SILVER - Potential Upward MovementSILVER already hit demand zone and will likely go on a reversal. Exit at 3rd demand zone.
Si1
XAGUSD: Bearish. Has more space to drop before a rebound.Silver is completely bearish on the 1D time-frame (RSI = 30.745, MACD = -0.501, ADX = 35.018) with the RSI almost oversold. The long term pattern since early 2021 is a Channel Down and the last time inside this pattern the 1D RSI hit 30.000 was on September 1st 2022, which was a market bottom and Lower Low on the Channe Down.
In order to help us get a better understanding if this is a buy zone, we have identified all other times the the 1D RSI broke below 30.000. Those circles as shown on the chart, most of the times have made the price rebound instantly and hit the 1D MA50 but on two occassions, the price dipped significantly more before it rebounded. One was on April 27th 2022, which was a sequence similar to what we experience today as the price was also coming off a Lower High on this multi year Channel Down.
The blue zone that supported the initial peak fall on the 1D MA200 during the June 18th 2021 oversold RSI, didn't do so in April 2022 and XAGUSD fell significantly more to almost reach the 0.786 Fibonacci level, before making the bounce to almost hit the 1D MA50. The 0.618-0.786 Fibonacci Zone (green zone) held in 2021 as well.
Our long term strategy on Silver is based exactly on this. We will buy on the 4H MA200 and will target the 1D MA50 (TP = 22.500) but if the price crosses under the blue zone, we will take the loss and short to the middle of the green zone, where we'll take a short term buy again to the 1D MA50. The risk is low due to the SL placement while the reward is high.
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SILVER - Potential Upward MovementSILVER EMA about to cross HA Trend Follow upwards. Exit at upper BB
XAGUSD Hanging on a tight thread about to turn bearish.Silver (XAGUSD) couldn't have gone better since our September 12 buy signal as following the Lower Lows Double Bottom, it not only broke above the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) and 1D MA200 ( orange trend-line), but also made a new Extreme High on the 1.382 Fibonacci extension .
As you see, we've charted Silver's pattern since February 01 2021, which is a Channel Down, most effectively viewed using the Fibonacci channel levels. This is basically the pattern we used to analyze the metal 3 months ago, and it helped us call accurately that bullish break-out.
At the moment, with a slight modification to better adapt to the new Highs and Lows, we see that Silver is has been pushing downwards on the 1.382 Fib treating it as strong of a Resistance so far as the March 08 High during the Ukraine - Russia war. Now of course the fundamentals are not the same but technically since the price broke below the 1D MA50, the confirmation of the downtrend will come if it breaks inside the Ichimoku Cloud, which is exactly where today's low hit. That was the Bearish Signal on the April 19 2022 Ichimoku breach.
If that happens, we can see a nose-dive even as low as the 0.382 Channel Fib. Notice also how the RSI on the 1W time-frame is being rejected on the Resistance Zone which since February 2021 was rejected and formed all major Lower Highs of this Channel Down.
In order for us to call for a bullish extension and invalidation of this long-term bearish trend, we ideally want to see XAGUSD closing above the 0.786 horizontal Fib, which failed to get tested during the March was High. In that case we will target initially the 26.900 March High on the short-term.
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Silver Trading The Complex CorrectionIn this update we review the recent price action in the Silver futures contract and identify the next high probability trading opportunity and price objectives to target
SI1! ( Silver Futures ), H4 Potential for Bullish ContinuationTitle: Silver Futures (SI1!), H4 Potential for Bullish Continuation
Type: Bullish Continuation
Resistance: 24.775
Pivot: 706.50
Support: 23.140
Preferred case: Looking at the H4 chart, my overall bias for SI1! is bullish due to the current price crossing above the Ichimoku cloud, indicating a bullish market. If this bullish momentum continues, expect price to possibly head towards the resistance at 24.775, where the recent high is.
Alternative scenario: Price may head back down towards the support at 23.140 where the 38.2% Fibonacci line is located.
Fundamentals: There are no major news.
XAGUSD Hit the extreme top of the 2 year Channel Down.Silver (XAGUSD) couldn't have gone better since our September 12 buy signal as following the Lower Lows Double Bottom, it not only broke above the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) and 1D MA200 (orange trend-line), but also made a new Extreme High on the 1.382 Fibonacci extension.
As you see, we've charted Silver's pattern since February 01 2021, which is a Channel Down, most effectively viewed using the Fibonacci channel levels. This is basically the pattern we used to analyze the metal 3 months ago, and it helped us call accurately that bullish break-out.
So what now? With a slight modification to better adapt to the new Highs and Lows, we see that the rejection 3 days ago is so far as strong as the March 08 High during the Ukraine - Russia war. Now of course the fundamentals are not the same but technically as long as the price is below the 1.382 Channel Fib, we should see a 1D MA50/ MA200 test, at least on the short-term. If after that the price fails to regain the 1D MA50, we can even see a nose-dive back to the 0.382 Channel Fib.
Notice also how the RSI on the 1W time-frame just entered the Resistance Zone which since February 2021 was rejected and formed all major Lower Highs of this Channel Down.
