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EURJPY Will Grow! Buy! Please, check our technical outlook for EURJPY. Time Frame: 9h Current Trend: Bullish Sentiment: Oversold (based on 7-period RSI) Forecast: Bullish The market is on a crucial zone of demand 165.018. The oversold market condition in a combination with key structure gives us a relatively strong bullish signal with goal 167.407 level. P.S Overbought describes a period of time where there has been a significant and consistent upward move in price over a period of time without much pullback. Like and subscribe and comment my ideas if you enjoy them!
Long
by SignalProvider
1
XAUUSD See when to sell and when to buy.Gold (XAUUSD) has been trading within a Channel Up since the August 05 Low and since last Tuesday, the price action has turned sideways to the point that the 1D RSI is breaking today below its MA trend-line. This is a break-out consistent with the start of the previous two Accumulation Phases of the pattern, but in order to confirm this we need the RSI to close the day below it. At the same time the price remains bullish as long as it is being supported by the 4H MA50 (red trend-line). If both break, it would mean that the new Higher High of the Channel Up is in and that the best action would be to buy near the bottom again (2,700). If on the other hand the 4H MA50 holds and the 1D RSI closes above its MA, we will stay bullish, targeting 2800 and then reversing to a sell towards the bottom of the Channel Up. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
FX_IDC:XAUUSD
by TradingShot
BITCOIN All indicators aligned for an incredible 12-month rallyBitcoin (BTCUSD) broke last week above its 7-month Bearish Megaphone pattern, which was essentially the pattern that absorbed via a relief pull-back the incredible rally that the market had since October 2023, fueled at large by the ETF speculation and then launch. ** Bearish Megaphones inside 7-year Channel Up ** This pattern is, as you can see, part of a greater 7-year Channel Up that encompasses the last two Cycles of BTC. Halfway through the 2018 - 2021 Cycle, the market also had a Bearish Megaphone, a little larger, lasting for 12 months before the price broke above it. ** The importance of the 1W MA50 ** That bullish break-out came when the price regained the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) as Support and until the Cycle Top, it was never compromised again. In an amazing display of Cycle symmetry, Bitcoin is also being supported by the 1W MA50 right now (has been since the March 13 2023 weekly candle), in fact it was successfully tested and held 3 times since August 05 2024. ** MACD Bullish Cross ** The Megaphone break-out and the 1W MA50 support aren't the only bullish indicators that point to a heavy price increase next. Perhaps the most important of all is the (L) MACD Bullish Cross on, also on the 1W time-frame, the first such formation in a whole year (since October 23 2023). This is a huge development as it comes after 7 months of non-bullish price action, indicating a shift in trend. ** Can the top be at $200k or above? ** When all those indicators were aligned in mid 2020, BTC kick started the 2nd, final and most aggressive Rally of its Cycle. It was +65% stronger than the 1st Rally. As a result, we may experience in the next 12 months a rally of +615% (65% greater than the +373% 1st Rally). But if this seems too great without a catalyst like the ETF launch was in January, even if BTC replicates the bullish price action of November 2022 - March 2024, it will still hit the $200k mark. What history has shown at least, is that we can stay bullish, until a 1W candle closes below the 1W MA50, whether that's at 100k, 150k or 200k and above. So what do you think about this triple bullish combo? Is it enough to initiate a 12-month rally? And if so, what is your target? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below! ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
CRYPTO:BTCUSDLong
by TradingShot
15
Is the Gold Rally Over? Preparing for the Next Wave of SellingSince the beginning of the week, I've been making the case that Gold's recent move has become overextended, and that complacency in the market often precedes strong reversals. This type of overconfidence, where traders believe the uptrend will continue indefinitely, can lead to sudden and sharp corrections when sentiment shifts. Indeed, after reaching yet another all-time high at 2758, OANDA:XAUUSD began to pull back. Once it broke below the key support level of the rising channel, the downward momentum intensified, leading to an accelerated sell-off. This drop culminated in an intraday low of 2708—an impressive 500-pip decline from top to bottom. Looking ahead, in my view, this correction is not over yet. I believe we are likely to see a new wave of selling pressure in the coming sessions. The market may experience brief rebounds or retracements, but these should be seen as opportunities to position for further downside. My strategy moving forward is to sell into this rebound, with negation if we have a new ATH. Until that happens, the primary target for this move remains the 2680-2690 support zone, which could provide a more substantial floor for the price in the near term.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by Mihai_Iacob
