WTI OIL on a Bearish Leg but short-term rebound expected.WTI Oil (USOIL) has been trading within a Channel Up pattern that is unfolding its latest Bearish Leg. This Leg just hit the Higher Lows trend-line from the last bottom, which is so far no different than what took place during the previous Bearish Leg on October 18 2024.
The 4H MACD sequences among the two fractals are very similar so, as the October price action did, we expect a marginal breach of the Higher Lows followed by an instant rebound above the 4H MA50 (blue trend-line) and towards the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement level. As a result our short-term Target is $74.80.
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Signals
Postpone shorts for awhileMorning folks,
So, the pullback that we've discussed last time is done and even slightly more extended, in a way of AB=CD .
By our previous plan, somewhere around we should start thinking about the short entry. So, is it time? We think it is not quite yet. And the reason stands with the pattern that now is forming on weekly chart - bullish grabber. This pattern suggests the challenge of the top again in any way.
Does it mean that the bearish scenario, especially our DRPO "Sell" pattern has totally failed. Not quite. The test of the top might be fast, just in a way of spike. In this case bearish setup will stand. But this will be later. For now - we consider no shorts, at least on daily/weekly charts.
On intraday charts, since we have "222" Sell, right, scalp traders could consider shorts for a few hours with very close target - around 103K. But this is not our primary scenario so far.
So, to be absolutely sure with this, let's wait for weekly close price to understand do we really get the grabber on weekly TF or not...
LTCUSD looking for a break-out to $255.Last time we looked at Litecoin (LTCUSD) was 3.5 months ago (October 10 2024, see chart below) when we gave the most timely buy signal, right before it started the strongest rally of its Bull Cycle yet:
Since however the break-out wasn't as aggressive as we initially expected, we have to downgrade our Target. The sequence in terms of 1W RSI is so far similar to the previous Cycles, it's just that the price hasn't responded as aggressively as then.
As you can see, LTC made the expected 1W RSI peak (December 02 2024) and then as the price started to consolidate, it declined, entering a Channel Down. This is no different that the previous RSI Cycle peaks (Dec 28 2020 and May 01 2017).
The difference is that in 2017 the price responded with a huger continuation rally just shy off the 4.0 Fibonacci extension from the consolidation stage, while in 2020 it 'only' managed to reach the 2.5 Fib.
The current pattern appears to have more in common with 2020/21, so we are downgrading our Target to match the current 2.5 Fib at $255.00. It is not impossible to reach $400 by the end of this Cycle (year) but it is best to pursue it only if you can accept elevated risk.
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Lingrid | SUIUSDT potential Trend REVERSAL. Long from SUPPORTBYBIT:SUIUSDT market retraced to the support level before rebounding, having taken liquidity from below the psychological level of 4.00. This move was also accompanied by a fake breakout of the previous week's low, indicating a potential reversal in sentiment. On the daily timeframe, a clear long-tailed bar formed at the support level, signaling rejection and a bullish sign. Looking left, we can see that the price has bounced off this support level twice before highlighting it as an area of interest. I anticipate that the price will continue to rise from this area. My goal is resistance zone around 4.60
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Lingrid | GOLD complex PULLBACK in Trending MARKETAs I mentioned yesterday, the price has completed an ABCD pullback towards the daily low. The market made a fake breakout of Thursday's low before bouncing off the support level. Given that the market made a complex pullback, there is a chance it may have entered a consolidation phase in anticipation of the upcoming FED rate cut decision. Looking back at the period from November 1 to 5, we can observe a similar pattern where the price moved sideways between 2730 and 2750 before dropping ahead of the Fed's decision. However, considering the current bullish momentum, I believe the market may push higher and potentially test the 2800 level this week. My goal is resistance zone around 2770
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NZD-JPY Bearish Breakout! Sell!
Hello, Traders!
NZD-JPY is going down
Now and broke the key
Horizontal level of 87.700
Which is now a resistance
And the breakout is confirmed
So we are locally bearish biased
Now and we will be expecting a
Further bearish move down
Sell!
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NZD-CHF Risky Long! Buy!
Hello,Traders!
NZD-CHF is trading along
The rising support line and
We are already seeing a
Bullish rebound after the
Retest of the rising support
So we are locally bullish
Biased and we will be
Expecting a further
Bullish move up
Buy!
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Trading minute impulseOn the minute timeframe of GBPJPY at the moment we have the completion of the impulse formation. If the price continues to move in the direction of the impulse and the support zones do not allow it to overcome the base of the impulse, it may reach the targets 1 and 2. If the price fails to advance in the direction of the momentum and overcomes the support zone at the base of the momentum, it is very likely that the price will move sideways or against the direction of the momentum.
NVIDIA hit its 1W MA50 after 2 years! One last rally left?NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA) opened significantly lower on Monday following the DeepSeek news on more efficient and lower cost A.I. competition and by doing so, the price hit its 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) for the first time in 2 years, resulting in Tuesday's very strong rebound.
We have to go back to the week of January 23 2023 to see NVDA trading again on the 1W MA50, which became the major Support of the Channel Up pattern that took it off the 2022 Inflation Crisis bottom.
So the question is, does NVIDIA have fuel left in the tank for one more rally? Technically the answer is yes and it can be found on the stock's price action since July 2015. As you can see, the price has gone through 3 similar eras of Bull Cycles through Channel Up patterns and subsequent Bear Cycles of strong corrections that touched the 1W MA200 (orange trend-line) before initiating the new Bull.
