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Gold- Will FED be the trigger for new leg up?Yesterday was a very quiet day for Gold, with the price fluctuating in a tight range. With FED expected to make no move on rates, the more important is the press conference after, which could trigger a new rise for Gold. Technically, things have been unchanged since yesterday, with a high probability of a bottom in place. As explained yesterday, a clear break above the 1935 zone would expose the 1980 and 1953 recent high as interim resistance. I remain bullish as long as the 1910-1915 zone is intact.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Mihai_Iacob
1
XAUUSD Outlook 18/9/23 reversals incoming Whats up gold gang! Im back from my trip to Prague .. what a beautiful city!! Quick one for you i know you've been waiting!! Im bullish on the day currently as price is moving slowly due to fomc week and no news today Price has reacted nicely from the level there and is moving up to fill the range. Im still bearish on the HTF (structure is still in place with higher lows lower lows) so im looking for price to move up here before selling off at the reversal area marked on the chart OHLC methodology alternatively .. a strong close and retest will be nice sells there to fill the range Looking forward to getting back into it gang .. lets go!! follow along if you're not already .. its gonna be a great week your mate Tommy XAU
OANDA:XAUUSD
by tommyXAU
2
EurAud- Top in place?Recently, EurAud reached 1.7 figure, and after some consolidation in that zone, the pair started to drop. This drop stopped around 1.6650 and although we have 3 reversals from this horizontal level, EurAud has started to print lower highs on our chart. This could be an indication that more losses could come and the pair could drop under this support. A break under this level could accelerate losses toward important 1.63 support On the other hand, a break back above 1.68 would put the recent 1.7 high in focus
by Mihai_Iacob
14
Nas100 could lose supportSo far, this year has been an incredible one for Nas100, with the index rising more than 50%. However, after the mid-July top, Nas100 has started to roll back down and we already have 4 touches of support zones in only 6 weeks. As we know, the more a support or resistance is touched the weaker it becomes, and, in my opinion, we are close to a down break. A daily close under 15100 could be considered a valid break and, in this instance, correction from the top could continue with around 1k points as a target. Nas100 back above 15600 would negate this bearish scenario
PEPPERSTONE:NAS100Short
by Mihai_Iacob
5
EurUsd could resume its down moveOn 8 September I wrote that a relief rally could be next for EurUsd and this should be considered an opportunity for traders to sell rallies around resistance and join the downtrend at better prices. Indeed the pair rose and reversed exactly from under 1.0780 resistance. The recent rise is corrective in nature and formed a flag pattern and we could see a new leg down. I remain bearish under 1.08 and my target is the 1.0550 zone with interim support at the recent low.
Short
by Mihai_Iacob
21
Gold under a cluster of resistancesIn yesterday's post, I said that my bias for Gold is still bullish, however, confirmation is needed to consider a higher low in place. Yesterday, after a double touch of 1930 short-term resistance, XauUsd consolidated and stayed in the middle of the newly formed range. As we can see the the posted chart, we are still under resistance and, in fact, the price is under a very important level between 1930 and 1935, given by the falling trend line and 2 important horizontal levels. A break above this level could trigger a lot of stop losses and we could have acceleration to 1980 in such an instance. On the other hand, a break under the recent low could lead to further losses toward the 1870 low with interim support at the 1900 zone.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Mihai_Iacob
8
Gold- Two important levels for bullsAfter the recent low under 1920, Gold has started to consolidate in a 100 pips range. Although Friday's close is bearish, XauUsd recovered strongly on the Asian Session last night and is trading now towards the upper boundary of the range. A break above this level would be the first indication of reversal with a clear confirmation if Gold is breaking and close back above 1935. In such an instance we could consider the recent low as a higher low and expect continuation to the upside at 1980 resistance.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Mihai_Iacob
23
EurJpy could lose supportSince the end of February low under 140, EurJpy rose strongly, more than 2000 pips and almost touching 160 important figure. In August, the pair consolidated, and this consolidation could very well be distribution. Now the pair is trading under 157 zone support and a daily close under this support could lead to further losses. As long as the 158.70 high is intact I'm looking to sell rallies with a target at 154 support. In the medium term, however, the pair could drop even to important 151.50 support.
Short
by Mihai_Iacob
10
CadJpy could drop to support levelSince mid-July, CadJpy has been trading inside an ascending triangle with price congestion in the last 3 weeks. Ascending triangles are usually continuation patterns and considering the up trend of the pair, this could be the case also now. However, a break under the support line could lead to a steep dive to important support at 102. In my opinion, even if we have a break above the triangle's resistance, this will be a false one. In conclusion, I'm looking to sell, either after the false break (if will be the case), or after the break of the ascending trend line down break.
