EUR/USD Prediction on 12.07.2023Inflation, a critical economic indicator, has been a key concern in recent times, and today our focus is on its trajectory within the United States. As of now, the US economy is grappling with increased inflation rates, with potential implications for consumption, investment, and overall economic health.
To comprehend inflation, it is essential to note that it denotes the rate at which the general level of prices for goods and services is rising, and subsequently, purchasing power is falling. Central banks attempt to limit inflation — and avoid deflation — to keep the economy running smoothly.
Over the past year, the United States has experienced a noteworthy uptick in inflation, driven by a confluence of factors. In particular, there's been an upsurge in consumer demand as the country emerges from the constraints of the COVID-19 pandemic, coupled with supply chain disruptions, wage pressures, and fiscal stimulus measures. Such trends, alongside rising energy prices, have all coalesced into a higher inflationary environment.
The consequences of inflation can be multifaceted. On the one hand, moderate inflation is generally considered a sign of a healthy, growing economy. On the other hand, when inflation becomes too high, it can create uncertainty and harm savings, particularly for those with fixed incomes. Elevated inflation can also lead to potentially higher interest rates, with the Federal Reserve using this tool to keep inflation at bay, which could have implications for borrowing costs and investment.
Given the economic interconnectivity of the world, inflation in the United States can have ripple effects globally, affecting international trade and investment decisions. Therefore, it is critical to understand the root causes, the potential impact, and the likely direction of US inflation.
Currently, economists and policymakers are closely monitoring this situation, implementing strategies and making adjustments to both anticipate and react to changes in inflation. They are doing so while also striving to maintain economic recovery momentum and safeguard against any financial stability risks.
In conclusion, while inflation is a complex and multifaceted issue, its prominence in the economic landscape is undeniable. As we continue to observe the US economic environment, understanding inflation and its potential impacts are of paramount importance.
Shorttrade
P&G Target $135Procter & Gamble is in a weekly uptrend but was hitting its „head“ on the 158.00 resistance. After consolidating there it fell through the local higher low, building a new lower low and is currently retracing to that former local low which acts now as a resistance. The stock showed large sell volume on that resistance last friday which suggests we might se another break down to the current support at 135.00.
We have two problems to consider in this trade:
1. The XLP (Index for Consumer Staples, with P&G as its biggest position) is currently more on a support than resistance and might suggest an upward move. That could mean P&G breaks through the 150.00 and is heading higher.
2. The yellow trend line was not broken yet. As a price action trader this is more of a minor problem to me because trend lines are artificial and only an indication for specific price action but should not be mistaken as price action itself.
I therefore suggest to wait what happens today. If we see further downward movement, the trade could be taken. If we remain at the 150.00 resistance without larger sell volumes we should skip this one. Also, do not forget that consumer staples show steady performance during recessions and inflation periods because of the nature of their products. Not a primary concern for technical traders but it should be kept in mind.
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🐻 Trade Idea: Short - PG
🔥 Account Risk: 1.00%
📈 Recommended Product: Knockout / Option
🔍 Entry: +/- 147.00
🐿 DCA: No
😫 Stop-Loss: 155.00
🎯 Take-Profit #1: 135.00 (75%)
🎯 Trail Rest: Yes
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NZDUSD - The Bears Are Stepping In!Analysis:
As we can see from the charts price is clearly in a downwards trend signalling to us that we want to only be shorting this pair to go with the trend. We can confirm that price is in a downwards trend by the fact that we're forming lower highs and lower lows and the fact that we have a downwards trendline which has been respected multiple times. Price has pulled back to an area that we're very interested in as its held multiple times in the past signifying that it is a strong area and we have other confluence factors at this level too to back up this setup. To add to this idea we've seen the rejection of the 61.8% fib level showing that the sellers have stepped into the markets which helps with our idea. We've also seen the rejection of the downwards trendline just as we expected would happen. This shows that the bears are in control of the market, indicating that there should be more bearish momentum on the horizon which goes with our idea. So technical wise we have a very good reason and bias to the short side but we don't just look at the technicals so taking a look at the fundamentals too, we see that we also have these on our side. Firstly we have the USD which is the 2nd strongest major currency compared to the NZD which is the 4th strongest major currency so this is already pointing to be bearish on NZDUSD but looking further to add more confluence we also see that the USD had a decrease in long positions and a huge decrease in short positions by institutions so overall this is looking bullish for the USD whereas for the NZD we saw a small decrease in short positions but a larger decrease in long positions by institutions which is a bearish indication. Overall we have multiple confluences lining up signalling to us to be shorting the NZDUSD which is why we have a bearish bias on this pair.
