KASUSD Can the 1D Death Cross really save the day???KASPA (KASUSD) has been trading within a Falling Wedge pattern since the July 31 top and is almost on the Higher Lows trend-line that started on the January 23 2024 Low. The key development of the day however, is the formation of the 1D Death Cross, a technically bearish pattern.
Last time it was formed though (May 16), it provided the basis for a strong rally that made a new High. Interestingly enough, the price was also coming off a Falling Wedge at the time that successfully broke above its top. In the meantime the 1D RSI was after a Bullish Divergence, essentially a bottoming process. In fact, it was the same formation of that the Falling Wedge before it (November - December 2023) had, that also broke aggressively above its top.
As a result, we have a potential triple bullish signal and as long as the Higher Lows hold, there are high probabilities of seeing the price break above the Wedge and target at least the previous High at 0.20800.
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Signals
NETFLIX Earnings is setting it up for $840.Netflix (NFLX) is already one of the big winners of the earnings season as it announced Q3 results that exceeded expectations and saw the price up by more than +11.00% on Friday. Even technically that is a big win as the rebound came from a Thursday test of the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line), the first in 2 months (since August 14).
The stock has been trading within a Channel Up for a whole year (since the October 18 2023 Low) and now has the perfect fundamental excuse to aim higher. The 1D RSI shows a similar pattern so all previous bottoms with the Channel Up (Aug 05 2024, April 22 2024, January 17 2024, October 18 2023) so either a 3.0 Fibonacci extension or a +25% rise is expected.
This time both happen to be just over $840.00, so we can claim that this is a reasonable target to aim for during this Bullish Leg.
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Gold Uptrend - October 21, 2024A recent Kitco News survey shows a broad sense of optimism about the gold price outlook. The majority of experts (94%) predict further price gains, while only one analyst (6%) sees no significant change.
However, gold’s ability to maintain its value may be challenged by concerns about the US dollar, which could see demand revive as the ‘Trump rally’ is revived. Additionally, with no major US economic data due for release on Monday, the focus will remain on risk sentiment and speeches from several Fed policymakers to provide fresh impetus to gold prices.
When it comes to trading strategies for the start of this week, the priority will be given to buying in view of the Fibonacci extension on the bullish channel as mentioned on D1.
Can EURUSD continue to fall?EUR/USD is currently hovering around 1.0860 after an earlier rally, with stability in the Asian session. Notably, concerns about the possibility of a Federal Reserve rate cut in November have been dismissed, as recent data suggests that the US economy is still recovering.
On the 1D chart, we can clearly see that after the price fell out of the uptrend channel and approached the support level of 1.0800, EUR/USD has reversed again. Currently, the price is hovering around 1.0865 and interacting with the 34 and 89 EMAs, combined with resistance at 1.0960. These factors suggest that the downtrend is still in place. My personal prediction is that EUR/USD is likely to continue falling and may hit a lower low around 1.0700 in the near term.
Now the realization phase is taking shape we are waiting for confirmation with the prospect of strengthening the purpose.
XAUUSD quick pull-back is in order.Gold (XAUUSD) couldn't have gone better on our last call (October 14, see chart below) as after the expected minor pull-back to the 4H MA50 (blue trend-line), it rebounded and is on its way to our 2750 Target:
As however the 4H and 1D RSI got overbought, we expect a short-term pull-back. Especially the 4H RSI, as you see on this chart, is forming a pattern similar to the September 13 short-term peak sequence that was rejected back below the 0.236 Fibonacci retracement level but was contained/ supported above the 4H MA50.
As a result, we can take a quick sell and target 2705 (0.236 Fib). Notice though that the trend will remain bullish medium-term as long as the 4H MA50 holds, in case you don't want to engage into riskier short-term trades such as this one.
