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THE KOG REPORT THE KOG REPORT 4H – LAST ONE OF THE YEAR! In last week’s KOG report we said we would be looking for price to find support on the open into path illustration and then attempt the move upside into the 2630-35 range which we suggested would be a reasonable target for any long trades. It’s at this level we wanted to take out our longs and attempt the short trade sticking with the bias of the week which was the 2660 bearish below level. It was a ranging week with minimal movement considering recent weeks, however, we managed to get the resistance level and then the move down on the red boxes where we suggested traders take partials and then leave runners at BE into the close. Another decent week on the markets in Camelot not only on Gold but the other pairs we trade and analyse. So, what can we expect in the week ahead? Well, we again have that order region of 2630-35 which we ideally would like to see visited one more time, however, there is a key level of resistance sitting at the 2625-7 region which we would price to attempt during the early session before settling again. Ideally, we would like to see one of these levels reject giving a further move downside into the lower support levels which are active on the red boxes. The first level being 2610 and below that 2600-4 which will need to break for us to go lower into the new year! It’s a really important week with the yearly candle close above the 2655 level to confirm further movement upside. The key levels for the end of year, support 2596, needs to break and close below in order to form the structure to go lower and break the range. Resistance 2640 needs to break upside and hold in order to see more gains on this precious metal. Simple one this week as we’re still on our festive break and spending limited time on the charts. We’ll update and post the analysis for the wider community as we go through the week. Otherwise, wishing you the best of success in your trading journey for the New Year and thank you for being with us. KOG’s Bias for the week: Bearish below 2640 with targets below 2610, 2604, 2596 and below that 2580 Bullish on break of 2640 with targets above 2655 and above that 2665 RED BOXES: Break above 2625 for 2630, 2635 and 2638 in extension of the move Break below 2613 for 2604, 2597, 2592 in extension of the move Please do support us by hitting the like button, leaving a comment, and giving us a follow. We’ve been doing this for a long time now providing traders with in-depth free analysis on Gold, so your likes and comments are very much appreciated. As always, trade safe. KOG
FX:XAUUSD
by KnightsofGold
8
THE KOG REPORT THE KOG REPORT: In last week’s KOG Report we said we would be looking for the levels of resistance above at the 2670-75 region where we anticipated the short trade to come from and the lower levels of support standing at 2630 where we wanted to see a reaction in price. We managed to get the short just below around the 2665 region giving us a nice start to the week in Camelot, targeting lower and breaking through 2630. We then continued to short completing the bias target levels as well as the red box targets which were shared with the wider community. Pre-FOMC we suggested traders pause and wait for the reversal which we managed to get based on the indicator and the FOMC report enabling us to capture the move upside into the close of the week, giving us a phenomenal pip capture on Gold. Add to that the other pairs we’ve traded and analysed through the week, and it was a nice end to week giving us an opportunity to now take it lightly for the remainder of the year. So, what can we expect in the week ahead? For this week we will be expecting thin volume so potential for ranging and slow movement with sudden burst of unexpected volume. We again have the key level of 2630-35 above which is a reasonable target region for the start of the week as long as the support level just below here holds us up 2610. If we can start the week with a move into that region we feel an opportunity to long is there with the first region being 2630 and above that 2635. 2635 is the level we’re anticipating a break of into the higher levels of 2650-55 and above that 2660-6, which is where we ideally want to be waiting for the short opportunity to take this back down into the lower levels with potential to then break below the 2600 level. We say it a lot but this week and most probably for the remainder of the year we will be taking this level to level, hence the report is showing you’re the 4H red boxes which together with our 15min and 1H indicators work well to capture the moves for intra-day trading across all pairs. KOG’s bias for the week: Bearish below 2660 with targets below 2610, 2596, 2580 and 2578 Bullish on break of 2660 with targets above 2667 and above that 2670 RED BOXES: Break of 2625 for 2630, 2635, 2645 and 2660 in extension of the move Break of 2610 for 2606, 2590, and 2680 in extension of the move Please do support us by hitting the like button, leaving a comment, and giving us a follow. We’ve been doing this for a long time now providing traders with in-depth free analysis on Gold, so your likes and comments are very much appreciated. As always, trade safe. KOG
FX:XAUUSD
by KnightsofGold
14
THE KOG REPORT - Election update:Continuing with this chart we've managed to navigate the move from the all time high into the lower region which we had marked with a circle for Camelot as a potential RIP zone. There was a slight stretch on the move however, we did get the bounce giving us a fantastic long trade. On this particular chart we would like to see where price closes on the weekly to make a further assessment. For now, if you followed, it moved well. As always, trade safe. KOG
OANDA:XAUUSD
by KnightsofGold
2
