EUR/USD: Selling pressure takes control!Hello all traders!
Overall, a lackluster start to the week saw the EUR/USD pair extend its decline, falling below the 1.0900 mark and recording a fresh two-month low near the key 34-day Simple Moving Average (EMA).
As such, the US Dollar (USD) continued its rally, pushing the US Dollar Index (DXY) to a fresh multi-week high above 103.00 on persistently high risk sentiment and rising geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. That said, the selling pressure on EUR/USD is not over until the price retests the trendline and the 1.0800 support zone.
Signals
EURUSD: to the point of important supportEUR/USD has restored half -hearted on Thursday, restoring four tenths of percent and increasing over 1,0800. Despite the recovery on the weekend, Fiber still dropped sharply compared to the recent high level after a decrease of more than 4% from top to bottom compared to the highest bid at the end of September nearly 1,1200.
Technically, the recent decline has followed the principle of DOW theory, showing that after a large decline, the market will often tend to adjust. In this scenario, EURUSD is likely to retreat to Fibonacci levels 0.5 to 0.618, in the range of 1,09307 to 1,09836. This will be an important resistance area, where the price may slow down or have a selling pressure again.
What do you think of the recovery momentum at the present time?
Corrected, GOLD recovered and the trend remained unchangedOANDA:XAUUSD significant downside correction and recovery from the key technical area around the 0.786% Fibonacci extension.
Mainly influenced by the strengthening of the US Dollar and US bond yields, along with the easing of tensions in the Middle East were the main reasons why gold prices fell sharply on Wednesday. In addition, gold prices have recently risen too sharply, technical indicators have become overbought and part of the market has chosen to take profits.
Markets are also concerned that the US presidential election in November could be competitive and it could take some time to determine a winner.
Bloomberg reported that the US presidential election in November is entering its final weeks, the race between former President Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris is taking place extremely fiercely.
A Bloomberg News/Morning Consult poll shows the two candidates are statistically tied in seven battleground states.
In all seven states, the two candidates are neck and neck, with both candidates receiving 49% support from likely voters. The poll's overall margin of statistical error is 1%.
However, the market also remains concerned that the conflict between Israel and Iran could escalate into a wider war.
Despite the short-term correction, gold prices have increased more than 30% since the beginning of this year, continuously reaching new highs. Gold's rally has strengthened over the past few months as the Federal Reserve moved to reduce interest rates.
Fund managers have also contributed to gold's rally, as hedge funds increased their net long positions in gold in recent sessions and investors increased their holdings of exchange-traded funds (ETFs).
Analysis of technical prospects for OANDA:XAUUSD
On the daily chart, gold corrected significantly after the Relative Strength Index showed gold was in the overbought area (75%). However, the correction does not bring many opportunities for further price declines as the slope of the RSI is relatively low and shows signs of bending upward, depicting a weakening sell-off sentiment.
On the other hand, gold is still above the short-term trend price channel. Note to readers in previous publications on the price channel. As long as gold remains in this price channel, its short-term trend is still bullish.
The lower edge of the price channel is also confluent with the 0.786% Fibonacci extension, making this an important support area.
Although gold has adjusted down, all short-, medium- and long-term conditions and trends are still in favor of price increases. Notable levels will be listed again as follows.
Support: 2,711 – 2,700USD
Resistance: 2,741 – 2,748 – 2,758USD
SELL XAUUSD PRICE 2741 - 2739⚡️
↠↠ Stoploss 2745
→Take Profit 1 2734
↨
→Take Profit 2 2729
BUY XAUUSD PRICE 2680 - 2682⚡️
↠↠ Stoploss 2676
→Take Profit 1 2687
↨
→Take Profit 2 2692
USD/JPY: US Elections and Middle East War!USD/JPY fell towards 152.00 after reaching a 12-week high near 153.20, due to a temporary correction in the US Dollar (USD), which saw the Dollar Index (DXY) dip to 104.20. Despite this, the Dollar's outlook remains bullish, supported by positive economic data such as the October US services PMI, which exceeded expectations with an expansion to 55.3. Political uncertainty and the upcoming US presidential elections further enhance the Dollar's appeal as a safe-haven currency. In Japan, the cautious statements from Bank of Japan (BoJ) Governor Kazuo Ueda, who indicated a gradual approach to assessing inflation, suggest that further rate hikes are unlikely in the near term. This divergence in monetary policies between the US and Japan continues to support a bullish trend for USD/JPY, with the current correction seen as temporary.