10
69.3-69.5K is a key to the next directionMorning folks, So, last time we said to not hurry up with the new long entry and then BTC has re-tested our 65.5K support area where we got nice long entry earlier. At first glance BTC looks nice bullish performance, but it is clearly slowing. D. Trump crypto programme has done its job and totally priced-in. Its impact is exhausting. If D. Trump will take the office we could get jump in a moment, but it mostly will be a psychological reaction. Now we would say that both directions have approx. similar chances. We have bullish and bearish patterns on different time scales. Thus, we suggest that 69.3-69.50K area will be the key to the next stop. Upside breakout will lead BTC to action above 70K+ while "222" Sell, if it will work, probably will trigger deeper downside retracement. So, make your bets with this issue in mind.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
GBPJPYGBPJPY . Potential long opportunity. This is an update on the previous analysis we have posted. We have been waiting on the break of our KL (Key Level) 195.971 . Today we broke that level and made a pullback to our PBA 1 (Pullback Area) . We believe that GBPJPY will continue to the upside with next levels to target at 199.180 where our TP (Take Profit) is sitting at. We were trading between our PBA’s since start of the month. Our SL (Stop Loss) is above our PBA 2 at 194.339 . Breaks below PBA 2 would result in break to the downside and we would see the price reach even lower prices. PARAMETERS - Entry: 195.774 - SL: 194.339 - TP: 199.180 KEY NOTES - GBPJPY has broken below our KL (Key Level) 195.971. - We have retested PBA 1 (195.600) - Break below our SL could result in deeper pullbacks and breaks of PBA 2. Happy trading! FxPocket
Long
by FxPocket
2
GBP/USD Today: Short Term Trend ForecastHello dear friends, a new week has come, wish you lots of energy! Currently, the GBP/USD exchange rate is fluctuating around 1.2965 and performing well in the downward price channel on the 1-hour chart. The main reason is that the market is witnessing economic stability in both the UK and the US, as retail sales in both countries exceeded expectations, indicating quite strong consumer spending. In addition, inflation in the UK has dropped to 1.7%, below the Bank of England's target, increasing the possibility of a rate cut in the near future, directly affecting this currency pair. Wishing you successful trading and good luck in the market!
Short
by Bentradegold
1
Lingrid | BITCOIN forming Trend Continuation PATTERNBINANCE:BTCUSDT is forming a triangle pattern after breaking through the downward channel on the daily chart. This pattern typically indicates a continuation of the current trend. It’s important to note that this pattern is developing just below the psychological level of 70,000, suggesting that the market may be preparing for a breakout. The previous weekly candle is a long-tailed bar, which also indicates a potential upward movement. This week, pay attention to the monthly candle closure, as it will give a hint into future price action; a close above the September high could be particularly significant. I expect a pullback and a potential fake breakout of the triangle pattern, followed by a retest of the ATH level. My goal is resistance zone around 72,000. Traders, if you liked this idea or if you have your own opinion about it, write in the comments. I will be glad 👩‍💻
Long
by Lingrid
5
EurCad could rise 200+ pipsSince late August 2022, EUR/CAD has been in a bullish trend, gaining approximately 1,000 pips. However, after reaching a local high in early August 2024, the pair began trading within a range, encountering clear resistance around the 1.5150–1.5200 zone. Last Thursday, the pair rebounded from range support, forming a strong bullish engulfing candle on the daily chart, which suggests a promising outlook for continued upward movement. I am looking to buy on dips in EUR/CAD with a target around 1.5200, while the trade setup will be negated if the price falls below last week’s low. A confirmed bullish signal would be a daily close above 1.5000.
Long
by Mihai_Iacob
5
EURUSD: Should I Buy?Hello everyone! Overall, EUR/USD is slightly down for the second day in a row, trading around 1.0780 on Monday morning. Looking at the daily chart, you can see that the pair is testing the upper boundary to return to the descending channel pattern. This could reinforce the bearish bias for the pair. However, there are signs of a potential bottom forming at 1.0760. Furthermore, using the Fibonacci retracement of the first wave, if the rally continues, the next recovery points for EURUSD would be 0.382 (price level 1.085) - 0.618 (price level 1.093) - 0.5 (price level 1.098).
