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Si1! (Silver Futures)

Silver's testing a historical techical pivot, NFPs/Fed in focusSilver prices have retreated in August, but the rally so far in 2016 provided several technical buy signals earlier this year. These signals suggested at the time that the market's stance on silver, and precious metals in general, was shifting despite the continued backdrop of another possible Fed rate hike (still really low rates!). Today, silver has tested a huge technical level at $18.50 that should not be ignored. It's tempting to initiate long positions above this pivot, which has served as both resistance and support since 2013, but such a strategy obviously depends on a rally at the end of the week following the US non-farm payrolls report. If you are to trade silver before then, I suggest making sure you have adequately calculated your expected loss in case of a breach below $18.30 (or $18.00 if you have more risk appetite). Theoretically, renewed buying pressures above $18.50 after this week (poor NFPs > delayed Fed hike) would suggest the end of the current price correction with a rally back up to $20.60 in September (and possibly fresh highs during the 4th quarter). A break below would give us a more neutral technical situation with a possible test of the 200-DMA, which is currently at $16.40). I would be less inclined to follow such a continued correction as I much prefer the current clarity that the support at $18.50 provides given the overall uptrend since the start of the year.
FX:XAGUSD
by ABRAK75
2
Silver 3peat?Just trying to spot patterns and it would be interesting ... and hopefully profitable if this pattern continues - Rally off long term supportive TL rejected twice at (A) high -> pulled back to (A) 50% fib - Subsequent rally got to (A) 1.618 breaking through (B) high but failing to push above (C) high --> pulled back to (C) 50% fib - Subsequent rally got above (A) 2.618 and almost to (C) 1.618 but failing to push above (D) high ---> ??? pull back to (D) 50% fib ???
COMEX:SI1!Short
by Genghis
4
Silver July'16Bullish metals and maybe its because I've missed out on this recent rally but the Range Recoil model predications a medium probability of a decent upcoming correction. Unlikely i'll trade the short but view this more as a clear out of the bulls and hopefully an opportunity to get long at good levels. RangeA Jan15 - Dec15 18.50-13.60 RangeB Nov15 - Dec15 16.35-13.60 For RangeA the recent rally has but this close to the 1.618 potential resistance. RangeB broke north and rally exactly to 1.618 pulled back to RangeB 50% and recent move took levels to RangeB 2.618% resistance. Similar behaviour on both ranges; rallied to test highs and pulled sub 50% fib. Range 2 did this twice. Model therefore predicts a correction to $15-16 before we head $22-25+ With all the attention and optimise for metals it seems tough to envisage such an aggressive pull back to the 50% fibs but then again this over zealous interest is probably the perfect setting to clear out weak length.
COMEX:SI1!
by Genghis