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2025 S&P500 Forecast Guess by Tim WestI included 2024's guess that I posted here in January last year which turned out to be quite accurate in terms of "action" and "direction". The volatility the market saw with wild swings back and forth was outlined on here as we reached the clusters of guesses from Wall Street estimates. This is an old technique that I learned from Ken Fisher of Fisher Investments and from Forbes Magazine. His wise and witty insights were the foundation of my investment strategy when I started investing in the mid 1980's. Basically, when you see what the "market expectations" are for a market like the FOREXCOM:SPX500 or S&P500 Index, you can then figure out what needs to happen to get the market to their estimates and realize the market will go to somewhere else other than their guesses. With 2024 showing a majority of "less than historical average" forecasts and more downside forecasts, it was quite clear that the market could easily outpace or outperform those forecasts. Now that 2025 shows that analysts are looking for an average year or more, I think it is safe to say that we won't get an average year. We now have a rising US dollar, which hurts overseas earnings. We also have higher energy prices which also hurts earnings. And yet we have plenty of cash on the sidelines as everyone who missed the rally is hoping to buy on a decline and others are just happy to earn 5% on their cash balances thanks to an ultra-tight Fed (compared to the last 20 years). So, I expect more of the same that we have seen in January and I also expect sharp declines if we get any moves above the highs and up towards 6500 on the SPX.
EIGHTCAP:SPX500
by timwest
11
USDCAD: Buy the Breakout for 1.3560-80USDCAD is on a breakout from a large sideways formation.The absence of resistance from the left side of the chart and Daily and 4H technical picture are supporting the continuation of the move higher with the area of 1.3560-80 to be the initial target. Strategy: BUY at current levels and add at a pullback towards 1.3505-10 area. Stops below 1.3480 TP 1.3560 and 1.3580 MULTI TIME FRAME TECHNICAL PICTURE AND ANALYSIS Daily chart Reversal formation at important technical support with oversold RSI studies 4H Chart
Long
by Chartist-Trading
Dollar could be trapped within huge consolidationMarket corrections are tricky and in this post you can see why. Dollar index weekly chart shows signs of large sideways consolidation (aka flat correction, range) after a strong drop marked with the orange down arrow 1. This consolidation passed halfway as we can see all first moves are completed. The first major yellow counter-move is done; it will be connected with the last yellow upmove through two white and two red counter-moves. Why corrections are tricky? Because they last longer than many think, usually longer than the preceding move. Currently, first legs took the same time as the whole first orange leg down, therefore it will take almost same amount of time furthermore. After completion, the second orange leg down could resume to hit $93 (orange leg 1 = orange leg 2) or even lower to retest the valley of Y2021 at 89.6
TVC:DXY
by aibek
BTCUSDT. Bitcoin is still in the gameHello traders and investors! On the daily time frame, Bitcoin's price remains in a sideways movement near the lower boundary at 59,005. Despite three expansions below this boundary—on May 1 (56,552), July 5 (53,485), and August 5 (49,000)—only the May 1 expansion was significant, with the daily candle closing below the previous boundary of 59,005. The candles on July 7 and August 5 closed below 56,552 but failed to close below the wicks of the July 5 candle, which previously expanded the range. If the seller is aiming to push the price lower and has made two attempts on July 5 and August 6, we would expect to see a result with a solid close, not just a wick. If we continue to think in terms of a sideways movement (which I believe we should), the current relevant vector is the buyer's 10-11. On August 8, a buyer's zone was formed (blue rectangle). The absorbed volume of the seller’s August 5 candle is impressive—the largest volume in a year. Note that there are two levels formed by two tests: 62745 is the test of the seller's candle from August 2nd, which had increased volume, and 57642 is the test of the buyer's zone at the lower boundary of the range. Currently, the price is squeezed between these levels. Let's analyze the lower time frames for potential trading ideas. 8H Timeframe Analysis On the 8-hour time frame, a sideways range has also formed. The lower boundary is at 53,485, and the upper boundary is at 71,997. In the buyer's 5-6 vector, a buyer's zone has formed at the bottom (blue rectangle), and a seller's zone has formed at the top (red rectangle). Both zones have been tested. The buyer's zone was tested at 57,642, and the seller's zone at 60,711. Currently, the price is squeezed between these levels, with a potential target of 70,079 for the buyer's 5-6 vector. Let's study what’s happening in the buyer's vector on a lower time frame. 2H Timeframe Analysis The price has formed a sideways range, with the lower boundary at 49,000 (daily level too) and the upper boundary at 62,745 (daily level too). The level of 57,642 from the 8-hour time frame is the potential target for the seller’s 6-7 vector, while 60,711 is the potential target for the buyer’s 7-8 vector. Trading Ideas Medium-term Buys : Can be considered from the idea of the buyer's 5-6 vector on the 8-hour time frame or the buyer's 10-11 vector on the daily time frame. Short-term Buys : Can be considered from the idea of the buyer's 7-8 vector on the 2-hour time frame, defending levels at 57,642, 56,552, and 53,485. Short-term Sells : Can be considered from the idea of the seller's 6-7 or 8-9 vector on the 2-hour time frame, defending levels at 60,711 and 62,745. Good luck with your trading and investments!
by AlexeyWolf
TONUSDT. Looking for sales opportunityHi traders and investors! It might be time to open short positions on TON. Daily Timeframe Analysis On the daily timeframe, the price has formed a sideways movement. The buyer's vector 4-5 has reached all its targets. Yesterday, the seller brought the price back into the range, and the daily candle closed below the upper boundary of the range at 7.675. Additionally, a seller's zone has formed at the upper boundary of the range (red rectangle on the chart). The lower boundary of the range is at 4.5983. The current seller's vector 5-6 has a potential target of 5.18. The nearest obstacles are 6.58 and 5.9777. Hourly Timeframe Analysis On the hourly timeframe, there is a downtrend. The last selling impulse started from the level of 7.5862. This level also serves as the seller's defense of the breakout from the range on the hourly timeframe (marked as RPL on the chart). Currently, the price has interacted with the 50% level of the last selling impulse (7.2243) but has not been able to overcome it so far. Selling Strategy It is reasonable to look for selling opportunities based on the idea of realizing the seller's vector 5-6 in the range on the daily timeframe. Possible levels to look for sales if defended by the seller include 7.5862 (hourly timeframe) and 7.675 (daily timeframe). Alternatively, after a new selling impulse appears on the hourly timeframe, identify the seller's areas of interest and look for selling opportunities from the defense of these areas.
Short
by AlexeyWolf
XAUUSD. There is a context for searching for salesHello traders and investors! Daily Timeframe Analysis: The daily TF is sideways movement. Buyer vector 6-7 achieved all goals, going beyond the upper border of the sideways movement at point 5 ($2450.125). The seller returned the price to the sideways movement, forming a seller zone with a lower border of $2420.08 at the upper boundary of the sideways (red rectangle on the chart). Seller vector 7-8 is relevant with potential targets $2286.83, $2277.345. In the $2420 -$2450 zone, you can look for a pattern for selling an asset. Obstacles on the seller’s path – $2391.52 (minimum of the last buyer subvector in the sideways vector 6-7), $2349.485 (test of the buyer zone formed in vector 6-7) Hourly Timeframe Analysis: There is a short trend on the hourly timeframe. Beginning of the seller's last impulse at $2421.7. 4-hour Timeframe Analysis: On the 4-hour timeframe, the seller broke through the bottom of the buyer's last impulse at $2419.84. Thus, in the range of $2419 - $2422 there is a context for searching for sales on the daily, 4-hour and hourly timeframes.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by AlexeyWolf