Lingrid | GOLD Head and Shoulders Pattern EmergesOANDA:XAUUSD market has plunged during the London session, breaking and closing below the psychological level of 2700. Prior to this drop, the price action appeared to be forming a head and shoulders pattern, which is typically a reversal formation. Additionally, it has broken and closed below the upward trendline that has supported the price since the beginning of August. While the major trend remains bullish on the higher timeframes, I believe the market may be entering a deeper correction phase, as mentioned in my weekly forecast. With high-impact news today, we can expect heightened volatility in the NY session. I expect the market to retest the trendline and the resistance zone at 2700, followed by a bearish move towards the previous monthly low. My goal is support zone around 2615.
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Signals
DOGEUSD Its Parabolic Growth Channel targets minimum $3.500.Dogecoin (DOGEUSD) is having an excellent bullish run since our last buy signal (October 17, see chart below), hitting all targets in the process:
As the price broke above Resistance 2 as well, we now zoom out to the long-term charts again (1W time-frame) where Doge's historic trend is more clearly displayed. The underlying pattern that it may have gone unnoticed is a Parabolic Channel, which we call Doge's Parabolic Growth Channel (PGC).
This Channel encompasses all of Doge's Cycles and only broke once (to the upside) peaking during last Cycle's mania (April 2021). Furthermore, this week the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) will complete a cross above the 1W MA200 (orange trend-line), forming the 1W Golden Cross, technically a very bullish pattern.
The last time this was formed was on the week of December 28 2020, right when the Bull Cycle's Parabolic Rally (green Rectangle) started. That reached the 1.618 Fibonacci extension and as mentioned rose even further, breaking above the PGC. The 1.618 Fib is of high importance as this is where the January 01 2018 High of the first Cycle was priced.
At the same time, the 1W RSI is already on a Bullish Cross since the week of October 07 2024, which is exactly what happened again during the previous two Cycles, where it preceded the Golden Cross of the price.
As a result, we believe that Doge has started its Parabolic Rally, the final and most aggressive part of the Bull Cycle, and based on the previous 1.618 Fib peaks, we are expecting at least a $3.500 High.
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Lingrid | EURNZD channel BREAKOUT. Short from the RESISTANCEFX:EURNZD broke and closed below the upward channel. The price consolidated above the psychological level of 1.81000 but failed to continue its upward movement, instead shifting downwards and creating an impulse leg. On the weekly timeframe, the price remains within a consolidation zone and has recently bounced off the top of this zone, moving downward. I anticipate that the market to form a pullback, reject the channel border, and then move downward towards the bottom of the consolidation zone. My goal is support zone around 1.77700
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Lingrid | GBPAUD pullback Towards BEARISH ContinuationThe price perfectly fulfilled my previous idea. It hit the target zone. FX:GBPAUD is currently making lower lows, which indicates a prevailing bearish momentum. The recent price action shows that it broke and closed below the consolidation zone, further reinforcing the bearish outlook. Additionally, the price tested the resistance zone twice before breaking through, highlighting the significance of that level. Therefore, I expect the market to pull back toward the resistance zone before continuing its bearish movement. This pullback could provide a good opportunity for sellers to re-enter positions, anticipating further downward pressure. My goal is support zone around 1.94295
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NZDUSD: Bearish Movement From Resistance 🇳🇿🇺🇸
This morning, I shorted NZDUSD.
I was waiting for a bearish signal after a test of an intraday/daily horizontal resistance.
A double top pattern and a breakout of its neckline gave a strong signal to sell.
We can expect a bearish movement now.
Goals: 0.5982 / 0.5962
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SMCI is -85% a buy opportunity while accounting issues continue?Super Micro Computer Inc (SMCI) still haven't found a new Auditing Firm, after it was announced last week that Ernst & Young left them raising governance and management communication issues. Yesterday's Low represents almost a -85% drop from the March $122.50 All Time High (ATH). So is this level a bargain and a buy opportunity for long-term investors?
