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BTCUSD Weekly Forecast Analysis 3-7 Oct 2022 BTCUSD Weekly Forecast Analysis 3-7 Oct 2022 We can see that currently the volatility is around 10.02% for this week, rising from the 9.61% from the last week. Currently there is around 31.7% that the asset is going to close either above or below the channel: TOP 20900 BOT 17230 The current volatility percentile is around 70th, and in this situations in general the AVG weekly bull candle = 5.4% AVG weekly bear candle = 7.67% With this mind, from the opening price it would situate us around TOP 20000 BOT 17500 At the same time, due to the nature of the opening price, making this weekly candle a bullish candle, there is currently a 64% that we will break the ath of previous weekly candle of 20380, and there is a 25% that we will touch 18500. However if the current price is going to go below the opening of 19060, the ratios are going to be reversed, the 18500 will become 65% and the 20500 will become 25-30%. From the technical analysis point of view: The majority of moving averages ranging from 10 to 200, are currently around 80% agreement that the market is in a short trend ( the current price is below those moving averages) At the same time if we are looking at the candle type since the beginning of the year, we can see that 62% of them were bearish, solidificating the bearish trend. News that can affect the price of this asset this week: - Thursday 6 October : Initial Jobless Claims and ECB Report - Friday 7 October: Nonfarm Payrolls
INDEX:BTCUSD
by exlux
Amazon key points May 5 2022We can estimate with a 85% confidence that the volatility for today is going to be below 4.23% For this the market will stay within TOP 2625 BOT 2412 At the same time We can estimate with a 81% confidence that the volatility for today is going move more than 0.6% For this the market will stay above the TOP 2533 BOT 2503 From the fundamental point of view, yesterday we had the release of the interest rates, so I believe currently we are in a short relief moment, where we can have for some days/weeks a small bull trend For today we have no big volatility news, so we cant expect big surprises.
NASDAQ:AMZN
by exlux
Short and Long Iron Condor QQQ 05 May 2022We can estimate with a 79% confidence that the volatility for today is going to be below 2.24% For this the market will stay within TOP 337 BOT 322 At the same time We can estimate with a 86% confidence that the volatility for today is going move more than 0.41% For this the market will stay above the TOP 331 BOT 328 From the fundamental point of view, yesterday we had the release of the interest rates, so I believe currently we are in a short relief moment, where we can have for some days/weeks a small bull trend For today we have no big volatility news, so we cant expect big surprises. Having said that we have 2 different ways of trading for today IRON CONDOR for the first option, with the 337sell 340buy Call / 322sell 319buy Put Reverse IRON CONDOR for the second option with 330buy 333sell Call/ 328buy 325sell Put
NASDAQ:QQQ
by exlux
Short and Long Iron Condor SPY 05 May 2022We can estimate with a 86.4% confidence that the volatility for today is going to be below 1.75% For this the market will stay within TOP 436.6 BOT 421.5 At the same time We can estimate with a 86% confidence that the volatility for today is going move more than 0.33% For this the market will stay above the TOP 430.4 BOT 427.6 From the fundamental point of view, yesterday we had the release of the interest rates, so I believe currently we are in a short relief moment, where we can have for some days/weeks a small bull trend For today we have no big volatility news, so we cant expect big surprises. Having said that we have 2 different ways of trading for today IRON CONDOR for the first option, with the 436sell 439buy Call / 421sell 418buy Put Reverse IRON CONDOR for the second option wiht 430buy 433sell Call/ 427buy 424sell PUT
AMEX:SPY
by exlux
Sidemarket SPX 2 May 2022With the daily close of 1 May, with 80% confidence, we can assume that SPX TOP is going to be around 4200 SPX BOTTOM is going to be around 4065 From Volume point, we can see that the POC is around 4150 area From volatility point, we are in the 75th Percentile of HV, with an aprox daily movement of 1.46%, while current VIX is around 33 / sqrt(252) an aprox 2% implied daily movement. So currently IV > HV, good moment to be a seller to benefit from overvalued option selling. From the fundamental POV, news that can affect it ISM Manufacturing PMI (Apr) , where the current forecast is bullish. From the intraday mode, we can see as well we are in the middle ground(sidemarket) I believe currently since is the beginning of the month, the overall sentiment that I have is sidemarket So an IC 4200/4050 can be a very safe bet with a very positive R:R
SP:SPX
by exlux
Ethereum 28 April 2022ETH USD 28April 2022 TOP Side = 2950 - 3000 according to Implied Volatility and ATR BOT Side = 2700 - 2750 according to Implied Volatility and ATR Expected movement at 28April 00h between 4.5 - 5.5% movement during the day In terms of fundamentals that can affect ETH At 14:30 european time(in 4h) we have the release of : US GDP US Jobless claims Both of the them are expected to lower than previous values -> Bearish Movements So final decision: Once ETH is going to get closer to 3000 we can go into a short trade with SL above 3050/3100 and aim for 2900-2800
COINBASE:ETHUSD
by exlux