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Stay Safe - JPI
Disclaimer:
This does not constitute as financial advise. We are not responsible for any monetary loss that you endure. Trading is hard to be profitable with and we take losses just like everyone else does to. Our ideas won't always be correct which is why we urge you to always do your own analysis first before entering into the market but please feel free to use our analysis to assist you with yours.
GBP/USD Prediction on 23.06.2023The economic climate in Europe indicates a bearish trend for the Euro. The combination of sluggish growth, increasing inflation, and rising unemployment rates are contributing to a pessimistic outlook for the European Union's single currency. With member countries grappling with fiscal challenges, there are mounting concerns that the Euro's value could be further eroded. With no immediate signs of an economic recovery, it seems the bearish tide for the Euro is likely to persist in the foreseeable future.
GOLD 16/5 ! Will gold continue to fall?Yesterday, the price of gold experienced a significant increase due to a substantial decline in the value of the US dollar, reaching its lowest point in over a month.
At present, the gold market is displaying strong resistance following the Federal Reserve's indication of the potential for two additional interest rate hikes this year. This has heightened experts' confidence in gold, leading to predictions that this valuable metal will sustainably surpass $2,000 per ounce.
Downtrend is still dominant today 6/16
Hard resistances at 1,962 - 1,965 - 1,967. In these areas, you can watch Short
Technical indicators are approaching oversold levels, and the 34 and 89 EMAs are currently moving around the $1960 level.
Yesterday fake bullish day for EURThe surge of fake news circulating in the media realm seems to have an unconventional impact on the currency markets. In a seemingly counterintuitive scenario, there is increasing evidence that the prevalence of fake news may be fueling a bullish trend for the Euro (EUR).
As misinformation spreads, investors often seek security in more stable and regulated economies. Given the European Union's robust regulatory framework, particularly in terms of information dissemination and data protection, the Eurozone presents an attractive haven amidst the rising tide of fake news.
Investors are seemingly flocking towards the Euro, a signal that fake news, rather than fostering economic chaos, may be inadvertently bolstering trust in the EU's financial systems. This shift implies a bullish outlook for the Euro, as it seems to be attracting more investors seeking refuge from the uncertainty induced by the rampant fake news.
However, it is critical to exercise caution. The investment world is inherently unpredictable, and relying on the incidence of fake news to forecast market trends can be a risky strategy. It is recommended to keep a close watch on market indicators and consider multiple factors when making investment decisions. Remember, no single factor, including the spread of fake news, can entirely dictate the trajectory of a complex currency market like the Euro.
Moreover, this situation sheds light on a pressing issue. As much as the regulation of fake news becomes a challenge, it also turns into an opportunity for stricter standards, better governance, and improved financial security, potentially enhancing economic stability in the long run.
EURAUD I Short opportunity explained 150 + pipsWelcome back! Let me know your thoughts in the comments!
** EURAUD Analysis - Listen to video!
We recommend that you keep this pair on your watchlist and enter when the entry criteria of your strategy is met.
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GOLD 21/6!! A slight recovery after the fallThe price of gold (XAU/USD) remains at a low point for the week, recovering from a three-day decline near $1,937. Investors are getting ready for an important event this week, which is the bi-annual testimony of Fed Chair Jerome Powell. It's important to mention that negative news about China, along with the Federal Reserve's hawkish stance and positive data from the United States, are keeping the bears in the XAU/USD market optimistic.
Expect a slight recovery of the downtrend on June 20. But the downtrend is still dominant
Can SELL price range $1946-$1950, SL 1960
Based on 2 technical indicators EMA 34, EMA 89 combined with the MACD, it shows that the 9 EMA crosses the upward signal line, showing divergence.
GOLD 19/6 @ Downtrend prevailsThe price of gold (XAU/USD) is currently being affected by negative market sentiment towards China and concerns about the Federal Reserve (Fed). It is currently trading near its lowest point of the day, around $1,955 in early Monday trading in Europe.
Recent news about several banks lowering their growth forecasts for China has dampened investor appetite for risk and put downward pressure on the price of gold. Additionally, comments from Fed policymakers that lean towards a more hawkish stance, along with the latest report from the US central bank to Congress, have also influenced the XAU/USD price.
It is also because of pressure from bad news from the world. Gold price has not been able to break through the Break out area of $1968, it is still trending down this week, June 19, 2023
Entry Short $1968 -$1970 , Buy zone $1943 - 1940
Use the technical analysis indicator strong resistance point at $1968 combined with the moving averages MA34 and MA89 , for a nice entry point .
Bitcoin faster than expected.New downward channel forming (note inverted chart). Expected it to follow the blue line. In this new descending channel it seems bitcoin is struggling to even oscillate through here and is getting forced down faster than i had anticipated (see my other chart). Looking to buy around 25k and then again 20-21k.