BITCOIN The March effect is about to kick-inTrump's inauguration took place yesterday and that's perhaps the one event that the markets have been waiting for to kick-start the year without distractions. On today's analysis we go through every January of Bitcoin's (BTCUSD) final year of its Bull Cycles and present to you what we will call from now on 'The March effect'.
As you can see, the price action coming to those January months is fairly similar between that last 4 Cycles. The price finds Support below its 1D MA100 (green trend-line), then breaks above it and with that as its new Support, it rises towards January where it starts the first Consolidation Phase. After a new Low near (or on) the 1D MA100, the market resumes the uptrend and rise towards March where again it starts a second Consolidation Phase.
As a result, January - March during the Bull Cycle's final year deliver this incredibly bullish sequence and we can claim that the phenomenon has already started as January 13 2025 was a close enough test for the 1D MA100. We are expecting a March peak around $130k.
So do you think we will see the 'March effect' unfold once more and if yes is $130k a plausible target in your opinion? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
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Signals
Lingrid | GOLD trend CONTINUATION TradeOANDA:XAUUSD market has moved higher and nearly reached the target level. However, the price is pulling back and has created a false breakout of the previous resistance zone on the 1H timeframe. Overall, the market is creating higher highs and higher lows, leading me to believe that it will continue pushing to higher levels. That said, on the 4H timeframe, we are seeing a bearish divergence that could indicate a potential sell-off or deeper pullback towards 2700. Despite this, given the prevailing bullish momentum, I expect the price to move slightly higher towards the 2750 area. My goal is resistance zone around 2744
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Gold- On its way to new ATH?In my post yesterday, I mentioned that Gold is trading within an ascending channel, which should give bulls added confidence. The suggested strategy remaining to buy on dips.
During Monday's session, price action was relatively quiet, with the market ranging.
However, there were signs of buying pressure, with the price steadily pressing against the resistance line.
Overnight, Gold finally broke above the confluence resistance zone between 2715 and 2720, and at the time of writing, it is trading at 2728, suggesting a genuine break.
Looking ahead, I expect this momentum to continue.
Key levels for bulls to watch are 2750 and 2765. Also, a successful break above 2765 could pave the way for a new all-time high and only a drop below 2690 would put a pause in this bullish scenario.
For now, the strategy remains to buy on dips.
Lingrid | GOLD Weekly Price OutlookOANDA:XAUUSD market had three bullish weeks in a row, eventually reaching a December high. However, the lack of a strong reaction indicates that we did not have the typical “bulls take the stairs, bears jump out of window” scenario from this level. The market tested the resistance zone around 2710-2720 and made a small pullback, and there is a possibility that it could break above this level on a fourth approach to this area.
The upcoming week coinciding with the US Presidential Inauguration is expected to bring uncertainty and perhaps potential sluggishness to the market. The market has broken above its descending channel, but price remains within the November range. On the daily timeframe, price closed above a triangle pattern, which is generally considered a trend continuation signal. If this trend continues, price could retest the November high or even last year's high. Conversely, if price returns to the channel, it could move towards the 2620 level, which we have already seen twice. Given these factors, next week could be either intriguing or boring.
Traders, if you liked this idea or if you have your own opinion about it, write in the comments. I will be glad 👩💻
Lingrid | EURUSD potential BULLISH TRADE from the SUPPORT zoneFX:EURUSD market made an upward impulse during the London session, as the TVC:DXY dropped and created a significant gap. On the daily timeframe, the price formed a strong bullish candle, moving above last week's high. It also pushed higher above the swap zone around 1.03400. Looking left, we can see that the price has respected this level multiple times and there is chance that price will rebound from this zone again. I anticipate a bounce off this support level if we see a rejection. My goal is resistance zone around 1.04085
Traders, if you liked this idea or if you have your own opinion about it, write in the comments. I will be glad 👩💻
Gold- Where to?Since the beginning of the year, XAU/USD has been trading in a well-defined ascending channel, which typically indicates continuation.
However, last week the price faced a strong ceiling at the old resistance around 2720, the level from which gold reversed sharply twice at the end of 2024.
At the time of writing, the price is 2707, and although I am bullish for the next period, I am currently out of the market, waiting for more confirmation.
