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Gold- Lower high forming, or correction done?In my post from yesterday, I mentioned my expectation for a new drop of 500 pips in $OANDA:XAUUSD. However, despite the price dropping by around 400 pips during intraday trading, my sell order placed just above the 2400 zone was not filled, resulting in me missing out on this drop (my target was hit but not my pending sell) Upon reviewing the chart, it's evident that while my bearish outlook remains unchanged and I still anticipate Gold needing to drop below 2300 to complete the correction, the situation is not as straightforward as initially thought. The swift reversal following the drop below the 2360 support zone is not very encouraging for bearish sentiment. Additionally, considering the prevailing bullish trend, it's important to acknowledge that trading on the sell side entails trading within a correctionary phase. Nevertheless, there is a silver lining amidst this uncertainty. We now have two distinct levels to reference in our analysis on a daily closing price basis: 2390 and 2360. A close above or below either of these levels could provide a clearer indication of market direction.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by Mihai_Iacob
6
GbpUsd- Correction could offer us a good sell entryIn my post from last week regarding FX:GBPUSD , I mentioned my anticipation of a drop below the 1.25 support zone, along with an expectation for a continuation of the downtrend by 500 pips. These expectations remain unchanged. Moreover, with recent inflation data released from the UK surpassing expectations, there's a possibility of a relief rally being triggered. I plan to capitalize on this correction by initiating short trades, primarily focusing on levels above 1.25. A deviation from this outlook would occur with a daily close above 1.2650. As previously stated, my medium-term target for GBPUSD is the 1.2 zone.
Short
by Mihai_Iacob
3
XauUsd could drop 500 once moreSince Friday's blow-off top, OANDA:XAUUSD has exhibited strong volatility. Initially, the price tested the crucial 2325 support level, followed by a robust reversal to retest the 2400 mark. Although the long-term outlook remains bullish, I believe we are currently entering a corrective phase. Given the heightened volatility and the lofty levels at which Gold is trading, there may be promising selling opportunities in the near future. Technically, the recent 700-pip upward movement from the 2325 support appears corrective, as the price exhibits overlapping rather than impulsive behavior. Moreover, the 2400 level is likely to attract significant selling pressure. In summary, rallies should be viewed as selling opportunities, with a target at 2325 for a retest of support. Traders should also monitor the short-term support zone between 2375 and 2380. A breach of this support could signal that yesterday's peak marks the conclusion of this correction.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by Mihai_Iacob
6
UsdJpy is pressing and pressing and pressing. 155 next?Since March 20th, when FX:USDJPY once again reached the 151.50 zone, marking a decades-high for this pair, the price has been fluctuating within an extremely tight range. However, upon closer observation of the price action, it becomes evident that USDJPY is pressing against this resistance level, with dips being consistently bought. Even during Friday's NFP release, when USD was being sold, USDJPY experienced a quick reversal. These signs indicate a potential upward breakout, with 155 being the next target in such a scenario. I maintain a bullish outlook on this pair as long as the price remains above 150, and in my opinion, buying dips is the preferred strategy.
Long
by Mihai_Iacob
1
XauUsd- New leg down possible even in light of geopoliticalsFriday proved to be a challenging day for OANDA:XAUUSD traders, marked by extreme volatility in the market. Following an initial surge to a new all-time high, Gold experienced a drastic drop of 1000 pips, settling near the day's lowest point. Adding to the uncertainty, tensions in the Middle East escalated... Despite these events, a careful examination of the chart suggests a strong possibility of another significant downturn, potentially dipping below the 2300 mark. While the Asian Session saw a brief spike above the 2360 resistance zone at the start of the week, this level has thus far held steady. Furthermore, a short-term analysis of the 15-minute chart reveals the formation of a symmetrical triangle, typically indicating a continuation pattern. Considering these factors, while there remains a chance of another spike towards the 2380 zone, my outlook for the upcoming days remains consistent with my analysis from Saturday. I anticipate a further decline, targeting the 2280 support level.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by Mihai_Iacob
5
Platinum- Can it Bridge the Gap with Gold?For the past 10 months, OANDA:XPTUSD has been trading within a range between approximately 850 to 1000. However, upon closer examination of this range, it appears to resemble a rounded bottom formation and also after dipping below 900 at the beginning of March, Platinum has been establishing higher lows, suggesting that the price is ready for a strong rise. Conservative traders may want to consider waiting for a break above 1000. In such an instance, the price could potentially accelerate and reach 1300 in the medium term. On the other hand, more aggressive traders could opt to buy dips near 950. With a stop loss set below 850 and a target of 1300, this strategy could potentially yield a risk-to-reward ratio of more than 1:3.