Long
by Bentradegold
EUR/USD: Pullback Before the Big Drop?The EUR/USD exchange rate remains stable around 1.0790 during early Asian trading on Monday, yet it faces potential downside pressure due to rising expectations of a less dovish stance from the Federal Reserve. Recent encouraging economic data from the United States has fueled these expectations, suggesting the Fed may adopt a more stringent policy in November, which could strengthen the dollar. From a technical perspective, EUR/USD has broken out of its descending regression channel, stabilizing above the upper line. On the downside, support levels are seen at 1.0800 and 1.0750. Last Thursday, EUR/USD displayed some resilience, benefiting from improved market sentiment and a dip in U.S. Treasury yields, leading to a temporary softening of the dollar. However, the pair remains at a crossroads, awaiting fresh cues from the economic calendar, such as U.S. durable goods orders data, which is expected to show a 1% decline. A stronger-than-expected figure could boost the dollar, while a more significant drop might weaken it, though the effect on EUR/USD could be short-lived. The neutral stance in U.S. index futures partly reflects broader uncertainty, leaving open the possibility that shifts in risk sentiment could impact the dollar; a continuation of risk flows favoring safer assets might keep the USD under pressure. Good trading day!
Short
by Forex48_TradingAcademy
1
It is predicted that the price will continue to rise above 2,750Last week, gold prices fluctuated strongly, reaching a record high, but also encountered many difficulties in maintaining the upward momentum, causing experts to have mixed opinions on this week's price trend. According to a survey by Kitco News, the optimism of experts and investors has decreased significantly compared to last week, when only about 56% of experts forecast that gold prices will increase, 22% said that prices will decrease, and the remaining 22% hold a neutral opinion. Marc Chandler from Bannockburn Global Forex believes that gold prices may adjust in the short term. He said that current risks are tilted to the downside, especially if gold breaks the threshold of 2,700 USD/ounce, which could lead to strong selling pressure. Sharing the same opinion, Colin Cieszynski from SIA Wealth Management also forecasts that gold prices may decrease next week because there is no positive news from the BRICS conference for the precious metals market. He said that gold is facing a correction after previously increasing strongly. 🔥 XAUUSD Buy limit 2714 - 2712 🔥 ✔️TP1: 2730 ✔️TP2: 2750 ✔️TP3: OPEN 🚫SL: 2706 ➖➖➖➖➖➖➖➖ 🔥 XAUUSD Sell limit 2732 - 2734 🔥 ✔️ TP1: 2725 ✔️ TP2: 2720 ✔️ TP3: OPEN 🚫SL: 2742
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by TheLeader_WOLF
USDJPY needs to pay attention to the BOJ meeting on ThursdayThe Bank of Japan will make a decision on interest rates this Thursday and the market currently expects the bank to leave interest rates unchanged. At about 10:00 Hanoi time on October 31 (Thursday), the Bank of Japan will hold an interest rate decision. As fears of a recession in the US ease, the Bank of Japan may signal that its policy outlook will be less dovish. Recent data shows that Japan's core inflation remains under upward pressure, but the Bank of Japan will likely continue its "wait-and-see" approach at this week's meeting. The market will closely monitor the quarterly outlook report, as well as changes in the Bank of Japan's assessment of risks to the US economy and the recent depreciation of the yen. Technically, after being limited by the 0.618% Fibonacci retracement level, OANDA:USDJPY has dropped to get more support from the upper edge of the price channel. Along with that, maintaining price activity above the 0.618% Fibonacci level will be a positive signal for the uptrend in the near future. Currently, USD/JPY is likely to test the 154.525 level in the short term, more so than the 155.222 level with an upward trend from the near-term price channel. However, the room for USD/JPY's price increase is no longer too wide as the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is reaching the overbought level, signaling corrections to occur. But as long as USD/JPY remains in the price channel, it still has an uptrend in the short term, and as long as it stays in the price channel and maintains price activity above EMA21, it still has an uptrend in the medium to long term. The current price drops should be considered a short-term correction without changing the main trend. In the immediate future, the uptrend of USD/JPY will be noticed by the following technical points. Support: 153.365 – 151.866 Resistance: 154.525 – 155.22 2
by Xayah_trading