TESLA Have today's upbeat earnings erased the Robotaxi disaster?Tesla (TSLA) reported yesterday third-quarter results that beat Wall Street estimates and said it expects to achieve "slight" growth in deliveries this year. This was enough to send the price in an after-market frenzy and so far in-session rising almost by +20%.
In fact, Tesla's market cap has increased by $126B today, the largest single day jump ever! Those earnings may prove to be pivotal for the automaker as they come just a few days after the Robotaxi event, which the market considered disappointing.
So can those earnings result be enough to reverse Tesla's fortunes, which has been massively underperforming relative to (particularly) the rest of the Magnificent 7? Well this can be answered through a technical perspective, with a chart that we published more than 2 months ago (August 15, see chart below):
That was Tesla's Channel Up since the January 06 2023 market bottom on the 1W time-frame, where we caught a buy just after the August 2024 Low. We projected that to be halfway through the new long-term Bullish Leg of the Channel. The recent October correction can be viewed as the April 24 2023 2nd wave of the mid-term pull-back of the Bullish Leg.
On the current analysis we view the same pattern but on the 1D time-frame, where the 1D MACD in particular excels at illustrating the identical nature of the two Bullish Legs price actions.
Right now the MACD is forming the 2nd clean Bullish Cross under the Lower Highs belt, a formation which on May 04 2023 turned out to be the confirmation that started the 2nd phase of the Bullish Leg that completed a +195% rise from the January 2023 bottom.
As a result, not only do we expect the stock to reach Resistance 1 (299.50), which is the July 19 2023 High before the year ends but also test Resistance 2 (385.00), which is the April 05 2022 High by January 2025.
Our Target long-term remains a straight up $380.00 as we pointed out those months back.
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NZDUSD H1The New Zealand dollar against the US dollar is still trending downwards, but we notice a slow decline, which requires a return of positivity. Accordingly, after receiving a price action signal, we look forward to buying from levels 0.5973
With first targets: 0.60852
Second target: 0.61214
Third target: 0.61967
The stop is the closing of an hourly candle below levels: 0.59446
Don't forget to take a buy price action
OANDA:NZDUSD
NZDUSD: Bearish Rally Continues 🇳🇿🇺🇸
NZDUSD may keep falling after a release of US fundamentals.
As a confirmation, I see a breakout of a support line of a bearish
flag pattern after a test of a key resistance level.
The price will most likely reach 0.6 level soon.
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DXY: Move Up Expected! Buy!
Welcome to our daily DXY prediction!
We made our analysis today using SMC and ICT trading theories, which, combined with our trading experience all point to the upside. So we are locally bullish biased and the target for the long trade is 104.301
Wish you good luck in trading to you all!
SILVER: Local Correction Ahead! Buy!
Welcome to our daily SILVER prediction!
We made our analysis today using SMC and ICT trading theories, which, combined with our trading experience all point to the upside. So we are locally bullish biased and the target for the long trade is 34.36554$
Wish you good luck in trading to you all!
NAS100USD Will Go Lower From Resistance! Sell!
Here is our detailed technical review for NAS100USD.
Time Frame: 6h
Current Trend: Bearish
Sentiment: Overbought (based on 7-period RSI)
Forecast: Bearish
The market is approaching a key horizontal level 20,274.5.
Considering the today's price action, probabilities will be high to see a movement to 20,102.3.
P.S
The term oversold refers to a condition where an asset has traded lower in price and has the potential for a price bounce.
Overbought refers to market scenarios where the instrument is traded considerably higher than its fair value. Overvaluation is caused by market sentiments when there is positive news.