Lingrid | BITCOIN the Dawn of a NEW Bull Run?BINANCE:BTCUSDT market has moved above its all-time high and is breaking through the channel, making higher highs in the process. After spending more than two months moving sideways, I believe the market is poised for a surge. The price is already displaying bullish momentum, which suggests that this week could mark the beginning of a bull run.I anticipate that the market to mirror the conditions we saw in January 2024, which also initiated a bull run. My goal is resistance zone around 115000
Traders, if you liked this idea or if you have your own opinion about it, write in the comments. I will be glad 👩💻
GBPJPY Is Bearish! Short!
Please, check our technical outlook for GBPJPY.
Time Frame: 2h
Current Trend: Bearish
Sentiment: Overbought (based on 7-period RSI)
Forecast: Bearish
The market is testing a major horizontal structure 191.076.
Taking into consideration the structure & trend analysis, I believe that the market will reach 189.587 level soon.
P.S
The term oversold refers to a condition where an asset has traded lower in price and has the potential for a price bounce.
Overbought refers to market scenarios where the instrument is traded considerably higher than its fair value. Overvaluation is caused by market sentiments when there is positive news.
Like and subscribe and comment my ideas if you enjoy them!
S&P500 smashed every Resistance on its way to 6350.The S&P500 index (SPX) hit and rebounded today on the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line), following last week's break-out. This is the confirmed start of the technical Bullish Leg of the 6-month Channel Up along with the 1D MACD Bullish Cross.
Having made a Higher Low on the 1D MA100 (green trend-line) last Monday (January 13), we are expecting the standard 1.786 Fibonacci extension as the next Higher High of the pattern. That gives us a 6350 Target.
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Finding Balance: Managing GREED in TradingIs greed helping or hurting your trading? While closing trades too quickly for small profits isn't ideal, neither is holding positions too long hoping for bigger gains. Let's explore how to find the right balance between healthy ambition and destructive greed.
📍 Understanding Healthy vs. Unhealthy Greed
Some greed can be good - it drives us to achieve goals and maintain optimism. But when it becomes an obsession, problems start. Professional traders manage their emotions well, while beginners often struggle as early successes fuel excitement and a dangerous focus on profits at any cost.
📍 Warning Signs of Unhealthy Trading Behavior
When trading turns unhealthy, you might notice these patterns:
🔹 Ignoring proven rules because you trust your "gut feelings" more than sound strategy. Your confidence leads you to dismiss common sense in pursuit of profits.
🔹 Expecting every trade to be profitable . While optimism helps, believing you'll win just because you want money is dangerous thinking.
🔹 Living with constant stress. You can't step away from price charts, scrutinizing every move and experiencing emotional highs and lows with each trade.
🔹 Chasing profits while skipping analysis. You focus only on results without learning from each trade, leading to more frequent losses over time.
📍 Dangerous Trading Habits to Avoid
⚫️ Using maximum leverage, thinking bigger trades mean bigger profits. This often leads to heavy losses when markets move sharply against you.
⚫️ Moving stop-losses and take-profit levels mid-trade. Whether hoping to avoid losses or catch more gains, this usually results in worse outcomes and added stress.
⚫️ Following the Martingale strategy - doubling position sizes after losses or wins. This approach typically leads to losing your account quickly.
📍 Practical Steps to Control Greed
1. Start with real money, but small amounts. Demo accounts can create false confidence since there's no real risk.
2. Set clear, achievable goals. For day trading (H1-H4 timeframes), aim for about 20 pips per trade. Scalpers should be satisfied with just a few pips.
3. Create and follow a detailed trading plan. Example: Take half profits at your target, use trailing stops to protect remaining gains.
4. Practice smart risk management. Decide your maximum risk per trade and stick to it - don't adjust stops once set.
5. Keep learning and practicing. With better market understanding, you'll make fewer emotional decisions. A realistic monthly return might be 2% - treat anything above as a bonus.
6. Connect with other traders. Share experiences to manage stress and gain perspective on what's normal in professional trading.
7. Stay skeptical and analytical. When excitement runs high, slow down. Check multiple information sources and grow your trading size gradually while continuing to develop your skills.
📍 Conclusion
Successful trading is about steady progress, not quick riches. Growth should happen naturally alongside your developing trading skills, without sacrificing other aspects of your life.
Traders, If you liked this educational post🎓, give it a boost 🚀 and drop a comment 📣
#DOT. THE BEST FOR ALTSEASON! REVIEW FROM 21.01.2025BINANCE:DOTUSDT
#DOT 1D
Hey lovelies! 🌸
Surprisingly, DOT is also a strong candidate for an ETF.