Well while the company hasn't filed the necessary paperwork to meet the regulatory requirements to remain listed on the stock market and no auditor is hired to confirm and signs their reports, investor confidence will remain low (to say the least). It appears that SMCI has turned into the new short favorite for Hedge Funds and that's never ideal.
Technically though, the stock hit yesterday its 1W MA200 (orange trend-line) for the first time in 4 years (since October 26 2020)! With that contact, the price initiated a strong multi-week rally that made a new High. This is a textbook buy for long-term investors. Of course it is all about risk and money management and since regulatory risks remain, the capital invested best to be less than usual.
Another technical factor supporting a buy on these levels is the 1W RSI, which got oversold (<30.00) for the first time since the weeks of March 16 2020 (almost 31.50) and October 01 2018 (U.S. - China trade wars). Both these times, SMCI kick-started enormous rallies.
The October 01 2018 bottom in particular is the starting date of the Fibonacci Channel Up on this chart, which encompasses SMCI's logarithmic growth these past years. As a result the company has only experienced 3 major long-term buy opportunities with the most recent 4 years ago.
At the same time, yesterday's Low didn't only make contact with Fibonacci 1.0 of the Channel Up (i.e. the initial top until the price turned parabolic and broke-out) but also almost touched the 0.382 horizontal Fib level, starting all the way from October 2018.
It is obvious that purely from a technical perspective such levels are as good as a buy can get. Proper risk management and an exit strategy are needed (in case of delisting) and long-term investors can be patient and take their time to target the $122.50 High again for enormous gains (could take even 1 year).
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AUDUSD Will Go Up! Long!
Please, check our technical outlook for AUDUSD.
Time Frame: 4h
Current Trend: Bullish
Sentiment: Oversold (based on 7-period RSI)
Forecast: Bullish
The market is testing a major horizontal structure 0.664.
Taking into consideration the structure & trend analysis, I believe that the market will reach 0.668 level soon.
P.S
The term oversold refers to a condition where an asset has traded lower in price and has the potential for a price bounce.
Overbought refers to market scenarios where the instrument is traded considerably higher than its fair value. Overvaluation is caused by market sentiments when there is positive news.
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USDJPY rises sharply, supported by rising channel !USDJPY is showing significant upside momentum today, trading firmly within a well-defined bullish channel on the 4-hour chart and currently trading at 153.89. This bullish move reflects a stronger USD influence, fueled by recent events surrounding former President Donald Trump.
Despite the steady push from technical factors, USDJPY may face resistance near 154.00. This area may act as a short-term hurdle, as the pair’s upside momentum may slow down once it reaches this level. A minor pullback within the channel is expected, which would help confirm the ongoing trend. This pullback could take USDJPY down to the support zone around 153.000, testing both the 34 and 89 EMAs for further strength.
If the pullback is successful, USDJPY is expected to continue its upward trajectory, heading towards the upper boundary of the channel. The next important resistance zone lies above 156,000, which aligns with the top of the channel, representing a crucial level to watch for further gains.
Calling All Pro Traders!This is the action you’ve been waiting for as it dances around critical levels!
XAUUSD Outlook:Currently in a tight range between 2692 and 2700 – a major battle unfolding here! Will it break out soon?
Keep those eyes peeled! Downside Alert:If XAUUSD slips below this key range, it could trigger a swift move lower! Targets on the radar: 2680 and 2667.
Be ready to act! Upside Potential: On the flip side, if we see a breakout above this zone, it could set the stage for an explosive rally! Next targets in sight: 2704 and 2708.
Is the bulls' momentum building? Let’s Chat! What’s your take? Will we see a breakout or a reversal? Drop your thoughts below! Together, we’re navigating one of the most exciting moments in the market! Stay sharp, stay strategic – let’s go for the win!
Is Gold's correction over?In my recent analyses, I warned that a significant correction in Gold prices was inevitable.
True to this prediction, the election of Donald Trump triggered a sharp 1,000-pip drop in Gold's value.