OANDA:XPTUSDLong
by Mihai_Iacob
EurUsd- 1.05 is a strong possibilityOn Tuesday, April 9th, I posted that rallies in the 1.09 zone, which represents the resistance of the falling trend line for FX:EURUSD , should be sold with a target at the 1.07 zone support level. The following day, CPI figures came in hotter than expected, triggering the anticipated drop. Now, with the pair at the support level, what can we anticipate next? Upon examining the chart, it's evident that the euro has shown weakness throughout the year, with rallies being consistently sold off. Additionally, this marks the third test of this support in 2024, and since December's high, the pattern is a descending triangle (and if we trace back from November, we could even speculate a head and shoulders pattern). Considering these factors collectively, I anticipate a break below 1.07 with a target at the 1.05 support level. Furthermore, if we consider the measured target for both the triangle and head and shoulders patterns, we might even see a drop to 1.02 in the medium term. Any rallies approaching the 1.08 mark should be viewed as selling opportunities in pursuit of a favorable risk-to-reward ratio.
Short
by Mihai_Iacob
1
GbpUsd could dive at least 500 pips if not even moreFor nearly six months, the price action of FX:GBPUSD has been rather dull, to say the least, with the pair confined within a 250-pip range. This stagnation is particularly notable for a pair as volatile as the cable. However, upon examining a weekly chart, we can draw some conclusions and gain perspective on potential future movements. Three factors lead me to believe that a drop of at least 500 pips is in the cards for GBP/USD: 1. We've witnessed a false breakout to the upside, and typically, in the case of false breakouts, the asset tends to break in the opposite direction. 2. It's highly likely that this week will conclude with a bearish engulfing pattern on our chart. 3. Although not textbook-perfect, the structure of the last six months resembles a head and shoulders pattern. Considering these factors collectively, I anticipate a downward break, with the initial support just above 1.2 coming into focus. P.S: Given the pair's volatility and prolonged range-bound trading, in the event of a downward break, the movement could be quite violent. I wouldn't be surprised if we see a drop of 1,000 pips.
Short
by Mihai_Iacob
8
Gold- Correction over? 2350 zone holds the keyYesterday, the CPI report revealed higher-than-expected numbers, which triggered a selling spree on OANDA:XAUUSD , causing the price of gold to drop to 2319 after the release. However, this downturn was swiftly reversed, and the price hasn't reached the liquidity zone from above 2300 and also the second attempt from bears to push the price in that zone resulted in a higher low at 2325. Furthermore, upon examining the hourly chart, it's evident that the price movement is well defined by a rising channel, and yesterday's reversal occurred precisely at the channel's support. While the bulls aren't out of the woods just yet, yesterday's price action indicates that there is still a strong demand for gold. From a technical standpoint, as mentioned earlier, we observed a reversal from the channel's support within a robust uptrend, which is a positive sign for buyers. However, for confirmation and to consider this correction concluded, we need to see stabilization above 2350. Once this happens, a new all-time high is highly probable, and bulls could potentially target the 2400 zone.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Mihai_Iacob
5
ICP- Correction over and rise to 22 next?As you're aware, I've been very bullish on BINANCE:ICPUSDT during this bull cycle, consistently predicting growth, with the last target at the 20 zone already achieved. Following this encounter with resistance, the coin began to reverse course, entering a correction phase, and yesterday it reached support at the 15 zone. I believe the correction may be over now, and I anticipate a new upward movement, possibly reaching levels around 22.
