Fun is Over in Silver... For Now 7/24/2020Silver futures at the 4 hour view.
Silver got a huge boost due to the dollar strength being destroyed. That said, the SLV ETF climbed from the top 200s to the top 16 in most traded ETFs by Robinhood.
The typical Robinhooder is a new trader and/or a momentum chaser. When ever you see momentum chasers going for a commodity or a sector, that's how you know the fun is over and you missed most of the rise.
Will I think silver rise more? Yes, but not after a decent pullback first.
I'm willing to bet these new traders and Robinhooders didn't know that silver and gold get a pullback near the end/beginning of every month. I';ll be waiting for a decent pullback in the next two weeks.
When the new traders abandon ship from the pullback, that's when I'll enter silver again. For now, the fun is over in silver until we get a decent pullback.
Si1! (Silver Futures)
Silver finally ready to go boomThe silver/gold ratio was at all time low, or at least lowest in 350 years, maybe in entire history.
Here is what happened with Bitcoin:
Maybe the price will hesitate a bit in this area before spiking up
So easy making money chasing pumps and riding them short term while they rocket in a single direction
Silver assets are all going up
Here are a few stocks mooning:
www.forbes.com
Also remember gold is close to ath, a big part of it is the usd ponzi scheme falling. Gold against most currencies is way past ath.
USDOLLAR dying:
Sweden really going up as they did not fall for the covid scamdemic.
And Bernie was using Sweden as an example of successful socialism xd
The USA might go actual socialist with Sweden being an ultra capitalist country haha.
Ah those ethics and art studies people, they're just so stupid it's amazin'.
Interesting to take a quick look at other metals
Let's get an UBI, more black lives matter, more all lives matter except white skin & blue eyes, free money for every body hurray!
A basic income to be able to survive is a basic human right hahahaha! Yes more please! More more more so I can keep rubbing my hands.
XAGUSD: The 1W Golden Cross may be the opportunity of the decadeSilver (XAGUSD) recently formed a Golden Cross on the 1W chart (when the MA50 crosses above the MA200), having fully recovered from the coronavirus collapse. This is a very encouraging sign for long-term investors as a similar pattern was formed in the early 2000s right before Silver's big expansion. This means that we are either in front of the greatest buy opportunity of the decade on this asset or at least we are getting there.
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Major bull flag in PlatinumPlatinum is breaking out of a 5-6 week bull flag after tagging its 50 day moving average and reversing from major structure. Precious metals seem to be breaking out in general, but I particularly like the pattern in platinum. I am long all three (gold, silver and platinum).
Silver Attempting $18/oz Support After BreakoutAfter trending mostly below $18/oz for nearly two months silver has recently broken above that resistance level and is currently testing $18/oz as support. If price can manage to hold above $18/oz and see a continued push higher then $19 will be the next level to watch for resistance. Should price fall back within the $17-$18/oz range then $17 will be the main level to watch for potential price support based on recent history. Below $17/oz would indicate the potential for a dip back to $16/oz.
The Relative Strength Index(RSI) shows the green RSI line holding just above the 50 level. 50 represents the midway point in the total RSI range(0-100) and in general an RSI reading above 50 indicates bullish short-term price momentum while an RSI reading below 50 indicates bearish short-term price momentum. The purple line indicates intermediate-term price momentum, which is also above the 50 level. In general, during an uptrend in price you want to see the green RSI line rising above the purple signal line and for both lines to be above 50. If both lines continue to hold at 50 and move higher it would indicate that short-term and intermediate-term momentum is shifting bullish. If both lines cross below the 50 level it would indicate a potential shift to bearish price momentum.
The Price Percent Oscillator(PPO) shows the green PPO line overlapping its purple signal line which indicates a loss in price momentum since the green line crossed down into the purple line. In an uptrend in price you want to see the green PPO line rising above the purple signal line, and for both lines to be above the 0 level, or centerline, as an indication of bullish price momentum. Both lines trending down and below the 0 level would be an indication of bearish price momentum. For now the PPO is showing a drop in short-term momentum while remaining bullish overall since both the green and purple lines remain above the 0 level.
