MSFT break out right before earning but will it stick....?MSFT is breaking out of side way trading range since June 2020. It certainly looks bullish on the face value but will it stick. Trading right before the earning is tricky enough but it will be a bull trap if it does fail. If it does turn out to be a fake break out, it will be very swift fall to mid range of the range around $217 support and ultimately to the bottom of the trading range. Given the posture of QQQ, I am leaning more toward that scenario but the price action has been nothing but bullish so it will only be a potential short set up. Nothing actionable and it will be certainly a countertrend trade.
Have a good trade,
T.
Shorttrade
EUR/USD, Head and shoulder formation. Eurusd to reach the 1.20 area with a deeper retracement to the golden ration 0.618. Based on the volume profile the POCs clearly are showing a deeper retracement since the value area failed to rise above the 0.5 fib retracement and we can definitely look at a strong USD for the next days.
In terms of structure we are seeing the formation of a head and shoulder pattern , also there is a high probability that the price will fall to the previous demand zone in order to trigger all the institutional orders left at this level.
From a COT perspective we are seeing an equal number of long and short positions added by hedge funds and investment companies on the dollar index, On the Euro institutions have added a huge amount of long positions during the previous week. With that being said we might see the price falling to the 1.20 area in order to trigger the long positions added by the smart money.
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NQ=F keep pushing higher as negative divergent extendsHere is the daily chart of Nasdaq 100 e-mini Future. Despite of what's going on with macros, it keeps pushing higher day after day. I am just waiting to see the catalyst and a signal to enter a short trade. ES=F has a very similar posture as well. I also added support levels which will likely to produce some reactions as well as upsloping trend lines. Yellow trend line is from the 2008/2009 Great Recession. Given the put to call ratio, extreme euphoria, and extreme bullishness in public sentiment, I expect down move to be very fast and swift.
Am I right or wrong? Only the time will tell....
Have a good trade, everyone.
T.
ETH Bull Exhaustion - Short SetupETH/USD SHOST SETUP IDEA
Entry: $1,204.15
Stop Loss: $1,260.25
TP Levels and RR: $1,057.04 (2.62)
REASONS FOR THE TRADE
Although this setup looks almost identical to the previous one we took (which was long), the two indicators I am using - Trend Volume RSI Analysis and Multi Time Frame Effective Volume Profile show clear divergence. The up move is no longer supported by the required volume, so I expect a dropdown. The Stop Loss is put at a relatively safe distance and the target is reasonably low. However, should this setup turn out to be valid, I would trial the SL and let it run. I would take only partial profits at the target.
If this setup turns out to be invalid, our previous long is still active and in profit, so we are effectively hedged.
UPWORK is a Great SHORT OpportunityNASDAQ:UPWK
UPWORK was a major benefactor from the lockdowns earlier in the year, beating their most recent earnings by +59%. Although I do like the business structure of UPWORK and thing long-term this company will scale immensely, I also think that this most recent run was driven by the euphoric earnings beat.
From a technical standpoint, the 200 Day SMA is all the way down at $15.50 and has gone untested for quite sometime, meaning a mean reversion may be due. We also broke out above that red rising trend line and never retested it to become proper support.
My downside target is $22.50 which would put us right at the retest of the rising red trend trend line (almost like its really important). Although my downside target is $22.50, the risk of $15.50 isn't too farfetched to consider a true possibility.
Good luck and be safe.
- PennyBag
450+ Short on GBP/AUD using Force Vector Technology Beta RunForce Vector Technology
has an uncanny highly predictive nature where the interstitial buying and selling force vectors produce a resultant vector that points into the direction the market will move in the near future.
Potential short trade on GBP/AUD relief bounce off of the resistance wick. Strong downside momentum after relief bounce as indicated by a downward resultant force vector that can potentially produce about 450+ PIPS.
GBPJPY Short Trade Analysis 14/12/2020Bearish intraday trend set up on the GBPJPY FX currency pair.
Last week saw a very bearish Friday candle closure and bearish weekly candle closure. Over the weekend there was a gap up into wait I believe to be a good short trade entry zone. The last 2 highs formed were lower highs and a lower low was made last week around 137.00.
I think the bearish trend might continue down now although GBP is very headline driven at the moment as expected.
I am using last weeks lows (137) as TP1 and then new lower lows at 135.800 for my TP2. If price continues to trend downwards then I have the next support zones marked on the chart for your references.