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Shutdown

Republican-led shutdown: What's at Stake for the USD?? Republican-led shutdown: What's at Stake for the USD?? We are four days away from a potential partial government shutdown, and negotiations among lawmakers have yet to produce a resolution. On Monday, Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer, Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, House Speaker Mike Johnson, and House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries meet in the Oval Office with the president and vice president to negotiate the conditions to keep the government operational beyond March 1. Senate Democrats have been expressing frustration, placing blame on House Republicans, particularly criticizing leader Mike Johnson, for the current impasse. Senator Jon Tester, a Montana Democrat, voiced displeasure, stating, "We're doing this every six months. This is bullsh*t.... we need to do what we were elected to do, fund the government, not shut it down," in an interview with CNN. If no resolution is reached, a partial shutdown is set to commence at 12 a.m. on Saturday. Notably, the last time the US government was on the precipice of a shutdown (Sept- Oct 2023), the USD kept strengthening against major partners like the Euro, with the USD being seen as a safe haven play. But last year, there were a few other factors that could have been compounding this USD-buying activity, including the US interest-rate differential and comments from some Fed members making it clear that policy won’t be changing anytime soon. This time, it's maybe not as clear that there are as strong a set of factors pushing for a robust USD.
by BlackBull_Markets
Bitcoin (BTC) technical and fundamental analysisThe price of Bitcoin has entered the 4-hour Imbalance zone, as we warned in all our recent ideas. Consequently, the price has broken above the global descending trendline and moved out of the previous price range. This BTC rally is associated with a significant accumulation of short positions, with the total volume of shorts reaching up to 85% compared to longs. During the upward impulse, short positions totaling over $100 million were liquidated. Currently, we anticipate trading within the 4-hour Imbalance zone to fill gaps in horizontal trading volume levels. If the price fails to consolidate itself above the resistance block, it's likely go to correction of the recent upward impulse to the 0.61-0.78 Fibonacci levels. During this correction, it may also retest EMA50 and the descending trendline. However, if buyers manage to maintain their strength and continue the upward movement, we anticipate a test of the next significant resistance block around the psychological level 30,000. 📉 Global view of the Bitcoin market On the daily logarithmic chart, Bitcoin's price is testing the intersection of the 200-day and 200-week moving averages. If it consolidate above these moving averages, the next target for the upward movement could be a retest of the upward trendline above which lies the 1-week Imbalance zone. In this zone, gaps in horizontal trading volume levels need to be filled. However, to achieve this, buyers will need to overcome the significant resistance block at 30,000-32,000. It's important to note that the RSI indicators on the 4-hour and 1-day timeframes are already entering the oversold territory, indicating a potential trend reversal on the horizon. Additionally, it's worth remembering that the Bitcoin price has not yet fully played out the breakout from the bearish wedge pattern. Furthermore, there hasn't been a proper correction of the entire uptrend since the beginning of this year. These factors suggest that the market may still experience significant volatility and potential price movements in the near future. Traders should closely monitor these and be prepared for various scenarios. Levels long positions: 23,000 - level of the cost zone control point (POC) 22,000 - 0.61 Fibonacci retracement level 20,000 - 0.78 Fibonacci retracement level 17000-19000 - Imbalance zone 1H Levels for short positions: 29,000-30,000 - 0.78 Fibonacci retracement level 32 000-35000 - Imbalance zone 1W 36,000-38,000 - zone of possible retest of the trend line 40,000 - psychological resistance level The index of fear and greed is in the neutral zone - 50. The total capitalization of the cryptocurrency market increased to $1083 billion, and the Bitcoin dominance index increased to 50.53. According to the analysis of the accumulation of large blocks in order books, the supply and demand zones are located at the following levels: 🟢 Demand zone: 20000 - 26000 🔴 Offer zone: 29000 - 32000 📊 Fundamental analysis Historical data has shown that October has traditionally been a favorable month for Bitcoin price growth. Currently, there's an active hashtag campaign on social media called #Uptober, indicating optimism among cryptocurrency enthusiasts for a positive trend in October. Large investors continue to accumulate Bitcoin. According to on-chain analysis, addresses holding between 10 and 10,000 BTC are accumulating coins. This suggests that institutional investors remain bullish on Bitcoin. In the world of U.S. politics, a compromise bill was passed, preventing a government shutdown at least until November 17th. This news has provided support to all risk asset markets, including cryptocurrencies. The American stock market initially responded to this news with a slight upward impulse in the S&P500 index, but it was later overshadowed by a decline. Meanwhile, the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) continues to rise. These factors highlight the dynamic and interconnected nature of the financial markets, with political developments, institutional interest, and seasonal patterns all playing a role in influencing market sentiment and asset prices. 🌐 Upcoming macroeconomic events The following dates are expected to bring increased volatility in both the stock and cryptocurrency markets: ➤ October 3rd at 17:00 - Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) data for August. ➤ October 12th at 15:30 - U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI). ➤ November 1st at 21:00 - New Federal Reserve interest rate decision.