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Lingrid | EURUSD shows BEARISH MomentumFX:EURUSD bounced off the resistance level and has been in a bearish trend since the beginning of October, showing three consecutive bearish weeks. It seems probable that the price will pull back toward the resistance zone before continuing its downward trajectory. If the price rolls back against the main trend, it could lead to a classic correction, followed by trend continuation. I expect the market to build a complex pullback toward the resistance area around 1.0900 and the downward trendline, after which we could see a sell-off as the momentum continues to favor the bears. My goal is the support level of around 1.07920
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66K support as the 1st chance to buyMorning folks,
So, the journey to 68-69K target is over. Daily AB-CD is completed, right at the trendline resistance on weekly/daily time frame. This target agrees with intraday XOP of our reverse H&S.
Since BTC has its own driver - D. Trump promises to make America BTC great again - this lets it to move against the wind, together with gold. But drivers are different.
Now we're watching for pullback to 66K support area first. This is the first area where potentially market could turn up again. Next upside target is 70.35K.
GBPJPY H4 - Short Signal GBPJPY H4
We have made a slight adjustment to our trading zone here on GBPJPY. Moving the zone from 195 psychological price, up 60 points to around 195.600. Slight adjustments to accommodate for the recent high press attempts. Supply and resistance no doubt evident on this 195.600 price, stops now covering recent wick high prices of 196.100, with a breathing space of 5-10 points.
We are ranging really nicely here, whilst stops may seem quite large, this is a fast moving pair, and the profit target it also large. This pair has been moving 100’s of points in very quick succession over the past few weeks. The range measures a healthy 200-250 points until support price/TP target.
EURUSD expected to rebound on an oversold 1D RSI.The EURUSD pair made a straight hit on our 1.08350 Target (September 23 idea, see chart below) following the 1.12000 Double Top rejection:
Right now the price sits below the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line), having failed to recover it in the past 2 days. This is however the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level from the last Low, which is where the February 14 2024 correction reversed.
At the same time, the 1D RSI turned oversold last Thursday, which is an even bigger bullish indication. For the past 2 years (since September 27 2022), every time the RSI got oversold (below 30.00), it was a very strong buy signal as the price reversed.
On the February 14 Low it reversed to the 0.618 Fib (blue), so currently our minimum target on this buy opportunity is 1.10550.
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USDJPY moves sideways on positive conditionsAs the US presidential election is approaching, uncertainties will become the main focus of the market. Signs that former President Donald Trump's chances of winning the November election are increasing could contribute to the dollar's overall performance. can keep US interest rates high, thus increasing the appeal of the USD.
In the short term, the Bank of Japan's policy statement on October 31 is a notable factor in the near term for USD/JPY and the Bank of Japan's clear attitude towards the adjustment should be observed.
On the daily chart, OANDA:USDJPY continues to move sideways but in terms of the overall picture, the possibility of price increases still prevails.
The main uptrend is noted by the price channel with key support at EMA21, and as long as USD/JPY remains above EMA21 and within the price channel, it still has a technical upside prospect in the near term.
On the other hand, once USD/JPY breaks the confluence of the upper channel edge along with the 0.50% Fibonacci retracement level it will have room to continue rising with a target then around 151.866 in the short term, more than Fibonacci level 0.618%.
The relative strength index is flat above 50 but has not yet reached the overbought area, showing that there is still room for price growth ahead.
The general assessment, trend and outlook of USD/JPY is technically bullish and notable levels will be listed as follows.
Support: 149.364 – 148.823 – 148.113
Resistance: 150,739 – 151,866
Alikze »» ADA | Upward wave 3 scenario - 12H🔍 Technical analysis: Upward wave 3 scenario - 12H
- In the analysis presented earlier in the weekly time frame, after the correction in the green box, it is currently in the range of the green box, which can continue its upward trend if it stabilizes above the green box.
- In the 12-hour time frame, it is moving in an ascending channel, so far it has reacted positively to the dynamic trigger of the bottom of the channel several times.
- Currently, a motivational wave has been created in the area of the bottom of the channel, which can continue its advance until the middle of the channel and the supply area.
💎 According to the previous zigzag movements, the recent correction in the bottom of the channel has been a response to the AB=CD movement cycle.