Can you believe it? DOT has been in accumulation for 1,000 days! Just take a moment to think about that. 💎
Entry Range
The range of $6.372 - $4.819 is a fantastic spot entry zone for this asset.
With a market cap of SEED_TVCODER77_ETHBTCDATA:10B , this is only the beginning. I fully expect DOT’s market cap to reach $50-100B during the bull run. 🚀
My Approach
The chart is impressive, and the potential is immense. I’ll be investing in DOT gradually, taking my time and building my position within the entry range (marked on the chart).
As for targets, look to the Fibonacci levels for guidance – they’re all laid out on the chart.
Your Choice
As always, DYOR (Do Your Own Research) and trade wisely! 💖
Hugs,
Your crypto girl
COSTCO New uptrend about to begin.Costco (COST) gave us the most optimal buy signal on our previous analysis (October 07 2024, see chart below) right at the bottom of the Channel Up, and easily hit our 1000 Target:
Yet again, we are ahead of a strong bullish break-out and the only Resistance level that remains is the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line). The 1D RSI has already given a buy signal right on its oversold barrier (30.00) on January 02 2025.
Once the 1D MA50 breaks, we will have a confirmed break-out buy signal. The previous tree Bullish Legs have been of at least +16.08%, so our new Target as of today is 1045.
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RUSSELL 2000 One last Resistance remains before mega rally.Russell 2000 (RUT) gave us an excellent buy signal on our last analysis (October 22 2024, see chart below) exactly on the 1D MA50 and within 5 weeks it hit our 2465 Target:
The price almost immediately pulled back, showing the efficiency of our Target placement and the pattern that has now prevailed is the Channel Up that started more than a year ago (October 27 2023).
The recent Higher Low of this pattern was exactly on the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line), the pattern's bottom. The 1D RSI showcased a Bullish Divergence (Higher Lows) against the price's Lower Lows as an early buy signal, which was confirmed on the January 14 2024 1D MACD Bullish Cross. As you can see, all Bullish Crosses below a 0.0 MACD, have been technical buy signals.
What remains is for the price to break above the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line), which is the level that is causing a rejection today. Once recovered, we expect the index to complete at least a +21% rally from the recent bottom, the minimum of the previous 3 rallies, and target 2600.
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DXY- Start of correction?In my previous analysis of the DXY, I mentioned that the index might begin a correction after more than three months of upward movement and a 10% increase.
Yesterday, the market opened with a downside gap and broke below the rising trendline that had been supporting the price since the 100 mark. This suggests that 110 could now serve as a local top. As long as the price remains below this level, shorting the USD currency could present a viable trading opportunity.
I am currently looking for buying opportunities in currency pairs such as EUR/USD, GBP/USD, AUD/USD, and NZD/USD.
Lingrid | EURUSD complex PULLBACK. Short OpportunityFX:EURUSD has been moving sideways for the past couple of days. The market is pulling back toward the resistance zone after a fake breakout of the support level. It appears that the price is forming an ABCD pullback, as it has not moved significantly lower than the resistance zone at 1.03500. Additionally, a doji candle has formed on the weekly timeframe, which suggests indecision. I believe the market may move above the previous weekly high to take liquidity. I expect that this pullback will be followed by a continuation of the downward trend. My goal is support zone around 1.02520
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NzdUsd could rise to 0.58 (swing trade)The final quarter of 2024 was particularly challenging for the NZD, with the currency declining by 800 pips from its peak to its lowest point. More significantly, this drop represents a devaluation of over 12%, which is substantial for a major currency pair.
As 2025 begins, however, OANDA:NZDUSD has entered a consolidation phase, holding above the critical support zone near 0.5550. This level is noteworthy and deserves attention as a potential turning point.
While the overall trend remains bearish, a rebound from this key support area is likely. If this occurs, the pair could move higher toward the 0.58 resistance level.
In summary, dips near the support zone present buying opportunities with a favorable risk-to-reward ratio, targeting a return of at least 1:2.
