SHP
Shoprite still showing downside despite the bounceHead and Shoulders formed on SHP.
It broke below the neckline and now its been coming down on the downtrend.
We can expect the bounce up, before the downside.
200>21>7 - Bearish
RSI<50
Target R177.11
CONCERNS: The JSE ALSI is setting itself for upside due to the Symmetrical Triangle.
This might cause a disturbance in shorts with retailers but right now the bias remains short.
Shoprite showing strong downside to come to R177.11Head and Shoulders has formed on Shoprite and the price has broken below the neckline.
200>21>7 - Bearish
RSI<50
Target R177.11
CONCERNS:
I don't like shorting strong companies generally especially when the JSE ALSI 40 is on a strong uptrend.
Revenue growth is up 17.20%
Net income Growth is up 14.70%
Average annual Revenue growth (15yr) up 11.08%
Net Margin is 3%
but ROE is -24.97%.
So it's unusual to see downside for this retail giant. But anyways, charts are charts and we have a plan in place.
JSE:SHP Shoprite Up Thrust and Failed TestShoprite had a push to break the yearly pivot point with some volume but after a the upthrust (UT) there has been two lower volume test that has failed. A large reversal bar yesterday also indicates the path lower is open now. We are likely to test the 10000 level and potentially breaking it. This looks like a backup (BU) after the breakout of the previous trading range (see posts below)
SHP breaking trendJSE:SHP has been in a downward trend since mid September. It broke through the resistance level on the 9th of October and it went back down to test the level as support. If it breaks the high of the 13th of October, I will consider a long position up to the previous high of the top of the trend.
Shoprite Holdings LTD - Discount, Discount"Volume Weighted Average Price (VWAP) is the ratio of the value traded to total volume traded over a particular time horizon. It is a measure of the average price at which a stock is traded over the trading horizon." Wikipedia. (Blue Lines).
I use a rule of thumb, never buy/long above vwap and never sell/short bellow vwap. Technically we are below the higher timeframe vwap's but we want the best price we can get on lower timeframes IF a reversal happens here, so we risk a trade setup finding undervalued prices at certain levels.
This could potentially lead into a nice long term trade. Just use risk management and watch for that area in yellow circle. After that, you don't want to be in the trade anymore.
Let's see!
Cup-and-handle pattern on ShopriteShoprite hasn't had the best year. In March it created a high of R281.90 and then proceeded to crash all the way to R174.50. Interestingly enough however, Shoprite has created a cup-and-handle pattern over the past two months.
This is a common bullish pattern and indicates a change in trend.
If you look at the chart above, you can see how Shoprite formed the "cup" part of the pattern during September and October. This was followed by a slight correction in November which created the "handle".
There is also a clear bullish divergence on the MACD. For this reason I will be going long.
Action: Place a Limit order to BUY at R205 with a Stop Loss set at R190. I will aim to take profit at R220 and R230 respectively.
Margin: 10%
Gearing: 10.00x
Gain: +121.95%
Risk: -73.17%
Trade Idea - Shoprite (SHP)From a fundamental perspective, I see SHP as a buy.
This year has been hard on SA consumers so far. With an increase in tax, SA consumers are left with a lower disposable income. Inflation is going up, so are interest rate. Never the less, food remains a necessity and therefore we remain confident that food remains a good investment in times of financial difficulty.
Shoprite’s internal inflation was at around 7% a year ago before plunging into negative territory on the back of a stronger ZAR and decreasing global soft commodity prices.
Due to the retail nature of SHP, we remain of our perspective that SHP will continue to take market share and accumulate positive returns for investors and any short-term pullback can be seen as a good entry point to go long in the medium to long term.
Here is what we plan to do:
Buy SHP @ 212-214
TP @ R232
SL @ R205
Long Shire to the upper trend line at ~£50SHP looks like a buy between~£41.75-45.00.
A close below the trend line would make me pretty nervous and I'd probably exit the trade. In the current environment I suspect that with indices at all time highs it would be a macro factor that would trip people out of the trade than a company specific factor.
SHP Shire Possible Gartley SellSHP Shire Possible Gartley Sell
A-B 0.786 retracement of the X-A leg
B-C 0.618 retracement of the A-B leg
C-D Anticipated 1.27 extension of the A-B leg, (and 1:1 measured up-trend move of A-B). Completing around 5426
Entry
5390 - watch and manage, may need to be adjusted to accommodate recent highs of 5330's
Targets
T1 5005 - 0.385 retracement of the A-D move
T2 4820 - 0.618 retracement of the A-D move
Stop
130 (around 5520)
Considerations
Spread can vary on this stock, so adjust entry/exit orders accordingly.