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EurJpy- Close to a support breakIn my weekend analysis about Jpy crosses I said that we should keep a close eye on these pairs because, although UsdJpy is still in a strong up trend, cross pair may have topped. In EurJpy's case, yesterday the pair had a spike up, this spike was very short-lived lived and EurJpy reversed strongly and closed the day with a huge bearish engulfing. At this moment the pair is trading exactly in support zone and looks like pressing for a break. In such an instance, considering we had a month of range and distribution, we could see down acceleration, and the medium target could be 151.50. Interim support is at 154 and this level could also represent target for shorter-term traders.
Short
by Mihai_Iacob
19
Navigating Gold's Strong Bearish Move: Is a Correction up next?As explained in my Sunday video, Gold is extremely bearish and the price could fall to 1805-1810 support. Indeed, XAU/USD started the month and the week on a bearish note and is currently trading 300 pips lower compared to Friday's closing price. Looking at the posted chart we can see that this is already the 7Th red day (not closed yet) and after the break under 1915 support, the price dropped almost without correction. Just an intraday spike on Friday. All in all, we are in a very strong bear move However, considering the magnitude of the drop and the proximity of an important support, a correction could follow. Aggressive traders could look to buy in the support zone. Keep in mind though that everyone is expecting a correction and a spike under 1800 to clear stops is not out of the question. On the much safer side, sell rallies should be the strategy.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Mihai_Iacob
5
AudUsd- Remains bearishSince mid-August, AudUsd is trading in a range. Last week the pair tried to break under support and failed. The pair reversed and tested 0.65 zone resistance once more, a level at which bears sold the pair aggressively, leaving a long-tailed Pin Bar on our chart. At the time of writing the pair is dropping once more and this time is very probable to have a genuine break of support if the pair touches this level again. In this case, down continuation to the 0.62 zone is the most probable scenario. As long as AudUsd is trading under 0.65 I'm bearish
Short
by Mihai_Iacob
20
EurChf could rise furtherSince the beginning of 2023, EurChf has been on a downward trend. However, at the end of July, the pair found support just above 0.05, and after a month of consolidation and 4 touches of this support level, EurChf reversed to the upside and is trading now at 0.9680, exactly under an important confluence resistance. Looking at the chart we can see that for a week now the pair has been pressing in this resistance and we could have an up break soon. In such an instance, EurChf could rise further and the 0.9830-0.9850 zone.
Long
by Mihai_Iacob
6
Gold- 500 pips target hit! Now what?As you know, I was bearish Gold since Tuesday and argued that, if XauUsd breaks under 1915 zone support, we could assist a 500 pips drop. The "major target for bears" was hit yesterday and now we may wonder what's next. Technically, the structure is strongly bearish, however, considering the magnitude of the recent drop, a correction to the upside is probable. Also, the fact that is Friday adds to this possibility, considering a lot of take profits. In conclusion, 1855 technical support could offer good buying opportunities for a rise and test of recently broken support at 1885. Also, the congestion from 1875 could offer resistance. Best of luck and happy trading! Mihai Iacob
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Mihai_Iacob
21
CadChf- A bottom could be in placeSince the double top back in May 2022, the CadChf pair has traded in a clear and nice downtrend. However, although the pair is still under the falling trend line, the pair hasn't made a significant new low after the May one, and for a month now it has been stuck around 0.65. A reversal could be next for this pair and, considering a target at the recent 0.68 high, a nice 1:3 risk: reward could be achieved. Keep in mind is a very slow pair!
Long
by Mihai_Iacob
13
Bearish Outlook: EurCad's Potential 500 Pip Drop AheadSince the beginning of 2023, EurCad's price has been trading above 1.4250, a level that became a very important line in the sand, with a test in January, February, and back in June, Recently, the price came back to this level and after only one day of consolidation, yesterday broke under. This is a very important break for the pair and opens the door for further losses. As we can see from the chart, yet another important break happened at the beginning of the month- The ascending trend line support- and also the price action from the past 12 months resembles an H&S. All in all, I expect a drop of around 500 pips in the coming months and a positional trader could take advantage of such a trade.
