Gold Update: Wave 5 up could be extended to hit 1921-1965The wave (4) has been completed as per the plan (see related).
The wave (5) could be extended and of the same size as wave (3) and it can hit the all-time high and even higher level of 1965.
Si1
SI1! in case ↘↘Depending on a lot of sign Sl1! going to be With a huge endurance decreased and it's the perfect time to sell
Arbritrage OpportunityHuge Arb opportunity in Silver where Spot Silver is trading 0.35 pips discount to future.... This difference would converge to 0.15 pips minimum within this month
Silver Gearing Up for Next Leg Higher: Flag Target $19.70Been busy with life lately so my posts have been less often. Nevertheless, I do always keep an eye on the charts and when I spot something that requires a post I deliver. This morning I want to talk about the Silver. Remember when Silver outperformed Gold a few weeks ago? Well based on what I am seeing on the chart that may happen again in the coming week(s)! Let's take a look at the Silver chart.
Bull Flag
The everything rally continues on and next up in the rotation may be Silver (again). Since reaching its breakout peak on May 20th, Silver has been consolidating within on declining volume. The chart below is the 4-hour chart and it shows how price is consolidating above its 20 SMA. Check the strength of the CMF. Money is piling on into Silver.
Further illustrating the point made on the 4-hour chart is the daily chart above. Here notice how price is resting on a combination of 200 SMA and 10 EMA support. CMF also remains positive.
Above is perhaps the most exciting chart of all. If this bull flag is confirmed, the target price is approximately $19.70. Look how the flag target matches perfectly with the high Silver posted on September 4, 2019.
Silver is looking like a smart play heading toward the end of the week. Trade Silver with confidence. Bias: Bullish .
Risk-Off Would Equal a Big Bounce for Gold/Silver RatioWhile we have a $50 target for silver by the end of 2021, we fully expect it to get smacked in risk-off environments given its importance to industrial activity. When investors are optimistic, silver trades like copper; when they're scared, it trades more like gold. It's had a great run here and while we fully expect to see the ratio get back below 80 in time, gold should outperform silver in the very short term.
Silver Testing Trendline ResistanceSilver(Sl1!) closed at $17.90 on Tuesday for a $0.53(+3%) gain on the day. Price is currently testing the $18 level which is just below a diagonal trendline which stems from the August high near $20. Price has also created a series of yellow candles over the past 4 trading sessions which indicates that there is bullish momentum volatility behind price according to my candle color momentum algorithm. The yellow candles indicate that price may be due for a pullback which wouldn’t be a surprise considering how fast silver has moved from below $16 to its current level, especially with overhead resistance in the diagonal trendline.
The Relative Strength Index(RSI) shows the green RSI line at the 80 level and indicates that there is strong momentum behind price. While this is bullish for momentum, the 80 level is usually where momentum tends to peak out and price can be expected to weaken in the short-term. An RSI reading above 50 indicates overall bullish price momentum while a reading below 50 indicates bearish price momentum. The purple signal line is rising above the 50 level which indicates bullish momentum in the intermediate-term. Going forward we want to see the green RSI line remain above the 50 level as well as the purple signal line on any pullback as a signal that bullish momentum is holding.
The Price Percent Oscillator(PPO) shows the green PPO line and purple signal line rising above the 0 level with the green PPO line above the purple signal line which indicates bullish momentum behind price. When both lines are trending above the 0 level the overall momentum behind price is considered bullish, while both lines trending below the 0 level would indicate overall bearish momentum. As long as the green PPO line is trending above the purple signal line, and both lines are trending up from the 0 level the current bullish momentum behind price will be sustained.
The Average Directional Movement Index(ADX) show the green direction line trending above the purple direction line which indicates a positive trend in price. The histogram in the background is rising which indicates that the current price trend is increasing in strength. In general during an uptrend, you want to see the green line rising above the purple line and for the histogram bars to be rising as a sign that the trend is increasing in strength.
Volume still remains relatively low when compared to recent advances and declines in price seen in the past. In order for the current uptrend to hold we need to see volume increase in order to sustain the move higher. There is a slight increase in volume though which is a good sign during an advance in price, just need to see overall volume increase going forward.
