XAGUSD Time to turn bearish.Silver (XAGUSD) almost reached the 25.000 Target that we set almost a month ago (February 15, see chart below) but as it seems to fail to touch the 0.786 Fibonacci level, it is time to take the profit earlier and turn bearish:
At least this is what took place on July 20 2023, a rejection that started wave (e-f) back inside the High Volatility Zone that touched the 1W MA100 (red trend-line). This line has basically made contact with all corrective waves since the long-term Triangle pattern started on May 05 2023.
As a result, taking also into account the 1D RSI which has almost hit the 70.00 overbought barrier like on July 19 2023, we are now bearish and targeting 22.500 (expected contact with the 1W MA100).
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Si1
XAGUSD Buy opportunity on a 1 month horizon.Silver (XAGUSD) is on the 2nd straight green 1D candle, the strongest two day rally since December 14 2023. The natural technical Resistance is the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) and if broken and the 1D candle closes above it, we will buy the break-out and target the 0.786 Fibonacci level at 25.000.
This is because based on the 1D RSI, the current Double Bottom rebound is similar to tthe late June - early July 2023 rebound. The RSI supported by a long-term Higher Lows broke above the top of a descending channel. That was an early signal 3 days before the 1D MA50 break-out which formed a peak on the 0.786 Fib on July 20 2023.
Note also how the 1W MA100 (red trend-line) has been an excellent buy level for short-term rebounds.
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XAGUSD: Neutral on 1D. Use this LH trendline to trade.Silver is on a neutral 1D technical outlook (RSI = 45.485, MACD = -0.282, ADX = 24.810) as despite a straight downtrend since December 22nd 2023, it has registered three successive green 1D candles that pushed the price over the LH trendline of the December 4th 2023 High and the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement level. Technically, if the price stays over the LH trendline, it is a buy as every time it breached the 0.382 Fibonacci level, it rebounded over the 0.5 Fibonacci again (our TP = 23.750), except for September 29th 2023. Consequently if it crosses back under the LH trendline again, we will short and target the long term HL trendline (TP = 21.200).
See how our prior idea has worked out:
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XAGUSD Head and Shoulders sell signal.Silver has formed the Right Shoulder of a Head and Shoulders pattern.
A Right Shoulder targeted on August 30th target the previous Low/ Support.
Trading Plan:
1. Sell on the current market price.
Targets:
1. 22.520 (Support 1).
Tips:
1. The RSI (1d) is about to cross under the MA trend line. This will be the sell signal's confirmation.
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Notes:
Past trading plan:
XAGUSD: Approaching a buy level.Silver has turned bearish on the 1D timeframe (RSI = 38.233, MACD = 0.035, ADX = 37.062) as it has been on a continuous decline since the December 4th top. The price is already under the 1D MA200 and the 1D MA50 and even touched the 0.382 Fibonacci level. The 0.236 - 0.382 Fibonacci range has been the most common Support since April but in order to rebound the price tends to require from the 1D RSI to enter the S1 Zone. We will go long when it does and target the 0.618 Fibonacci (TP = 24.000).
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XAGUSD peaked and expected to pull-back for the rest of DecemberSilver (XAGUSD) has hit a peak price amidst the geopolitical unrest this weekend (Red Sea attacks) and this is technically the Higher High of the medium-term Channel Up that started on the September 22 High. The 1D RSI is reversing already and as a target we have two technical candidates.
In the past 7 months we've had 5 major corrections, the minimum being -7.61% and the maximum -13.13%. As a result our target is the minimum projection of -7.61%, aiming for 24.000. However we may even see a technical extension as low as 23.450, which will not only be the bottom of the Channel Up, but also a 1D MA50 test (blue trend-line) but more importantly the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level, which is where the November 13th Low almost bottomed.
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XAGUSD: Channel Down confirmed sell signal.Silver has failed to close a 1D candle over the 1D MA50 for four straight sessions and as it previously did on the 1D MA200, this is a bearish signal. Its confirmation is the 1D MACD that formed a Bearish Cross and each time the market has done so since April, inside this long term Channel Down, a new Low was made.
Even the 1D technical outlook just turned bearish (RSI = 44.205, MACD = -0.090, ADX = 34.407) and today's late session rise gives us a better opportunity to enter a short and target the top of the S1 Zone (TP = 20.850).
