BTC-DAILY - WATCH 38'244 AND 39'900 AS PIVOT LEVELSOn the DAILY TIME FRAME , the 2 levels to watch at and monitor carefully still the same than yesterday :
1) ON THE DOWNSIDE : 38’244 (Former recent intraday low)
2) ON THE UPSIDE : 39’700 – 39’900 ( KS and TS Cluster)
A breakout, on a DAILY CLOSING BASIS , of one of those levels, would have the following implications :
DOWNSIDE : Focus will shift towards the 37’000, former congestion zone seen at the end of February ahead of the former low of Jan 24th around the 33’000 area.
UPSIDE : Focus will shift towards the ongoing downtrend line resistance, currently around 41’250, ahead the main resistance of the DAILY CLOUDS , currently between 41’550 and 42’524,
THE LATTER LEVEL (42’524) BEING THE KEY PIVOT LEVEL, WHICH IF CLEARLY BROKEN WILL FORCE TO A VIEW REASSESSMENT OF MY EXPECTED BEARISH SCENARIO CALLING FOR LOWER LEVELS
RSI below 50, @ 46.72
LAGGING LINE moving, for the time being on a sideways mode, below the KIJUN-SEN.
Last but not least the ongoing secondary uptrend support line (around 38'800 ) is currently under attack and and a failure to hold above this line, on a DAILY CLOSING BASIS, would also weigh on the BTC in increasing the selling pressure.
4 HOURS (H4)
Currently below the clouds and the Mid Bollinger Band and just slightly below the TENKAN-SEN (39'056)
Ongoing H4 closing level should give more clues for the upcoming trading hours.
Indeed, the H4 clouds resistance area (39'532-41'250) should be seen as the main obstacle to cross over in this time frame; 39'904 being the 38.2% Fib ret, 40'418 the 50% ahead of 40'931 (61.8%) and also close to the top of H4 clouds.
RSI @ 45.95
LAGGING LINE below the H4 clouds and below both TS and KS; still slightly above MBB
Currently caught during the last 2 days, in a narrow trading range, between 38'700 and 39'500
1 HOUR (H1)
Sideways price action, currently below the H1 clouds which are, at the moment, very thin = very fragile.
A sustainable recovery above the hourly clouds would be the first signal, calling for a potential TACTICAL SHORT TERM REVERSAL, with, once again an upside potential pretty limited (Fibonacci retracements previously mentioned in H4) in this broad BEARISH STRATEGIC STRUCTURE !!!
CONCLUSION :
HAVING IN MIND A STRATEGIC VIEW, THE UPCOMING WEEKLY CLOSING LEVEL IN A COUPLE OF HOURS SHOULD GIVE ADDITIONAL CLUES FOR NEXT WEEK AS A FAILURE TO HOLD WITHIN THE CLOUDS WOULD BE SEEN AS A ADDITIONAL WARNING SIGNAL, CALLING FOR LOWER LEVELS; THE LAST 2 WEEKS, THE BTC MANAGED TO CLOSE AND HOLD ABOVE THE BOTTOM OF THE WEEKLY CLOUDS AREA !
Will the BTC be able to repeat the price action of the 2 previous weeks and hold above the bottom of the weekly clouds ?
Answer in a few hours...
Have a nice Sunday and all the best.
Take care,
IRONMAN8848 & Jean-Pierre Burki