The Average Directional Movement Index(ADX) show the green directional line overlapping the purple directional line which indicates a pullback in the short-term uptrend in price. When the green line is above the purple line it indicates an overall bullish trend behind price, while a purple line above green indicates an overall bearish trend behind price. The histogram in the background indicates trend strength. When the histogram is rising the dominant trend is increasing in strength, when the histogram is declining it indicates that the dominant trend is decreasing in strength.
Overall silver looks good for more gains going forward this year, especially if gold continues to move higher. Silver has severely underperformed gold in the rally this year as gold is back to 2011 levels up in the $1,800/oz range. If silver had kept up and went back to its 2011 levels price would be above $34-$40/oz today. Silver seems cheap here, as do mining stocks, if price begins to catch up to gold in gains.
My currently held gold and silver mining stocks/ETF’s: GDX, GDXJ, AG, GPL, KGC, HL, NGD, MUX, EXK, CDE.
Silver structure might have changed. First down then up to 22.50The earlier idea could be completed as structure gets more complex with possible double three WXY to emerge.
The drop into blue box should occur then to make a wave X retracement.
Then the metal could hit 22.50 when another zigzag up in wave Y unfolds.
Silver Gearing Up for Next Leg Higher: Flag Target $19.70Been busy with life lately so my posts have been less often. Nevertheless, I do always keep an eye on the charts and when I spot something that requires a post I deliver. This morning I want to talk about the Silver. Remember when Silver outperformed Gold a few weeks ago? Well based on what I am seeing on the chart that may happen again in the coming week(s)! Let's take a look at the Silver chart.
Bull Flag
The everything rally continues on and next up in the rotation may be Silver (again). Since reaching its breakout peak on May 20th, Silver has been consolidating within on declining volume. The chart below is the 4-hour chart and it shows how price is consolidating above its 20 SMA. Check the strength of the CMF. Money is piling on into Silver.
Further illustrating the point made on the 4-hour chart is the daily chart above. Here notice how price is resting on a combination of 200 SMA and 10 EMA support. CMF also remains positive.
Above is perhaps the most exciting chart of all. If this bull flag is confirmed, the target price is approximately $19.70. Look how the flag target matches perfectly with the high Silver posted on September 4, 2019.
Silver is looking like a smart play heading toward the end of the week. Trade Silver with confidence. Bias: Bullish .
Risk-Off Would Equal a Big Bounce for Gold/Silver RatioWhile we have a $50 target for silver by the end of 2021, we fully expect it to get smacked in risk-off environments given its importance to industrial activity. When investors are optimistic, silver trades like copper; when they're scared, it trades more like gold. It's had a great run here and while we fully expect to see the ratio get back below 80 in time, gold should outperform silver in the very short term.
Silver Testing Trendline ResistanceSilver(Sl1!) closed at $17.90 on Tuesday for a $0.53(+3%) gain on the day. Price is currently testing the $18 level which is just below a diagonal trendline which stems from the August high near $20. Price has also created a series of yellow candles over the past 4 trading sessions which indicates that there is bullish momentum volatility behind price according to my candle color momentum algorithm. The yellow candles indicate that price may be due for a pullback which wouldn’t be a surprise considering how fast silver has moved from below $16 to its current level, especially with overhead resistance in the diagonal trendline.
The Relative Strength Index(RSI) shows the green RSI line at the 80 level and indicates that there is strong momentum behind price. While this is bullish for momentum, the 80 level is usually where momentum tends to peak out and price can be expected to weaken in the short-term. An RSI reading above 50 indicates overall bullish price momentum while a reading below 50 indicates bearish price momentum. The purple signal line is rising above the 50 level which indicates bullish momentum in the intermediate-term. Going forward we want to see the green RSI line remain above the 50 level as well as the purple signal line on any pullback as a signal that bullish momentum is holding.
The Price Percent Oscillator(PPO) shows the green PPO line and purple signal line rising above the 0 level with the green PPO line above the purple signal line which indicates bullish momentum behind price. When both lines are trending above the 0 level the overall momentum behind price is considered bullish, while both lines trending below the 0 level would indicate overall bearish momentum. As long as the green PPO line is trending above the purple signal line, and both lines are trending up from the 0 level the current bullish momentum behind price will be sustained.