In order for us to call for a bullish extension and invalidation of this long-term bearish trend, we ideally want to see XAGUSD not just closing above the 1.382 Channel Fib but above the 0.786 horizontal Fib, which failed to get tested during the March was High. In that case we will target initially the 26.900 March High on the short-term.
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XAGUSD Huge sell opportunitySilver (XAGUSD) has been trading since September exactly like we wanted it to, as we have been tracking its long-term Channel Down pattern correctly:
Our 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) target has been hit, with the price also marginally breaking above the top (Lower Highs trend-line) of the Channel Down (Fibonacci level 1.0). That doesn't call for a bullish extension towards the 1.382 Fib like the Ukraine - Russia was extreme did, as the price quickly retraced back below the 1D MA200.
This continues to replicate the rebound after the Internal Lower Lows, which is the fractal that helped us take that buy trade on September. That sequence, following the 1D MA200 rejection, pulled-back to the 0.236 Fibonacci level. Since the current top on the September - November bullish leg was made a Fib level higher, we are setting the targeted low higher as well, on the 0.382 Fib instead of the 0.236.
The next buy opportunity would be when the 1D RSI hits the 30.000 oversold barrier again.
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SILVER: Can collapse if this level is not recoveredThis is a long term outlook on Silver/ XAGUSD and its weekly chart. There is a pending Death Cross on the 1W time frame (blue MA50 to cross below the orange MA200). The 1W RSI pattern points towards the 1979 - 1989 Cycle where its 2nd Death Cross started a new multi year collapse that made a new market low.
This can be avoided only if the metal breaks above its invalidation level that is on its last Lower High (around 27.000). See on your own that the 1W Death Crosses in the past have been invalidated only above the last Lower High. Those that didn't kept Silver in Bear Markets. Until that happens, selling the rallies is our strategy.
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Silver showing upside to $24.02 due to Triple BottomSilver has formed a Triple Bottom and is above the 200MA.
These are all bullish signals for a trend reversal and is likely to shoot up.
First target is around $24.02
Sliver Futures (SI! ), H4 Potential for Bearish MomentumType: Bearish Momentum
Resistance: 19.965
Pivot: 18.830
Support: 17.495
Preferred Case: The H4 price is below ichimoku cloud, The price may drop form the pivot at 18.830, where the overlap resistance is to the 1st support at 17.495 where the swing low sits
Alternative scenario: If there is a price reversal, price will move to 19.965, where the overlap resistance and 61.8% fibonacci retracement are.
Fundamentals: There are no major news
Silver To Lose Its Shine...AgainIn this update we review the recent price action in the Silver futures contract and identify the next high probability trading opportunity and price objectives tot arget
Silver Order Flow - Screams Sell-Side ActionRoll up your sleeves and get to work on your order flow reading skills!
This market is providing opportunities based on the right interpretation of the order flow script like few times I’ve seen…
Don’t trust me? Watch the video and judge by yourself.
In my last video it was gold, so this time is the turn of the younger brother silver.
This one has got a double whammy of events against buyers…
Not only the 8h has triggered a short, but that comes on the back of a short entry off the hourly…
All happening in the context of a clear and strong bearish trend in the daily as the USD torpedoes ahead.
Remember the two key main features of the OFA indicator:
Magnitude: A major clue that will help determine the health of a trend is the type of progress by the dominant side in control of the trend. We need to ask the following question: Are the new legs in the active buy-sell side campaign as identified by the script increasing or decreasing in magnitude?
Velocity: When it comes to the distance the price moves, the magnitude is only ½ the equation. The other ½ has to do with the velocity of the move or the speed. Was the new leg created after a fast and impulsive move? Or did price make a new low or high with the movement being sluggish, compressive and taking too long to form? A good rule of thumb is to count the number of candles it took to achieve a new leg.
Every rally starts with a short coverPlatinum has been trending lower for more than four months, the March peak, and is finally showing signs of a potential bottom. Yesterday's whipsaw helped complete the right shoulder of an inverse head and shoulders pattern. Upon doing that, it also back-tested the trend line from its June peak, holding it as support perfectly. The large range consolidation over the last three days created a flag-like pattern, brining a coiling of strength to help pierce through the 21-day moving average this morning. The cherry on top is that Managed Money, hedge funds, have been net-short Platinum. This tells us that upon strength there will be short-covering. Not only in Platinum but SIlver and Gold too. In fact, Managed Money went net-short Gold as of last Tuesday for only the second instance in history. The first was at the exact 2015 low and the second was in the later innings of the 2018 sell-off. Managed Money going net-short metals is a contra indicator.
Silver Losing Its ShineIn this update we review the recent price action in the Silver futures contract and update the bearish trading strategy and price objectives to target
XAGUSD Maybe temporary bounce unless the 1D MA50 breaks.Silver (XAGUSD) has been on a short-term rise since the May 13 Low. The long-term pattern is a Channel Down since May 18 2021, so practically a whole year of Lower Highs and Lower Lows. The recent one, isn't a solid Lower Low however, in fact it resembles the August 09 2021 Low, which despite a short-term rise, it failed exactly on the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) and got rejected to a Lower Low.