by TradeINEX
⚡️ Gov SHUTDOWN?! Market will tank?! What to do in this case? ⚠️⚡️Some shutdown insights with chart: Chart shows longest shutdown: 12/22/18 - 1/25/19 The fear factor has always been PRE-shutdown. Not DURING or POST-shutdown. ⚡️ That means what? If we shutdown, we may dip say 2-3%. But what happens during shutdown? You'd be surprised market actually RECOVERS during shutdown. BY A LOT. During the shutdown in 2018-2019, the market recovered the ENTIRE DIP, whole +15%. That's the same thing that happened in 2013. The market rose 3% during shutdown. ⚡️ So is shutdown really bad for markets? No. Only shutdown fears really cause a dramatic effect BEFORE it happens. Remember the psychology of "priced in". Once a shutdown happens and market reacts for a day or 2, it's priced in. ⚡️ But why? After the shutdown happens, anything is good news. If they announce a deal, that's good news. If they vote, that's good news. Thus, market does well during shutdowns. Good luck. 🙂 AMEX:SPY NASDAQ:QQQ NASDAQ:TSLA NASDAQ:AAPL AMEX:DIA
AMEX:SPY
by kingdips
6
USDJPY Short? BoJ Intervention and US Gov Shutdown RisksOn Monday, the USDJPY dollar hit an 11-month peak, a move triggered by the Federal Reserve's recent signaling of another potential interest rate hike and an intention to maintain higher rates for longer. Then, (counter to expectations) the yen faced pressure when the Bank of Japan, on the preceding Friday, decided to maintain its ultra-low interest rates and its commitment to support the economy until sustainable inflation reaches its 2% target. This decision indicated that the central bank was in no hurry to phase out its extensive stimulus program. Traders had been looking for some kind of hint as to when the BoJ would start to dial back its support. Wishful thinking, I guess. The Japanese yen is currently hovering near the 150 mark, a level some traders consider critical to prompt intervention by Japanese authorities, similar to actions taken last year. But can the USDJPY even reach 150 with a potential US shutdown on the horizon? Starting on October 1, hundreds of thousands of US government workers face furloughs if Congress fails to pass a funding bill. The House is set to reconvene after last week's recess, aiming to continue budget negotiations. If a federal government shutdown occurs, the publication of crucial US economic data, such as employment and inflation report vital for policymakers and traders, will be indefinitely suspended too. So maybe the downside risk is ever-present even without the threat of BoJ intervention? 145.164 is the immediate support that might fall to the bears. 138.312 is the next target, but can a US government shutdown force the price down to this level over one day like an intervention might? Maybe this level is an intermediate term risk rather than short term?
