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Shortusd

Short USD/THB: Downtrend to ContinueUSD/THB is in a down-down trend, as evidenced by the 3-6-20 MACD signal line and 12-26-9 MACD signal line. It is also trading within a relatively wide channel (two parallel green lines). I have included the 7-day Moving Average as well, because since the middle of December, the MA has served as a reliable resistance level that the pair has yet to meaningfully break through in the new year. As some background, the pair began a long up trend in April, peaking in July at 33.525. Since then, has been a gradual down trend, with some potential reversals, but not enough to break the down trend. On the way up, the pair found support around 31.858 (horizontal green line), and that is the next major support line that the pair is moving towards. I think that the slight bounce that the pair has had over the last two sessions are within reason of the down-down trend, and I expect it to continue downwards. Trade: Sell USD/THB @ 32.023 Stop Loss @ 32.106 (previous day's high) - if it breaks above here, then the channel trend is also broken, implying a potential reversal in the down-down trend Take Profit @ 31.858 (level of significant support back in May and June) I've also included some previous resistances that the pair hit since it began its down trend in July. Notably, the blue horizontal line is the level of resistance back in early September that the pair failed to break through. You will see that more recently, this level of resistance was tested again in early December, and when that failed to break through, the pair continued downwards. The red horizontal line is another resistance level that was tested at the end of September. The pair initially failed to break through, but regained momentum in October to begin a short bounce upwards. However, at the end of the year, the pair began testing that resistance level again, this time as a support, and when it failed to find support, it broke through downwards, rather dramatically. This leads us to where we are today, in a down-down trend, and within a downwards channel.
Short
by BinaryPairing
BUY USD DIPS VS GBP/ NZD: DOVISH FED W. DUDLEY SPEECH HIGHLIGHTSFed Dudley was speaking At A joint New York Fed, Indonesian Central Bank Seminar On Sunday evening when he left a mixed impression for the markets to digest - saying "it is premature to rule out an interest-rate increase this year" but then on the contrary saying "Raising Rates Prematurely Would Be Riskier Than Moving Slightly Too Late" and following up that sentiment with "Investor Expectations For Flatter Path Of U.S. Interest Rates Seems 'Broadly Appropriate'" and pointing out the medium-term risks are seen skewed to the downside - all of which somewhat contradictory expecting a 2016 rate hike. IMO these comments are more less positive news for the greenback, given the hawkish July Minutes should take precedent (despite the market weirdly selling the september hike being officially put on the table) and after the DXY lost every day last week I think it will struggle to continue this trend into this week as the drop in rate hike expectations/ fed funds rates should flatten out - Likely seeing the bulk of the dovish expectations price last week - september 25bps hike expectations fell from 25% at the beginning of the week to 12% on Friday following the miss GDP report - will likely bottom out around here to 8%min. That said, given the BOJ's miss we could easily see further pressure on US rates this week as imo the failed big stimulus hopes are likely to fade the risk-on environment of late, and move us back into the safe haven trend that has dominated 2016 - so dont be surprised to see some more risk-off rate expectation USD selling/ bond buying - look out for consecutive moves higher in UST or moves lower in tnx. In the medium term this still hasnt changed my view of bullish USD and at present IMO this selling wave has opened up the opp for some good USD buying entry points e.g. kiwi above 0.72, stelring at 1.33, and eur at 1.115 - kiwi and sterling the best trades as we move into RBA, BOE and RBNZ within the next 10 days which should realise considerable downside for kiwi and cable (and for those trading aussie too, tho i prefer the kiwi proxy). Fed Dudley Speech Highlights: -Fed's Dudley Warns It Is Premature To Rule Out an Interest-Rate Increase This Year -Dudley Says Fed-Funds Futures Prices Seem 'Too Complacent' -Dudley Says There Is 'Room For Improvement' in Fed Communications, But They Are Growing More Transparent -Dudley Says His Baseline Outlook For U.S. Growth, Inflation 'Has Not Changed Much In Recent Months' -Dudley Expects 2% Annualized U.S. Growth Over Next 18 Months -Fed's Dudley Says Medium-Term Risks To Economy Are 'Somewhat Skewed To The Down Side' -Dudley Says Brexit Impact Has Been Short Lived, But Longer Term Potential Fallout 'Hard To Gauge' -Dudley Says Fed Takes Dollar Appreciation Into Consideration, But Not Targeting Any Set Exchange Value -Dudley Says Evidence Accumulating The Crisis-Era Headwinds 'Are Likely To Prove More Persistent' -Fed's Dudley Warns it is Premature to Rule out an Interest-Rate Increase This Year -Dudley: Investor Expectations For Flatter Path Of U.S. Interest Rates Seems 'Broadly Appropriate' -Dudley Says Raising Rates Prematurely Would Be Riskier Than Moving Slightly Too Late
TVC:DXYLong
by QuantumLogicTrading
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