It was only when the price later broke above the 1D MA50 that the uptrend was sustained and eventually made a new Lower High. As a result, with the 1D Death Cross imminent (when the 1D MA50 crosses below the 1D MA200), it is best to buy either on the exact bottom (Lower Lows) trend-line of the Channel Down or if the 1D MA50 breaks first. Notice how in the rise to the Lower High, the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) also rejected the uptrend twice. Keep those in mind if you engage into long-term trading within this pattern. It is also important to have the 1W RSI Resistance and Support Zones in the equation.
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Silver Futures ( SI1!), H4 Potential for Bullish BounceType : Bullish Bounce
Resistance: 23.870
Pivot: 23.280
Support : 22.875
Preferred case: Price is near to the key pivot level. We are expecting the price to potentially bounce off from our pivot level of 23.280 in line with 138.2% Fibonacci extension towards our 1st resistance level of 23.870 which is in line with 23.6% Fibonacci retracement.
Alternative scenario: Otherwise, the price might break our pivot structure and trigger a dip to the 1st support level of 22.875 in line with 161.8% Fibonacci extension, 100% Fibonacci projection and -27.2% Fibonacci expansion.
Fundamentals: No major news.
Silver Futures (SI1! ), H1 Potential for Bearish DipType: Bearish Dip
Resistance: 26.415
Pivot: 26.160
Support: 25.835
Preferred case: We see the potential for a bearish dip from our pivot at 26.160 in line with 38.2% Fibonacci retracement and 61.8% Fibonacci projection towards our 1st support at 25.835 in line with 61.8% Fibonacci retracement and 100% Fibonacci projection.
Alternative scenario: Alternatively, price might break our pivot structure and head for 1st resistance at 26.415 in line with 78.6% Fibonacci retracement and 100% Fibonacci projection.
Fundamentals: No major news.
Silver: Tenacious B 🐻The rock band “Tenacious D” consisting of Jack Black and Kyle Gass must soon face competition, namely from “Tenacious B”. The bears on the silver market have rightfully earned this name by perseveringly dragging silver further down despite recurrent countermovement. The expression “to bear up” doesn’t exist for nothing, after all! We expect the bears to keep going and to lead silver below the support at $21.98 and into the lower orange zone between $21.39 and $20.27, where wave iii in orange should end. The following countermovement in wave iv in orange into the upper orange zone between $22.90 and $23.52 should serve as a booster for the greater downwards movement, which should then continue below $21.98.
GOLD🥇 triangle breakoutXAUUSD seems to be ready to break up this triangle 📐 and if successful I think there is chance for run to 2210 and even higher. Setting BUY STOP-LIMIT order to catch the breakout. GOLD come on!
ENTRY : local high @ 1877
STOPLOSS (SL) : local low @ 1753
TARGET (TP) : height of the triangle projected from midpoint of the local range (BUY STOP-LIMIT - SL) @ 2210
REWARD RISK RATIO (RRR) : 2.7
INVALIDATION : when SL level hit
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XAGUSD Pull-back are a buy to $29.00 - 30.00What was set in motion last October when the price rebounded on the 1W MA100, is taking place now, as Silver (XAGUSD) broke above its 1W MA50.
On the shorter time-frame of 1D (current chart), the price appears to be replicating the December 2020 aggressive rise, which initially reached almost the 0.786 Fibonacci retracement level (28.000) and after a 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) pull-back, tested the 30.000 Resistance.
This time, the rally broke above the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) for the first time since July 16 2021. Our long-term strategy is to buy every pull-back up to the 1D MA50 and look to book profits within the 29.000 - 30.000 Zone.
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Silver lags for now, wait for it...dg78 asked me about Silver... so a quick look here.
The Silver Weekly chart is lagging Gold, but does appear to consolidating since mid 2021. Trendlines are tilting downwards as price appear to be testing harder each time. Last week closed above the 55EMA on a nice looking bullish candle that gapped up and pushed to close above the 55EMA. MACD in this instance is also about to cross into the bullish zone.
Lagging Gold, but can turn up fast, like previously.
The Monthly chart shows a pennent/flag pattern with the long term target of about 41.20 in mid-2023. Noted that the retracement since the Aug 2020 top did not reach the 55EMA as a support, which can be viewed as a bullish bias indication.
Not yet ripe, but when it runs, it should run fast with much potential, IMHO...
Silver: Into the Green 🌱 🌿Silver needs to relax a bit and as its last foray into the green was too short to enjoy, it has treated itself with another trip. We expect silver to extend the stay until the upper edge of the green zone between $23.69 and $24.43, where it should finish wave 2 in green. Then, it should turn around and leave the green zone to go down below the support at $21.94 and afterwards even further below $21.41.
Still, there is a 38% chance that silver could surmount the green zone and rise above the resistance at $24.75. If it makes it even above $25.49 afterwards, it should continue the ascent.
