USDJPY → Consolidating Before the Next Rally.Hello, dear friends! Ben here!
USD/JPY is consolidating after a strong bullish run, fluctuating around the 157.75 level.
The Japanese Yen continues to weaken amid wavering expectations regarding a potential rate hike by the Bank of Japan (BoJ). The Jibun Bank Japan Services PMI was revised lower to 50.9 from 51.4 in December. Meanwhile, the US Dollar remains near a two-year high, supported by the Fed's hawkish shift, further bolstering the USD/JPY pair.
Currently, the focus is on the consolidation phase, which has been forming over the past few weeks. We have clear boundaries, trends, and key levels to guide our trading decisions.
For me, the trigger lies at the 158 resistance level. A breakout and price consolidation above this level would confirm that the pair is ready to push higher. This rally is expected to reach the upper boundary of the ascending channel around 159, completing wave 5 within the channel.
Regards !
Signals
XAUUSD Bullish break-out targeting $3000 about to happenGold (XAUUSD) has been trading within a 15-month Channel Up (since the October 06 2023 Low) and it's been under bearish pressure since the most recent October 30 2024 Higher High of the pattern.
The consolidation around the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) since the November 14 2024 Low formed a Triangle pattern that is consistent with the previous two bottom formations (Higher Lows) of the Channel Up.
More specifically, last Friday's rejection on the 1D MA50 is technically the 3rd since the November 14 2024 Low. In the previous two bottom formations, Gold never had a 4th rejection, on the contrary when it broke above the 1D MA50 after the 3rd, it also broke above the Triangle patterns, and technically initiated the new Bullish Leg of the pattern.
The 1D MACD sequences are also similar among those fractals, in fact we just completed the 2nd Bullish Cross below the 0.000 level, which was the Buy Signal before the 1D MA50/ Triangle top bullish break-out.
As a result, we expect the new Bullish Leg to start soon and since both previous rallies have been at least +21.85%, our Target now is even below that estimate at $3000.
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GOLD Update: Should I buy it?OANDA:XAUUSD continues to attract attention even as the US dollar strengthens, fueled by ongoing geopolitical and economic crises that drive demand for safe-haven assets. Prices are consolidating above previous resistance levels and are pushing toward establishing new local highs.
As for gold's price volatility, the upcoming week will feature several key US economic data releases, including employment reports and the Federal Reserve's meeting minutes. These updates are expected to provide investors with greater clarity on the Fed's monetary policy, especially following projections of interest rate cuts in 2025.
Regarding the gold strategy for the new week, Ben personally prioritizes buying strategies if the price remains within the wedge, targeting at least the upper boundary of the price channel. This anticipated upward move is expected to reach the level of 2690.
BITCOIN New year, same thing..Bitcoin (BTCUSD) has just reclaimed the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) over the weekend and is so far successfully holding it below the price action, making it a Support.
The exact same price action took place in January last year (2024). In fact, as these 1D charts very vividly illustrate, the whole sequence from the September 06 2024 Low to today, is very similar to the sequence from the September 11 2023 Low to (so far) January 2024.
This incredible degree of symmetry is also extending to their 1D RSI and MACD fractals. The first formed Bearish Divergences under Lower Highs trend-lines, which when broken confirm the new rally, while the latter (MACD) was the early buy signal when it formed a Bullish Cross below the 0.00 mark.
If BTC continues to copy the January 2024 fractal, then we should be expecting a few more days of sideways price action, that will pave the way for the new (2nd) Rally Phase of the whole pattern. The 2nd rally peaked on the 1.618 Fibonacci extension from the September 11 2023 Low, so if the pattern replication continues, we may see a peak above $150k.