WTI creates a price gap, room for price declineTVC:USOIL dropped sharply in the Asian trading session today, October 28, at press time WTI crude oil maintained a decrease of 3dollars on the day, equivalent to 4.18% and is currently trading at 68.6USD/barrel. The current risk aversion in the geopolitical situation has subsided. Israel's weekend retaliatory strike against Iran bypassed Tehran's oil and nuclear infrastructure without disrupting energy supplies, easing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and further weakening pressure on the supply side, at the same time causing disadvantages for rising oil prices. With the US election approaching and demand expected to show no signs of recovery, some fundamental pressures have returned, causing the energy market to fall into a negative state again. Technically, on the daily chart of TVC:USOIL It created a GAP jump right at the opening of trading earlier this week and recovered slightly from the upper edge of the price channel. Although WTI crude oil recovered, it still has not reached the closest support level with the target of around 67.14 - 66.44USD, so WTI crude oil still has the ability to fall further before "filling the GAP". Usually, price gaps are filled, but this is sometimes not immediate, it can happen over the next one or more months, the important thing in trading is that it depends on the trend. WTI crude oil has been under pressure from the EMA21 moving average. Note to readers in the previous issue of WTI crude oil, along with that, the Relative Strength Index broke down from the 50 level, showing that The downside potential is very wide and the slope of the RSI also shows a huge downward momentum. Technically, WTI crude oil has enough pressure to decrease in price with main resistance at EMA21 and the 0.236% Fibonacci retracement level. Along with the downtrend, notable technical levels of WTI crude oil will be listed as follows. Support: 67.14 – 66.44USD Resistance: 68.59 – 69.73 – 70.56USD
TVC:USOIL
by Xayah_trading
Gold Rises Short-Term to Close Gap Ahead of US Economic DataBased on the chart and the current situation, I see gold prices are creating a gap and tending to rise to close that gap. This may reflect the cautious sentiment of investors ahead of the release of important US economic data this week, including GDP, unemployment rate, consumer confidence index and some other important indicators on the labor market. US government bond yields are rising sharply, pushing to 4.275%, and the Dollar-Index is also at a high of 104,400 points. These factors usually put downward pressure on gold prices because a stronger USD makes gold more expensive for investors holding other currencies. However, with the gap opening up, I expect a short-term rally to close the gap, before gold continues to test higher resistance levels. The key support level is still around $2,730, and if the price holds at this level, there is a good chance of a short-term rally to fill the gap, giving investors a chance to find a reasonable entry point in the short term. However, I remain cautious with the possibility of a drop to lower levels if US economic data supports the strength of the USD.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Naoomi
GOLD has broken out of the profit-taking trendSupported by tensions in the Middle East and US election tensions, OANDA:XAUUSD broke out of the profit-taking trend and then recovered in the last trading session of the week. As a hedge against political and economic instability, OANDA:XAUUSD is up more than 32% this year and has renewed all-time highs multiple times. This is mainly due to the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts and the market's need to hedge, creating a rising storm in precious metals like gold. Uncertainty about the US presidential election also boosted gold demand as polls showed the race for the White House remained tight. The Dollar increased for the fourth consecutive week as Trump's chances of victory increased. Gold increased despite the stronger Dollar because these two assets both have separate supports that are outside the influence of each other in terms of direct correlation. The COMEX gold speculative contract increased its net long position by 6,806 lots to 242,089 lots. This increase shows that the market's optimism towards gold has continued to increase. What should gold traders focus on in the current market context? Important events in the gold market this week mainly focus on geopolitical and economic policies. The following are key events and data affecting the gold market currently and in the near future. 1. Tensions in the Middle East are heating up Israeli air strikes on the Gaza Strip this week have killed and injured many Palestinians. This incident not only caused risk aversion in the market but also caused investors to rush into gold. The war in the Middle East is also increasingly showing signs of spreading further in the near future, this is certainly a very potential support for gold. 2. Uncertainty of the election of the President of the United States About the US presidential election The US presidential election is approaching Public opinion polls show that the election situation is still deadlocked and the market is very sensitive to the uncertainty of the election results . This factor has increased investor demand for gold and demand for gold bars continues to be strong. Domestic political turmoil in the United States has increased market demand for a safe haven and further strengthened gold's position as a safe haven asset. 