From the Bear Cycle bottom to the Bull Cycle's top, NVIDIA took around 1100 days (1162 during the 2015 - 2018 Cycle and 1071 during the 2019 - 2021 Cycle). Assuming the current Cycle will be at least as long as the last one (1071 days), the stock's Top is expected to be around September 2015.
It was in fact around this time during the last Cycle (Feb 2021) when NVIDIA touched again its 1W MA50, resulting into a new rally phase, the last one of the Cycle. This historic price action shows that during its last year, the stock always makes a January - Oct/Nov rally. When the 1W MA50 gets hit again, it is when the new Bear Cycle is confirmed.
As a result, based on this data set, we've entered NVIDIA's final rally of the Cycle, assuming of course it doesn't close a candle below the 1W MA50 and also that the 1M RSI recovers its MA trend-line (yellow), which also happened again during its previous Cycle.
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US10Y will turn bullish on its 1D MA50.The U.S. Government Bonds 10YR Yield (US10Y) has been trading within a Channel Up pattern since the September 17 2024 Low and is currently on its Bearish Leg. This is now approaching the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line), below which the last Higher Low was priced that initiated the Bullish Leg.
With the 1D RSI approaching the same level as then, this is the ideal level to go long again and target 5.000%, which is just below the October 23 2023 Resistance.
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NAS100USD Will Grow! Long!
Here is our detailed technical review for NAS100USD.
Time Frame: 9h
Current Trend: Bullish
Sentiment: Oversold (based on 7-period RSI)
Forecast: Bullish
The price is testing a key support 21,546.0.
Current market trend & oversold RSI makes me think that buyers will push the price. I will anticipate a bullish movement at least to 21,980.8 level.
P.S
The term oversold refers to a condition where an asset has traded lower in price and has the potential for a price bounce.
Overbought refers to market scenarios where the instrument is traded considerably higher than its fair value. Overvaluation is caused by market sentiments when there is positive news.
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USOIL Will Go Higher From Support! Buy!
Take a look at our analysis for USOIL.
Time Frame: 7h
Current Trend: Bullish
Sentiment: Oversold (based on 7-period RSI)
Forecast: Bullish
The market is trading around a solid horizontal structure 73.23.
The above observations make me that the market will inevitably achieve 75.54 level.
P.S
We determine oversold/overbought condition with RSI indicator.
When it drops below 30 - the market is considered to be oversold.
When it bounces above 70 - the market is considered to be overbought.
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EURGBP Will Go Up From Support! Long!
Please, check our technical outlook for EURGBP.
Time Frame: 45m
Current Trend: Bullish
Sentiment: Oversold (based on 7-period RSI)
Forecast: Bullish
The market is testing a major horizontal structure 0.837.
Taking into consideration the structure & trend analysis, I believe that the market will reach 0.839 level soon.
P.S
Overbought describes a period of time where there has been a significant and consistent upward move in price over a period of time without much pullback.
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GBPAUD Will Go Lower! Sell!
Here is our detailed technical review for GBPAUD.
Time Frame: 5h
Current Trend: Bearish
Sentiment: Overbought (based on 7-period RSI)
Forecast: Bearish
The market is approaching a key horizontal level 1.994.
Considering the today's price action, probabilities will be high to see a movement to 1.983.
P.S
Please, note that an oversold/overbought condition can last for a long time, and therefore being oversold/overbought doesn't mean a price rally will come soon, or at all.
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AUD/JPY Bearish Pennant Breakout and 500+ Pips TargetAUD/JPY represents the Australian Dollar against the Japanese Yen in the forex market. The current price is 96.800, with a target price of 86.000, indicating a strong bearish outlook. The expected price drop suggests a potential gain of 500+ pips if the trade moves as predicted. The analysis is based on the bearish pennant pattern, a continuation pattern signaling potential further downside. The price is currently consolidating within the pennant, awaiting a breakout. A bearish breakout would confirm strong selling pressure, leading to a sharp decline. Traders anticipate a drop toward the 86.000 level once the breakout occurs. This setup aligns with technical analysis, where pennants often lead to significant price movements. If the breakout is confirmed, momentum could accelerate the decline. Risk management is crucial, as false breakouts can occur.
US100 Will Fall! Sell!
Please, check our technical outlook for US100.
Time Frame: 9h
Current Trend: Bearish
Sentiment: Overbought (based on 7-period RSI)
Forecast: Bearish
The market is on a crucial zone of supply 21,855.7.
The above-mentioned technicals clearly indicate the dominance of sellers on the market. I recommend shorting the instrument, aiming at 21,446.9 level.
P.S
Overbought describes a period of time where there has been a significant and consistent upward move in price over a period of time without much pullback.
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AUD/USD Resistance Rejection and Bearish OutlookAUD/USD represents the Australian Dollar against the US Dollar in the forex market. The current price is 0.62300, with a target price of 0.60000, indicating a bearish outlook. The expected price drop suggests a potential gain of 200+ pips if the trade moves as anticipated. The analysis is based on the support and resistance pattern, a key concept in technical trading. The price has reached a strong resistance level and is facing rejection, signaling selling pressure. A rejection at resistance often indicates a shift in momentum, leading to a possible downward move. Traders anticipate the price to decline toward the next support level at 0.60000. This setup suggests bearish dominance as long as resistance holds. If the price fails to break above resistance, further downside movement is likely. Proper risk management is crucial, as market conditions can change.