Shortxauusd
xauusd short term SHORTrsi describe divergence on the chart.
and SND resistance can not be break up 1310. short term short
Gold sell pattern. Sell XAUUSD right nowI see sell pattern on Gold. So i opened sell order on 1313.66 SL near 1321.50 because gold can make last higher correction.
TP1 - 1308.50 RRR - 0.7
TP2 - 1305.60 RRR - 1
TP3 - 1297.50 RRR - 2.1
TP4 - 1277.00 RRR - 4.76
I do not hope that Gold will quickly reach TP4. But it really can and we need to know potential.
And if gold and USDJPY has negative correlation - so USDJPY maybe go higher and higher.
Gold Investor fearing from today's NFP DataXAUUSD Technical Overview:
Pivot: 1205.45 (1198.40)
Key Resistance: 1200.20 - 1202.55 - 1205.45 - 1207.23
Key Support: 1197.75 - 1195.25 - 1191.86 - 1188.44
Technical Indicator:
RSI: Indicator shows mixed bearish trend.
Moving Average: SMA 55 (1200.35) strong resistance & SMA 100(1197.28), SMA 200(1195.45) strong support for Gold today.
Technical Trade Idea:
Most Likely Scenario: short positions below 1205.45 with targets at 1195.25 & 1188.44 in extension.
Alternative scenario: Long above 1205.50 look for further upside with 1207.23 & 1210.55 as targets.
Overall, In the absence of any convincing, clear-cut catalyst the markets have been in consolidation mode. Cleary the markets are attaching a whole lot of significance to tonight’s NFP print as the markets have remained range bound as trader know the outcome of tonight’s data can significantly shape the market’s rate hike expectations and the near-term outlook for the USD. So indeed, there a lot riding on tonight employment data. Failing any USD surprises, expect current tight ranges to persist ahead of tonight’s data.
Volume and volatility are light after three days of heightened activity earlier this week. The market has held up considerably well this week in the wake of a stronger U.S. Dollar and rapidly rising U.S. Treasury yields. Perhaps the market is being underpinned by speculators betting the Fed will lose control of inflation.The direction of the market today is likely to be determined by trader reaction to the U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls report, due to be released at 1230 GMT.
Thanks
YoCryptoManic
Gold looking for commentary on monetary policy todayFX_IDC:XAUUSD
Technical Overview:
Pivot: 1202.20 (CMP 1199)
Key Resistance: 1200.10 - 1203.45 - 1207.66 - 1210.20
Key Support: 1196.35 - 1193.79 - 1191.55 - 1189.25
Technical Indicator:
Moving Average: SMA 55 (1199.66) strong resistance & SMA 100(1194.48) & SMA 200(1195.36) strong support today for Gold. According to high volume moving indicator shows upside bias.
RSI: The indicator shows downside momentum, moving around 50 level.
Technical Trade Idea:
Most Likely Scenario: short positions below 1202.20 with targets at 1194.55 & 1189.25 in extension.
Alternative scenario: above 1202.20 look for further upside with 1205.20 & 1208.55 as targets.
Overall,Two factors likely contributed to the market’s weakness on Wednesday. Firstly, an easing of tensions between Italy and the European Union encouraged investors to dump their safe-haven long positions. Secondly, a soaring U.S. Dollar pressured foreign demand for dollar-denominated gold.
The U.S. Dollar was supported early in the session on Wednesday after the ADP National Employment Report showed private payrolls jumped by 230,000 jobs in September, posting its largest gain since February.
Shortly after the release of the jobs data, the greenback extended its gains after the Institute for Supply Management’s (ISM) non-manufacturing activity index jumped 3.1 points to 61.6 last month, the highest reading since August 1997.
Fed Chair Jerome Powell also made supportive comments. He added to the bullish tone for the U.S. Dollar when he said on Wednesday that the central bank may raise interest rates above an estimated “neutral” setting as the “remarkably positive” U.S. economy continues to grow.