Short
by Mihai_Iacob
9
Range-bound EUR/JPY: Is Distribution in Play?A few days back I discussed UsdJpy, saying that even though there is a high divergence between FED's and BoJ's policy, at the same point the pair could reverse hard. In EurJpy's case, however, things are not exactly the same and technically, we even have strong signs of topping. Looking at the h4 posted chart we could see that for a month and a half now the pair is in a range and in fact, it looks like pressing down so it could be in fact, distribution. That being said, as long as 158.50 is intact, I looking to sell rallies in anticipation of a break under support. As for the target, 153 is a pretty reasonable one if we have a genuine break
Short
by Mihai_Iacob
2
Gold's Descent: Breaking Support and Looking AheadYesterday was not a bad day for Gold bears, with the price dropping around 150 pips, but more importantly, breaking under important confluence support around 1915. As explained in yesterday's post, this was the line in the sand and Gold under this level would bring bearish confirmation. Going further, I expect XauUsd to continue its descent and I'm looking for a drop to the first technical level at 1885. However, in the long run, 1855 is my target. That being said, sell rallies is the strategy for me with an ideal entry between 1910-1915. Keep in mind that gold is currently in a weakened state, and the broken support may not be retested. Therefore, signs of weakness above 1900 could also present good entry opportunities. Best of luck and happy trading! Mihai Iacob
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by Mihai_Iacob
14
AudUsd- Navigating its Downtrend: Where's the Bottom?Aud is very weak and the recent drop is not only on the back of USD strength... After the new failed attempt to stay above 0.68 important figure back in July, the pair started to drop hard and in this descent cleared some very important levels that should have provided support: 0.66 and 0.65 For more than a month now the pair is trading in a 150 pips range, but the break down looks imminent at this moment. Looking at the posted chart we see how strong the 0.65 ceiling is and for AUD to reverse back up would take a lot of fundamental reasons that simply are not there. In conclusion, any rallies above 0.64 should be sold and swing traders could target 0.6250.
Short
by Mihai_Iacob
9
SPX to continue down?As I explained last week, there is a high chance for SP500 to drop to important 4250-4275 zone support. On Friday the index dropped under the short-term trend line and, after consolidation on Monday and Tuesday, yesterday we had a strong drop. The overall picture is pretty bearish at this point and another 150 points drop becomes very probable. In conclusion, as long as the index stays under 4500, traders could look to sell rallies in search of a good risk: reward.
SP:SPXShort
by Mihai_Iacob
16
Bears in control: The ongoing battle for GoldIn yesterday's post, I wrote that XauUsd is in no man's land as long as the price stays between 1915 and 1930, and, although at the time of writing this is still the case, the recent price action gives us some hints for the future move. As we can see from the chart, after the low at 1885, XauUsd reversed strongly and a rise to 1950 followed. However, after the correction to 1900, the price couldn't manage to reach a new high and dropped again to the important 1915 zone. The new attempt from bulls was rejected twice in 1930 on Friday (BTW, this made me quit my long trade yesterday) and yesterday twice more. All this suggests bears took total control and this will be the case as long as the price stays under 1930. Technically, the 1910-1915 zone is confluence support, and for down acceleration, a break of this zone is needed. In such an instance I expect a drop under 1900 to 1885 for the first leg down, but, in the medium term, a new drop under 1900 could lead to a test of major support at the 1850 zone. Best of luck and happy trading! Mihai Iacob
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by Mihai_Iacob
23
EurUsd- Bears should start being carefulEurUsd has been dropping pretty much contained in a channel for more than two months now and, as expected and stated in a few past posts, is approaching the 1.05 crucial zone. Although, in the long term, my bias remains bearish for the pair, at this moment, in my opinion, bears should start being careful and a reversal is looming. Looking at the posted chart we can see that 1.05-1.0550 acted as support at the beginning of the year and again in March, and for a break under a strong catalyst is needed. With all fundamentals already priced in, I don't see a drop under this zone, and the pair could start trading in a range. That being said, in my opinion, short trades from this level are not worth the risk, and is better for traders to wait for reversal signs and trade an up correction towards 1.08. Best of luck and happy trading! Mihai Iacob
by Mihai_Iacob
9
EurAud with my 1.63 target in sightIn my 20 September post, I wrote that EurAud could correct further and eventually reach 1.63 important support zone. Indeed, after a test of the indicated resistance at that moment, the pair dropped again to new support at 1.6450-1.6470 zone. Yesterday the rally was met once again with selling power shy under 1.66 and now we are again at support. All recent price action suggests down continuation and I expect a break under 1.6450 support. In this case, my 1.63 target is the most obvious one and also the most probable.
