Gold will increase sharply when the Fed reduces interest rates"Capital inflows were widespread, with all regions recording positive increases except for North America, which saw a slight decline for the second consecutive month. Overall, yields fell across regions important and the weakening USD has made gold more attractive to domestic investors," analysts said.
"Lower interest rates are a key factor driving capital flows into the region," analysts said. Additionally, cooling stock markets and political uncertainties related to elections in The UK and France, which have sparked significant capital inflows, have also boosted investor interest in gold.
Although North American gold demand remains tepid, analysts note that it could easily reverse if the Fed starts cutting interest rates. The market forecasts about a 70% chance that the Fed will cut interest rates in September.
"A strong dollar and continued stock market growth may have drawn investors' attention away from gold despite falling US government bond yields," analysts said. "However, flare-ups in geopolitical risks prompted episodic capital inflows, partially offsetting larger outflows during the month."
Signal
XAUUSD : Gold is looking for a direction to create a new peakAfter a sharp decline, gold prices today increased again, fluctuating around 2,369 USD/oz when the Fed Chairman did not comment on reducing interest rates, and global investment funds increased the amount of gold held.
Fed Chairman Jerome Powell told a Senate committee that the economy remains strong. However, he did not make any comments about cutting interest rates, increasing expectations that the Fed will reduce interest rates in September. Accordingly, the USD's upward momentum slowed down, benefiting gold prices today. .
HELE Helen of Troy Limited Options Ahead of EarningsAnalyzing the options chain and the chart patterns of VIST Vista Energy prior to the earnings report this week,
I would consider purchasing the 90usd strike price Calls with
an expiration date of 2024-9-20,
for a premium of approximately $7.50.
If these options prove to be profitable prior to the earnings release, I would sell at least half of them.
XAUUSD Gold Market Analysis: Weekly Overview
Fundamentals
Gold Price Movement: Last week's trading saw gold prices align with our expectations. Following the release of nonfarm payroll data, where the unemployment rate exceeded market forecasts, gold prices climbed above the June 7 high of $2,387 towards the end of the week.
Nonfarm Payroll Data: The June US nonfarm payroll report showed a slight increase in new jobs, surpassing expectations. However, revisions to April and May figures indicated a decrease of 111,000 jobs. The unemployment rate rose to 4.1%, higher than both previous and anticipated values, suggesting a cooling US labor market and increasing investor expectations for a September rate cut.
Interest Rate Expectations: Interest rate observation tools indicate over an 80% probability of a September rate cut, with expectations of two cuts this year. This has driven down US bond yields, favorably impacting gold prices. Given the high nominal and real interest rates, a rate cut would strongly support gold price momentum.
Market Liquidity: Despite last week's strong rebound, further upward movement for gold may be limited due to ongoing low liquidity conditions, which could persist into this week.
Technical Analysis
Resistance and Support Levels: The "head and shoulders" pattern led gold prices to touch the resistance range of $2,370-$2,390 last week, as anticipated. The completion of this pattern, along with oscillator signals, suggests a potential market decline.
Relative Strength Index (RSI): The RSI is turning downward at the neutral level of 50.
Stochastic Oscillator: The Stochastic Oscillator is smoothing in the overbought region.
Key Support Levels:
50-day SMA: $2,346
20-day SMA: $2,333
A break below these levels could lead gold prices to retreat to the neckline at the $2,300 range and potentially test the lower limit of the trading range at $2,276.
Key Resistance Levels:
Immediate Resistance: $2,370-$2,390
Psychological Barrier: $2,400
A successful close above $2,386 would accelerate the testing of the $2,400 psychological barrier.
Market Outlook: While the recent rise in gold prices has rekindled bullish hopes, breaking above or below the current range in the short term appears premature. We expect a broad range of volatile trading patterns to continue throughout the summer, with a primary strategy of buying low and selling high.
This analysis aims to provide a comprehensive and professional overview of the current gold market, highlighting key fundamentals and technical factors influencing price movements
BOOST US COMMENT YOUR IDEAS FOLLOW US
EURUSD Will Collapse! SELL!
My dear followers,
This is my opinion on the EURUSD next move:
The asset is approaching an important pivot point 1.0806
Bias - Bearish
Safe Stop Loss - 1.0836
Technical Indicators: Supper Trend generates a clear short signal while Pivot Point HL is currently determining the overall Bearish trend of the market.