THE KOG REPORT - ELECTION SPECIAL THE KOG REPORT: This week’s KOG Report is a little different this week due to the upcoming elections. For that reason, we’re going to share the levels and potential movement since we are almost guaranteed to see some extreme movement over the coming sessions. The chart was shared in Camelot together with the analysis 4yrs ago which worked well. On the left chart you can see the 2020 reaction to the elections giving a powerful movement across the markets and gold moving over 2000pips in days. We’ve shown this chart to make new and less experienced traders aware of what can happen based on any result! Price will whipsaw, they will chop and change direction and when they move, it will really move. IF, and it’s a BIG IF, you’re going to attempt to trade it, please make sure your lot sizes are sensible, and your risk model is flexible enough to adapt to sudden changes in direction. Now the chart on the right. We have drawn a path, but it’s based more on a potential fractal rather than set in stone. The levels however are important, and potentially if targeted can give traders opportunities to capture the bounces or, give them a better understanding of where price can go before taking a breather. We’re close to the 2800 level but as you can see, we’ve struggled to break it, this usually just means that price has travelled enough to take a slight pause in direction, and requires a pullback, which is what we analysed and traded last week. How far thought, with extreme news and volatility entails caution, our immediate support and resistance levels hardly work in these scenarios. So, when we look at extreme levels on the chart we can see the following: We have resistance above on the daily at 2745 which needs a daily close above to go higher. This flips our support level into the 2715 level which looks like a decent level for price to attempt in the coming sessions. Our order region is sitting at the psychological level of 2700 with the extension of the move into the 2680-5 level. This, if attempted could give traders and opportunity to take the long back up towards the 2730-35 red box level which will have also flipped into resistance. This is the level currently in play and needs to be monitored as this is the order region they’re using to propel the price in either direction. It’s also the reason they’re accumulating here and start the pre-event range. Break above, and we should see bulls’ step in and force price higher, as shown in the illustration on the chart. The range is big, the high in sight is the 2820-34 region, which if attacked and rejected can give us opportunities to capture the larger short trade, while the 2575-65 level is sticking out for the undercut low. To be totally honest, knowing what can happen and how price can move, it’s the same strategy as trading NFP and FOMC. Don’t trade the volume driven candles, wait for price to move, use the levels and the red boxes, and then, with a risk model in place take a sensible trade if you’re going to trade it. The above is just our view and more for educational purposes. We will continue to use our proven red box strategy, indicators and our trusted algo Excalibur to guide us through the markets. Good luck for the week ahead! KOG’s bias for the week: Bearish below 2744 with targets below 2720, 2714 and below that 2702 Bullish on break of 2744 with targets above 2792 and above that 2803 Red boxes: Break above 2744 for 2753, 2765, 2780 Break below 2730 for 2715, 2705, 2695 Please do support us by hitting the like button, leaving a comment, and giving us a follow. We’ve been doing this for a long time now providing traders with in-depth free analysis on Gold, so your likes and comments are very much appreciated. As always, trade safe. KOG
OANDA:XAUUSD
by KnightsofGold
6
THE KOG REPORTTHE KOG REPORT: In last week’s KOG Report we said we wouldn’t be looking to long for the early part of the week, instead gave the path moving up into the 2727 and 2742 price targets where we wanted to attempt the short. This worked well during the early part of the week, but we didn’t get to complete the move, instead our red boxes kicked in and we continued to look upside into the 2739 and 2745 price point. We then updated traders with the hotspots at the 2750-55 region and suggested looking for a reaction in price there mid-week which was tapped into and rejected giving the lovely move down that we experienced completing the first red box target 2710 before the bounce upside. It wasn’t an easy week, very choppy and frustrating with burst of volume but we didn’t do to badly completing 6 gold Excalibur targets on top of the bias level targets and the red box targets. Small stops and big captures should have given our followers a decent week on Gold moving level to level with the red boxes we share as well as KOG’s bias of the day. Excalibur performed again with 21 targets completed across the other pairs we trade. So, what can we expect in the week ahead? For this week we’re seeing a little more bullish movement on Gold but there’s a level above which needs to be watched and needs to be broken for us to go higher and target that 2800 level! So we’ll look for price to attempt the 2750-55 region during the early session and if rejected there is potential for the pullback to present itself into the 2735-32 red box defence. It’s this 2732-35 region we feel an opportunity to the long is available back up to attempt 2763 and above that 2765. Please note, 2765 is the level we need to break and hold above for us to attempt to target higher pricing for now. Those looking to attempt the short trades should be looking at the levels of 2760-5 and if broken 2780-5 for opportunities to capture the pullbacks and maybe even a short swing. Now, we have a slight issue here with the extension of the move this week and with a lot of news to come together with it being the end of the month, we’re concerned about profit taking and a potential sell off, so for that reason, we’ll play level to level on the upside picking the right levels and using the red boxes for our entries and exits which have proven to give the 50-70pip captures quite easily. KOG’s BIAS FOR THE WEEK: Bullish above 2730 with targets above 2755, 2762 and 2779 Bearish on break of 2730 with target below 2709 RED BOXES: Break above 2755 for 2762, 2768, 2780 Break below 2742 for 2732, 2720, 2709 Good luck for the week. Please do support us by hitting the like button, leaving a comment, and giving us a follow. We’ve been doing this for a long time now providing traders with in-depth free analysis on Gold, so your likes and comments are very much appreciated. As always, trade safe. KOG
FX:XAUUSD
by KnightsofGold
10