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AVAXUSDT gives Bullish indicationsAVAXUSDT has finally broken out of the consolidation zone that has been developing since early August. On the weekly timeframe, the market formed an inside bar pattern, and the price has now surged above it, signalling a bullish outlook. Like many altcoins, AVAXUSDT has tested historical lows, revisiting levels from November 2023, where a significant price surge previously occurred. On the 4H timeframe, the price action has also broken through a triangle pattern, marking the end of an accumulation phase around 20.00 and indicating a potential bullish move. The market may retest the channel border and upward trendline. The target is the resistance zone around 27.50
GOLD Analysis | Mines & World Events | OfficialKieranTrewick | Gold In Depth Weekly Analysis
Gold Mine Productions :
XAUUSD Surged last week reaching 2 new all time highs of $2,500 and $2,530 amidst ongoing tensions in the middle east, BTC reaching over 90% mined whilst Gold mine productions are struggling to reach the last few years production ratio as they declare it is getting harder to find the precious metal, although the first quarter of 2024 we saw production increase by 4% essentially we have not seen any growth since 2016/2018 with the annual production rate staying around 3,000 tons.
New deposits are becoming increasingly harder to find although we have seen some over the recent years such as the current most productive mine based in Uzbekistan and China still leading the race with Australia following closely behind but one thing they have in common is reports of increasingly difficult new metal deposits found.
Aside from the discovery process, government permits getting harder to secure and requiring more time to come through have made mining more difficult. Securing licenses and permits needed before mining companies can start operations can take several years.
USD News Correlations :
Moving onto recent USD events where we saw that the asian markets have remained cautious this Friday as investors closely watch for US Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's speech at Jackson Hole, seeking new insights into the future direction of interest rates. Traders are anticipating significant rate cuts from the Fed due to indications of a weakening labor market.
This risk-averse sentiment has driven increased demand for safe-haven assets like US government bonds, leading to lower Treasury yields and a decline in the US Dollar. The Dollar's weakness is also compounded by a fresh round of selling against the Japanese Yen, following hawkish comments from Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda, who spoke to the parliament on Friday.
Governor Ueda reiterated his readiness to hike interest rates if inflation appears set to consistently reach the 2.0% target, though he expressed caution about potential instability in financial markets.
Gold, despite a recent recovery, seems poised for its second consecutive weekly decline, with a Fed rate cut in September widely expected. However, Powell's upcoming remarks will be key in determining the extent of future easing measures.
On Thursday, gold prices fell by about 1% as the US Dollar bounced back strongly from over a one-year low against other major currencies, amid deteriorating risk sentiment spurred by disappointing US S&P Global business PMI and Jobless Claims data. Additionally, traders have been adjusting their positions ahead of Powell's anticipated speech at Jackson Hole on Friday.
Gold prices rebounded on Friday after two days of losses, rising as the dollar and Treasury yields fell sharply. This came after Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell confirmed expectations for upcoming interest rate cuts.
At the Jackson Hole conference, Powell stated that the Fed is prepared to lower interest rates from their current peak as the labor market shows signs of slowing. He emphasized that future rate cuts would depend on economic data and risks.
Following Powell's remarks, the dollar index dropped 0.83 points to 100.67, and Treasury yields also declined, with the two-year note at 3.926% and the ten-year note at 3.817%.
JPY News Correlation :
According to Market Analyst Konstantin Oldenburger from CMC Markets, the relationship between the Japanese Yen and gold prices has strengthened once again, and a stronger Yen could be a positive sign for gold.
Oldenburger noted that the Bank of Japan might have stepped in to stabilize the weakened Yen last Thursday. He suggested that such interventions could become more feasible if the Federal Reserve shifts its monetary policy stance.
He further explained that U.S. stocks generally perform well when interest rates are high because liquidity flows back into the USD. However, when rates decrease, this liquidity tends to exit the dollar and seek alternative investments globally. "The Yen could gain from this reallocation," he remarked.