⚠️In addition, if the Invalidation LVL area is touched, the ascending scenario is invalidated and must be updated again.⚠️
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BINANCE:ADAUSDT
GBPCAD Sell signal at the top of the Channel Up.The GBPCAD pair has been trading within a Channel Up for more than 1 year (since September 28 2023) and since September 30 2024 has been on Lower Highs. The last time we saw such a trend-line as on the April 16 2024 Lower High, after which a strong short-term rejection took place.
We expect a similar selling sequence to take place that should be contained however above the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line). Our Target is 1.77000 (Support 1).
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Lingrid | BITCOIN Bullish SIGNAL: channel BREAKOUTThe price perfectly fulfilled my last idea. It hit the target zone. BINANCE:BTCUSDT has finally broken and closed above the downward channel that has been forming since May. In the bigger picture, this movement resembles a bullish flag pattern, which is typically a trend continuation pattern. We've seen a similar scenario play out recently in the gold market. After the breakout, it’s normal for the market to lose some momentum, and I anticipate a pullback to retest the channel border and the upward trendline area. Additionally, it's worth noting that the price action is forming an AB=CD pattern, with the completion point expected to be around 72,000. This setup could provide a solid opportunity for further bullish movement. My goal is resistance zone around 72500.
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Gold Price Rises Strongly Thanks to Geopolitics and Fed PolicyOn the chart, gold price has broken out of the resistance level at the $2,700 area and continues to maintain its upward momentum. The upward sloping trend line and the support of the EMA 34 and EMA 89 are further consolidating this trend. The possibility of gold continuing to move towards higher resistance levels is high.
Geopolitical factors from the Middle East, especially the tension between Hezbollah and Israel, are boosting the safe-haven demand for gold. At the same time, the monetary policy from the US Federal Reserve (Fed) with the possibility of cutting interest rates in November is also the main driver for gold to continue to grow.
In general, with a positive technical trend and support from macro news, gold prices are likely to continue to increase in the coming time.
Market News Report - 20 October 2024While it was a mild week, the US dollar was again among the strongest currencies. Other ones include CAD and GBP, while NZD was among the weakest.
Let's dive into what we should expect for each major forex market in our latest fundamental report.
Market Overview
Below is a brief technical and fundamental analysis breakdown for all major currencies.
US dollar (USD)
Short-term outlook: bearish.
Despite a recent 50 basis points (bps) rate cut, the Fed may not need to cut rates as aggressively going forward. This is partly due to positive job numbers and earnings data that exceeded expectations.
Still, the central bank has signalled the potential for two 25 bps drops by the end of this year. Meanwhile, a 50 bps cut has pretty much been priced out, with STIR (short-term interest rate) markets seeing a 14% chance of a hold next month.
The Dixie continues to head north after weeks of ranging around the key support area at 100.157. We have spoken about a potential technically-driven retracement (despite the bearish fundamentals).
Meanwhile, the key resistance is far away at 107.348, which will remain untouched for some time.
Long-term outlook: weak bearish.
The latest strong NFP report has raised expectations for a 25 bps rate cut (instead of 50 bps), which is giving USD a boost in the near term. So, there is no extreme dovish pricing anymore.
While the bearish bias remains, the dollar may gain amid a broad pullback. This idea could prove even more relevant if Donald Trump wins the upcoming election.
Euro (EUR)
Short-term outlook: bearish.
The STIR markets were predictably accurate as the European Central Bank (ECB) cut the interest rate last week.
However, they remain data-dependent on what to do in the future (although they are quite concerned about slow growth).
Also, the past week saw weaker economic data across various European nations. Finally, short-term interest rate markets have indicated an 83% chance of a rate cut in December.
The euro has finally made its bearish intention known on the charts after spending weeks near the resistance at 1.12757. It is close to the key support at 1.07774.
Long-term outlook: bearish.
The latest rate cut and the avoidance of indicating a clear future move for the December meeting are among the key down-trending factors. Furthermore, a threat of a trade tariff with Trump could be negative. Couple this with potential USD strength, and we have a clear bearish bias for the euro.
British pound (GBP)
Short-term outlook: bearish.
