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British Pound Futures 6BV3Disclaimer-Doing this mobile, it really sucks to be honest but here we go. British Pound October 2023 - Short Why V instead of U, concerns about the open interest on the September contracts on the CME. Open interest shirks about one month out, don’t get left holding the bag. For option traders, this does not affect your trade, your preference should be 6BU3 not 6BV3, futures is different. In the last 15 years has a probability of success of 66%. Not the greatest however this 66% is “targets achieved” so as long as it is managed and not “set and forget” you should get some profit out of it. My first target for assessment is at 1.25$ or about there (mobile) that is a .02->.03 draw down and then the king killer target is at 1.21 which is over the last 15yr the high end for profit (.07$) which also lines up with support levels. However just because it lines up doesn’t mean sh*t. Setups could include a calendar spread, back end contract best option would be March imo, or you can hedge the risk on the USD (DX! U3 or V3 on ICE or something)on a long dated or tight (close stops)6BV3 contract. Option dawgs Best case you buy the put and are in it for a short time bc extrinsic value on the option contract will increase so I would not leave it open til the 29th unlike a futures contract. Selling premium here instead is safer however you won’t make as much $ as a bought put. I may wait on the credit side until it recovers in Dec. Whether you’re running the option naked or as a debit spread it should be managed regularly. I cannot post external sites/info however reach out to me and I can provide further documentation. Hope this is readable…… “Where are the kids?” -kewlkat
CME:6BV2023Short
by kewlkat
EURUSD - Short trade FX:EURUSD Based on swing trade idea, using Fibs on daily TF, I see an opportunity to short this pair using fibs level and price action, swing high and swing low on higher time frames. Also EMA 200-100-50-20 indicate a strong downtrend Current short move started from around 1.126 where EUR/USD finds the resistance level Last 3 highs and lows create an rising channel but overall the pair is bearish and if we move to Monthly TF can observe better the area were we are, testing the previous support that becomes resistance for current move.
Short
by Andrei_C
Covid 2023 - Profiting from CorruptionHello everyone Josh here again. I’m sure by now you’ve already heard mumblings of Covid’s imminent return. We are seeing everything from colleges to hospitals start to implement Covid policies. The news cycle is starting to warn of a dangerous flu season/Covid return. Governments around the world are now updating their Covid policies and sleepy Joe’s White House is still pushing for the mass vaccination and experimentation on of human guinea pigs around the world. With all this being said, it is my idea that we are about to go back into lockdown/full Covid policy mode. Although I wish this was not the case, I do intend to profit from it. Illustrated is the Moderna chart, I use this, as it was one of the first assets I made money off of during the last pandemic, in fact, you can still go back and see my old idea on my page about Moderna when I called it at around sub $60. However, this could’ve been any chart from Amazon and Netflix to hospital sectors, to e-commerce platforms like Shopify. Basically, anything that will go up during a full-scale, pandemic/lockdown. If my gut feeling is right, and we are going to go into a full-scale lock down, it might be one of the easiest plays of the century. During the last pandemic, we saw airlines, cruise lines, casinos and resorts and a myriad of other sectors collapse to unprecedented lows. I expect something similar to happen this time around, to varying degrees of severity. Many people made millions by shorting assets last pandemic, I think we are setting ourselves up for the perfect storm to profit. Look for stocks to long and short. Ignore the noise and make your money off of the lies of the global elite. Below is an AI rendered breakdown of this idea. Thank you so much for reading. Please follow and like my ideas :) Investment Thesis: Navigating Pandemic-Related Market Trends I. Introduction: The investment thesis centers around capitalizing on potential market shifts resulting from pandemic-related policies enacted by governments and corporations globally. II. Market Outlook: Anticipating the implementation of pandemic-related rules and regulations, which could include mask mandates, lockdowns, and travel restrictions. III. Asset Allocation Strategy: A. Long Positions: E-commerce Dominance: As witnessed during the previous pandemic, e-commerce platforms like Amazon thrived. This trend is likely to persist as people turn to online shopping for convenience and safety. Entertainment Streaming: Companies like Netflix benefited from increased demand for home entertainment. Expect this trend to continue, making streaming platforms potentially profitable investments. Pharmaceutical Giants: Pfizer and Moderna played pivotal roles in vaccine development during the Covid pandemic. Their expertise positions them well for potential future vaccine requirements or pharmaceutical innovations. Healthcare Stocks: Hospital and healthcare-related stocks may experience increased demand as health services remain crucial during pandemic periods. B. Short Positions: Travel and Hospitality Sectors: Historical data shows that airlines, cruise liners, resorts, and casinos experienced significant declines during the last pandemic due to travel restrictions and reduced consumer spending. IV. Risk Considerations: While historical patterns suggest certain sectors will benefit and others may decline during pandemics, unforeseen variables can impact market dynamics. Careful monitoring and adaptability are essential. V. Diversification and Hedging: To mitigate risks, consider diversifying your portfolio across industries and asset types. This approach helps balance potential losses from short positions with gains from long positions. VI. Exit Strategy: Regularly reassess the investment landscape, keeping an eye on shifts in policies, vaccination rates, and economic indicators. Be prepared to adjust your positions accordingly to optimize gains or minimize losses. VII. Conclusion: In light of potential pandemic-related policies, a strategic investment approach involves capitalizing on e-commerce, streaming, pharmaceutical, and healthcare sectors, while shorting travel and hospitality sectors. Prudent risk management, diversification, and a proactive exit strategy will be pivotal in navigating the ever-evolving market landscape. Please note that investment decisions involve inherent risks, and it's advisable to consult with a qualified financial advisor before executing any investment strategy.