Lingrid | BNBUSDT identifying OPPORTUNITY in a Sideways TrendBINANCE:BNBUSDT is currently moving sideways following the significant surge in December. The price is oscillating between the levels of 730 and 640. On the weekly timeframe, the consistent formation of doji candles suggests indecision in the market. The price action appears to be forming a potential bullish flag pattern, which typically indicates a continuation of the upward trend. Looking left, we can observe that the price has formed a range zone at the support level and has bounced off this area multiple times, reinforcing it as key support zone. Given the current narrowing price action, it seems likely that the market will experience a squeeze, which could ultimately lead to a breakout. My goal is resistance zoen around 750
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EURAUD The 1D MA50 is the sell signalThe EURAUD pair had been trading within a Channel Down pattern since the August 17 2023 High. At the moment it has made a direct Lower High (December 27 2024) at the top of the pattern but the rejection is contained above the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line).
That is the sell confirmation level as whenever this broke after a Lower High, we had a bearish signal. As a result, wait for a bearish break-out and then sell, targeting the 1W MA300 (red trend-line) at 1.61000.
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GOLD skyrocketed, Trump's influence provided strong supportIn the Asian market today, Tuesday, January 21, influenced by Trump's tariff comments that stimulated risk aversion, OANDA:XAUUSD suddenly jumped to 17 USD in the short term and are currently approaching the mark of 2,725 USD/ounce.
Trump was sworn in as the 47th President of the United States in the Oval Office of the Capitol.
US President Trump recently announced that he plans to impose tariffs on Mexico and Canada no later than February 1, possibly up to 25%, and reiterated his view that the two neighboring countries America's neighbors are allowing illegal immigration and drugs into the United States.
Complaining about fentanyl and migrants crossing the northern U.S. border, Trump called Canada a “very bad abuser” and said the target date for tariffs would be “I think February 1st. "
Trump made the remarks shortly after returning to the Oval Office to sign a series of executive orders. The executive orders cover everything from regulation to energy to immigration.
This is an early sign that Trump has increasingly focused on trade since taking office. These comments have stimulated risk aversion in the market to increase rapidly. Not only did gold strengthen, but the safe-haven Dollar also increased strongly. Impacting the market, we can see that recently both gold and Dollar, which have a negative correlation, have increased in price together.
Trump's sweeping trade tariffs are expected to spur further inflation and spark a trade war, which could increase gold's safe-haven appeal.
Analysis of technical prospects for OANDA:XAUUSD
On the daily chart, gold has approached the $2,725 level that was the initial upside target noticed by readers in the previous issue, followed by the $2,730 price point of the 0.236% Fibonacci retracement.
Technically, gold still has all the conditions for price increases with the trend being noticed by the green price channel, main support from EMA21 and the nearest support is the 0.382% Fibonacci retracement level.
Meanwhile, the uptrend of the Relative Strength Index also creates an uptrend and is still quite far from the overbought level, showing that there is still wide room for price growth ahead.
Moving forward, the technical outlook for gold remains bullish and notable levels are listed below.
Support: 2,700 – 2,693USD
Resistance: 2,725 – 2,730 – 2,750USD
SELL XAUUSD PRICE 2746 - 2744⚡️
↠↠ Stoploss 2750
→Take Profit 1 2739
↨
→Take Profit 2 2734
BUY XAUUSD PRICE 2684 - 2686⚡️
↠↠ Stoploss 2680
→Take Profit 1 2691
↨
→Take Profit 2 2696
Gold → A Bear Wedge Pattern is forming. What's Next?OANDA:XAUUSD consolidating above the 2715 level, while simultaneously a bearish wedge pattern maintains the recent upward trend. Theoretically, the price will break the support level, creating a breakout at the 2715 zone.
On the H1 timeframe, the support zone of 2715-2715 has formed and price is moving towards reacting at this support area. If buyers maintain this zone, price may retest the upper boundary of the rising channel or the important psychological level of 2748 before further decline. However, a breakthrough below this level will lead to an earlier price drop. Additionally, the USD is also consolidating above the support zone, creating a corresponding reaction in the gold market.
Resistance levels: 2738, 2748, 2758
Support levels: 2716, 2703, 2693
I expect a correction following the false break of the 2715 level. Price consolidation below this level will lead to a deeper decline.
GBPCAD - Bullish Setup at Key Support ZoneThe GBPCAD pair is currently approaching a significant demand zone that has historically acted as a strong support level, leading to bullish reversals. The recent downward momentum brings the pair into this area, where buyers might regain control.
A bullish confirmation, such as a strong rejection pattern, bullish engulfing candles, or long lower wicks, would indicate a potential upward move. If buyers step in, the price may head toward the 1.77424 level.
This setup suggests a possible short-term rebound in line with the broader market structure.