3. The Federal Reserve cuts interest rates The Federal Reserve announced a 50bps interest rate cut, and this policy measure further supported gold's rise. The interest rate cuts have made the US Dollar less attractive, causing investors to switch to unprofitable assets such as gold, pushing up gold prices. At the same time, in a low interest rate environment, the opportunity cost of holding gold has decreased and this has caused gold prices to increase more than 32% this year. 4. Impact of the US Dollar on gold prices It is worth noting that the US Dollar continued its upward trend this week, but it did not put too much pressure on gold prices. This is because gold and the US Dollar are being influenced by two different factors, on the one hand gold is supported by the Fed's monetary policy and geopolitical instability, on the other hand the US Dollar is supported by the possibility of Trump's "coronation" as President. General baseline assessment The overall fundamental picture shows that gold is almost the top choice with solid supportive market conditions, from monetary policy to instability, geopolitical conflicts continue to risk spreading along with the uncertainty of the US presidential election. Even if a direct correlation like the US Dollar increases, gold is still not affected by it. Economic data to watch out for this week Tuesday: JOLTS Jobs Wednesday: ADP jobs data, Q3 GDP, US pending home sales, Bank of Japan monetary policy decision. Thursday: Core PCE, Personal income and spending, Weekly unemployment claims Friday: US nonfarm payrolls ; ISM manufacturing PMI index Analysis of technical prospects for OANDA:XAUUSD Technically, gold has no structural changes with an upward trend in both short, medium and long term from price channels. After gold corrected, it recovered from the price channel, receiving support from the 0.786% Fibonacci extension and the lower edge of the price channel that readers noticed last week. The price recovery helped gold break above the $2,741 1% Fibonacci extension price point. The current closing position gives gold the conditions to continue to increase with a target of 2,748 USD in the short term, more than the level of 2,758 USD. As long as gold remains within the price channel, it still has a bullish outlook in the short term, and notable technical levels for gold's uptrend are listed below. Support: 2,720 – 2,711USD Resistance: 2,748 – 2,758USD - … New ATH SELL XAUUSD PRICE 2767 - 2765⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2771 →Take Profit 1 2760 ↨ →Take Profit 2 2755 BUY XAUUSD PRICE 2699 - 2701⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2695 →Take Profit 1 2706 ↨ →Take Profit 2 2711
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Xayah_trading
EURUSD - Daily analysis - Downtrend is over, pay attention to geEURUSD - Daily analysis - Downtrend is over, pay attention to geopolitics. As the elections in the United States approach, we increasingly begin to pay attention to geopolitics, which affects the currency markets, and especially the dollar, at the expense of technical and fundamental analysis. In reality, only one working week remains until the all-important elections, where the world decides which way it will go next. Escalation of the two major conflicts into full-scale wars is a completely possible scenario. This would affect the United States depending on how involved the US would be. A further escalation of the wars could strengthen the dollar as US industry would produce more of the real good - weapons, as opposed to peace, where services are the driving force of the US economy. We expect new developments in the last days of the campaign, be it new attacks against Trump or escalation in the Middle East, after another batch of missile attacks against Tehran (Iran). On Monday, we don't really have any important data for the United States or Europe. On Tuesday we expect data on Consumer Confidence, Housing Price Index and JOLTS Job Openings. Big expectations for fundamental news from the United States are expected in the second half of the week, with the important Nonfarm Payrolls (Oct) report at the end. Expectations for Nonfarm Payrolls (Oct) are for a sharp decline in the numbers to weaker jobs data. That is why the dollar stopped the EURUSD downward trend in the last almost month. Thus, from the great growth of the dollar (EURUSD) from 1.12 at the end of September, to 1.0761 on October 23, 2024. This trend ended in the 43rd week of this year (the last week) to pass into expectations of a decline in the dollar and return to levels above 1.08. Thus, the downtrend is over and a break below 1.0760 is unlikely until at least Friday. Use the moment to trade in a neutral trend with a move of 25-40 pips or an uptrend in anticipation of levels above 1.0860. Let's also mention the BRICS meeting, which leaves the Dollar as the leading world currency in international payments for now, but more and more the Dollar will give way to the power of China, Russia and the rest of the world.