The overall view on silver remains bullish, but a pullback in the short-term is expected here due to the upward price volatility seen over the past week and due to the fact that price is approaching a diagonal trendline. The current stop-loss level for long trades remains at $14.70 which is near the last base made in price, or area of demand. The stop-loss line is drawn just below a series of green doji candles which were indicative of trader indecision prior to the move higher this past week. After being indecisive traders ultimately pushed price higher from that level so going forward I expect that level to continue to be an area of price demand. Should price fall below the stop-loss level it could indicate that traders no longer see value in silver at that level and a deeper pullback would be possible. The levels to watch going forward are the $14.70 level for support, while a push above the diagonal resistance line would be bullish.
Silver Destined to Break Multi Year ResistanceWhat a time to be a trader...and what a day! U.S. markets gapped up and held their gains throughout todays session after Moderna, Inc. reported positive phase 1 results of a potential Covid-19 vaccine. Could it really be that simple for the bulls? It'll be interesting to see how the market reacts when the Fed Chair Jerome Powell speaks at a scheduled Senate hearing tomorrow. Perhaps the Dow rips another 1000 points or maybe, just maybe the long side is getting too crowded? More on this on upcoming posts. Today, I wanted to go over Silver .
It's Happening!
Yes, we told you so! More than a week ago we mentioned how Silver could potentially begin to out perform Gold in the coming weeks. Well, it has! Already out performing Gold by nearly 10% since last Thursday. Sure, Gold is up significantly over the last year but, the reason why I am so excited is because Silver could just be getting started. Want the proof? Let's take at some charts below.
Above is the daily chart of Silver. Currently Silver is getting rejected off a six month cluster of resistance. It wouldn't surprise me if price took a breather before heading higher. RSI is approaching overbought levels, so any price action higher would lead to bearish divergence potentially requiring resolution. Stacking bids at the support highlighted would serve as optimal entires.
Next, is the weekly chart of silver (see below). Notice how I have't updated resistance #1 . Yes, we broke above it, but we haven't had confirmation of support. This will likely end up being support but in trading you never take things as 100% certainty.
I also added a comment in between stating that the current range silver is trading within could be considered a no trade zone. What I am getting at is not to FOMO . Be smart on your approach. Let price consolidate and provide us with clear entries. With that said, if Silver does continue to rip higher, a daily close above the resistance #2 which coincides with a major descending trendline could be a breakout entry. Of course, practice good risk management by using stops.
The most bullish signal in more than a decade may be on the monthly chart below.
Above, you'll see the last two instances when Silver was either at or crossing the 20 SMA and experienced a bullish MACD cross within the positive territory. Yup, It's happening again! Will history repeat itself? I am betting that it will. Bias: Bullish .
More than Silver
Alternatives to buying Silver are ETFs and also silver miners. I'll be touching up these stocks in upcoming posts.
Have a great evening and happy trading!
SILVER: potential bearish ABCD pattern. Retrace almost DONE!SILVER: potential bearish ABCD pattern. Retrace almost DONE!
Define stops according to your risk profile.
Silver to retest former top of 21.13This is an updated map as we saw silver dropped into the abyss below the range.
Overall structure remained unchanged as it is still a flat correction although the right valley was established low than the left one.
The market is consolidationg within wave B of (Y) and it can dip between 14.23 and 13.24 into the blue box of Fibonacci retracement area.
After completion the upside move would resume to tag the former top of 21.13.
The wave C then should unfold at least 1.618x of wave A within (Y).
The silver was the game changer as previously I thought gold completed upside and should reverse.
Silver Futures shortIf the price enter inside the channel and breaks the Blue TrendLine ..so silver for short..TP1 is 15.1 and TP2 is 14.95
Gold hates noise of printing pressMonetarists will pump trillions of dollars in the system. This time it will be even larger QE4.
The normalization phase of Fed reversed already in Sep 2019 with repo market collapse.
Gold should adjust its value.
We are in the middle of nowhere - market is above critical 1400 and below all time high of 1921.
This is a simple trend based map. Watch the mid-channel + former top if market could crack it or not between 1870 and 1921.
If yes then the upside is capped with the higher side of the channel at 2600.
XAGUSD: Sell opportunity and multi-year trading plan.Silver is on a 4 week rebound following the 11.650 bottom made last month. On the 1W chart, this move has recovered 50% of the losses (trading just above the 0.5 Fibonacci) sustained since the decline from the 18.950 Top late in February. This is the reason that the 1W technical indicators are back to being neutral (RSI = 45.325, MACD = -0.562, ADX = 21.014, STOCHRSI = 50.488).