NASDAQ:MRNA
by Helios_Capital_Investment
EUR/USD Prediction on 23.08.2023The recent downturn of the Euro (EUR) against other major currencies has attracted significant attention from financial markets, policymakers, and everyday citizens. This decline is not only of interest to those directly invested in the Euro but also has broader ramifications for the global economy. Let’s delve into some of the underlying causes for this trend and its potential consequences. 1. Causes for the Decline: Economic Disparities: The Eurozone consists of 19 member countries, each with its economic strengths and weaknesses. Disparities between economically strong countries like Germany and struggling nations can create tensions and affect the Euro's value. Debt Levels: High levels of national debt in countries like Greece, Italy, and Spain have often led to economic uncertainty within the Eurozone. Market fears over the sustainability of these debts can influence the Euro's value. Political Instability: Political events, such as elections or referendums, can create uncertainty about the future direction of a country’s fiscal policy, potentially affecting the Euro's strength. Monetary Policy: The European Central Bank (ECB) plays a pivotal role in determining the Euro's value. Decisions about interest rates, quantitative easing, or other monetary tools can influence investors' perceptions of the currency. External Factors: Events outside the Eurozone, such as trade wars, global recessions, or significant geopolitical events, can impact the Euro’s value. 2. Implications of the Euro's Decline: Exports: A weaker Euro can make European goods and services cheaper for foreign buyers, potentially boosting exports. This could benefit European manufacturers and service providers. Imports and Inflation: Conversely, a weak Euro makes imports more expensive, which can lead to inflation if businesses pass on increased costs to consumers. This can erode purchasing power and potentially slow consumer spending. Tourism: As the Euro depreciates, Europe might become a more attractive destination for tourists, potentially benefiting the travel and hospitality industries. Debt Payments: Countries with significant external debt may find their repayments more expensive if their debts are denominated in a currency other than the Euro. Investor Sentiment: Continued uncertainty and a weakening Euro might lead to reduced investor confidence in the Eurozone, potentially resulting in lower investment levels.
Short
by mazayafx
USD/CAD PREDICTION ON 17.08.2023At the moment, the Canadian Dollar (CAD) is exhibiting a bearish trend. Several factors could be influencing this downturn, be it economic data from Canada, global oil prices, or international trade dynamics. It's vital for investors and traders to keep abreast of relevant news and economic indicators from Canada. Always combine insights with personal research and consider seeking advice from financial professionals before making investment decisions.
Short
by mazayafx
GOLD Short Opportunity with an alternate option to go longThe price of GOLD this August is controlled by the bears, as seen on the monthly chart. The weekly price is also controlled by the bears, supporting our short idea. As we are inside the parallel channel, we must be patient to short near the resistance of the channel which is also in confluence with the opening price for the week. If the short materializes, we can take profit near the bottom range of the channel. If price breaks out of the channel (as shown using the orange arrow), we can wait for a retest of the channel and go long but take profits quickly as bears are still in control of the month and we are still inside the downtrend channel.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by paolojuesna
3
EURUSD ShortBy this analysis, many traders will probably end up losing, but we are looking for a selling opportunity. From the weekly timeframe, we are still bearish, and we perceive the intraday bullish signal as a result of NFP (Non-Farm Payrolls) and trapping retail traders into long positions. We would much prefer to take advantage of the weekly liquidity around 1.08350 (grab) and then start buying in weekly FVG. But waiting for confirmation candle. Leave a comment below what do you think.
