Shortusoil
USOIL in tipping scale... first to $77 then down to $62My trading Idea here is to catch the upward bounce and then to short the trade.
First
My entry for a call is short term based +- to 5 August
Call Entry 67.85
Close Trade at 70.00
Then
Short 70.00
Downward target $62.00
SHORT USOILWe have good KBO Setup in making. If this Candle Manages to Close below Cloud then go short below the low. Target 1:1
Sell USOILCrude Oil is at Support. Though we see a Rejection at the Support the current strength of Trend is more to the negative side.
We got the Kumo Breakout and Market has already broken second bearish fractal which shows the signs of bearishness.
Based Elements theory the Trend is biased based on TK Cross.
So though Crude is at Support right now. I expect it to fall more to reach the Target level.
The Stop loss is bit on higher side since market has tendency to move up and hit KS.
Good Stop is above Bullish fractal. If we break bull fractal then Market structure will break and it won't be bearish.
Good Luck and God Bless
short on USOIL untill EIA data on inventoriesOn a fundamental basis, I am short USOIL long term since I believe a higher price will only incentivize higher production which will lead to higher inventories and therefore lower price, with price balancing out over the long term near the marginal cost of production for shale producers which is around 40-45 per barrel.
On market sentiment basis, I see the drawdown in long USOIL positions from last week make a dent on the bullishness the market has had up until now. Although it could still reverse, I see it as a step towards having marked a top in USOIL.
On a technical basis, we are still in a range of consolidation although we are far from the bottom of the range and that brings shorting opportunities, at least until we reach that bottom of the range. I see three sell signals so far that could make for a nice intraday short at least until the release of EIA inventories which would likely trigger a short covering and a bounce:
first, a rejection of the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement of the consolidation rage at 53.48;
second, a failure to make an uptrend on a 1hr time frame;
third, a break of the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement of the consolidation range at 52.95.
In conclusion, the short might work intraday before the EIA release of inventory data that usually triggers a short covering. I set the take profit at the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement from 52.95 to 52.42 . I think this is a high risk to return trade of very short duration.
USOIL -Quick shortApproached trend line and sitting at resistance line.
Looking for a quick short when the price retrace.
Even though the rally movement seems strong but the retracement should happen shortly.
This is just my own analysis, please do your own analysis and trade at your own risk.