However, yesterday, the market rebounded strongly, recovering 700 pips from that initial decline.
The big question now is whether this correction has run its course.
In my view, we may have reached a bottom, and Gold could be poised to resume its overall uptrend.
I’m currently looking for buying opportunities on dips.
GOLD established a falling structure after a sharp declineOANDA:XAUUSD Spot delivery is basically stable after yesterday's plunge. The current gold price is about 2,660 USD/ounce. Previously on Wednesday (November 6), after Trump was elected President of the United States, investors rushed to buy US Dollar, OANDA:XAUUSD plummeted to its lowest level in 3 weeks.
As sent to readers in many articles about the election of Trump, a shock decline in gold is inevitable because Trump's "steering wheel" will support the Dollar from general economic policies.
Trump's victory will boost the dollar as he is expected to propose new tariffs that could cause a spike in inflation and cause the Federal Reserve to pause its easing cycle.
Fed decision upcoming
After cutting interest rates by 50 basis points in September, the market expects the Fed to cut interest rates by 25 basis points this time.
The US economic calendar today (Thursday) will focus on the Federal Reserve's monetary policy decision. The Fed is expected to reduce borrowing costs by 25 basis points to a range of 4.50%-4.75%.
Trump and the Fed
Trump's economic policy proposes imposing taxes, increasing the fiscal deficit, and reducing taxes. His economic advice conflicts with the Fed's anti-inflation policy. Therefore, the Fed will be forced to take a very cautious approach when loosening monetary policy.
The risk of rising inflation after Trump introduced new taxes could slow the pace of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve. This is very important because Trump and the Fed are becoming opposing, it is likely that Trump will destroy all previous efforts of the Fed to curb inflation.
For more than 70 years, the Federal Reserve has operated as an independent government agency in the United States, but this tradition may soon be overturned. After declaring victory on Wednesday (November 6), Donald Trump is preparing to talk about "interest rates" after taking office in January 2025, insisting his intuition is better than the Chairman of the Reserve Federal Powell.
For more than 70 years, the US central bank has operated as an independent government agency. When officials meet to decide interest rates, they will not need to consult with the president and other elected officials. That's because, as the former Fed chairman famously said, “The job of the central bank is to get rid of the drinking bowl just as the party is getting started.”
In other words, they have to make unpopular decisions that ultimately seek to bring long-term benefits to the economy. However, once President-elect Trump returns to the White House, the independence the Fed has maintained for many years could be compromised.
Trump's statement was posted on CNN: “I think the president should at least have a say. I feel very strongly,” Trump said about the Fed's interest rate decision at a press conference in August.
Trump added: “I make a lot of money, I'm very successful and I think in many situations I have better abilities than the people at the Fed or the president.”
Analysis of technical prospects for OANDA:XAUUSD
After yesterday's strong price drop, gold has all the technical conditions to decrease in price through the price channel. The fact that gold was sold below the price channel and the 21-day moving average (EMA21) caused the bullish price structure to be completely broken.
Currently, gold is recovering slightly after receiving support from the 0.618% Fibonacci retracement level, and once this level is further broken below, gold tends to continue to decline with a subsequent target level of around 2,600 USD around the 0.786% Fibonacci retracement area.
On the other hand, the Relative Strength Index continues to point downward after breaking the 50 level, which should be considered a negative signal for gold as the RSI's next target is 25. Showing that the downward momentum remains quite wide in the front.
In the near future, technically, gold has the potential to decrease in price with the price channel being the short-term trend.
As long as gold remains in the price channel and below the EMA21 level, the bearish outlook will still be prioritized, and the notable points will be listed as follows.
Support: 2,640 – 2,645USD
Resistance: 2,668 – 2,684 – 2,697USD
SELL XAUUSD PRICE 2708 - 2706⚡️
↠↠ Stoploss 2711
→Take Profit 1 2701
↨
→Take Profit 2 2696
BUY XAUUSD PRICE 2637 - 2639⚡️
↠↠ Stoploss 2633
→Take Profit 1 2644
↨
→Take Profit 2 2649
DXY topped on the 1-year Channel Down. Strong downside potentialThe U.S. Dollar index (DXY) has been trading within a Channel Down pattern since the October 03 2023 High (13 months) and yesterday got the first red 1D candle after almost touching the pattern's top (Lower Highs trend-line) the day before.