Long
by Mihai_Iacob
6
UsdCad- New rise to 1.39?Towards the end of last year, FX:USDCAD found itself testing the crucial support zone at 1.32. Subsequently, the pair reversed its course and, as of the beginning of February, has been consistently forming higher lows on our daily chart while pressing the significant resistance level at 1.36. I anticipate that this resistance will ultimately be breached, paving the way for a rise towards 1.39. My bullish stance on this pair remains intact as long as the sequence of lower highs is not violated.
Long
by Mihai_Iacob
EurUsd is approaching important resistanceSince the start of the year, the price action of FX:EURUSD has been clearly confined within a descending triangle, with a base formed at 1.07. Recently, the pair reversed once again from this crucial level and, at the time of writing, is trading at 1.0856, close to the descending trend line of the triangle. A rise towards the 1.09 resistance level could provide bears with a favorable entry point for a new drop towards support. However, the negation of this scenario occurs if the price closes towards 1.1 on a daily basis.
Short
by Mihai_Iacob
4
XauUsd- Will CPI trigger a 500 pips drop?Fundamentals: Given the persistent challenge of downshifting inflation within the U.S. economy this year, market participants eagerly await the release of March Consumer Price Index (CPI) figures by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics on Wednesday. This report carries significant potential to induce volatility across various asset classes, necessitating traders to brace themselves for potentially volatile market conditions, particularly if the incoming data deviates from expectations. Projections indicate that the headline CPI is expected to have risen by 0.3% monthly, which would elevate the yearly reading to 3.4% from the previous 3.2%. Similarly, the core CPI, excluding food and energy, is anticipated to exhibit a 0.3% increase on a seasonally adjusted basis. However, the 12-month rate is forecasted to moderate to 3.7% from the prior 3.8%, marking a modest but encouraging step toward addressing inflationary concerns. While recent hotter-than-anticipated CPI and employment figures have prompted a shift in Fed interest rate expectations towards a more hawkish stance in recent weeks, investors still perceive a greater than 50% probability that policymakers will maintain their current stance at the June meeting. Nonetheless, this sentiment could be subject to change if price pressures exhibit signs of reacceleration, jeopardizing progress toward disinflation. Potential scenarios (in theory): 1. CPI report exceeds projections: Should the CPI report surpass expectations, market participants are likely to interpret this as a signal that inflationary pressures are resurging. This would challenge the notion that earlier price spikes observed this year were transitory, thereby reinforcing the likelihood of a prolonged struggle to restore price stability. Consequently, the Fed may reconsider its policy outlook, potentially deferring the commencement of its easing cycle. This scenario is anticipated to be supportive for the U.S. dollar but unfavorable for XauUsd. 2.Inflation figures fall below expectations: Conversely, if the inflation numbers come in below expectations, markets are expected to respond positively, particularly if the deviation is substantial. This outcome could prompt traders to bolster their expectations of the Fed initiating rate cuts in June, potentially amounting to at least 75 basis points of easing this year, aligning with the central bank's prior dot plot projections. A dovish repricing of interest rate expectations is likely to exert downward pressure on Treasury yields, thereby dampening the U.S. dollar while bolstering XauUsd. Technicals: From a technical standpoint, XAUUSD has been on a constant upward trajectory since March 25th, with only one red daily candle observed thus far. Additionally, since April 1st, XAUUSD has achieved an all-time high each day, signaling a potential correction on the horizon. Looking at resistance levels, we have encountered one significant resistance point indicated by yesterday’s intraday double top at 2365. On the downside, key support levels begin at 2330 and are further reinforced by the important zone around 2300. Putting aside the fundamentals outlined earlier, in my personal opinion, I anticipate XAUUSD to correct by at least 500 pips this week, regardless of the outcome of the Consumer Price Index data. I am inclined to sell in the event of a new all-time high.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by Mihai_Iacob
7