by BlackBull_Markets
BTC's Possible Double-TOP ⚠️ 🐻 ⚠️Hi everyone 👋🏽 🕊 Wish y'all have a profitable lifestyle 🍀 📌 BITCOIN /USDT H:4 Chart - Heiken-ashi 📌 PRICE ACTION - Fibbo - Double-Top 📍 Bitcoin may create a double-top after filling the first target of bullish-flag ✍🏼 Straight to the point, Bitcoin may create a possible double-top in H:4 and daily time-frame which can lead the price again to the 44-45k zone ✍🏼 After the vast internet shutdown and failure of centralized plat-forms such as Facebook , WhatsApp and Instagram; Bitcoin and other crypto currencies pumped big in just less than a day. ⚠️ However, from technical-analysis point of view I am just concerned about a double top at 53k price zone. ✍🏼 If the scenario 1 fails, of course BTC is going to see the 57-58k price zone more easily than everyone thinks. ⚠️ RSI in H:4 looks so much in overbought position; more than 80-85 RSI is such a dangerous zone. LINK OF MY BULLISH-FLAG TA IS AVAILABLE BELOW, PLEASE CHECK IT OUT THIS IS NOT A FINANCIAL ADVICE, IT IS JUST MY OPINION
BITMEX:XBTShort
by C_EWAVE13
2
US Markets to See Big PullbackWe've been on quite the bullrun this year. I think it's time to go short. Technically: For the first time this year, we have fallen below the 50ema on the Daily and failed to recover above it. We normally recover same day or next but its been 6 trading days below the 50ema. We made a lower low in June which signaled a sign of weakness in the uptrend. Now we are again making another low below August 19th low. I think its time we retest some support levels. Fundamentally: - Fed has talked about tapering and possibly raising rates buy EOY/early next year - Covid Delta variant is on the rise, raising fear in multiple countries - US Congress has not yet voted on the Federal Budget and will most likely go into a Government Shutdown next month. - China cracking down on Tech + Evergrande 300b default is likely to make some waves globally Levels to watch: - ~34000 (July Low) - ~33200 (May High, June Low, 200 ema) - ~31200 (New year consolidation range) - ~29600 (Pre-covid High, Feb Low)
OANDA:US30USDShort
by dbryan
1
Overproduction, greed and a lack of shippingThis is a production chart and the last of my economic charts. I want to take a second to think back to 2020 here. The world shut down, when it reopened the Suez Canal got blocked, shipping is still no where near recovered. The rich are pulling PMs off the Comex as a silver squeeze happened, and a lack of shipping on top of this and scalpers lead to SO MUCH tech not being available. Is till can't get a new GPU or PS5 AT ALL. then you had massive food issues, droughts, oil pipeline attacks in America and the middle east, incompetent world leaders and fighting between nations and soooooo much more. It's of no surprise to me that bond investors my be getting spooked, on the other hand, with great risk comes the potential for great reward. Just something to think about the next time you order fast food and find only one person working 60+ orders or order something from amazon and find it got lost in that black hole never to be seen until you get on their case. My next charts will be a few TA on some of my favorite crypto, MEME coins and stocks and what I have been looking at for trades afterwards
FRED:BUSINV
by Joshuakm
It's cold in the US and EU 🥶! 1 year covid crash anniversary.The market prices info in a few days or weeks before it happens (not surprises obviously - only politicians trade those see Nancy Pelosi and Tesla for reference, as well as Hilary Clinton making 10 million percent or something on cattle futures making her the greatest trader of all time). If there is no advantage to predicting things when they are being talked about by decision makers, 10 days before they are announced, we have to predict it even earlier! Before the clueless decision makers even talk about it. We speculate on what speculators are going to speculate in the future. So, obviously this MAY happen. Last time there was a covid surge everything dropped to the ground 📉. And so I'm not sure how viruses work, well no one knows honestly, lots of ignorant journalists THINK they do but they know the least of them all. But what I saw is that states and countries in the north or far south (Argentina etc) generally had more deaths than those closer to the equator. What is happening is that since the Biden inauguration - just stating a fact, not speculating on why this is the case chill - the US & EU have relaxed their covid measures. And it is getting so cold, all of a sudden, it's hard for bodies to adapt, plus colder places have more deaths. And funny thing is the states that took less restrictive measures, and who for now have less deaths than surrounding states with economic shutdown, are located in areas that are going to get cold 🌨️🌨️🌨️. So what may happen is this: 1- The cold might lead to a spike in deaths 2- Oklahoma, Texas, Arkansas, and more, will get hit hard, and people that "take covid seriously" and paranoid people will tell them "told you so" and push for an economic shutdown, Biden has already signed dozens of executive orders so he might sign a few others what difference does it make at that point? 3- France that said "ok for now we are not restricting your liberties more, restaurants might re-open" will now say "hey it's getting worse so let's do like we did last year", the UK that already got hit hard with "their" variant (less severe BUT more contagious) will get hit even harder and so it will go into complete panic mode, spread fear to Europe and the US, lots of decisions will be taken in hindsight AFTER the worse is over (which will confirm in their eyes the measures are efficient 🤦‍♂️) 4- Markets will crash 5- Typical confirmation bias & anchoring bias & neglect of probability & oversimplification tendency & all the trading bias: If clueless politicians keep taking hindsight decisions AFTER cases & death waves it will always look like it was efficient and stopped the spread, good luck to the 150+ IQ top scientists explaining them that, way too subtle for the average voter to understand, so you already know this will be the dogma and become a recurring thing. Since I mentioned biases, this is the list 😀: Taken from here: www.magellangroup.com.au Good article I'm already short Bitcoin, and I'm getting ready to exit my Tech100 long if things go south.
