Elliott Wave Intraday Analysis on Silver (XAGUSD) Looking to BuyShort Term Elliott Wave View in Silver (XAGUSD) suggests that pullback to 28.58 low ended a wave (A). The metal turned higher again in wave (B) ended at 31.75 high. The market resuming lower from wave (B) high breaking below 28.58 low to rule a larger correction. It means, Silver is developing a wave (C) of ((4)) as a zig zag Elliott Wave structure. Down from wave (B), wave ((i)) ended at 28.65 and wave ((ii)) ended at 29.45. Wave ((iii)) lower ended at 27.40, and pullback in wave ((iv)) ended at 28.19. Wave ((v)) ended at 27.29 which completed wave 1. Pullback in wave 2 ended at 29.22 high and the metal resumed lower in wave 3.
Down from wave 2, wave ((i)) ended at 27.93 and wave ((ii)) ended at 28.67. Wave ((iii)) lower ended at 26.49, and pullback in wave ((iv)) built a triangle structure ended at 27.16. Currently, silver is trading in wave ((v)) of 3. We are calling for one more low to end the cycle. The ideal place to end this wave comes in 26.32 – 26.06 area, where buyers should appear to start wave 4 pullback. Near term, as far as pivot at 29.22 high stays intact, expect pullback as wave 4 to fail in 3, 7 or 11 swing for further downside in wave 5 of (C).
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Silver (XAGUSD) Rallies in Elliott Wave DiagonalShort term Elliott Wave view in Silver (XAGUSD) suggests that the metal ended wave ((2)) at 22.09. Up from there, the metal rallies as a 5 waves diagonal Elliott Wave structure. Up from wave ((2)), wave (i) ended at 22.68 and dips in wave (ii) ended at 22.27. The metal extends higher in wave (iii) towards 23.04 and pullback in wave (iv) ended at 22.82. Final leg wave (v) ended at 23.09 which completed wave ((i)).
Pullback in wave ((ii)) ended at 22.26 with internal subdivision as a zigzag. The metal then extends higher again in wave ((iii)) towards 23.3. Pullback in wave ((iv)) completed at 22.50. Up from there, wave (i) ended at 23.14 and dips in wave (ii) ended at 22.73. Wave (iii) ended at 23.38, and pullback in wave (iv) ended at 23. Expect the metal to make 1 more push higher to end wave (v) and this should complete wave ((v)) of 1 in higher degree. Afterwards, it should pullback in wave 2 to correct cycle from 6.23.2023 low before the rally resumes again. Near term, as far as pivot at 22.09 low stays intact, expect pullback to find support in 3, 7, or 11 swing for further upside.
Silver (XAGUSD) Breaks Higher & Forms Elliott Wave Bullish SequeSilver (XAGUSD) broke above the previous peak on 2.2.2023 high ($24.62). As a result, it now shows a bullish sequence from 9.1.2022 low favoring further upside. A 100% – 161.8% Fibonacci extension from 9.1.2022 low targets 26.91 – 31.23. Near term, cycle from 3.10.2023 low is in progress as a 5-waves nesting impulse Elliott Wave structure. Up from 3.10.2023 low, wave 1 ended at 22.71 and pullback in wave 2 ended at 22.12. The metal has resumed higher in wave 3 which subdivides into another 5 waves in lesser degree.
Up from wave 2, the 1-hour chart below shows wave (i) ended at 23.52 and wave (ii) ended at 22.8. Wave (iii) ended at 24.15, wave (iv) ended at 23.54, and wave (v) ended at 24.19 which completed wave ((i)). Pullback in wave ((ii)) ended at 23.78. The metal extends higher in wave ((iii)) and expected to complete soon. Afterwards, it should pullback in wave ((iv)) in 3, 7, or 11 swing before it resumes higher. Near term, as far as pivot at 23.78 low stays intact, expect dips to find support in 3, 7, or 11 swing for further upside.
Elliott Wave View: Silver 5 Waves Down Suggests Further downsideShort term Elliott Wave View in Silver (XAGUSD) suggests cycle from 7.14.2022 low completed as a flat structure. Up from 7.14.2022 low, wave A ended at 20.86 and pullback in wave B ended at 18.07 as another flat correction. Up from there, Index rallied in another 5 waves in lesser degree. Wave ((i)) ended at 18.94 and wave ((ii)) ended at 18.26. Silver resumed higher in wave ((iii)) towards 22.06, dips in wave ((iv)) ended at 21.26, and final wave ((v)) ended at 22.25 which completed wave C of (4).
From here, XAGUSD dropped in wave (5) forming an impulse in lesser degree. Down from wave (4), wave ((i)) ended at 21.36 and wave ((ii)) ended at 22.05. Silver continue lower ended wave ((iii)) at 20.73, bounce in wave ((iv)) ended at 21.29. Last wave ((v)) finished at 20.56 to complete the impulse as wave 1. Wave 2 rally is in progress as a zigzag structure. Up from wave 1, wave ((a)) ended at 21.329. Expect wave ((b)) pullback then another leg higher in wave ((c)) to end wave 2. As far as the metal stays below 22.25, we expect the rally to fail and the metal to resume lower in wave 3.
TECHNICALS | Silver Breaking Down? After an improbable 13 down day streak, Silver is looking certain to break support. Originally GDX was leading the metals down, now the rest of the metals complex appear to be "catching down" as @mark_dow highlights. I have been short for some time as I prefer to sell highs when bearishly inclined, nevertheless, this could suggest a further extension... Which makes me wonder, perhaps this is related to Chinese flows and related fears about the credit quality of Anbang and HNA!?! Perhaps, I'm just reaching for causality here.