In other news, tensions eased in Europe on Wednesday on reports that Italy plans to reduce its budget deficit over the next three years.
While the long-term view remains bearish because of the hawkish Fed, gold does remain vulnerable to short-term upswings if the situation between Italy and the European Union escalates.
In the U.S. on Thursday, investors will get the opportunity to react to three more economic reports and a speech from a U.S. FOMC member.
FOMC Member Randal Quarles is also scheduled to speak. Investors will be looking for commentary on monetary policy especially his opinion on inflation and the labor market. He may also offer his opinion on the pace of future interest rate hikes.
Thanks
YoCryptoManic
Gold move under $1205.90 will signal the presence of sellersXAUUSD Technical Overview:
Pivot: 1201.20
Key Support: 1200.10 - 1198.45 - 1194.89 - 1191.23
Key Resistance: 1205.45 - 1207.55 - 1210.85 - 1214.75
Technical Indicator:
RSI: The indicator having bearish divergence.
Moving Average: SMA 55(1194.55) SMA 100(1191.75) & SMA 200(1195.78) strong support for Gold today.
Technical Trade View:
Most Likely Scenario: long @ 1206.10 with targets @ 1211.00 & 1217.00 in extension.
Alternative scenario: below 1201.30 look for further downside with 1197.50 & 1194.00 as targets.
Overall, Gold prices have been aggressively rallying overnight. Rather odd that the USD is not leading this move that has triggered a significant and very convincing short squeeze. Remember that according to CFTC data GOLD speculative net positioning increased to its highest since December 2001 as prices declined for a sixth straight month in September. Accounts sold an additional 6,804 contracts in the week to September 25, according to the latest CFTC data published last Friday, bringing total net short positions to 17,648, the most since the week of December 11 2001.
Gold has moved higher overnight primarily driven by the return of safe-haven appeal, keeping Italy risks in mind. Interesting I was discussing that fact yesterday, that in the past when we were not dealing with a strong USD narrative, Gold would pop $15-20 higher in a heartbeat on EU contagion fears.
Sometimes, it’s easy to be blind to the facts, especially when getting so accustomed to positioning gold off the US dollar moves. But with l tightness in Copper markets influencing the base metal complex higher. There’s likely some knock-on effect from that correlation as well; indeed, shorts are being caught out on this one, and weaker near-term stops above $1200 level are probably contributing the flow. But for a specific technical trigger, commodity traders were focusing a Gold cross currency relationship, and it was the break of Gold vs EUR 1030 that triggered the short position carnage.
Thanks
YoCryptoManic
Gold should continue to ride the Fed-driven roller coaster lowerXAUUSD Technical Overview:
Pivot: 1187.55
Key Resistance: 1196.45 - 1198.20 - 1200.0 - 1205.23
Key Support: 1191.73 - 1189.66 - 1185.00 - 1181.53
Technical Indicator:
Moving Average: SMA 200 (1196.20) strong resistance & SMA 55 (1188.26) strong support for Gold today.
RSI: The RSI moving into overbought condition soon, now moving around 68 level in 1H chart.
Technical Trade Idea:
Most Likely Scenario: long positions above 1187.55 with targets at 1197.75 & 1200.00 in extension.
Alternative scenario: below 1187.55 look for further downside with 1184.89 & 1181.53 as targets.
Bullish Scenario
A sustained move over $1193.90 will indicate the presence of buyers. If this generates enough upside momentum then look for a possible surge into $1200.00 to $1205.90. The market could begin to really take-off if buyers can overcome $1205.90 with conviction.
Bearish Scenario
A sustained move under $1193.90 will signal the presence of sellers. If the move is accompanied by strong volume then look for the selling to extend into $1187.50, followed by $1184.30.