TVC:DJIShort
by MrRenev
2
100 YEARS OF GLOBAL CRISES, PANDEMIA, RECESSION and DEPRESSIONHere is the modern 100 years history of Human Being. Starting from WW1-Depression-WW2-ColdWar-DotComBubble-FinancialCrisis-COVID Will the history repeats again with Crash and Recovery? On chart I pointed with 1&2 phases of history is from 1915 to 2001 and from 2001 to current. Chart as image: 1. The Great Depression, World War II, Cold War, Dot Com Bubble The Great Depression began in the United States after a significant drop in stock prices, which began around September 4, 1929, and became world news after the stock market crash on October 29, 1929 (known as Black Tuesday). Between 1929 and 1932, global gross domestic product (GDP) declined by about 15%. In comparison, global GDP fell by less than 1% from 2008 to 2009 during the Financial Crisis. Some economies began to recover by the mid-30s. However, in many countries, the negative effects of the Great Depression continued until the outbreak of World War II. The Great Depression had devastating consequences in both rich and poor countries. Personal income, tax revenue, profits and prices fell, and international trade fell by more than 50%. Unemployment in the United States rose to 23%, and in some countries rose to 33%. Cities around the world have been hit hard, especially those that depend on heavy industry. Construction was virtually halted in many countries. Agricultural communities and rural areas suffered as crop prices fell by about 60%. Faced with a sharp drop in demand with several alternative sources of jobs, the most affected areas are those dependent on primary sector industries such as mining and logging. What stocks survived the Great Depression? Electric Boat Company gained +55,000% from 1932 to 1954, topping this interesting list of the top-10 performing Great Depression Stocks. Electric Boat (Defense; +55,000% Return) ... Truax Traer Coal (Coal; +30,503%) ... Spicer Manufacturing (Auto; +26,221%) ... Zenith Radio (Radios, Televisions; +24,146%) World War II , also called Second World War, conflict that involved virtually every part of the world during the years 1939–45. The principal belligerents were the Axis powers—Germany, Italy, and Japan—and the Allies—France, Great Britain, the United States, the Soviet Union, and, to a lesser extent, China. The war was in many respects a continuation, after an uneasy 20-year hiatus, of the disputes left unsettled by World War I. The 40,000,000–50,000,000 deaths incurred in World War II make it the bloodiest conflict, as well as the largest war, in history. Cold War , the open yet restricted rivalry that developed after World War II between the United States and the Soviet Union and their respective allies. The Cold War was waged on political, economic, and propaganda fronts and had only limited recourse to weapons. The result in 1989 was a wave of revolutions that (with the exception of Romania) peacefully overthrew all of the communist governments of Central and Eastern Europe. The Communist Party of the Soviet Union itself lost control in the Soviet Union and was banned following an abortive coup attempt in August 1991. The dot-com bubble (also known as the dot-com boom, the tech bubble, and the Internet bubble) was a stock market bubble caused by excessive speculation in Internet-related companies in the late 1990s, a period of massive growth in the use and adoption of the Internet. There are various ways to measure the amount of wealth that was annihilated when the bubble burst. As early as November 2000, CNNFN pegged the losses at $1.7 trillion What companies survived the dot com bubble? Here are some companies which survived the dot-com bubble. Amazon (NASDAQ: AMZN) +45000% Return since 2001 eBay (NASDAQ: EBAY) +1700% return Apple (NASDAQ: APPL) +36000% return 2. The Financial Crisis of 2007–08, COVID-19 recession, the Great Shutdown Financial crisis of 2007–08 , also called subprime mortgage crisis, severe contraction of liquidity in global financial markets that originated in the United States as a result of the collapse of the U.S. housing market. It threatened to destroy the international financial system; caused the failure (or near-failure) of several major investment and commercial banks, mortgage lenders, insurance companies, and savings and loan associations; and precipitated the Great Recession (2007–09), the worst economic downturn since the Great Depression (1929–c. 1939). The U.S. government then came out with National Economic Stabilization Act of 2008, which created a corpus of $700 billion to purchase distressed assets, especially mortgage-backed securities. Different governments came out with their versions of bailout packages, government guarantees