As the 1D RSI has dropped significantly after being overbought 2 weeks ago, this is a very similar top formation to the Highs of April 16 2024 and October 03 2023. As a result this is the earliest possible sell entry we can take to target long-term the new Lower Low of the Channel Down.
The previous two Bearish Legs priced their Lows after roughly a -6.00% to -6.25% decline, just above the 1.1 Fibonacci extension. As a result, our Target is 99.800.
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EURUSD has a strong selling pressure - clear signs of discountThe EUR/USD pair dropped to nearly 1,0780 in the context of the demand for US dollars increased again on Friday during Asian trading hours. In addition, the proposal to increase tax by Donald Trump put pressure on Euro compared to the US dollar.
Ben personally predicts that, without unexpected breakthroughs, EURUSD will likely turn to an important support area of 1,0720 - 1,0740. In addition, technical indicators are not very satisfactory when the EMA 34 and EMA 89 are creating additional resistance right above the current price, increasing the pressure to decrease for Eurusd. With this situation, the market is more likely to have an EURUSD will have a deeper decline.
COINBASE Ahead of an enormous bullish break-out.In recent times, we have focused on Coinbase's (COIN) long-term potential on higher time-frames (1W) like the one below (September 09) where we gave a great buy signal on the absolute bottom of the 2-year Channel Up:
On today's analysis we look into the 1D time-frame as Coinbase is about to test its longest 2024 Resistance, the Lower Highs trend-line that started after the March 25 2024 High. With added bullish pressure by the 1D MACD Bullish Cross formed 2 days ago, if this Lower Highs trend-line breaks, we can technically have a very aggressive rally.
The September 06 bottom can be seen as the start of the Head of an Inverse Head and Shoulders (IH&S) pattern, which has a standard Target on the 2.0 Fibonacci extension. That is just above $340. As a result, if the Lower Highs trend-line breaks, you can take additional buys to target $340.
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Lingrid | SHIBUSDT possible Upward SurgeThe price perfectly fulfilled my last idea. It hit target zone. BINANCE:SHIBUSDT recently formed a double bottom, followed by a upward move. It has now created an equal high, suggesting that the market is entering a consolidation phase. However, I believe the market may be gearing up for an upward surge, as the price is currently in an accumulation phase. On the daily timeframe, we observe strong bullish impulse moves accompanied by gradual pullbacks, indicating persistent buying pressure. I anticipate that the market to target liquidity below the previous daily low before retesting the area above the equal high. My goal is resistance zone around 0.00002050
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AAVEUSD at the top of the Channel Up. Going parabolic if broken.Aave (AAVEUSD) has been trading within a Channel Up pattern since Triple Bottom formation on the Bear Cycle Support Zone. This Channel has technically served as the Accumulation Phase of the Bull Cycle, a prolonged process that ends when such patterns break.
Technically the price is the closest to its top (Higher Highs trend-line) since the week of March 11 2024 and the fact that the 1W MACD has invalidated a Bearish Cross this high with the incredible rise since yesterday, is an early sign that the time to break above the Channel Up has come.
If it does, be ready to buy as the minimum technical Target would be the $670.00 ATH.
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DXY: Strong Bullish Bias! Buy!
Welcome to our daily DXY prediction!
We made our analysis today using SMC and ICT trading theories, which, combined with our trading experience all point to the upside. So we are locally bullish biased and the target for the long trade is 104.767
Wish you good luck in trading to you all!
WTI OIL targeting the 1D MA200 at $76.50WTI Oil (USOIL) managed to close yesterday above its 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) despite breaking below it intraday. Even if we see a pull-back like September 25-26, Oil is more likely to test the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) as since the August 12 High, the market is practically ranging between the Support and Resistance Zones. Our Target is $76.50.