US ISM Manufacturing: Slowdown in September - Wells Fargo
Gold should continue to ride the Fed-driven roller coaster lower
"Gold should continue to ride the Fed-driven roller coaster lower, after the FOMC raise," rates as expected at the September meeting and kept the dot plots trajectory largely unaltered. Mr. Powell and friends lifted the long-run dot and went to great lengths to say that dropping any reference to "accommodative" in the communique did not mean that they will be straying from their previously announced plan for no," analysts at TD Securities explained.
Thanks
YoCryptoManic
Yellow Metal Gold Weaken After China Cancels Trade MeetingXAUUSD Technical Overview:
Pivot: $1200.20
Key Resistance: $1199.85 - $1204.28 - $1207.47 - $1211.89
Key Support: $1194.33- $1191.56 - $1188.00 - $1186.66
Day Trading Range: $1204 - $1186
Technical Indicator:
RSI: The indicator lacks upside momentum, moving below 50 level.
Moving Average: SMA 100 ($1199.65), SMA 200 ($1198.45), SMA 50 ($1201.50) strong resistance for Gold today.
Technical Trade Idea:
Most Likely Scenario: short positions below 1200.20 with targets at 1193.25 & 1189.85 in extension.
Alternative scenario: above 1200.20 look for further upside with 1204.55 & 1207.10 as targets.
Overall,Driving the price action in gold last week was the U.S. Dollar. For most of the week, gold was underpinned by a weaker U.S. Dollar. On Friday, however, gold managed to give back all of its weekly gains when the dollar rebounded to the upside. Driving the U.S. Dollar’s price action was the investor response to fresh tariffs by the U.S. and China.
The trade dispute and the dollar will continue to drive the price action in gold this week. However, this week, the dollar could strengthen and gold could weaken. This is because China called off the trade talks with the United States and said it wouldn’t meet with high level negotiators until after the November mid-term elections.
Also contributing to the movement in gold will be the outcome of this week’s two-day Federal Open Market Committee meeting which culminates with the Fed’s interest rate and monetary policy decision on Wednesday, September 26.
Although the Fed is widely expected to raise its benchmark interest rate during the meeting, gold traders will be primarily focused on the direction the Fed will chart ahead. Traders essentially want to know how aggressive the Fed will be in increasing rates in the future.
Thanks
YoCryptoManic
European Session Gold keen observing "sensitive US dollar"XAUUSD Technical Overview:
Pivot: $1197.10
Day Trading Range: $1194 - $1214
Key Resistance: $1204.45 - $1207.29 - $1212.66 - $1218.89
Key Support: $1197.10 - $1194.22 - $1191.45 - $1189.56
Technical Indicator:
RSI: RSI lacks downside momentum, trading above 50 level.
Moving Average: SMA200($1198.94) & SMA100($1200.48) strong support for xauusd today.
Technical Trade Idea:
Most Likely Scenario: long positions above 1197.10 with targets at 1205.50 & 1207.56 in extension.
Alternative scenario: below 1197.10 look for further downside with 1194.50 & 1189.45 as targets.
Overall, Gold remains in a sideways consolidation between 1214 and 1182 but is making the case for a break higher according to the bullish symmetrical triangle. For bulls to get back control, whereby the market is heavily short of gold and to reconsider its positioning, (net speculative short positions, or bets an asset’s price will fall, in gold, are up 275% year to date), then they need to get and hold above the 50-D SMA at 1211 first, then 1214 which is resistance and then the 200-W SMA at 1233 will need to be challenged. A retry of the downside now should target 1146/20 monthly levels.
Fundamentally, the intensifying U.S.-China trade dispute is the driver ahead of next week's FOMC meeting. However, we have only seen modest moves in the greenback so far and markets, in fact, took the trade headlines in their stride. Even with President Donald Trump announcing $200 billion tariffs against China on Monday that provoked an expected and swift retaliation from the nation, fear has yet to really show up in the market and the US benchmarks were higher with the DJIA making another all-time record high.