and outright nationalization. The financial crisis of 2007-08 has taught us that the confidence of the financial market, once shattered, can't be quickly restored. In an interconnected world, a seeming liquidity crisis can very quickly turn into a solvency crisis for financial institutions, a balance of payment crisis for sovereign countries and a full-blown crisis of confidence for the entire world. But the silver lining is that, after every crisis in the past, markets have come out strong to forge new beginnings with some kind of turnaround. A small selection of investors even profited from the crisis. The coronavirus recession, also known as the COVID-19 recession, the Great Shutdown, or the Great Lockdown , is a major global recession which arose as an economic consequence of the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic. The first major sign of the coronavirus recession was the 2020 stock market crash on 20 February, and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) reported on 14 April that all of the G7 nations had already entered or were entering into a "deep recession" and that there had already been a significant slowdown of growth in emerging economies. IMF projections suggest that the coronavirus recession will be the most severe global economic downturn since the Great Depression, and that it will be "far worse" than the Great Recession of 2009. The pandemic has led to more than a third of the world's population being placed on lockdown to stop the spread of COVID-19. It has caused severe repercussions for economies across the world, following soon after a global economic slowdown during 2019 that saw stagnation of stock markets and consumer activity worldwide. This recession has seen unusually high and rapid increases in unemployment in many countries, and the inability in the United States for state-funded unemployment insurance computer systems and processes to keep up with applications. The United Nations (UN) predicted in April 2020 that global unemployment will wipe out 6.7 per cent of working hours globally in the second quarter of 2020—equivalent to 195 million full-time workers. In western nations, unemployment is expected to be at around 10%, with more severely affected nations from the COVID-19 pandemic having higher unemployment rates. The developing world is also being affected by a drop in remittances. The recession saw a drop in the price of oil triggered by the 2020 Russia–Saudi Arabia oil price war, the collapse of tourism, the hospitality industry, the energy industry and a significant downturn in consumer activity in comparison to the previous decade. Global stock markets crashed around 20 to 30% during late February and March 2020, respectively. During the crash, global stock markets made unprecedented and volatile swings, mainly due to extreme uncertainty in the markets. 👉 So many people claiming for next crisis/recession and global shit to happen, but: 👉 General question, are you really want this to happen? Stay profitable this is Artem Crypto
TVC:DJI
by ArShevelev
15
BITCOIN APRIL UPDATEDo you like Coins? Do you like Bitcoins? Do you like Gains, maybe even sick gainz? Then I welcome you to this April update! I expect to visit 8600 area, to continue a bear motivated sideways trend, until we retest the latest low of 3600! Maybe we will bounce, go sideways and climb up again- or maybe we will bounce, restest the already weakened support of 3600 and dip lower...But important: 8600 area, the go down and see at least a 5 as the first number of the BTC price! We are discussing the current situation of Bitcoin in the perspective of the global economy, but also not missing on Technical Analysis! I hope you enjoy this one, I was thinking about getting more into major world indexes and making like all-around summary videos about the world economy and/or specific stocks and assets? What do you think, let me know in the commentary section or simply DM me, best, you german quality trader
BITMEX:BTCUSD.PShort
by GER-Quality-Trades
2
ORBEX: Will the US Avoid A Gov Shutdown This Year?In this market insights, I talk about the reason #FX Majors were muted; on the back of a shift to riskier assets i.e. the equities I dive into euro, pound, dollar and the safe-haven yen to provide you with my short-term analysis. I also talk about what to focus on for the rest of the week and with crunch talks around the allocation of US’s $1.3tn spending continuing, it is certainly going to be an interesting one as fears of another shutdown linger! Timestamps for each pair: EURUSD 1H 01:30 USDJPY 1H 03:40 GBPUSD 1H 05:00 Stavros Tousios Head of Investment Research Orbex This analysis is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice.