The Bank of England (BoE) kept the interest rate steady in its recent meeting. Still, the language indicates they need to be “restrictive for sufficiently long.” Also, the central bank's higher-ups stressed "a gradual need" to cut rates.
As with the ECB, the central bank's current key theme is fighting persistent inflation in the United Kingdom. So, it makes more sense to be dovish than hawkish. Not long ago, Governor Bailey hinted that "aggressive rate cuts" were possible if inflation went lower.
We mentioned that the current retracement may be the start of a more serious bear move. So far, that's what the pound is experiencing. The nearest key support is at 1.26156, while the resistance target is 1.34343.
Long-term outlook: weak bearish.
Sequential rate cuts by the BoE may soon be a reality. Also, weak CPI, labour, or GDP data should be expected to back up the bearish bias. However, the central bank hopes for lower service inflation, which may provide relief.
Another interesting point is the latest CFTC (Commodity Futures Trading Commission) report, showing that GBP longs have been stretched to the upside. So, bullishness should be limited at some point.
Japanese yen (JPY)
Short-term outlook: bullish.
The primary bullish catalyst is the Bank of Japan’s (BoJ) recent decision to hike the interest rate. STIR markets expect a hold at the next meeting but a hike at the start of next year.
Governor Ueda of the BoJ noted that despite domestic economic recovery, recent exchange rate movements have reduced the upside risk of inflation (which has been on an upward trajectory). All of this backs up the potential for a rate hold or hike.
The 139.579 support area is proving quite strong, boosting the yen since mid-September. Still, the major resistance (at 161.950) is too far for traders to worry about.
Long-term outlook: weak bullish.
Lower US Treasury yields are one potential bullish catalyst for the yen (the opposite is true). Inflation pressures and wage growth would also provide upward momentum. We should also consider that the dovish tendencies of other major central banks and worsening US macro conditions are JPY-positive
Still, as a slight downer, near-term inflation risks subsiding (according to the BoJ) reduce the urgency for a rate hiking cycle.
Australian dollar (AUD)
Short-term outlook: weak bullish.
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) kept the interest rate unchanged during the Sept. 25 meeting. They further stated that they "did not explicitly consider rate hikes" for the future, which is a marginally dovish statement.
The Aussie remains sensitive to China’s recent economic woes. However, high iron prices have supported the former.
Finally, recent positive unemployment data gives a base case for a hold in the next RBA interest rate meeting.
After failing to break the 0.69426 resistance level several times, the Aussie has retraced noticeably from this area. Still, this market is bullish and far from the major support level at 0.63484.
Long-term outlook: weak bullish.
While the RBA hasn’t ruled anything out, the central bank isn’t explicitly suggesting rate hikes in the future.
It’s crucial to be data-dependent with the Aussie, especially with core inflation as the RBA's key focus area.
However, the Australian dollar is pro-cyclical, meaning it is exposed to the economies and geopolitics of other countries, especially China.
New Zealand dollar (NZD)
Short-term outlook: bearish.
Unsurprisingly, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZD) cut its interest rate by 50 bps recently and sees further easing ahead. This affirms another cut next month of potentially the same magnitude.
Furthermore, the central bank is confident that inflation will remain in the target zone, adding more impetus to the bearish bias.
Due to the rate cut, the Kiwi has been on a downward spiral, proving the strength of the major resistance level at 0.63696. Conversely, the major support is at 0.58498.
Long-term outlook: bearish.
The central bank's latest dovish stance (where it cut the interest rate) firmly puts the Kiwi in a 'bearish bracket.' They also revised the OCR rates lower and signaled steady winnings in the inflation battle.
Canadian dollar (CAD)
Short-term outlook: bearish.
The Bank of Canada (BoC) recently dropped the interest rate to 4.25%, as anticipated by the markets for some time. Further cuts in the next few meetings are on the cards, with the long-term target being 3%.
Unemployment, weak economic growth, and mortgage stress are the key drivers for this dovishness.
Watch out for the new interest rate for CAD on Wednesday, where a 50 bps cut is predicted (77% chance).