Thanks
YoCryptoManic
European Session "Golden Eye" on WarXAUUSD Technical Overview:
Day Trading Range: $1188.85 - $1207.27
Pivot: $1202
Key Resistance: $1202 - $1205.35 - $1207.89 - $1212.33
Key Support: $1196.28 - $1194.69 - $1191.89 - $1189.21
Technical Indicators:
RSI: Indicator is confusing where to go, moving around 50 level, trend downward (See chart RSI).
MACD: MacD is having negative volume for xauusd.
Moving Avg: SMA55 ($1198.74) strong support & SMA200 ($1199.78) which is CMP (time of writing).
Technical Idea:
Most Likely Scenario: short positions below 1202.00 with targets at 1196.28 & 1192.20 in extension.
Alternative scenario: above 1202.00 look for further upside with 1205.85 & 1208.65 as targets.
Overall Review:
Trade war fears continue to be a major issue as well, which almost certainly looks likely to pick up a bit. We think that the Gold markets will continue to be very range bound, with the $1195 level underneath the be supportive, and the $1215 level above should be resistive. Overall, this is a market that we think should continue to see volatility, but we also recognize that we are more than likely going to move with the US dollar, as we have seen for some time now. we think at this point though, it’s probably easier to short this market at higher levels than anything else, because the move has been extended so rapidly during the day on Monday.
Thanks
YoCryptoManic
European Session XAUUSD fear from $XAUUSD Technical Overview:
Pivot: $1197.20
Day Trading Range: $1200 - $1186
Key Resistance: $1196.44 - $1200.00 - $1205.89
Key Support: $1193.35 - $1189.56 - $1186.78
Technical Indicators:
Moving Avg: SMA100 ($1198.33) & SMA200($1200.12) strong resistance for the day.
MACD: MacD is having low buyer volume and try to get seller volume soon.
Most Likely Scenario: short positions below 1197.25 with targets at 1192.00 & 1187.50 in extension.
Alternative scenario: above 1197.25 look for further upside with 1200.00 & 1202.00 as targets.
Fundamental:
Yellow Metal continue to be held hostage to the US dollar which can’t seem to get its direction Set. This has a lot to do with emerging markets and of course the global trade issues, and as a result the gaining US dollar continues to weigh upon the Gold markets overall. If that’s going to be the case, I think that the market will probably continue to offer selling opportunities on rallies, and that’s probably how you should play this market.
Thanks
YoCryptoManic
Yellow Metal Struggling After US Job DataXAUUSD
Pivot: 1198.00
Day Trading Range : $1186.45 - $ 1198.89
Key Resistance: $1196.45 - $1198.89 - $1204.00
Key Support: $1189.56 - $1186.45 - $1182.27
Technical Indicator:
Moving Avg: SMA1100($1196.60) & SMA200($1204.16) both are strong resistance for yellow metal for the day.
MACD: MacD having negative volume for Gold.
Most Likely Scenario: short positions below 1198.00 with targets at 1193.25 & 1190.00 in extension.
Alternative scenario: above 1198.00 look for further upside with 1203.00 & 1207.00 as targets.
Fundamental:
Gold futures closed lower last week with the selling pressure attributed to safe-haven buying of the U.S. Dollar and a jump in Treasury yields fueled by stronger-than-expected U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls data. The selling could have been worse, however.
Bullish speculators seem to believe that the Fed is moving closer to neutrality, which means the dollar is not likely to strengthen very much. Additionally, safe haven buyers are also taking positions in the Japanese Yen and Swiss Franc. If you trade the relationship between gold and the Dollar Index and your bullish gold, all you’re hoping for is a rally in the Euro.
Thanks
YoCryptoManic
Short GoldHeading into KS i see Rejection to upside and good Bearish PA.
Good to Sell below TS and Target 1259.50 Stop would be Candle Close above KS high.
Gold : Bearish Flag Formation, Breakout Nearing ?!As usual, our style of Trading : Downside Breakout only if bearish flag works in XAUUSD
But its bearish flag, so prefer downside Breakout
We Enter Breakout direction with proper stops
On False Break , Reverse the trade
During volatile times there will be single directional breakouts only