Goal - 1.0759
About Used Indicators:
For more efficient signals, super-trend is used in combination with other indicators like Pivot Points.
———————————
WISH YOU ALL LUCK
GBPJPY Massive Short! SELL!
My dear friends,
GBPJPY looks like it will make a good move, and here are the details:
The market is trading on 206.37 pivot level.
Bias - Bearish
Technical Indicators: Supper Trend generates a clear short signal while Pivot Point HL is currently determining the overall Bearish trend of the market.
Goal - 206.07
About Used Indicators:
Pivot points are a great way to identify areas of support and resistance, but they work best when combined with other kinds of technical analysis
———————————
WISH YOU ALL LUCK
Ethereum On A 7 Year Old Support! Is This The Bottom?Now that crypto has been trading bearish for weeks, there might be a light at the end of this dark tunnel.
Ethereum has seemingly found support on a 7-year old support line, which originated late 2016 when ETH was still trading around 7$.
As seen on the chart, the support line has also signaled a pump back in September of 2023.
If this support holds, it might be the last time that ETH will be trading at 3,000$ forever. On the other hand, if BTC will continue to fall, ETH will likely follow.
It remains to be seen whether ETH bulls can keep the BTC bears in check. I'd say it's more likely that ETH will fall through this support in the near future than not. Nevertheless, ETH is trading at a very interesting place for bullish traders.
GOLD : Gold is increasingly unpredictableXAU/USD has been on the rise since late June, reaching a peak of $2,390 on Friday, representing a 4% gain. This is mainly due to the USD falling by 1%, as gold prices are often more volatile than the USD.
Weak jobs data pushed gold prices up on Friday, weakening the dollar and bringing the timing of an interest rate cut closer. However, it is worth noting that gold decreased by 0.8% immediately after the release of the report.
The market's subsequent reaction was of the "good for evil" variety: labor market weakness increased expectations of an early interest rate cut, which boosted risk appetite. However, this is a very difficult trend to sustain, because not all negative factors in the macroeconomy reduce inflation.
On the contrary, we see wage growth (4.1% over the same period last year) is still higher than inflation (3.3%). At the same time, hiring figures from previous months were revised downward, and the unemployment rate reached a 31-month high.
However, it is likely that gold prices will continue to be under pressure. The 50-day MA at $2,340 is considered the first signal mark. If this zone is broken without resistance from buyers, XAU/USD could quickly retreat to the $2,300 zone, a key level to determine the trend in the coming months. A drop below this level would be considered a break in the uptrend since October, when the Fed first signaled its readiness to cut interest rates.
XAUUSD : Gold is rotating above the old peakWorld gold is fluctuating around 2,363 USD/oz. World gold prices "evaporated" in the context of technology stocks in the US rising sharply. Accordingly, investors focus their capital on stocks, causing cash flow into this precious metal to be limited, causing a disadvantage for gold prices today.
On the other hand, after the gold price increased sharply to 2,391 USD/oz, many investors quickly took profits, especially in May and June 2024, China had 2 consecutive months of not buying gold. This week, the market's attention will be focused on Fed Chairman Jerome Powell's statement in testimony before Congress and US inflation data scheduled for release on July 11.
XAU fell as investors took profitstraders price a more than 72% chance the Fed will cut interest rates by 25 basis points in September, up from 59% last week. Traders are also pricing in the growing possibility of a second interest rate cut in December.
Key US data points for the week include Fed Chairman Powell's speech to the US Congress on Tuesday and Wednesday. Consumer price index; producer prices on Thursday and Friday - will likely influence the central bank's interest rate outlook.
Elsewhere, in weekend news, a coalition of left-wing parties in France, known as the New Popular Front, won the most seats in the National Assembly election, according to initial predictions.
Bluzelle (BLZUSDT): Strategic Spot-Buy OpportunityDuring our recent livestream, we highlighted BLZUSDT as a potential spot-buy opportunity. We identified several key levels of interest for entries and stops.
12-Hour Chart Analysis:
The weekly fair-value gap nearly overlaps with the three-day fair-value gap, making this level a significant potential entry point. Additionally, the lower support zone, which has frequent price interactions and includes another three-day fair-value gap, offers a secondary entry level. We'll place our stop-loss just below the midpoint of the monthly fair-value gap, marked by a blue dotted line. In conclusion, BLZUSDT looks like a promising spot-buy opportunity with clear entry levels and a strategic stop-loss placement. We look forward to seeing new highs well above $0.48.