After the U.S. released its June CPI data last Thursday, the USD/JPY pair dropped over 2%, sparking speculation that Japan’s Ministry of Finance had intervened.
It is noted that hedge funds currently have limited long positions in the Yen and mainly hold short positions, which could need to be covered if a short squeeze occurs. If the Yen continues to strengthen, hedge funds may be under more pressure to reduce these short positions. Historically, a stronger Yen has been positively correlated with gold prices, suggesting that gold could also see gains.
Gold prices continued to climb on Tuesday due to increased safe-haven demand from China. The People’s Bank of China (PBoC) issued new import quotas for gold to banks, sparking speculation about a surge in demand, according to broker SP Angel. The demand for gold as a safe haven in China rose after Chinese 10-year government bond yields hit record lows last week, leading Chinese investors to look for alternative safe-haven assets, with gold being a prime choice and as we know the chinese yuan is heavily correlated with the japanese yen.
Conclusion
With gold currently priced at $2,511.36, the outlook remains bullish in the short to medium term, especially if current economic uncertainties persist or worsen. Monitoring central bank policies, inflation data, and geopolitical events will be crucial for assessing how high gold prices could go from here. The potential for reaching $2,600 or even higher is present, particularly if market conditions align favorably for gold.
What are your thoughts on Gold and its future outlook, let me know in the comments below!
ULTA Beauty Options Ahead of EarningsIf you haven`t sold the Double Top on ULTA:
Now analyzing the options chain and the chart patterns of ULTA Beauty prior to the earnings report this week,
I would consider purchasing the 380usd strike price Calls with
an expiration date of 2024-8-30,
for a premium of approximately $14.10.
If these options prove to be profitable prior to the earnings release, I would sell at least half of them.
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Gold Trading Strategy: Resistance at 2520 Reinforces Bearish OutIn my analysis yesterday, I mentioned that Gold could start correcting, and that rallies should be sold. This prediction played out as expected: after attempting to rise above the 2520 mark, the price began to decline, reaching an intraday low just below the critical 2500 level.
Although the bulls tried to regain control, they faltered again around the 2520 level, indicating a strong resistance at this point.
This suggests that a solid ceiling has formed at 2520, and further declines in Gold's price are likely.
As of now, the price is hovering just above 2500, and my strategy remains unchanged: sell during rallies.
The first target for the bears could be the support zone around 2485.
However, in my opinion, if the price decisively breaks below 2500, a more appropriate target would be 2460. This bearish outlook would be negated by a daily close above 2520.
Bitcoin- back to channels resistance?Since March, Bitcoin has been trading within a clear downward channel, making lower highs and lower lows. While this suggests a downtrend, it should be viewed as a correction within the broader uptrend that began in early 2023.
From a long-term perspective, Bitcoin needs to clear the 68k level to aim for new all-time highs. In the short term, the sharp reversal from just below 50k has been significant, and it’s possible that a higher low has formed around 56k.
However, for the next upward move to gain traction, bulls must break through the local resistance at 61.5k.
If this resistance is cleared, the price could once again test the falling trend line, which currently lies around 68k.
XAUUSD Retracement and Trend ContinuationXAUUSD is currently undergoing a pullback following a strong bullish move. The support area between 2485 and 2500 offers an opportunity to consider a long trade, especially if the price shows bullish signs, such as a false breakout. From this support zone, the price could retest the resistance area, as the price action seems to be forming a complex pullback. However, it's crucial to remain cautious, as there is still a chance the price could dip lower, particularly since the daily timeframe shows a bullish candle with a long wick. The target is the resistance zone at 2529
Gold- Correction or continuation?Yesterday, gold corrected Friday's strong upward move and dropped precisely into my buy zone. A recovery followed, with the uptrend resuming; however, the price was unable to surpass the recent all-time high (ATH) and began to decline again.
While there is a possibility that a double-top pattern could be forming, this has not been confirmed, and the overall trend remains strongly bullish.
In my opinion, bulls have little to worry about as long as the price stays above the 2480-2485 zone.