Short
by Mihai_Iacob
15
GbpJpy- More than 500 pips selling opportunity2023 was a very strong year for GbpJpy, with the pair rising more than 3k pips, exceeding my target of 180 as explained in both my 17th of January 2022 and 20th of April 2022 long-term analysis. Although the pair remains in an up trend, for a month now, GbpJpy has failed on 186, unable to make a new high, leaving long up-tailed weekly candles. This suggests that a top could be in place and a much-needed correction could follow. With this in mind, I will look to sell rallies for a medium-term trade with a 500 pips target. A new high would negate my outlook. My previous long-term analyses for GbpJpy:
Long
by Mihai_Iacob
13
Gold- Potential higher lowAs you know, I was bullish Gold all week and also bought around 1930. Unfortunately, my buy trade was closed with a low when XauUsd dropped under 1920 2 days ago. At this moment, I'm out with no trade running, but my bullish bias remains. However, for opening a long trade I need more confirmation and this comes with a break back above 1935, which at this moment is confluence resistance given by the falling trend line and the horizontal level. In conclusion, at this moment there is a potential higher low in place, and confirmation for this comes with a break above 1935. Also, a positive day close will give us a Morning Star candle formation on the daily chart and a week close above 1940 will give us a Pin Bar on the weekly chart. So, for now, wait and see is my approach.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Mihai_Iacob
5
EurUsd- I'm looking to sell ralliesSince mid-July, EurUsd has entered a downtrend. The confirmation for this came with a break under the one-year-long up trend line in mid-August. After the confirmation of resistance at 1.0930 at the beginning of September, the pair made a new 250 pips leg down and stopped in support. Now EurUsd is trading at 1.0715 and is consolidating. A correction to the upside could follow and this could offer bears the opportunity to sell at better prices. In conclusion, in my opinion, traders should look for selling opportunities around 1.08 for a 1.05 target. Only a break back above 1.0950 would shift my outlook to bullish
Short
by Mihai_Iacob
2
Gold has dropped to my buy zone. Now what?In yesterday's comment, I wrote that although XauUsd could drop to the 1930 zone, I will remain bullish and buy the dip, and I did. At the time of writing my trade is floating with 30 to 50 pips loss and, although I would have wanted a straight-up arrow after my buying, I'm still bullish. As we can see from the chart, after Gold dropped under 1900, a 700 pips leg up followed and after touching the falling trend line resistance started in May, began to drop again. So far, the drop from the recent top could be only a correction, and, with the price trading exactly in a confluence of supports given by the 50% Fibo and the horizontal level a reversal is probable With this in mind, I will hold my trade for now and expect reversal from this point with a clear confirmation of reversal to the upside above 1940. In this case, a new leg up is very probable and I will aim for 1980 resistance. On the other hand, a drop under this level would put a pause on my bullish scenario. Happy trading! Mihai Iacob
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Mihai_Iacob
29
EurNzd could rise to 1.9- Long term outlookEurNzd is a very volatile pair and for sure is very risky to trade it in the short term, however, if you take a look at the longer picture and ignore 100+ pips usually daily volatility, you can find pretty nice opportunities. I think this is the case right now... EurNzd has been in a bull trend for quite some time and from May to August the pair formed a nice ascending triangle which was broken at the beginning of August. A retest of the broken resistance level followed, and a quick reversal after the touch. Also, this correction from 1.8446 top is a bullish flag and once broken, would suggest continuation. This, correlated with the 1k pips target given by the triangle, could lead to a rise to 1.9. That being said, I'm bullish EurNzd in the long term and I think the pair will reach 1.9 by year's end. Happy trading! Mihai Iacob
Long
by Mihai_Iacob
2
UsdJpy- Will it test 150 again?Two weeks ago I drew attention to the 145 level that should provide support for UsdJpy. Indeed, the pair reversed twice from this level with a very strong reversal last Friday. As we clearly see from the chart, the trend is strongly bullish, and the only thing that brings some buying power for JPY is BoJ. I expect continuation to the upside and a new test of 150. However, as I just said, KEEP IN MIND A BOJ INTERVENTION AND USE STOP LOSS!!!
Long
by Mihai_Iacob
22
DXY is eyeing 105.50In my 24th of August DXY analysis, I explained why I'm bullish USD Index and suggested buy dips around 103 support. It worked like a charm and after a short dive to support, bulls returned with vengeance and drove the price back up to resistance. At this moment I expect also a break above this resistance in which instance traders could expect continuation towards the next one at 104.50. I'm looking to sell rallies for EurUsd, AudUsd, GbpUsd, and NzdUsd. My 24th August analysis:
TVC:DXYLong
by Mihai_Iacob
1
UsdCad- Break above resistance next?After the low from mid-July, UsdCad has started to reverse and after the small correction from last week, last Friday was also marked by an immense Bullish Engulfing from short-term support which led the pair into the resistance zone again. The structure from the low is strongly bullish and I believe this resistance will fall sooner rather than later. I'm very bullish UsdCad as long as 1.35 is intact and a break above the 1.3650 zone could lead to acceleration to the upside and expose the 1.3850 zone. In conclusion, my strategy is to buy dips under 1.36 in search of a good risk: reward considering the levels that I mentioned.
Long
by Mihai_Iacob
2
EurUsd could drop to 1.05 zoneIn my previous EurUsd analysis I wrote that the break of the one-year rising trend line could signal further losses for the pair and traders should keep an eye on the 1.09 zone, suggesting selling above this figure. EurUsd reversed perfectly from resistance leaving a long-tailed continuation Pin Bar on our chart suggesting bears are very strong. Going further, I expect further weakness for the pair and I'm looking for a drop to important 1.05 very important zone support in the medium term. The strategy should be sell rallies and only a daily close above the recent high would negate this bearish scenario.
Short
by Mihai_Iacob
13