); a failure to hold above this area would again trigger another wave of selling pressure targeting a retest of former lows. M15 : Caught in a kind of triangle pattern with 57000 on the upside and 53000 as pivot level area for further development. Watch clouds as a very short term support zone All the best
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Ironman8848
4
BTC - H1 - 61.8% FIBONACCI RETRACEMENT FILLEDH1 : Short term recovery took place, filling on its way the 61.8% Fib ret of the last short term downside move. An extension towards the 78.6% @33343 can not be ruled out. Nevertheless, as already mentioned a couple days ago, in order to confirm a trend reversal, we need to see a clear upside move which should break first 33915, ahead of 34247 and finally 36000. A failure to do it would confirm that recent and current short term price action are purely corrective in bear trend still in place; such kind of short term price action, for the time being, should still not be seen as a trend reversal price action but as opportunities to get out of long exposure or to initiate short positions at better levels ! On D1, watch carefully the daily downtrend line resistance which is still intact and which will give clue on strategic view. Have a nice Sunday :-)
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by Ironman8848
3