So do you think the early 2024 bullish break-out will be repeated? And if yes, are you expecting a peak as high as $150000? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
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Lingrid | EURUSD short the PULLBACK in the Bearish TRENDFX:EURUSD market is currently pulling back toward the resistance zone, which may present an opportunity for trend continuation. The overall trend remains bearish, supported by bearish momentum in the market. The December monthly candle closed very bearish. Given this context, I anticipate that the market will continue to push lower. If the price provides a clear signal at the resistance at 1.03670 and the downward trendline area, I expect to see a trend continuation opportunity in this bearish market. My goal is support zone around 1.02650
Traders, if you liked this idea or if you have your own opinion about it, write in the comments. I will be glad 👩💻
Lingrid | BITCOIN pullback Exhausted, CONTINUATION Phase BeginsBINANCE:BTCUSDT market broke through the downward trendline. Following this breakout, the price has moved higher toward the psychological level of 100,000. On the weekly timeframe, the price closed with a bullish candle after two consecutive bearish candles. Currently, it is testing the area above last week’s high. I believe the market may form a pullback toward a support level, which could be followed by another upward move. I expect the price to retest the all-time high by the end of the month. My goal is resistance zone around 102,800
Traders, if you liked this idea or if you have your own opinion about it, write in the comments. I will be glad 👩💻
Big test for BTCMorning folks,
So, we're almost there - 100.5K area that we've discussed last time. BTC is almost completed the predefined XOP extension.
Why this level is so important. Because it determines the results of H&S daily pattern - whether it will work or fail:
Correspondingly, it tells where BTC will go - either back to the 108K top (or even higher) or starts deeper retracement to ~82-87K area.
Besides, it is important to us because we have to make a decision on short position taking. Here we also could use 1H potential H&S pattern, with 99K area of the right arm and potential level for decision making. This is just to not risk too much.
So, watching for completion of XOP, then 1H H&S - if everything goes as it should, thinking about short entry. If not - then start watching North.
XAUUSD - Todays PlanWe are back after the festive period! Here is our view and update on XAUUSD . Potential opportunities and what to look out for after the Holiday season and start of the New Year.
Let’s take a step back and take a look at XAUUSD from a bigger perspective. For this we are attaching the long-term overview on the pair.
We are still following the sell bias we have published on November 27th.
XAUUSD is currently trading at around 2635 .
Scenario 1: SELLS from 2636 or 2630
That would confirm our pullback to the upside and breaking below 2630 would give us an opportunity to drop back down to 2611 or 2604 which is still one of our major Key Levels. Next we would be targeting a very important KL (Key Level) 2590.
Scenario 2: BUYS from 2645
We broke above 2636 and are trading above it. We should see more upside towards 2645 potentially reaching and breaking 2660. If 2660 is broken, it would invalidate our long-term analysis on XAUUSD.
Personal opinion:
We are still extremely bearish on XAUUSD. Safe sells would be placed at breaks of 2630 and we could potentially reach our target today (2611 - 2604). On the other hand if we start breaking above 2636 and breaking 2645, we would be looking to finally change our long-term bias and look for further buys reaching 2714 again.
KEY NOTES
- XAUUSD breaking below 2630 would confirm sells down to 2611 - 2604.
- XAUUSD breaking above 2645 would confirm further buys up to 2660.
- DXY is still holding strength and shows no signs of stopping.
Thank you everyone for your amazing support lately. We will continue to provide value to you.
Happy trading!
FxPocket
World market forecast positive due to high demand for goldThe world gold price jumped by another $7 to $2,647 an ounce. According to market analyst Fawad Razaqzada of City Index, gold still faces many challenges in the short term, such as the strength of the greenback, rising bond yields, and weak demand from the Asian market. However, despite those challenges, the gold price target of $3,000 an ounce is still feasible. Any correction or consolidation in early 2025 could set the stage for another rally in the second half of the year.
Ms. Nicky Shiels, Head of Metals Research and Strategy at MKS PAMP, expects gold prices to trade in a fairly wide range of $2,500 to $3,200 an ounce, with the precious metal largely dependent on the US Federal Reserve's (Fed) interest rate changes related to inflation.
For now, investors still believe that a stronger US dollar and tighter monetary policy could create some headwinds for gold. However, gold remains an important asset in investors' portfolios this year. The trend of de-dollarization by central banks, complex and unpredictable geopolitics, global debt and investor demand... will ensure that gold is a safe asset diversification tool.
GOLD MARKET ANALYSIS AND COMMENTARY - [January 06 - January 10]OANDA:XAUUSD are almost trading in a narrow range throughout the Christmas holiday and New Year 2025. Currently, gold prices have not yet escaped the triangle model of the H4 technical chart.
Entering 2025, three important factors can shape the price of gold. First, the big event will take place on January 20 this year when Donald Trump takes office as US President. Mr. Trump is likely to put pressure on the FED to influence the interest rate environment.