by World-Signals
Market News Report - 27 October 2024The greenback was again a bullish force in the past week. Other currencies that put up an upward fight include the Swiss franc and euro. Then, the Bank of Canada delivered an expected cut in the CAD interest rate. Let's see what to expect for our beloved forex market in the coming weeks in our market report. Market Overview Below is a brief technical and fundamental analysis breakdown for all major currencies. US dollar (USD) Short-term outlook: bearish. Despite a recent 50 basis points (bps) rate cut, the Fed may not need to cut rates as aggressively going forward. This is partly due to recent positive job numbers and earnings data that exceeded expectations. Still, the central bank has signalled the potential for two 25 bps drops by the end of this year. Meanwhile, a 50 bps cut has pretty much been priced out, with STIR (short-term interest rate) markets seeing a 14% chance of a hold next month. Keep an eye out for NFP (Non-Farm Payrolls) data this coming Friday. This will probably be the next USD driver, along with the US elections next Tuesday. The Dixie continues to head north after weeks of ranging around the key support area at 100.157. We have spoken several times about a potential technically-driven retracement (despite the bearish fundamentals). Meanwhile, the key resistance is far away at 107.348, which will remain untouched for some time. Long-term outlook: weak bearish. The latest strong NFP report has raised expectations for a 25 bps rate cut (instead of 50 bps), which is giving USD a boost in the near term. So, there is no extreme dovish pricing anymore. While the bearish bias remains, the dollar is gaining amid a broad pullback. This idea could prove even more relevant if Donald Trump wins the election on 05 November. Upcoming labour and GDP data will also be key in determining USD's long-term future. Euro (EUR) Short-term outlook: bearish. The STIR markets were predictably accurate as the European Central Bank (ECB) cut the interest rate recently. However, they remain data-dependent on what to do in the future (although they are quite concerned about slow growth). Also, the past week saw weaker economic data across various European nations. Finally, short-term interest rate markets have indicated an 84% chance of a rate cut in December. The euro has finally made its bearish intention known on the charts, breaking the key support at 1.07774 (but only just). We need to see how this level reacts this week - so it's not out of the question. Meanwhile, the key resistance remains far higher at 1.12757. Long-term outlook: bearish. The latest rate cut and the avoidance of indicating a clear future move for the December meeting are among the key down-trending factors. Furthermore, a threat of a trade tariff with Trump could be negative. However, any improvements in economic data (according to the ECB) would be a turnaround. So, we are changing our long-term bias from 'bearish' to 'weak bearish' now. British pound (GBP) Short-term outlook: bearish. The Bank of England (BoE) kept the interest rate steady in its recent meeting. Still, the language indicates they need to be “restrictive for sufficiently long.” Also, the central bank's higher-ups stressed "a gradual need" to cut rates. As with the ECB, the central bank's current key theme is fighting persistent inflation in the United Kingdom. So, it makes more sense to be dovish than hawkish. Not long ago, Governor Bailey hinted that "aggressive rate cuts" were possible if inflation went lower. We mentioned that the current retracement may be the start of a more serious bear move. So far, that's what the pound is experiencing. The nearest key support is at 1.26156, while the resistance target is 1.34343. Long-term outlook: weak bearish. Sequential rate cuts by the BoE may soon be a reality. Also, weak CPI, labour, or GDP data should be expected to back up the bearish bias. To add further to this point, the last GDP print shows a poor UK economy. However, the central bank hopes for lower service inflation, which may provide relief. Another interesting point is the latest CFTC (Commodity Futures Trading Commission) report, showing that GBP longs have been stretched to the upside. So, bullishness should be limited at some point. Japanese yen (JPY) Short-term outlook: bullish. The primary bullish catalyst is the Bank of Japan’s (BoJ) recent decision to hike the interest rate. STIR markets expect a hold at the next meeting on Wednesday (but a hike at the start of next year). ​​Governor Ueda of the BoJ noted that despite domestic economic recovery, recent exchange rate movements have reduced the upside risk of inflation (which has been on an upward trajectory). All of this backs up the potential for a rate hold or hike. The 139.579 support area is proving quite strong, boosting the yen since mid-September. Still, the major resistance (at 161.950) is too far for traders to worry about. Long-term outlook: weak bullish. Lower US Treasury yields are one potential bullish catalyst for the yen (the opposite is true). Inflation pressures and wage growth would also provide upward momentum. We should also consider that the dovish tendencies of