Short
by Monesta
1
CARVANA Signs of a PULLBACK Evident and TARGET AREASHi guys, this is a technical Analysis on Carvana (CVNA) on the 3 Day Timeframe. We've had a MASSIVE rally in CVNA, from MAY till reaching our current MAJOR RESISTANCE ZONE indicated by the GREEN RECTANGLE with RED borders. We've reached it and got rejected from it on July 19th. We've made our way back up however and are currently forming a LOWER HIGH. Note however, our current 3 DAY candle closes on the 9th of August. Make sure to pay attention. Friday we had a 12% sell off, where currently our price action is below the 0.786 FIB Level. If we close below on the 9th, the other FIB levels become more probable to reach. Becoming BUY ZONES and Potential PRICE BOUNCE areas. Our MASSIVE RALLY occurred due to 2 TA reasons: 1. MASSIVE BULLISH ENGULFING CANDLE that blew past MAJOR REISTANCE TREND LINE from BLOW OFF TOP (BLACK line) 2. GOLDEN CROSS, where the 21 EMA CROSSED ABOVE 50 D SMA However in my Opinion this rally, is NOT sustainable. Notice how SLOPED it is, indicated by this sharp upward channel in BLACK. I believe something is going to give, especially now that we hit this MAJOR RESISTANCE RECTANGLE ZONE. I also believe we have not created strong MARKET STRUCTURE, we just went PARABOLIC. This has weak foundation and is probable for a price correction. Our direction i believe is to fall to the various TREND lines, MOVING AVERAGES and FIB Zones i drew, put on charts and highlighted, respectively. Notice the trendline our current PRICE ACTION is resting on, if we BREAK this, look to the LOWER SUPPORT TRENDLINE of the UPSLOPING CHANNEL. I am also looking to the 0.618 FIB and 0.5 FIB Levels as BUY ZONES and areas we test, especially if we CONFIRM BELOW the 0.786 FIB level. AND Note: It is also likely that when we TEST the FIB levels as SUPPORT, PRICE can move up. Remember that if we don't reclaim or CONFIRM as SUPPORT ABOVE the previous FIB level we broke down from, it is likely price falls again. I am also looking at the 21 EMA (ORANGE Moving Average) as another area i believe we may test as SUPPORT in the days to come. I Use this EMA alot to indicate BULL TRENDS and BEARISH TRENDS. When PRICE is ABOVE = BULLISH, or BELOW = BEARISH. Another interaction that occurs is that sometimes when stocks move up in PRICE, it usually comes back down to TEST the 21 EMA as SUPPORT. Which WE HAVE NOT YET SEEN a test of SUPPORT on 21 EMA since we went PARABOLIC. This adds to evidence of WEAK Market Structure. If & When we TEST IT, we bounce off, thats healthy and sustains the BULL RUN, but IF we breakdown confirming as RESISTANCE, WE can test the GREEN Moving Average, the 50 D Moving Average as SUPPORT. NOTICE: SUPPORT CONVERGENCE of the 21 EMA, BLACK TREND LINE and the 0.5 FIB level. This area could be an AREA we can have a potential bounce from. When many support zones meet, it becomes a powerful support level. Also NOTICE: BLACK TREND LINE meets at 0.618 FIB level EMA will also continue upwards, provided price stays above the EMA. If all FIB LEVELS FAIL, which is always possible but for now not as PROBABLE, LOOK to the MAJOR SUPPORT RED HORIZONTAL LINE as our life line. This could be our base for sideway or range bound action. Keeping that to the back of your mind can give you perspective of the possibilities of where PRICE can go. But lets take it ONE STEP AT A TIME. Now lets look to the RSI, Notice how we've been hanging around at the OVERBOUGHT ZONE since early JUNE. Longer we stay up it becomes more likely we come down, once we do it indicates SELL OFF. One pattern i like to use is watching how the ORANGE RSI LINE interacts with the Moving Average i added to my RSI. If we CROSS below the Moving Average, it usually indicates that we have SELLING and a DOWN TREND. Notice the PREVIOUS EXAMPLES 'ive highlighted. Now Notice the STOCH RSI. We are getting close to a BEARISH CROSS below the 80 level, indicating BEAR MOMENTUM and SELL OFF. Also focus in on the BLACK HORIZONTAL LINE, watch for any bounces back up. This could give way to BULLISH Momentum coming back into CVNA. CONCLUSION: Cavana has had an explosive run, where in my opinion it is not sustainable for the time being. Especially so that we've hit a MAJOR RESISTANCE ZONE. A pullback is inevitable. Ive highlighted some ZONES and Support convergences that, in my opinion can be areas of POTENTIAL BOUNCES and BUY ZONES to observe. When thinking about price dropping, its important to look at it ONE STEP AT A TIME. Example -> Look to the 0.786 FIB level first, if we close & CONFIRM below, look to the next TREND line or FIB level or other ZONES highlighted above and be level headed. This is ABSOLUTELY NOT A TIME TO BUY in my opinion. Alot of signs show overbought conditions especially in the RSI and STOCH RSI. Wait and observe to see what happens for the next 3 day candle close. Hope this helped. Please support my ideas and my effort by boosting, following and commenting! Thank you for taking the time to view of work. Any questions, reach out. DISCLAIMER: This is not financial advice, i am not a financial advisor. The thoughts expressed in the posts are my opinion and for educational purposes. When trading always spend majority of your time on risk management strategy.
NYSE:CVNAShort
by SafofAllTrades
2