EUR/USD Reversal Imminent? 5 Powerful ReasonsEUR/USD – Tactical Bearish Outlook Ahead of Key Reversal
EUR/USD is approaching a critical inflection point where multiple technical and fundamental signals are aligning to suggest a potential short-term reversal.
📉 1. Price Action & Technical Structure (1W / 1D)
The pair recently completed a clean bullish structure inside an ascending channel, originating from the 1.0600 demand zone and reaching into the key supply area between 1.1400–1.1550.
Recent price behavior indicates:
A weekly candle with a strong upper wick, signaling institutional rejection.
A visible RSI bearish divergence, showing weakening momentum.
The most recent daily candle broke below the channel, suggesting a potential swing high.
Implication: A short-term reversal is likely, targeting the 1.1180 zone, with an extended move potentially reaching the 1.1050–1.1000 area.
🧠 2. COT Data – Institutional Positioning
USD Index:
Non-Commercials increased longs (+823) and slightly increased shorts (+363) — net bias still bullish USD.
Commercials also added to longs, further confirming institutional accumulation.
→ USD strength building.
EUR Futures:
Non-Commercials reduced longs (-1,716) and added shorts (+6,737).
The net long position in EUR continues to weaken.
→ Increasing risk of EUR retracement.
📅 3. Seasonality – EUR/USD in June
EUR/USD tends to be neutral to bearish in June.
The 5- and 10-year averages show consistent early-month declines, supporting a short bias in the first two weeks.
📊 4. Retail Sentiment
Sentiment is currently evenly split (50/50).
However, more volume is positioned long — a potential contrarian signal.
→ A break in this balance may trigger volatility and directionality.
🧭 5. Macro Context
Eurozone is facing stagnation, with falling inflation and weak growth.
U.S. data remains stronger, supporting the Fed’s “higher for longer” narrative.
→ This divergence favors a stronger USD in the near term.
✅ Trading Outlook
📉 Current Bias: Bearish (corrective)
📌 Short-Term Target: 1.1180
📌 Mid-Term Target: 1.1050–1.1000
❌ Invalidation: Weekly close above 1.1460
🎯 Strategy: Look for intraday rejection confirmations and sell pullbacks, in alignment with HTF structure and institutional flows.
Signals
USD/CHF Setup Breaking Down: Don’t Get Caught Long This TrapUSD/CHF is currently trading at a critical technical and macro-structural juncture. Price is hovering within the weekly support area between 0.8050 and 0.8200, a zone that has historically triggered significant bullish reactions. However, the latest weekly candle closed below the psychological 0.8200 level, showing a clear rejection of upper resistance and signaling a lack of buying strength on the U.S. dollar side. This weak closure undermines the bullish structure and opens the door for a potential continuation of the downtrend—especially if price breaks below the 0.8150 mark on the daily or H4 timeframe.
From a seasonal standpoint, June has historically been a bearish month for USD/CHF. Monthly average returns over the past 20, 15, 10, and 5 years confirm steady downside pressure on the dollar against the Swiss franc. Only the 2-year average shows a slight positive bias, but it remains an outlier against the broader seasonal trend. This supports the idea that the recent weakness is not only technical but also cyclical in nature.
The Commitment of Traders (COT) report reinforces this bearish view. On the Swiss franc side, commercial traders (typically the most informed and hedging-oriented participants) are heavily net long, while non-commercial traders (speculators) remain significantly net short. This imbalance is often seen around reversal points and may indicate rising CHF strength. On the U.S. dollar side, positioning is far more balanced—the Dollar Index COT shows a neutral stance, with non-commercials slightly net long but without any dominant momentum. This confirms there’s currently no structural strength behind the dollar to justify a meaningful rebound in USD/CHF.
Lastly, retail sentiment provides a classic contrarian signal: over 90% of retail traders are long on USD/CHF, with only 10% short. This extreme imbalance typically occurs ahead of bearish breakdowns, as institutional players tend to fade overcrowded retail positions.
In conclusion, USD/CHF remains vulnerable to further downside. The weekly price action is weak, seasonal trends are dollar-negative, COT positioning favors CHF strength, and retail sentiment is extremely long-biased. All factors align toward a likely bearish continuation, with technical targets in the 0.8080–0.8050 range. The only alternative scenario would require a strong H4/H1 bullish reaction with a reclaim of 0.8220—but at this stage, that appears unlikely without a major macro catalyst.
Bitcoin at a Crossroads: 110k RejectionAfter the powerful rally that began in the last quarter of 2024, Bitcoin is now at a critical market juncture. The price has once again reached the 106,000–110,000 USD zone, an area that already showed strong signs of distribution back in February and March 2025. This isn’t just a typical resistance level—it’s a psychologically loaded zone, marked by previous highs and repeated selling pressure.
In May, the monthly candle revealed a clear rejection from this zone: a prominent upper wick and a bearish body, signaling the bulls' struggle to sustain new highs. This behavior suggests the beginning of a profit-taking phase or, more likely, a medium-term consolidation.