Yearly VWAP Analysis:
In addition to our usual analysis, let's take a look at the VWAP (Volume Weighted Average Price) charts to fine-tune our strategy. Specifically, we'll focus on the annual VWAP for 2023. The current position of the price is between the 2023 VAH (Volume Area High) and the 2023 VWAP. We expect the price to reach the 2023 VWAP, aligning with our first entry level. Our stop-loss aligns with the 2023 VAL (Volume Area Low), providing extra confidence in this support level. This alignment, though unintentional, suggests strong support.
The annual VWAP chart adds more validation to our BLZ-USDT strategy. Aligning our entry at the 2023 VWAP and setting the stop-loss just below the 2023 VAL strengthens our support levels and makes our setup more robust.
Quarterly VWAP Analysis:
The price has fallen below the 2023 Q4 VAH (Volume Area High) and is now nearing the 2023 Q4 VAL (Volume Area Low). The price is approaching the 2023 Q4 VAL, a crucial support level. Both the 2023 Q3 VAH and the 2023 Q3 VWAP closely align with our primary entry levels, adding further confidence to our strategy.
Our strategy summary involves aligning the primary entry with the 2023 Q3 VAH and the 2023 Q3 VWAP. These levels overlap with our identified fair-value gaps, providing potential support. The quarterly VWAP chart strengthens our confidence in the identified support levels for BLZ-USDT. The overlap between the annual and quarterly VWAP levels at our entry points suggests strong support, making this a promising setup for a spot trade.
XAUUSD analysis for the week 1/07/2024 to 05/07/2024
After touching just above the $2,290 support level on Wednesday, gold prices surged higher intraday. This level has proven to be a formidable support barrier since April, consistently reinforcing itself as the lower boundary of a sideways trading range.
This range has encompassed the majority of price action since April, indicating a neutral mid-term outlook. In the short term, gold is likely to continue oscillating within this established range.
Momentum indicators provide promising signals:
RSI (Relative Strength Index): The RSI has broken above the neutral 50 level, suggesting an increase in buying pressure.
MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): The MACD has made a bullish crossover, indicating a potential shift in momentum towards the upside.
Analysis Summary:
Trend : The recent intraday movement above the $2,290 support level points to a clear upward trend.
Momentum: Bullish signals from the RSI and MACD suggest a positive shift in momentum.
Strategic Recommendation:
Primary Strategy: Buying the dips is recommended, as the strong support level and bullish momentum indicators signal further price increases.
Target Levels:
First resistance target: $2,337
Subsequent resistance target: $2,348 2362 2377-85
Conclusion:
With a clear upward trend, a robust support level at $2,290, and bullish momentum indicators, gold prices are poised to rise. Investors should consider buying on dips, targeting the resistance levels at $2,337 , 2347, 2362, 2377 and 2385.
EURUSD: Bearish Continuation & Short Signal
EURUSD
- Classic bearish setup
- Our team expects bearish continuation
SUGGESTED TRADE:
Swing Trade
Short EURUSD
Entry Point - 1.0833
Stop Loss - 1.0872
Take Profit - 1.0770
Our Risk - 1%
Start protection of your profits from lower levels
❤️ Please, support our work with like & comment! ❤️
BTC - OverSold Soon!Hello TradingView Family / Fellow Traders. This is Richard, also known as theSignalyst.
📈 BTC has been bearish trading within the falling channel marked in red.
Currently, BTC is approaching the lower bound of the channel.
Moreover, it is retesting a strong demand zone $50,000 - $52,000.
🏹 Thus, the highlighted blue circle is a strong area to look for buy setups as it is the intersection of the green demand zone and lower red trendline acting as a non-horizontal support.
📚 As per my trading style:
As #BTC approaches the blue circle zone, I will be looking for bullish reversal setups (like a double bottom pattern, trendline break , and so on...)
📚 Always follow your trading plan regarding entry, risk management, and trade management.
Good luck!
All Strategies Are Good; If Managed Properly!
~Rich
DXY - Strong Again! Soon...Hello TradingView Family / Fellow Traders. This is Richard, also known as theSignalyst.