Short
by Mihai_Iacob
7
WTI- The ideal price to buy for 100 targetThe month of September came with a very important break for WTI Oil, the rise above 85 figure, a price that kept WTI in a range since December last year. As was usually the case, after the break, the price accelerated to the upside and to the next important 92.50-93.00 zone resistance. Looking at the posted chart we can see that since July, the trend for Oil is strongly up and a continuation is to be expected. At this moment, the price is in a correction and this drop could offer traders a good opportunity to join the trend at better prices. Technically, the old congestion under 87 and above 85 (yellow square) should offer support and a good zone to buy. A reversal from this zone and back to 93 could lead to a break above the recent high and in this case, the road is clear for a test of 100 important psychological level. The structure is strongly bullish as long as the price is above the old resistance at 83
FOREXCOM:USOILLong
by Mihai_Iacob
Gold- Bigger picture for a 500 pips tradeI'm a swing trader and, in the case of XauUsd trading, I usually look for 3-400 pips, or even more, as targets. At this moment, for such a trade, things are unclear and Gold is stuck in no man's land with each direction being possible. However, looking at the bigger picture, we can see that clarification for future direction is pretty easy to spot and this could bring 500 pips profit. So let's take a look at both scenarios, with confirmation and targets. 1. Bearish scenario: Since the beginning of May, Gold has traded downwards, with a clear lower top at 1980, followed by a newly formed resistance around 1950, which was confirmed with a Pin Bar candle last week. Confirmation for the bearish scenario comes with a break under the 1915 zone, in which instance, there is a very high probability for a drop to 1885 (300 pips) but, in my opinion, such a move will lead eventually to a dive, and test of 1855 important support (600 pips) 2. Bullish scenario: In mid-August, XauUsd made a low at 1885, and a strong 600 pips leg-up followed. The drop from the falling trend line hasn't made a new low and the price reversed from 1900 both psychological and horizontal support given by June and July's lows, and this could very well be a higher low. Here we also need confirmation and this comes with a break above the 1930 zone. In conclusion, at this moment I'm out of the market and, Gold under 1915 would make me bearish and Gold above 1930 bullish. Best of luck and have a great trading week! Mihai Iacob
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Mihai_Iacob
17
GbpUsd- Any rally should be soldGbp is very weak and this is visible with all its counterparts and, in the case of USD, British Pound has lost almost 1k pips since mid-July, smashing all my down targets. Last week Cable also dropped under May's low and nothing seems to stop it. Technically, at this moment, 1.24 is resistance, but in my opinion, it will not retest (as weak as it is) That being said, rallies above 1.234 should be sold and, considering a stop above 1.24 we easily could achieve a 1:2 risk: rewards is we target the 1.2 congestion zone and psychological level. 1.18 the technical target and medium-term trader could also focus on this.
Short
by Mihai_Iacob
23
Gold- An important close for the weekIf you've been following my XauUsd analyses this week, you'll know that I'm bullish and anticipating a rise in Gold to 1980 in the medium term. While this outlook remains unchanged, recent price action this week has prompted some noteworthy observations: As depicted on the chart, Gold began the week on an optimistic note but started to decline after touching the 1950 resistance zone. Yesterday, the price also reached the lower boundary of the range, at the 1915 zone, which serves as horizontal support. As of the current moment, it's trading at 1927, roughly in the middle of this range, leaving room for various possibilities. As the title suggests, this week's closing is of great significance. If the bulls manage to regain control today and drive the price back above 1940, the likelihood of a break above 1950 becomes quite high, which would expose my 1980 target as a probable outcome. Conversely, a weekly close below 1915 or in close proximity to that level would exert downward pressure on the price. In such a scenario, we could anticipate a drop below 1900, heading towards the 1885 support level in the coming week. To sum it up, my bullish bias remains unchanged, but, as I've explained, further confirmation hinges on the price staying above 1940. Best of luck and happy trading! Mihai Iacob
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Mihai_Iacob
29