other major central banks and worsening US macro conditions are JPY-positive Still, as a slight downer, near-term inflation risks subsiding (according to the BoJ) reduce the urgency for a rate hiking cycle. Australian dollar (AUD) Short-term outlook: weak bullish. The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) kept the interest rate unchanged during the Sept. 25 meeting. They further stated that they "did not explicitly consider rate hikes" for the future, which is a marginally dovish statement. The Aussie remains sensitive to China’s recent economic woes. However, high iron prices have supported the former. Finally, recent positive unemployment data gives a base case for a hold in the RBA interest rate meeting early next month. After failing to break the 0.69426 resistance level several times, the Aussie has retraced noticeably from this area. While this market looked bullish, this pullback does surprisingly indicate otherwise. Still, we are quite far from the major support level at 0.63484, but consider the interesting dynamic with the opposite fundamentals of AUD and USD. Long-term outlook: weak bullish. While the RBA hasn’t ruled anything out, the central bank isn’t explicitly suggesting rate hikes in the future. It’s crucial to be data-dependent with the Aussie, especially with core inflation as the RBA's key focus area. However, the Australian dollar is pro-cyclical, meaning it is exposed to the economies and geopolitics of other countries, especially China. New Zealand dollar (NZD) Short-term outlook: bearish. Unsurprisingly, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZD) cut its interest rate by 50 bps recently and sees further easing ahead. This affirms another cut next month of potentially the same magnitude. Furthermore, the central bank is confident that inflation will remain in the target zone, adding more impetus to the bearish bias. Due to the rate cut, the Kiwi has been on a downward spiral, proving the strength of the major resistance level at 0.63790. Conversely, the major support is at 0.58498. Long-term outlook: bearish. The central bank's latest dovish stance (where it cut the interest rate) firmly puts the Kiwi in a 'bearish bracket.' They also revised the OCR rates lower and signalled steady winnings in the inflation battle. Canadian dollar (CAD) Short-term outlook: bearish. The Bank of Canada (BoC) unsurprisingly delivered a 50 bps cut on Wednesday. Further cuts remain on the cards, with the long-term target being 3%. The BoC is signalling victory over inflation due to the cuts, with Governor Macklem suggesting that they would probably cut further until they achieve the optimal low inflation. In their words, 'stick the landing.' Overall, the bias remains bearish - expect strong rallies in CAD to find sellers. While the short-term fundamental biases of USD and CAD are bearish, CAD is weaker on the charts. USD/CAD is almost at the point of knocking on the key resistance at 1.39468, while the key support lies down at 1.33586. Long-term outlook: weak bearish. Expectations of a rate cut remain the focal point. The Bank of Canada has recognised the lower economic growth, and Macklem wishes to see this increase. Furthermore, any big misses in upcoming GBP, inflation, and labour data will send CAD lower. Still, encouraging oil prices and general economic data improvement would save the Canadian dollar's blushes. Swiss franc (CHF) Short-term outlook: bearish. STIR markets were, as usual, correct in their 43% chance of a 25 bps rate cut (from 1.25% to 1%) recently. In the Sept. 26 meeting, the Swiss National (SNB) indicated its preparedness to intervene in the FX market and further rate cuts in the coming quarters. The central bank's new Chair (Schlegel) said they "cannot rule out negative rates." Finally, the September CPI came in weak at 0.8%, against the expected year-on-year 1.1%. Still, the Swiss franc can strengthen during geopolitical tensions like a worsening Middle East crisis. USD/CHF has just broken out of the range (but only just) discussed in our last few reports. While remaining largely bearish, this market could return closer to the major support level at 0.83326 or climb its way to the higher major resistance level at 0.92244. Long-term outlook: weak bearish. The bearish sentiment remains after the last SNB meeting, while inflation is being tamed with lower revisions. We should also remember that the SNB's intervention prevents the appreciation of the Swiss franc. The new chairman is more keen to cut rates than his predecessor, Jordan. Conversely, 'safe haven flows,' and geopolitical risks can positively support the currency. As with other central banks, inflation is a crucial metric in the SNB's policy rates. Conclusion In summary: The USD seems particularly strong (despite being fundamentally bearish), with the upcoming NFP release and US elections as the events to watch. This week's main high-impact news event is Wednesday's JPY interest rate decision. Our short and long-term fundamental outlooks remain unchanged from the last few weeks. As always, hope for the best and prepare for the worst. This report should help you determine your bias toward each currency in the short and long term.
