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Sideways

Rule number 1 of trading/investing.As I am bored to near death, I just look at random stuff from time to time, and let me post about trading rule #1. You could call that a motivational post I suppose. PRESERVE CAPITAL. And do you know what trading rule number 2 is? Re-read rule number 1. Sure maybe the ranges can be traded but unless you are 100% sure and a strategy that worked over and over and over, don't bother. Even with a guaranteed strategy, I bet there is a risk of an explosive move at ANYTIME. So even if you just trade the range once twice then stay away to avoid taking that move against you it might actually explode before? Nothing is better than trading trending pairs (or stocks or crypto's). Maybe you can make quicker money on flash crashes buying dips, I still prefer going with trends, just nearly guarenteed wins if you don't join last :) (I have no idea who most of these people are) "Most investors focus on how much they're going to make rather than how much they could lose. Our focus is on the downside" Marc Lasry "Safety. Considering the downside is the single most important thing an investor must do. This task must be dealt with before any consideration can be made for gains" Irving Kahn “Don’t focus on making money, focus on protecting what you have” Paul Tudor Jones “An investor is more likely to do well by achieving consistently good returns with limited downside risk than by achieving volatile and sometimes spectacular gains but with considerable risk of principal. An investor who earns 16% annual returns over a decade, will perhaps surprisingly, end up with more money than an investor who earns 20% a year for nine years and then loses 15% the tenth year” Seth Klarman “An investor needs to do very few things right as long as he avoids big mistakes” Warren Buffett I want to quote Phil Town but on this all he does is quote Warren Buffet. "A very important data point for me is to try to avoid permanent loss of capital" Mohnish Pabrai "Look down, not up, when making your initial investment decision. If you don’t lose money, most of the remaining alternatives are good ones."Joel Greenblatt ^ Oh this is my trading system summed up XD "Watch out for the downside. Don't worry about the upside" Jim Tisch "We prioritize the avoidance of catastrophic loss first and foremost and focus on potential gains second" Zeke Ashton (See my post on the 2015 EURCHF mega drop that wiped up several brokers and legions of "hedge" funds) “Capital preservation is always far more important than capital enhancement” Seth Klarman “The notion of understanding the first rule of life is important: don’t lose money” Mario Gabelli "Return of capital is more important than return on capital" Mohnish Pabrai I wonder if bad traders prefer sideways markets, since it is more random and some of them with luck might end up not losing for the first time in their lives?
Education
by MrRenev
5
[Red Apple] "Correction Over???" _ BTC/USD _ 18.07.20Flag pattern that I mentioned is broken to upward. Can go higher ???? Then, Let's start the analysis for today's BTC/USD chart. If you are busy, you can just read below briefly '1. Briefing ' '4. Summary and Strategy' and click '+Thumb up, +Follow' :-) 1. Briefing # Sideways Movement # Penetrate 100EMA # Resistance of Neck-Line on Bitflyer market(refer to yesterday briefing) 2. Day 1) Trend Trend line is being supported 2) Candle Spinning Tops -> not importance 3) EMA a. penetrate 100EMA(orange) -> focus on support b. 20EMA(red) and 50EMA(purple) will be crossed soon. 3. 4H 1) Trend Same as Day analysis 2) EMA the distance between candle and 20EMA(red) is closer. there is possibility to retest 20EMA. 3) Pattern Patterns in previous briefing Double pattern : support neck-line and then going to top again -> Can be changed to Triple Top or Rectangle Flag pattern : broken upper side. now upper side should be supported. 4) Indicators a. Hidden Bullish Divergence was found in previous briefing and Bollinger Band also had possibility to go up-side in short term due to 1H frame. Check the result from Purple Arrow on the chart. b. Now, normal Bearish Divergence is shown from RSI , Stochastics and CCI in 1H frame chart c. Candle is touching upper band of Bollinger. it means it can go-down to base line of Bollinger. Using Indicators just for a reference And check empty accumulated volume range in previous briefing 6) Fibonacci Heavy accumulated volume range 0.382 ~ 0.5 4. Strategy and Summary Almost Same as previous briefing. Bullish View : Penetrate 100EMA and upper side of flag pattern but firstly, neck-line in BITFLYER market should be broken. If you are conservative trader, check this line. Bearish View : I expected market correction will be done at least to Fib. 38.2% (about $6800) and heavy resistance is existed upper side. Therefore, should be careful always before penetration of neck-line If you think my idea is helpful for you, Click '+Thumb up, +Follow' :)