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USOIL Will Go Up From Support! Long!
Take a look at our analysis for USOIL.
Time Frame: 12h
Current Trend: Bullish
Sentiment: Oversold (based on 7-period RSI)
Forecast: Bullish
The market is approaching a significant support area 71.32.
The underlined horizontal cluster clearly indicates a highly probable bullish movement with target 75.37 level.
P.S
We determine oversold/overbought condition with RSI indicator.
When it drops below 30 - the market is considered to be oversold.
When it bounces above 70 - the market is considered to be overbought.
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EURUSD Will Go Lower! Short!
Please, check our technical outlook for EURUSD.
Time Frame: 4h
Current Trend: Bearish
Sentiment: Overbought (based on 7-period RSI)
Forecast: Bearish
The market is on a crucial zone of supply 1.079.
The above-mentioned technicals clearly indicate the dominance of sellers on the market. I recommend shorting the instrument, aiming at 1.071 level.
P.S
Overbought describes a period of time where there has been a significant and consistent upward move in price over a period of time without much pullback.
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AUDUSD Will Go Up! Buy!
Here is our detailed technical review for AUDUSD.
Time Frame: 5h
Current Trend: Bullish
Sentiment: Oversold (based on 7-period RSI)
Forecast: Bullish
The price is testing a key support 0.665.
Current market trend & oversold RSI makes me think that buyers will push the price. I will anticipate a bullish movement at least to 0.672 level.
P.S
Please, note that an oversold/overbought condition can last for a long time, and therefore being oversold/overbought doesn't mean a price rally will come soon, or at all.
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GBPCHF: Bullish Movement After News 🇬🇧🇨🇭
The release of the morning's UK fundamentals looks very bullish for GBPCHF.
The price nicely respected an intraday horizontal support
and formed a double bottom pattern on that.
The closest strong resistance is a falling trend line on an hourly,
with a high probability, it will be reached soon.
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COCA COLA bottomed. Get ready for a +20% rally.Last time we looked at the Coca-Cola Company (KO) was at the end of the previous year (December 07 2023, see chart below), giving a buy signal, which eventually hit our $62.00 Target, even though it had to take longer than we expected:
This time, the price action is giving us yet again a very strong buy signal as the price rebounded yesterday exactly on the 0.236 Fibonacci retracement level of the 1-year Channel. At the same time, so did the 1W RSI, reversing upwards below its MA level, consistent with the previous two bottoms of April 12 2024 and October 06 2023.
Based on the lowest rally we had within this Channel, we expect Coca Cola to rise by at least +19.45%, setting our Target at $79.70.
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USDSEK The most 'neat' sell you can take!The USDSEK pair has been trading within a Channel Down since the May 01 2024 High. The price has been on its latest Bullish Leg since the September 27 Lower Low and right now the price is just a step before testing the top (Lower Highs trend-line) of the Channel Down.
At the same time, the 1D RSI touched the 70.00 overbought barrier and turned sideways for the past week. This is a bearish sign as every time it did so since April 30, the Channel Down had topped.
As you can see there is a high degree of symmetry within this Channel and we expect the new Bearish Leg that will start to follow the same parameters. The previous ones bottomed after around -7.00% declines and on the -0.236 Fib extension.
As a result our sell Target as of today is 9.90500 (above the -0.236 Fib on less than -6.89% decline).
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FTSE Bullish break-out taking place. Target 8650.Almost 2 months ago (August 30, see chart below) we called for a rejection of FTSE 100 (UK100) back to the Symmetrical Support Zone (SSZ), where our next buy entry would be:
As you can see, the price action duly delivered and the price has been gradually rising off the SSZ to the point where last week it broke above the Lower Highs trend-line. The 1W RSI is also about to make a bullish break-out above its own Channel Down.
We have seen this kind of pattern during the previous two Bullish Legs since late 2022. Every time they broke above the Resistance Zone, the price peaked around the 1.382 Fibonacci extension. As a resut, our new long-term Target is 8650.
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