TVC:DXY
by CityTradersImperium_CTI
Alikze »» DOT | Corner pattern in 4H time frame🔍 Technical analysis: Corner pattern in 4H time frame - It is oscillating in a corner pattern in the 4H time frame. - According to the hunt of the previous swing, as well as the correction to the green box area and the creation of demand, an upward movement cycle is observed. - This motivational move can move up to the broken swing of the 4.145 range. - In case of a break, the next target is the HL ceiling and finally it can continue its growth dynamics until the trigger. ⚠️ In addition, if there is a selling pressure reaction in dealing with the swing, the correction can continue until the green box area.⚠️ »»»«««»»»«««»»»««« Please support this idea with a LIKE and COMMENT if you find it useful and Click "Follow" on our profile if you'd like these trade ideas delivered straight to your email in the future. Thanks for your continued support. Best Regards,❤️ Alikze. »»»«««»»»«««»»»««« MEXC:DOTUSDT
Long
by alikze
GOLD MARKET ANALYSIS AND COMMENTARY - [October 28 - November 01]This week, OANDA:XAUUSD increased from 2,714 USD/oz to 2,758 USD/oz, then decreased to 2,708 USD/oz, then recovered and closed the week at 2,747 USD/oz. In addition to basic factors, such as central banks buying gold, the BRICS bloc seeking de-dollarization, geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East, the Korean Peninsula, etc. are the main causes pushing up gold prices in recent times. Up to now, although tensions on the Korean peninsula have not ended, according to many experts, war is unlikely to occur on the peninsula. Because, major powers and international organizations have been trying to find ways to prevent war from happening on the Korean peninsula. As for the conflict in the Middle East, Israel has just launched an attack on military targets in Iran. According to Israel, this is the country's response to Iran's actions and Iranian proxy resources that have attacked Israel since January 10, 2024. The Israeli attack began at dawn on October 26, but ended three hours later. Israel warned Iran that if Iran responds to this Israeli attack, subsequent attacks will be stronger. Next week's gold price may continue to increase due to investors' worries about Israel's attack against Iran. However, if Iran does not retaliate against Israel, it is possible that next week's gold price will adjust back down. Next week there will be a lot of important economic data released. Notably, the non-agricultural employment report (NFP) is notable. The FED's dual mission will become the focus of attention next week when the market receives information about the US Personal Consumption Expenditure Index (PCE), which is expected to remain at a high level. With the labor market declining and high inflation persisting, it is likely that the FED may only cut interest rates by 25 basis points at next month's meeting. This also somewhat negatively affects the psychology of gold investors, causing gold prices next week to be under more profit-taking pressure. 📌Technically, from a short-term perspective on the H1 chart, the gold price still shows an uptrend when the price is above the EMA89 moving average. Next week, if the gold price trades above the 2720 threshold, we can expect the price to continue to conquer the round resistance level of 2800. In case the support level of 2710 is broken, the immediate gold price will decrease and adjust to around the 2680 mark. Notable technical levels are listed below. Support: 2.710 – 2.720USD Resistance: 2.758 – 2.748USD SELL XAUUSD PRICE 2801 - 2799⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2805 BUY XAUUSD PRICE 2679 - 2681⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2675
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Xayah_trading