If you're bullish on precious metals, give preference to silver***Please note that this chart is of the Silver/Gold ratio, not the Gold/Silver ratio as is indicated on the chart. Apologies for any confusion.
The Silver/Gold ratio hit a very familiar zone that is worth taking a note of before the start of 2015. While gold is still above this year's opening price (it did briefly fall below in November), silver has gotten hammered.
Fundamentally, I believe this is due to silver's industrial characteristics that make it much more exposed to slowing global growth, particularly in China. It's the same story for copper, which hit multi-year lows last week. Market participants have clearly preferred buying gold as they are more focused on central banks' accomodative policies, while these have not so far led to inflationary pressures that one would expect with quantitative easing programs.
There isn't anything to suggest that these fundamentals are going to change in 2015. Central banks in the Euro Zone, in Japan, in China and elsewhere are still going to have very expansionary policies. Even if the Fed does start raising rates next year (markets anticipating between June and September), they will still remain extremely low on a historical basis.
As for the global growth story, expectations are pretty low right now. Growth forecasts have been cut almost accross the board by all major international financial institutions (IMF, World Bank, central banks, etc.). Silver and industrial metals like Copper should therefore still be under pressure with headwinds coming especially from China's real estate market (falling housing prices). That being said, there is one silver lining that may allow for upside surprises next year : the fall in oil prices. Expectations for global growth are low since forecasts have been revised downward, but these forecasts might not have fully integrated the tailwind effect that a drop in oil prices may have for certain regions and sectors.
If market psychology starts changing at the beginning of 2015, and if precious metals start rallying like they did in January 2014, I believe that silver will give the best returns for investors. The silver/gold ratio suggests this as it is testing a 17-year support right now. Past bounces in this ratio corresponded to 20+ percent moves in silver prices. Please see my previous ideas on silver to see why this metal in particular might just be a great buy opportunity towards the end of the year.