Second, Mr. Trump will heat up the trade war with other countries, especially with Canada, Mexico, Europe and China. This means economic growth could suffer and geopolitical instability could linger.
Third, we are in a period where most investors will reallocate investment flows into their portfolios. As economic and political variables are gradually changing.
In the long term, gold prices may continue to be influenced by the above factors. But in the short term this week, the market will focus on important US economic data, such as manufacturing and service PMI index; Employment indicators: ADP, NFP, unemployment rate... If US employment figures, especially NFP, increase stronger than expected, gold prices will be under pressure to adjust. On the contrary, if US employment figures continue to decline sharply, it will positively support gold prices.
📌Technically, from a short-term perspective this week, there are 2 resistance levels to pay attention to: the resistance level at 2685 and the round resistance level at 2600. In case the resistance level is broken, corresponding to the price breaking through the Downtrend line, the price will Gold will continue to maintain its upward trend to the 2720-2790 thresholds respectively. In the opposite case, if the gold price drops from the Uptrend line, we will see a scenario where the price drops back around the 2530 threshold.
Notable technical levels are listed below.
Support: 2,634 – 2,604 – 2,600USD
Resistance: 2,664 – 2,693USD
SELL XAUUSD PRICE 2686 - 2684⚡️
↠↠ Stoploss 2690
BUY XAUUSD PRICE 2599 - 2601⚡️
↠↠ Stoploss 2595
Alikze »» PEOPLE |Corrective structure in ascending channel🔍 Technical analysis: Corrective structure in ascending channel
- It is moving in an ascending channel in the daily time frame.
- At present, the supply area is faced with sales pressure.
- According to the downward momentum, it can have a pullback with a broken structure.
💎Possible scenario: Therefore, any attempt to the supply zone, if it does not break it upwards, can continue the downward path and touch the 0.04880 range first.
💎 Alternative scenario: In addition, if the region breaks the supply, it can grow to the next region.
🛑 Resistance range: 0.10986 - 0.12207
🟩 Support range: 0.03662 - 0.04272
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#SEI. Profitable Trade Opportunity. 02/06/25BINANCE:SEIUSDT It’s worth considering entering a position since there’s currently an opportunity for a profitable trade.
At the moment, the asset price has approached the structure's resistance level, and further price movement will depend on its reaction to this price range.
Personally, I’d recommend considering an entry in case of a correction within the range of $0.4380 - $0.3638, with a target of $0.7316 - $0.9336. You can also take a small position from the current levels, using a small percentage of your total spot deposit.
DYOR.
#PEPE. Accumulation Insights: Preparing for Price MomentumAt the moment, the price is in an accumulation phase, and I would look for entry points in case of a correction, ideally as close as possible to the lower boundary of this structure ($0.00001800 - $0.00001700). Personally, I plan to buy exclusively within this range.
If the condition with volumes and the support level is met, this could lead to upward price movement toward the next resistance level, where the price may once again encounter difficulties in continuing to rise (we’ll monitor the situation as it unfolds).
DYOR.
#SUI Growth Potential. Don’t Miss This Move.BINANCE:SUIUSDT
If we look at #SUI on a larger scale, it once again appears to be outperforming the rest, leading the charge among its peers. History is repeating itself.
Currently, the #SUI chart also looks very bullish, signaling at least a potential 2x growth from current levels. Overall, I expect #SUI to reach $10—but do as you see fit.
That said, a local corrective pullback to the mirror level (previously broken resistance that now serves as support) is possible. View this as an opportunity to either open short positions or long positions, depending on your trading strategy.
I've laid everything out in detail—it's impossible to misinterpret.
DYOR.
Amplified Emotions: Recognizing Key Signals in TradingAlmost every book on trading psychology emphasizes that trading is a challenging endeavor requiring continuous improvement of knowledge, self-education, and patience. From the very start, a novice trader often adopts a mindset rooted in the belief that "the more you work, the more you earn." However, this mindset can lead to a trap that many traders fall into. Influenced by this belief, they start to think that nothing worthwhile comes without significant effort. When success seems to come easily, they often look for hidden catches, feel guilty about their achievements, and unintentionally complicate their trading journey.