by Orbex
SP500 big fall coming SP500 is destined to reach the key resistance before it can determine whether the trend is bullish or bearish. After the December crash, the price is almost completely absorbing the losses and is moving towards the EMA200 passing through the 2690 points: this is the level that will determine the future of this index for the first months of 2019: an upward break will ensure that SP500 can reach the next key resistance ( the one placed at 2815 points) in a few sessions and then try to stretch towards the previous highest level; a rejection by that level will mark the beginning of a new corrective wave that should end with the reaching of the support area at about 2200 points. So far, with the current fundamental scenario the second hypothesis is the most probable. As soon as there are both technical and fundamental confirmations, we will position ourselves in the market. Join us for further analysis on: Instagram : www.instagram.com Telegram: t.me Facebook Page: www.facebook.com Web: www.bfcminvest.com
SP:SPXShort
by BFCMInvest
Long descending Downtrend holds onGood afternoon, With the US TECH 100 nearly exactly hitting the estimated peak of 6720 and bouncing off of it, as well as the daily Candle being a Graveyard Dojii, it seems as if the Downtrend will definitely go on. With daily candle tommorow that lays below ours, the trend change would get verirified. Considering all of the bad News we`re currently having and an Uptrend of roughly 3 weeks now it all makes sense from an Economical, as well as an political standpoint that the Indices will Fall. In the following days, it`ll be important to look at the VIX as well as to what Trump will say considering the Shutdown. It could very well be, that once the Shutdown is over all of the bad News get dropped immediatly and the market will have a Huge drop. Still, we never know what`s coming. But if the daily candle tommorow closes below ours, it is fair to assume the Downtrend will go on. My next 2 major Resistances are shown in the Trend. -Aaron Akkuzu #shutdown #Brexit
TVC:NDQ
by AaronAkkuzu
Rough day in Crude oil - not every day can be peaches & creamToday was not a good day for me day trading Crude Oil. I find it very helpful when i write up these publications as it helps me see where I made my mistakes and hopefully I correct poor behavior. So indulge me here as I walk you through how I ended up losing $330 on the day (sim). .Because of the holiday atmosphere (and roll issues relating to May contract expiry) I did not trade my combine today but rather just put trades on in my practice account. Regardless of sim vs. live, I consider every trade I do 'live' so when I fail in my practice account I consider it a fail. Now on to the trades. I woke late (not a good sign in itself) and saw I missed the first BoT long setup off the double bottom registered through the Globex session. In classic FOMO fashion I took the first BoT setup that came on a greater than 33% correction in price. I, of course, assumed the bull market would go on endlessly. The setup was poor (at best) and I later realized it was on a bear momentum divergence (holy rookie mistake batman!).That long represented way too much risk (23 ticks) and I simply could never consider taking that amount of risk on a 'live' trade why I thought it was ok to do in the practice account eludes me. In hindsight one can see why we shouldn't take that amount of risk on any one trade. Anyway, that stop was hit and now I was 23 ticks in the hole. I must admit, I hastily stalked another setup to get revenge (another bad sign) and took the first BoT short that came along shortly thereafter. Again, looking back in hindsight, momentum itself was on the upswing when I put the short on and later did 'top' out - well after I was stopped out. So now 0/2 and down 32 ticks on the day. Even though it is just a practice account, I resigned myself to the fact that I just wasn't seeing the market correctly today and shut down operations. Sadder too, I see now a respectable BoT long setup working that I just simply could not consider taking. Hopefully while you read this you see similar trading mistakes made on your own part and can learn from a 'veteran' that we all make them. No matter how long you have done this, nor how 'rich' you are, a trader is always prone to making mistakes. How we learn/grow from those mistakes is what separates the pro's from the amateurs. Cheers, Brian aka CRInvestor
FX:USOIL
by CRInvestor
1