📈DXY has been overall bullish, trading within the rising wedge marked in red.
Currently, DXY is undergoing a correction and approaching the lower bound of the wedge.
Moreover, it is retesting structure marked in orange.
🏹 Thus, the highlighted blue circle is a strong area to look for trend-following buy setups as it is the intersection of the orange structure and lower red trendline acting as a non-horizontal support.
📚 As per my trading style:
As #DXY approaches the blue circle zone, I will be looking for bullish reversal setups (like a double bottom pattern, trendline break , and so on...)
📚 Always follow your trading plan regarding entry, risk management, and trade management.
Good luck!
All Strategies Are Good; If Managed Properly!
~Rich
XAUUSD : Gold will return to its old peak within the weekWorld gold is fluctuating around 2,395 USD/oz. The world gold market will likely be more exciting this week after escaping the gloom for a long time. The price of this precious metal is expected to be affected by Fed Chairman Jerome Powell's statement at his testimony before Congress, growth data for June, weekly unemployment claims, index reports US producer prices and preliminary survey results on consumer sentiment by the University of Michigan.
Currently, optimism is covering the gold market, as recent data shows cracks in the US economy, the US labor market is increasingly weakening and inflation is decreasing. All the data reinforces the possibility that the Fed will soon introduce monetary policy easing and lower interest rates, which should support the price of the precious metal gold.
GOLD : Gold will be strong and have new peaksGold prices have soared this year - hitting a record in May - due to central bank purchases, while policymakers in countries including India, China and Singapore is looking to diversify its reserves. The precious metal is also supported by geopolitical tensions and bets that the US Federal Reserve will start cutting interest rates as inflation cools.
Christopher Wong, strategist at Oversea-Chinese Banking, said "the possibility of gold prices falling should not be ruled out" following the PBOC data. "But it is not unusual for China to temporarily stop buying gold, because gold prices have increased quite sharply."
According to data released on Sunday, the amount of gold bullion held by the PBOC was unchanged at 72.8 million troy ounces at the end of last month. The PBOC decided not to add to reserves in May, ending an 18-month net purchase.
According to Krishan Gopaul, an analyst at the World Gold Council (WGC), the Reserve Bank of India added more than 9 tons of gold in June, based on weekly data. This is the highest figure since July 2022 and it shows that India's gold reserves have increased by 37 tonnes to 841 tonnes this year.
Gold prices fell 0.3% to 2,385.55 USD/ounce at 10:40 a.m. in Singapore. The DXY index remained unchanged. Silver prices held above $31 an ounce after rising more than 7% last week, while palladium and platinum fell.
According to Charu Chanana, a strategist at Saxo Capital Markets in Singapore, it is possible that rising gold prices have prevented the PBOC from buying. However, she said gold could still rally further amid growing expectations of the Fed's monetary easing policy this year, as well as ongoing geopolitical risks.
World gold increased sharply after many fluctuationsThe world gold market will likely be more exciting this week after escaping the gloom for a long time. The price of this precious metal is expected to be affected by the Fed Chairman's statement
Optimism is covering the gold market, as recent data shows cracks in the US economy, a weakening US labor market and falling inflation. All the data reinforces the possibility that the Fed will soon introduce monetary policy easing and lower interest rates, which should support the price of the precious metal gold.
Gold price on Kitco closed the trading week at 2,388 USD/ounce. Gold futures price in August traded at 2,399 USD/ounce.
Kitco News's latest weekly gold survey shows that almost all experts and retailers have a positive outlook for gold prices this week.
2,285-2,448 created firmer support and resistance levels.Gold prices are expected to increase because interest rates will lower and the USD will weaken. Gold prices are testing levels above 2,400 USD/ounce. Indicators show that gold prices have an upward trend.
Gold prices are expected to continue to increase in the near future. Gold price for August delivery is approaching 2,400 USD/ounce.
World gold price opened at the beginning of the week at 2,326.72 USD/ounce, maintaining within the range of 15 USD on Monday and Tuesday sessions. On Wednesday, a series of economic data announced, world gold price increased to 2,363.77
The US Federal Reserve (Fed) is still the focus of attention. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell testified with the Senate Banking Committee and the House Financial Services Committee.
The market will also pay close attention to the US CPI in June, weekly unemployment claims, and the University of Michigan's preliminary survey of consumer sentiment.