📍 Amplification in Trading Psychology
Amplification, in the context of psychology, refers to the exaggerated perception of trader's experiences and emotions. This heightened sense of anxiety and over-complication can add unnecessary problems in trading.
📍 Using a Sledgehammer to Crack a Nut
Consider the following scenario: You discover a small leak in your faucet. Rather than using a simple wrench to tighten the fitting or calling a plumber for assistance, you decide to bring in heavy machinery and start tearing down the entire kitchen wall to access the pipes. Even if you manage to achieve your goal of fixing the leak, the collateral damage and chaos you’ve created far outweigh the simplicity of the initial solution.
📍 How Amplification Manifests Itself in Trading
1. "I'm Not Looking for Easy Ways."
This mindset arises from the earlier mentioned belief that greater effort equates to better results. For instance, if you need to dig up a field, using a shovel may seem earnest, but it makes far more sense to employ a tractor to expedite the job. In trading, this effect plays out as follows:
• A trader convinced that gaining expertise requires extensive reading may spend weeks poring over numerous books on indicators and technical analysis. In reality, even a few tutorials on a broker's website would suffice to get started on a demo account. Meanwhile, other traders are already opening real trades.
• Understanding the need for mathematics in risk management, a novice might obsess over complex concepts like Fibonacci numbers or Gann squares, which could be beneficial but are unnecessary at the beginning stage.
• A trader may feel pressured to increase trading volumes after seeing others boast online about their larger trades. In doing so, they often violate their risk management principles, leading to significant losses.
• Some traders believe that more screen time equates to better control over the market. They find themselves "hypnotizing" the charts for hours, erroneously thinking that mere observation translates to greater market mastery.
Ultimately, these behaviors result in nothing but stress, eye strain, headaches, and insomnia—hardly the path to effective trading.
2. “All or Nothing”
This form of amplification manifests when individuals believe that success depends on having maximum resources at their disposal. They feel compelled to trade like a professional from the start, insisting on having three monitors, state-of-the-art software, and high-speed VPS—all while struggling to understand even basic calculations like stop-loss lengths. Yet, when equipped with these resources, they might still face losses. This discrepancy invites questions: “Could it be that my approach is flawed?”
3. Delayed Preparation and Lack of Determination
When faced with the fear of taking the first real step in trading, individuals often fall into the trap of excessive planning. They think, "How can I trade without a perfectly crafted trading system?" As they immerse themselves in theory, they witness their peers successfully trading on real accounts, while they remain stuck in a perpetual cycle of preparation.
Anxiety thrives on the hyperbolic exaggeration of potential consequences. Many traders grapple with crippling questions like: "What if it doesn’t work out?" or "What if I make a mistake?” To combat amplification, it's crucial to analyze the underlying reasons for hesitancy.
Some common causes include:
Uncertainty about the outcome: Worrying excessively about potential failures.
Lack of confidence in abilities: Feeling inadequately prepared or underqualified.
Nervous tension and anxiety: Allowing emotions to cloud judgment.
While it's essential not to plunge into trading without sufficient knowledge, it's equally important not to overcomplicate the process. Just as you wouldn't use a sledgehammer to crack a nut, you should identify the root causes of amplification and seek straightforward solutions that yield the best results with minimum effort.
Traders, If you liked this educational post🎓, give it a boost 🚀 and drop a comment 📣
GOLD: Risky Long!
The charts are full of distraction, disturbance and are a graveyard of fear and greed which shall not cloud our judgement on the current state of affairs in the GOLD pair price action which suggests a high likelihood of a coming move down.
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SILVER: Potential Short! SELL!
My dear friends,
Please, find my technical outlook for SILVER below:
The instrument tests an important psychological level 29.80$
Bias - Bearish
Technical Indicators: Supper Trend gives a precise Bearish signal, while Pivot Point HL predicts price changes and potential reversals in the market.
Target - 29.30$
About Used Indicators:
Super-trend indicator is more useful in trending markets where there are clear uptrends and downtrends in price.
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WISH YOU ALL LUCK
GBP_CHF LOCAL LONG|
✅GBP_CHF is approaching a demand level of 1.1260
So according to our strategy
We will be looking for the signs of the reversal in the trend
To jump onto the bullish bandwagon just on time to get the best
Risk reward ratio for us
LONG🚀
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