BITFINEX:BTCUSD
by Red_Apple
EURJPY CONSOLIDATION...HI GUYS EURJPY CREATE SIDEWAYS KEEP WATCH AND STAY TUNED FOR FURTHER UPDATES Disclaimer: The information contained in this presentation is solely for educational purposes. Does do not constitute investment advice. I may or I may not take the trade. The risk of trading in securities markets can be substantial. You should carefully consider if engaging in such activity is suitable for your own financial situation. I am not responsible for any liabilities arising from the result of your market involvement or individual trade activities. Hope this idea will inspire some of you! Don't forget to hit the like/follow button if you feel like this post deserves it
Short
by sakthideva
Trading Pumps in a Sideways MarketWe've been trending sideways a lot lately. We mostly have pumps and long consolidations, not a proper trend. So, here are some tips on how you can trade and survive in this market. There are 2 basic ways of trading sideways trends. I'm using the M15 chart to illustrate. 1) Treat everything as a range. Trade breakouts from the range. Place Buy Stop orders above the new highs and Sell stop orders below the new lows and wait for the price to come to you and trigger one of your orders instead of going long/short inside the range to chase the price in either direction. Take profit immediately after the move ends. This way: - you don't have to pay interest for open positions inside the range (sometimes sideways trend can last for days and just maintaining the position becomes more expensive than the potential reward) - you don't care much about direction and teases/fakeouts, you are ready to go either way when a breakout happens - you don't have to manage opened positions and worry about breaking even if market changes direction and goes against your positions On the chart: Green Arrows - Stop Buy Orders Red Arrows - Stop Sell Orders Green dots - a Buy Stop order is triggered, a long position opened, Lime dots - Exit point to take profit Red dots - a Sell Stop order is triggered, short position opened, Magenta dots - Exit point to take profit When price is above EMAs and going up: - look for long entry points, ignore shorts - place a Buy stop above each new high/top - place a Sell stop below 50% retracement of the entire swing or below EMA 100-200 or below key support level (such as 6000) When price is below EMAs and going down: - look for short entry points, ignore longs - place a Sell stop below each new low/bottom - place a Buy stop above 50% retracement of the entire swing or above EMA 100-200 or above key resistance level (such as 6000) The idea behind is that in a strong trend/after pump we usually have 23.6-38.2 corrections, rarely 50%. So, going past 50% after pump usually results in fading and reversal. EMA 200 roughly splits the bear/bull markets. When price is crossing the line far enough it usually means a reversal. EMA 100 is a sort of median line and price tends to come back to it (just like bollinger and pitchfork median lines) EMA 50 is a rough meandering path for the price Don't place orders within the range because the market can always change direction, sudden moves inside the range and traps (yellow spots) can trigger your orders and then go in the opposite direction. It's not perfect but it works. 2) Trade based on RSI overbought/oversold levels. RSI is very useful in ranges and during corrections and doesn't help much during trends, because it's an oscillator. - note prev extreme RSI levels, is it mostly oversold or overbought? - if RSI is mostly oversold (below 30) its curve may not reach the overbought 70 level, you need to adjust the RSI channel to 20-60, where 60 is the new overbought level. Go Long at oversold level 30 or below, Exit/Go Short early at RSI 60 or at the overbought 70 if reached. RSI below 60 is considered a bearish market. - if RSI is mostly overbought (above 70) its curve may not reach the oversold 30 level, you need to adjust the RSI channel to 40-80, where 40 is the new oversold level. Go Short at overbought level 80 or above, Exit/Go Long early at RSI 40 or at the oversold 30 if reached. RSI above 40 is considered a bullish market. - note that RSI does not include the wicks, only bodies (candle close price). Horiz movement cools off. RSI. Arrows on RSI show when to go long/short. Nested Red/Green Rectangles on the chart illustrate the MTF RSI oversold and ovebought concepts. When D1 and all other TFs are RSI oversold/overbought expect the strongest buy/sell reaction because of a colossal support/resistance due to price compression. 3) Don't trade, stay on the sidelines and wait for trend change confirmations Good Luck! This is not a financial advice. Use at your own risk!