See how our prior idea has worked:
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XAGUSD Giant Inverse Head & Shoulders makes it long-term bullishSilver (XAGUSD) is one of our favorite assets to analyze on the 1W time-frame, as a result of its high reliability of following long-term patterns. You can see a few examples of such successful trades we made using this time-frame below:
This time we have another major pattern forming on the 1W time-frame, an Inverse Head and Shoulders (IH&S), a formation typically found on market bottoms that initiates trend reversals. Interestingly enough, the last two weeks have been ranged within the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) and 1W MA200 (orange trend-line). This high volatility action can be an indication that a major move is approaching. Technically the IH&S patterns can target as high as the 2.0 Fibonacci extension. On such a large time-frame, this target is of course on the long-term.
On the shorter-term, we may be seeing the emergence of a Channel Up that aims inevitably at the 3 year Resistance Zone. We are technically at the start of the bullish leg towards that Zone, but a 1W MACD Bullish Cross can only confirm it. Once it does, Target 1 will be 28.750 (bottom of Resistance Zone) and when the Channel Up breaks, Target 2 will be 34.500 (just under the 2.0 Fibonacci extension).
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XAGUSD Critical Resistance test. Trade the break-outs.Silver (XAGUSD) gave a solid rejection at the top of the long-term Channel Down (see chart below) when we looked into it on July 21 2023:
This rejection gave way to the creation of the current Bearish Megaphone pattern whose low got priced on October 04. This initiated the current bullish leg which tested the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) and almost reached Resistance 1 (23.775). As long as this holds, the selling pressure will pile up to see if the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) will hold.
If it closes a 1D candle below it, we will sell and target 22.350 (top of Support 1 and above the 0.5 Fibonacci level). If on the other hand we close above Resistance 1 (23.775), we will buy and target the top (Lower Highs trend-line) of the Bearish Megaphone at 24.300.
Note that the 1D RSI is testing its own Lower Highs trend-line. As long as it remains below it, the selling pressure will keep piling up.
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XAGUSD Buy opportunity on the bottom of a Triangle.Silver hit the Rising Support of the bottom of the Triangle.
The sell off got more heavy after a Golden Cross on the (1d) time frame.
Even though based on the March 8th 2023 fractal there is one chance for a slightly lower bottom, those oversold levels are ideal for buying.
Trading Plan:
1. Buy on the current market price.
Targets:
1. 23.765 (Resistance 1 and 0.786 Fibonacci).
Tips:
1. The RSI (1d) made a Bullish Divergence on the March 8th bottom. It would be ideal to see one on the current bottom too.
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Notes:
Past trading plan:
XAGUSD Channel Up bottom buy opportunity.Silver / XAGUSD is trading near the bottom of 15 month Channel Up with the 1day MA50 and MA200 on a parallel move.
The 1day RSI is on a Channel Up / Bullish divergence since May 25th and it is much like the bottom trade at the start of the Channel Up.
Buy and target 25.900 (bottom of Resistance A).
Previous chart:
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XAGUSD Rebounding on the 1W MA50. Buy.Silver (XAGUSD) gave a solid rejection at the top of the long-term Channel Up (see chart below) when we last looked into it on July 21 2023:
The price hit on Thursday the 1W MA50 (red trend-line), which gave the previous short-term rally in mid-August. As long as it holds (closes weekly candles above it), we expect a similar rebound, thus turning bullish targeting the Lower Highs trend-line at 24.600. Only a closing above the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level can justify further buying into a rally. In that case the long-term target will be 26.935 (Resistance 2).
Notice the 1D RSI Rectangle formation, solid buy low/ sell high trades can be made within it.
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XAGUSD: Approaching the 1D Support. Buy opportunity.Silver is on a strong decline after the August 30th rejection on the LH trendline. The price is naturally on a bearish 1D time-frame technically (RSI = 39.492, MACD = -0.033, ADX = 26.676) but an RSI reading below 35.000 has been a buy opportunity since the end of May. Ideally the buy entry would be as close to S1 (22.235) as possible. We will buy and target the LH trendline again (TP = 24.500).
Prior idea:
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XAGUSD Massive success on last trade now looking for the next!Silver (XAGUSD) gave us a very successful sell trade on our last analysis (see chart below) on April 12:
The price rebounded right before hitting the 21.715 Pivot because it touched the 1W MA200 (orange trend-line). Even though May's rejection was done at the top (Lower Highs trend-line) of the Channel Down that started in August 2020, we may witness the break-out above this bearish structure finally as since the August 29 2022 bottom, a Bullish Megaphone and later a Channel Up are guiding the price action.
On top of that, Silver is completing the first 1W Golden Cross since May 2020. In any case we will not jump on this impulsively but rather wait for a clear bullish break-out signal, which will be if a 1W candle closes above the Lower Highs trend-line. In this case we will target Resistance 1 (26.230) and Resistance 2 (26.935) respectively. If the price gets rejected on the Lower Highs instead, we will wait for a buy on the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line).