Buying on dips should continue to be the strategy.
BABA Alibaba Group Holding Limited Options Ahead of EarningsIf you haven`t bought the dip on BABA:
Now analyzing the options chain and the chart patterns of BABA Alibaba Group Holding Limited prior to the earnings report this week,
I would consider purchasing the 85usd strike price Calls with
an expiration date of 2024-9-20,
for a premium of approximately $2.38.
If these options prove to be profitable prior to the earnings release, I would sell at least half of them.
Gold could continue its riseLast week was marked by significant volatility in gold prices, with fluctuations amounting to hundreds of pips. However, on Friday, the bulls took full control, driving the price above the important milestone of 2500.
Currently, the price is undergoing a minor correction and consolidation phase. I expect it to resume its upward trend once this period concludes. The 2480 zone offers strong support, and any dips into this area should be considered buying opportunities.
The first target could be set at Friday's high of 2510, with a second target at the 2520 zone, which aligns with the measured target for the recent small triangle pattern.
SNOW Snowflake Options Ahead of EarningsIf you haven`t sold SNOW before the previous earnings:
Now analyzing the options chain and the chart patterns of SNOW Snowflake prior to the earnings report this week,
I would consider purchasing the 110usd strike price Puts with
an expiration date of 2024-9-20,
for a premium of approximately $2.70.
If these options prove to be profitable prior to the earnings release, I would sell at least half of them.
M Macy's Options Ahead of EarningsIf you haven`t sold M before the previous earnings:
Now analyzing the options chain and the chart patterns of M Macy's prior to the earnings report this week,
I would consider purchasing the 17usd strike price Calls with
an expiration date of 2024-8-30,
for a premium of approximately $1.47.
If these options prove to be profitable prior to the earnings release, I would sell at least half of them.
Gold- Strong volatility, no trend change thoughYesterday was another highly volatile day for Gold. After initially breaking above the 2460 resistance and reaching a high of around 2470, the price dropped sharply to a low of 2433. Following an hour and a half of intense fluctuations, the price settled in the middle of the range.
Despite these strong moves, the overall trend remains bullish, and I still anticipate a new all-time high and a break above 2500. However, this scenario could be delayed if there is a daily close below 2430.
Gold- will bulls regoup lower?As discussed yesterday, I maintain a bullish outlook on Gold and expect the price to rise above 2500. As anticipated, the price dipped below 2450 yesterday, triggering my buy order.
However, the subsequent recovery from this dip has been less encouraging than expected, prompting me to move my stop loss to break even.
From a technical standpoint, Gold's price has fallen below the support level of a recent top consolidation. Unless the bulls reclaim the 2460 level, there is a risk of a further decline.
Currently, the price stands at 2455, and my trade is running with a modest profit of 65 pips. However, unless we break above 2460, my short-term bullish outlook remains cautious.
Gold is "asking" for 2500Monday has been a strong day for gold bulls, with the price surging by approximately 500 pips. After reaching a new local high yesterday, the price began a typical correction and is now consolidating above the 2460 support level.
My outlook for gold remains bullish, and I'm looking to buy on dips. The 2450 zone would be an ideal entry point.
For short-term traders, a target could be the 2480 zone, which is where the last high was set. However, I wouldn't be surprised if the bulls attempt to push the price towards the significant 2500 milestone.
USD/JPY SELL STOP@146.808Hi Traders we have another potential sell trade on USD/JPY SELL. analysis taken from H4 to H1. last week trade played very well. this week still starting on good side.
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Gold could rise to 2460After a significant drop of nearly 1,000 pips last Monday, gold has established strong support at 2,380 and began to recover mid-week, reaching the 2,430 resistance zone.
The recent pullback from this resistance found support at 2,415—a level that has served as both support and resistance since the beginning of the month. Once again, support has formed higher, this time at 2,420.
At the time of writing, the price is hovering around 2,435, and we could see a clear breakout to the upside in the hours.
My strategy is to buy on dips, and I will remain bullish as long as the price stays above 2,415.