While the short-term fundamental biases of USD and CAD are bearish, CAD is weaker on the charts. USD/CAD is making a steady uptick towards the key resistance at 1.39468, while the key support lies down at 1.33586.
Long-term outlook: weak bearish.
Expectations of a rate cut remain the focal point. Governor Macklem himself stated a while ago that it's reasonable to expect more cuts in the future. Any big misses in upcoming GBP, inflation, and labour data will send CAD lower.
Also, mortgage stress remains a major factor in this interest rate policy, and the BoC will have to cut rates to alleviate it.
Still, encouraging oil prices and general economic data improvement would save the Canadian dollar's blushes.
Swiss franc (CHF)
Short-term outlook: bearish.
STIR markets were, as usual, correct in their 43% chance of a 25 bps rate cut (from 1.25% to 1%) recently. In the Sept. 26 meeting, the Swiss National (SNB) indicated its preparedness to intervene in the FX market and further rate cuts in the coming quarters.
The central bank's new Chair (Schlegel) said they "cannot rule out negative rates." Finally, the September CPI came in weak at 0.8%, against the expected year-on-year 1.1%.
Still, the Swiss franc can strengthen during geopolitical tensions, such as a worsening Middle East crisis.
USD/CHF has just broken out of the range (but only just) discussed in our last few reports. While remaining largely bearish, this market could return closer to the major support level at 0.83326 or climb its way to the higher major resistance level at 0.92244.
Long-term outlook: weak bearish.
The bearish sentiment remains after the last SNB meeting, while inflation is being tamed with lower revisions. We should also remember that the SNB's intervention prevents the appreciation of the Swiss franc.
The new chairman is more keen to cut rates than his predecessor, Jordan. STIR markets are currently pricing a 23% chance of a 50 bps cut at the December meeting.
On the other hand, 'safe haven flows' and geopolitical risks can be positively supportive of the currency. As with other central banks, inflation is a crucial metric in the SNB's policy rates.
Conclusion
In summary:
This week's main high-impact news event is Wednesday's CAD interest rate decision.
Our short and long-term fundamental outlooks remain unchanged from the last few weeks.
As always, hope for the best and prepare for the worst. This report should help you determine your bias toward each currency in the short and long term.
DXY Will Move Lower! Sell!
Here is our detailed technical review for DXY.
Time Frame: 9h
Current Trend: Bearish
Sentiment: Overbought (based on 7-period RSI)
Forecast: Bearish
The market is approaching a key horizontal level 103.495.
Considering the today's price action, probabilities will be high to see a movement to 102.219.
P.S
The term oversold refers to a condition where an asset has traded lower in price and has the potential for a price bounce.
Overbought refers to market scenarios where the instrument is traded considerably higher than its fair value. Overvaluation is caused by market sentiments when there is positive news.
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NZDCAD Is Going Up! Buy!
Here is our detailed technical review for NZDCAD.
Time Frame: 4h
Current Trend: Bullish
Sentiment: Oversold (based on 7-period RSI)
Forecast: Bullish
The price is testing a key support 0.838.
Current market trend & oversold RSI makes me think that buyers will push the price. I will anticipate a bullish movement at least to 0.843 level.
P.S
Please, note that an oversold/overbought condition can last for a long time, and therefore being oversold/overbought doesn't mean a price rally will come soon, or at all.
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NASDAQ 100 Index - Technical Analysis [Long Setup] 🔹 NASDAQ Analysis on 1H chart
- The current Trend is BULLISH
- There is no divergences
- Continuation pattern is present which is bullish flag
🔹 Trade Plan For 1HR
- Entry Level = 20386.3
- Stop Loss = 20312.7
- TP1 = 20458.6
🔹 Risk Management
- First TP is 1:1
🔹 How to Take Trade?
- Only risk 2% of your portfolio
- Take 1% risk entry with 1:1 RR
- Take 1% risk entry with 1:2 RR
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SILVER Swing Resistance! Sell!
Hello,Traders!
SILVER keeps growing in
A strong uptrend and
Silver is locally overbought
So after it hits a horizontal
Resistance of 35.46$ from
Where we will be expecting
A local bearish correction
Sell!
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