XauUsd- New day, new ATH?So far, April has been the month for OANDA:XAUUSD , with the yellow metal setting a new all-time high each day. (Even on April 4th, despite a red day candle, we observed an all-time high on an intraday basis.) Even though the upward move appears overextended and a strong correction seems imminent, there are no indications suggesting we are on the brink of it at this point. From a technical standpoint, the structure remains strongly bullish, and as long as the 2330-2335 zone remains intact, even short-term charts maintain a strong bullish sentiment. In conclusion, I anticipate another all-time high, and only a drop below 2320 would hint at a potential top forming, at least for the time being. However, bulls should exercise caution with stop losses, as a correction in XAUUSD could potentially be deep and aggressive.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Mihai_Iacob
7
Eth established strong floor. Rise to 4k next?Like the entire crypto market, BITSTAMP:ETHUSD has initiated a much-needed correction since mid-March. After an initial dive to the 3k zone, Ethereum recovered and made a local high at 3.6k. Subsequently, another drop occurred, but bulls held strong at the 3.2k zone, establishing a solid floor. At the time of writing, the price is near 3.4k, and bulls appear to be in control. I anticipate a continuation to the upside, with a new test of the 4k resistance level. I will maintain my bullish stance as long as the price remains above 3.2k in terms of daily closing.
BITSTAMP:ETHUSDLong
by Mihai_Iacob
1
XAUUSD: Will NFP Shift the Tide?In my post from yesterday, I mentioned the possibility of a correction for $OANDA:XAUUSD. In a subsequent update, I emphasized that while such a correction was likely, traders should consider selling after a new spike above 2300. Indeed, the price did spike above this level once more, only to drop by 400 pips afterward, precisely to the significant support at 2266. Now, the question arises: Is the correction for Gold over? The Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report could provide some clarity on this matter. With the expectation that 200k new jobs will be added, we have two potential scenarios: 1. A NFP significantly better than expected could result in a break below the important 2266 support, in which case, the range of 2220-2225 would come into play. 2. Conversely, if the NFP meets or falls below expectations, we may see a continuation of the uptrend, pushing the price above 2300 and forming a strong support level at 2266. From a technical perspective, there's currently nothing indicating a deviation from the medium-term bullish trend and bulls seem to have established a strong support level at 2266. P.S: I'm out of the market at this moment, but, my gut feeling tells me an in line with expectation NFP and a continuation to the upside. I will update the idea after the announcement. Regards! Mihai Iacob
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Mihai_Iacob
8
Gold- Profit taking could lead to correctionIn my post from yesterday, I pondered whether the bulls still possessed the strength to drive the price to the psychological level of 2300, and indeed, they did. Following a brief intraday dip, precisely to the 2267 support level mentioned in yesterday's analysis, buyers swiftly regained control and, as anticipated, propelled the price to 2300. However, at this point, I believe the ascent has become overextended, and a correction appears imminent. From a technical standpoint, the recent upward movement has formed a rising wedge pattern (though it remains unconfirmed). This, coupled with the high likelihood of profit-taking commencing, suggests a correction is likely, potentially bringing the price down once more to the 2250 zone. Furthermore, in the event of a more aggressive correction, we may even witness the price dropping to the pattern's target of the 2220 zone. In conclusion, I am considering selling.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by Mihai_Iacob
Gold- Will it "see" 2.3k today? Yesterday, after initially rising to 2277, the price began to correct. Following an initial drop to support, bulls regained control during the US session, closing the day with yet another all-time high for $OANDA:XAUUSD. During the Asian session last night, once again, the initial drop was met with strong bids, leading to a quick price recovery. These occurrences signal significant buying power and suggest a high likelihood of an upward continuation. From a technical standpoint, as long as the price remains above yesterday's low of 2250, bulls need not worry, and the strategy of buying dips should persist. Interim support is situated at 2277, followed by the important level of 2267.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Mihai_Iacob
9