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FOMC and Powell support GOLD, bearish outlook still prevailsOANDA:XAUUSD Spot trading rose nearly 2% yesterday when the Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 25 basis points as market predicted, causing the US Dollar to plunge and giving gold a boost.
The Federal Reserve cut its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points on Thursday, while policymakers noted a "broad deterioration" in the job market. Officials voted unanimously to lower the federal funds rate to a range of 4.5%-4.75%. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said Trump's presidential election victory will not directly affect monetary policy.
Federal Reserve interest rate cuts have put pressure on the US dollar and bond yields, while boosting the investment appeal of non-yielding gold.
FOMC content
In their monetary policy statement, officials acknowledged the economy is growing steadily despite slowing labor market conditions. They admitted inflation was close to the Fed's 2% target but still remained slightly high.
Fed policymakers also noted that the risks to achieving their dual mandates were “roughly balanced” but acknowledged uncertainty about the economic outlook.
The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) statement said: "The Committee believes that the risks to achieving its employment and inflation goals are balanced and that there is uncertainty about the economic outlook. The Committee concerned about the risk of achieving his dual mandate."
While policymakers noted “progress” in achieving the inflation target, they neglected to mention “becoming more confident that inflation can move steadily toward 2 percent.” sustainable”.
“Labour market conditions have generally eased since the beginning of this year, with the unemployment rate rising but remaining low,” the Fed statement said.
Powell said the election results would not affect decision-making in the short term and that there was flexibility in future policy direction.
At his post-FOMC press conference, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell avoided giving specific guidance on the future direction of interest rates, leaving room for flexibility at the December meeting and beyond. He emphasized that because the economy is strong, the Fed can take its time lowering interest rates. He acknowledged that even after Thursday's rate cut, policy remains restrained as officials aim to return interest rates to neutral levels.
Regarding the pace of interest rate cuts, Powell said if the labor market weakens or slows as it approaches neutrality, the Fed could accelerate the pace of interest rate cuts. However, he clarified that no final decision has been made yet.
Powell also said that in the short term, the presidential election results will not directly affect monetary policy.
General assessment
The Fed's 25 basis point cut boosted gold prices, on the other hand, Powell made very clear statements about the possibility and prospect of cutting interest rates and this is not beneficial for the US Dollar.
A very basic knowledge is that the US Dollar is controlled by the Fed and not under the power of the US President. Therefore, even in the event that Trump is elected and boosts the US Dollar, it will still be restrained by the policy of cutting interest rates. Only if Trump can completely eliminate the Fed will the US Dollar have nothing to show for it. prevent. Of course, this is without precedent, nor has any President been able to do this.
Analysis of technical prospects for OANDA:XAUUSD
Although gold has recovered strongly from the 0.618% Fibonacci level confluence with the lower edge of the channel, it is still in a downtrend with the price channel as the short-term trend.
On the other hand, gold's upward momentum has also been limited by the EMA21 level, and it still has enough bearish conditions when the Relative Strength Index is also showing signs of folding down from the 50 level area.
If gold falls below the 0.382% Fibonacci retracement level, it will have the potential to fall a bit further with a short-term target of around 2,684 USD rather than 2,668 USD.
However, in case gold moves above the EMA21 level it will tend to increase further to test the 0.236% Fibonacci level. Therefore, for open selling positions should be protected above EMA21 quite "strictly."
During the day, gold still has a bearish technical outlook with notable points listed as follows.
Support: 2,684 – 2,668USD
Resistance: 2,700 – 2,710USD
SELL XAUUSD PRICE 2736 - 2734⚡️
↠↠ Stoploss 2740
→Take Profit 1 2729
↨
→Take Profit 2 2724
BUY XAUUSD PRICE 2676 - 2678⚡️
↠↠ Stoploss 2672
→Take Profit 1 2683
↨
→Take Profit 2 2688