The Average Directional Movement Index(ADX) show the green direction line trending above the purple direction line which indicates a positive trend in price. The histogram in the background is rising which indicates that the current price trend is increasing in strength. In general during an uptrend, you want to see the green line rising above the purple line and for the histogram bars to be rising as a sign that the trend is increasing in strength.
Volume still remains relatively low when compared to recent advances and declines in price seen in the past. In order for the current uptrend to hold we need to see volume increase in order to sustain the move higher. There is a slight increase in volume though which is a good sign during an advance in price, just need to see overall volume increase going forward.
The overall view on silver remains bullish, but a pullback in the short-term is expected here due to the upward price volatility seen over the past week and due to the fact that price is approaching a diagonal trendline. The current stop-loss level for long trades remains at $14.70 which is near the last base made in price, or area of demand. The stop-loss line is drawn just below a series of green doji candles which were indicative of trader indecision prior to the move higher this past week. After being indecisive traders ultimately pushed price higher from that level so going forward I expect that level to continue to be an area of price demand. Should price fall below the stop-loss level it could indicate that traders no longer see value in silver at that level and a deeper pullback would be possible. The levels to watch going forward are the $14.70 level for support, while a push above the diagonal resistance line would be bullish.
Silver Destined to Break Multi Year ResistanceWhat a time to be a trader...and what a day! U.S. markets gapped up and held their gains throughout todays session after Moderna, Inc. reported positive phase 1 results of a potential Covid-19 vaccine. Could it really be that simple for the bulls? It'll be interesting to see how the market reacts when the Fed Chair Jerome Powell speaks at a scheduled Senate hearing tomorrow. Perhaps the Dow rips another 1000 points or maybe, just maybe the long side is getting too crowded? More on this on upcoming posts. Today, I wanted to go over Silver .
It's Happening!
Yes, we told you so! More than a week ago we mentioned how Silver could potentially begin to out perform Gold in the coming weeks. Well, it has! Already out performing Gold by nearly 10% since last Thursday. Sure, Gold is up significantly over the last year but, the reason why I am so excited is because Silver could just be getting started. Want the proof? Let's take at some charts below.
Above is the daily chart of Silver. Currently Silver is getting rejected off a six month cluster of resistance. It wouldn't surprise me if price took a breather before heading higher. RSI is approaching overbought levels, so any price action higher would lead to bearish divergence potentially requiring resolution. Stacking bids at the support highlighted would serve as optimal entires.
Next, is the weekly chart of silver (see below). Notice how I have't updated resistance #1 . Yes, we broke above it, but we haven't had confirmation of support. This will likely end up being support but in trading you never take things as 100% certainty.
I also added a comment in between stating that the current range silver is trading within could be considered a no trade zone. What I am getting at is not to FOMO . Be smart on your approach. Let price consolidate and provide us with clear entries. With that said, if Silver does continue to rip higher, a daily close above the resistance #2 which coincides with a major descending trendline could be a breakout entry. Of course, practice good risk management by using stops.
The most bullish signal in more than a decade may be on the monthly chart below.
Above, you'll see the last two instances when Silver was either at or crossing the 20 SMA and experienced a bullish MACD cross within the positive territory. Yup, It's happening again! Will history repeat itself? I am betting that it will. Bias: Bullish .
More than Silver
Alternatives to buying Silver are ETFs and also silver miners. I'll be touching up these stocks in upcoming posts.
Have a great evening and happy trading!
Silver to retest former top of 21.13This is an updated map as we saw silver dropped into the abyss below the range.
Overall structure remained unchanged as it is still a flat correction although the right valley was established low than the left one.
The market is consolidationg within wave B of (Y) and it can dip between 14.23 and 13.24 into the blue box of Fibonacci retracement area.
After completion the upside move would resume to tag the former top of 21.13.
The wave C then should unfold at least 1.618x of wave A within (Y).
The silver was the game changer as previously I thought gold completed upside and should reverse.
Gold hates noise of printing pressMonetarists will pump trillions of dollars in the system. This time it will be even larger QE4.
The normalization phase of Fed reversed already in Sep 2019 with repo market collapse.
Gold should adjust its value.
We are in the middle of nowhere - market is above critical 1400 and below all time high of 1921.
This is a simple trend based map. Watch the mid-channel + former top if market could crack it or not between 1870 and 1921.
If yes then the upside is capped with the higher side of the channel at 2600.