by RagingRocketBull
Silver, Symmetrical Triangle AnalysisSilver has slowly created a long-term Symmetrical Triangle Pattern. There is also a Strong Support that already did his job many times, so there's no doubt that it will continue doing it even after the Triangle Breakout will arrive. But now there's a even more important pattern doing very well ; the Rectangle is actually stronger than the Triangle and this pattern can be considered as a long-term Accumulation phase after the big downward trend finished at the beggining of 2016. What do i think it's gonna happen now? Well, i think that price is going to break the bearish resistance of the Triangle (the red line) and retest the resistance of the channel . In my opinion, the probability for it to break the long-term support (green area) is very low and just in the case it will, the area around 15 can be used as a new support level. Sky is not the Limit The informations and the strategies discussed are NOT recommendation to buy, sell or trade any securities. They are strictly for educational and illustrative purposes.
COMEX:SI1!
by UnknownUnicorn1249598
BTC: Bulls Hesitant on Follow Through [MicroAnalysis]BTC Microanalysis: "Forest for the trees but the trees still make the forest." After a good consolidation and pump, bulls are giving up the momentum a little too early by failing the 5th-wave breakout on smaller time frames, taking all 5 wave attempts just to reach the 141 extension. Normal follow through after a consolidation/pump will typically reach the 161 by the 5th wave at minimum, many times by the 3rd wave. As long as BTC holds above 9k, the Adam & Eve scenario is still looking good, but this does point to some sideways action and raises the potential risk of downside for the time being.
BITFINEX:BTCUSD
by serekamina
1
Intraday OpportunityHello buddies, Last prediction is reached. Let's see today forecast. Today my algo shows the daily target is within 6,855-6,858 level, which is already reached by today's transactions. Market may be in sideways mood. The activity range could be between 6660-ish level to 6890-ish level. There is a possibility that market could reach 6,916-ish level. Hit:Miss ratio is 48:52, which is not promising. However, the accuracy for being higher then the opening price is around 80%. The market is in temporal long. Have a nice day.
BITFINEX:BTCUSDLong
by agiprasetiadi
BTC -INVERSE BART SIMPSON HEAD AT PLAYOn my last chart i gave you that Pennant, that i commented meant nothing. It broke down in the beginning but bounced upwards after, manipulation is at play. So TA is incredibly hard to get accurate at the moment... As for now, Inverse Bart head on the 2h Will we create his neck line? Doesn't seem likely , 6900 has been a resistance for BTC as of recently. Bulls tried several times, and volume is low. Maybe while i sleep some new Bulls will break it. If not we shouldn't have much of a drop so not to worry. Sorry about the bland chart btw, i don't feel comfortable making a call on BTC recently because it isn't following most TA rules. If you see the top authors they are mostly wrong, a few times being right.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by tokeylokey66
1
long term closing triangleRemoved many in-analysis parameters & indicators for provide clear vision to readers. Here is the long term lines on both ways. Blue line comes from 25 May 2017 . it is on 7500 $ level. strong support level. If down more, have red line comes from July 2017. it is on 7000 $ level currently. buying around support levels and sell at orange level can be useful. If it will down below red line, stop loss can save life. this triangle will be close latest at 17 April and will have new trend. Watch and see.
BITFINEX:BTCUSD
by SnowUnderSun
ALT SEASON OR BTC BULL RUN?They say people only see what they want to believe, that markets exist to make fools of the overly hopeful... Well, half of the crowd is calling for an alt season, and the other half for a new BTC all time high. IMO both groups are jumping the gun as we are still in a downtrend! In order for either to occur BTC needs to enter a sideways accumulation phase first. On the log 1D I see a clear uptrend & downtrend, based on which I can assume we will narrowly escape this downward spiral in mid-April and have ourselves an alt-season. Why not a BTC bull run? Simple - we can't start another BTC run-up until we consolidate, and historically we see that when BTC consolidates, alts flourish! BTC has yet to move sideways whereas many alts have been bottomed out for months already. Of course, neither alt nor BTC can flourish with the low volume we're having lately - we need a newfound public optimism in the cryptosphere to proceed. Furthermore, for 2018 to be the biggest year for crypto yet, we will need institutional money to enter as well, which we all know is waiting for the green light from regulators. With most of the FUD from this past quarter exhausted, & though its contradictory to my opening sentence, I feel HOPEFUL for the remainder of 2018 :). Just my thoughts, happy trading!
BITFINEX:BTCUSD
by AspiringPro
1