Notice also the 1W MACD Bullish Cross that is about to be formed, indicating that a continuation of the current uptrend might be more probable than a rejection.
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Silver: Let the show begin…! 🎪Ladies and Gentlemen, step right up and let the show begin! Please welcome silver, our brilliant artistic performer, in the arena that is our chart… See next: a somersault into the orange zone between $24.45 and $25.05 to finish wave iv in orange, followed by a brave downwards leap to complete wave v in orange as well as wave (a) in blue. Watch with bated breath as silver then spirals upwards again, stopped only by the mark at $25.41, where it should rebound and glide further downwards. There is a 30% chance, though, that silver could gain too much upwards momentum and thus soar above the mark at $25.41. In that case, we would expect it to reach a new high in the form of wave alt.x in magenta first before turning downwards again.
XAGUSD: Waiting for the MACD to give a buy signalSilver is trading inside a Channel Up pattern following the March 10th Low and the neutral 4H technicals (RSI = 48.188, MACD = 0.000, ADX = 33.202) indicate a short term buy opportunity. However, and despite the fact that the price hit the bottom of the Channel and is rebounding, it remains under the 4H MA50 for the past 24 hours and it requires the MACD to make a Bullish Cross in order to confirm the buy signal.
The smaller rise it has down inside the Channel Up is +5.70% so if the MACD gives that signal we will buy and target that range (TP = 26.150). If the price crossed under the Channel, we will sell and target the S1 (TP = 23.650).
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XAGUSD First major sell signal in 3 months!We had a blast with our buy signal on Silver (XAGUSD) in late February as we caught the exact bottom on the oversold 1D RSI:
Now the tide is turning as the STOCH RSI on the 1W time-frame is vastly overbought and is waving the first sell signal after more than 3 months. This doesn't mean that the price can't extend slightly its rise, but this is an optimal level to start adding sells based on our long-term strategy.
Right now the price is just above the 0.618 Fibonacci level, having broken above the dashed Lower Highs but is near the dotted Lower Highs. A max extension near the March 07 2022 High and the 0.786 Fib isn't likely but isn't unrealistic at the same time. As mentioned though, that is good enough for us to sell and as of today we switch back to being bearish on Silver, targeting initially the 2 year Pivot at 21.750.
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XAGUSD Approaching the 3 month ResistanceSilver is at a critical point as it is approaching Resistance (1) at 24.600 that is holding for the past 3 months.
The MA50 (1d) is flattened and is inside the Pivot Zone.
Trading Plan:
1. Sell as long as the price is closing under Resistance (1).
2. Buy if the price closes (as 1d candle) over Resistance (1).
Targets:
1. 22.250 (Pivot Zone).
2. 26.000 (under Resistance 2).
Tips:
1. RSI (1d) crossed over the 70.00 overbought level. Every such crossing always made a pull back to the Pivot Zone.
2. Long term the price is supported on a Rising Support. Unless this breaks, the long term trend is bullish.
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XAGUSD Sell as it approaches the 2021 Falling Resistance.XAGUSD/ Silver is on a 2 week rise after rebounding on the Rising Support.
The price is now approaching the Falling Resistance that started on February 1st 2021.
We expect a correction back to the Rising Support and bottom of the Pivot Zone.
Target 21.000.
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Head and Shoulders on Silver bearish price to target $16.30Head and Shoulders officially formed on Daily.
The previous analysis, we were waiting for the pattern to form a Right Shoulder.
Now with the price breaking below the RS, almost confirms the trade entry.
21>7
Price <200 - Bearish (Red back)
RSI<30 - Bearish
Target $16.30
XAGUSD Our great masterplan continues to work to perfection.Since early last year, we have been following a certain buy low/ sell high approach on Silver (XAGUSD) after we identified that it has been trading inside a 2-year Channel Down:
We most recently turned bearish again on precisely the right time on our previous January 31 sell call:
Right now however, with the price having broken on Friday below the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) for the first time since November 30, it hit the 20.625 Support formed by the November 21 Low. This is potentially the formation of the Right Shoulder of a giant Head and Shoulders (H&S) pattern. With the 1D RSI deep below the oversold barrier, this is were we will attempt our first medium term buy targeting the (green) Symmetrical Resistance Zone and the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line), any of the two gets hit first.
We will attempt an additional buy entry near the Higher Lows trend-line (holding since the September 01 Low), as this would complete a -19.50% decline, similar to the June 06 - July 14 pattern. Its target was a +15.10% rise to the 0.618 Fibonacci, but again we will settle for just the (green) Symmetrical Resistance Zone and the 1D MA50 as targets.
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