On a bigger scale we can see that since 2014, Silver (XAGUSD) has been trading within a Channel Down, making sharp Lowers Highs and Lower Lows. The current sequence is similar to the one is 2014. After a Lower High and a secondary Top, the price collapsed to a Lower Low. The rebound that followed (where we are at now) stopped on the 1W MA50 (blue trend line) which happened to also be near the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level.
This makes us believe that the top is around the 0.618 Fibonacci and that a new decline may follow for a new Lower Low. We are setting a more reasonable Target Zone though at 11.650 - 12.500.
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Gold Vs SilverOnly in the early 90's did the Gold/Silver ratio reach 100 ounces. Now it's way beyond!
Silver (SI1!) long. Will it explode?All description on the chart.
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XAGUSD: Consolidation on the Lower Low. Buy opportunity.Silver has completed last week the bearish leg of the 1D Channel Down that started in September (RSI = 34.367, MACD = -0.179, ADX = 27.061, Highs/Lows = -0.7962) and made a Lower Low at 16.200. The RSI action shows that the price may consolidate a while before rising towards the Lower High zone, but remains an optimal buy opportunity nonetheless. Our Target Zone is 17.500 - 17.850.
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Portier | Silver Futures/XAGUSD Macro Outlook & AnalysisTraders & Investors!
Yet another opportunity to leverage the Coronavirus theme out of China. We anticipate flow on effects of lacklustre industrial demand for the precious metal through to Silver importation through EM Asia/China resulting in a sell off. Technicals are lining up for favourable entries across the board.
We have added sellside exposure across both our macro and directional portfolios
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XAGUSD: Close to a bottom. Aggressive Bull in 2020.Silver has been trading inside a Falling Wedge since the early September Top (1D RSI = 37.923, MACD = -0.187, Highs/Lows = -0.1939) and is currently on the Lower Low. 1W is turning neutral as the Wedge is close to exhausting its limit. The 1D MA200 is approaching to provide Support.
Based on the 1D RSI and MACD patterns, there are a lot of similarities between the September - December sequence and January - March fractal. On the RSI side both display a Channel Down, while the MACD is consolidating on its lows.
According to that we've reached the conclusion that XAGUSD is at or close to its new long term bottom (the Jan-March fractal made the bottom on the symmetrical support provided by the last Higher Low). Expect an aggressive bullish break out by January 2020.
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Silver - Potential Buy-in Opportunity and a Look at PriceSilver is one of those classic investments that people tend to buy as price moves rapidly in a positive direction. By the time you hear about Silver's performance, the smart money is already unloading their holdings.
I like silver. In fact, it's one of my top long term holdings. I think with the positive traction gold has had over the past 20 years proves the case for precious metals, and displays the shaky ground holding up fiat currency. Silver is merely a leveraged play of gold, and it's cheap price makes it easier to buy and sell small quantities of physical holdings.
I will post a monthly chart of silver as well to show where I think price is going over the next 10-20 years. But, for today we will focus on he weekly chart and where things are headed over the next year or so.
This recent run up to $19.80 is nothing more than a short squeeze and FOMO rally. Just like I said, people only buy silver when the price is already up. There is no interest in the space otherwise, and the people who have been buying the last 3 months are already regretting it, or are in denial.
We won't see $19-20 silver for at least another year or two.
I do think silver poses a great long term buy. If you are going to hold for more than 20 years, you can't go wrong. However, if you think price will double over the next year, you got another thing coming.
I'm expecting a retest of $15.50-16 over the next 6 months, with a few relief rallies along the way. We can still play the swings over this time and make money.
Over the next 1 to 2 years, I thinks there's a good 60% chance (roughly) to retest $14.
I've drawn out the two scenarios I think are the most likely to play out. The one that plays out all depends on how price behaves over the next 6 months, and how soon we get a strong relief rally.
If the rally happens too soon, I think we move back down to $14 and don't see $18-19 until late 2021.
If we have a healthy correction down to $15-16 and have a later rally, I think we could see $18-19 sooner.
The main thing to keep in mind is that overhead resistance keeping us in this long term wedge. The market will respect this pattern, until of course it doesn't.
Keep your eye on the swings of this market, and you might make some coin (pun intended).
Thanks for stopping by!