The picture becomes even more complex when we look at the COT Report dated May 27, 2025. Non-commercial institutional traders—speculative funds, hedge funds, and portfolio managers—have significantly increased their short positions, now exceeding 26,800 contracts. Meanwhile, long positions are hovering around 24,500, resulting in a net bearish exposure. The message is clear: smart money isn’t buying the breakout—it's selling into it.
Seasonality analysis reinforces this narrative. Historically, June tends to be a weak month for Bitcoin, often followed by renewed strength in the next quarter. The 2025 seasonal curve has mirrored the bullish pattern of 2021 up to May, but now—consistent with historical patterns—is showing signs of slowing. This supports the idea that the market might need a breather before potentially rallying again in Q3.
From a technical standpoint, the key levels are well defined. The 95,000–97,000 USD area is the first dynamic support zone, where the price might find short-term relief. However, the more significant support lies between 82,000 and 85,000 USD—this is the origin of the current rally and aligns with the old breakout structure. A return to this level would represent a healthy and natural correction within a still structurally bullish long-term context.
In summary, the current outlook calls for caution. Momentum is fading, seasonality is unfavorable, and institutional players are trimming long exposure while adding to shorts. Until the price can consolidate above 110,500 USD, the dominant scenario remains a corrective pullback, with interim targets at 95k and potential drops toward the 85k zone.
However, if the market surprises with a strong weekly close above the highs, it could pave the way for a new leg up toward the 125,000–135,000 USD range—potentially fueled by macro catalysts such as ETF inflows, Fed narratives, or broader adoption.
EUR/USD - 4H Analysis - High Probability Trade Setup🔍 Bias: Bullish continuation (Wave 5 setup)
📌 Key Confluences:
Wave (4) is retracing into a key demand zone with strong volume support.
Price is approaching the 71% Fibonacci retracement, a proven institutional entry level.
Ichimoku cloud is holding as dynamic support.
Wave (5) projection targets 1.1550–1.1600 zone (Swing Range).
🎯 Trade Idea:
Buy EUR/USD between 1.1280 – 1.1320
Stop Loss: Below 1.1220 (invalidates wave count)
Take Profit: 1.1550 (1:3+ RR)
⚠️ Risk Note: Confirmation via bullish engulfing candle or volume spike would increase the entry's conviction.
This setup offers strong confluence for a wave 5 rally, making it a high-probability long trade toward the upper swing range.
Follow along for more setups
Gold Update – Will Buyers Drive It to 3,485 USD?Great to see all traders again in today’s gold price discussion at the end of the trading session. LyngridTrading here!
Yesterday, gold dropped sharply, with the metal falling by 600 pips during the US session. However, by this morning, it quickly regained its upward momentum, supported by buying pressure around the 3,340 USD support zone.
Specifically, gold regained its momentum after the latest data on the US labor market was just released, showing that the number of initial state unemployment claims rose to 247,000 (seasonally adjusted) by the end of May 2025, according to the announcement from the U.S. Department of Labor. This figure is higher than expected, reflecting a weakening US labor market, which has increased expectations that the Fed will soon cut interest rates to support the economy.
From a technical perspective, as previously analyzed, gold holds a strong short-term technical advantage from the support zone around 3,340 USD. If buying pressure continues, there will be nothing stopping it from rising to 3,485 USD, in line with the idea scheduled at the same time yesterday.
XAUUSD: Bullish Structure Still Intact?Dear friends,
To begin this post, I want you to understand why I want to connect with the global TradingView community. Simply put, I want to share the value I have and listen to more perspectives from all of you. This helps build a stronger, more united community.
And what about you. What do you think of OANDA:XAUUSD hovering around 3,370 USD?
Let’s explore it together!
OANDA:XAUUSD is moving within a very clear ascending channel, with price action consistently respecting both the upper and lower boundaries. This indicates that the bullish structure is still being maintained and the buyers remain in control. The recent upward momentum further reinforces the belief that this trend could continue.
The price is currently approaching a key support zone, marked by the lower boundary of the channel and a previous demand area. If this zone holds, it could offer a strong re-entry opportunity for buyers. The projected bullish target is 3,485 USD, which aligns with the upper boundary of the channel and represents a reasonable upside objective. This is the area I will closely monitor to find a trend-following buy entry, as long as bullish momentum remains intact.
Of course, I do not dismiss the opposite scenario. Failure to hold this dynamic support may suggest that bullish momentum is weakening and could shift the short-term trend to neutral or bearish.
Let me know your thoughts or if you see it differently!
TESLA RECOVERY AHEAD|LONG|
✅TESLA lost more than 25%
On the Elon VS Trump fallout
In less than a week which is
Seen by many as an excellent
Opportunity to add TESLA stocks
To their portfolios with a great
Discount which is why we are
Already seeing a nice rebound
From the wide strong horizontal
Support just above 270$ level
And as we are locally bullish
Biased we will be expecting
Further growth on Monday
LONG🚀
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AMAZON Resistance Ahead! Sell!
Hello,Traders!
AMAZON keeps gaining
Bullish momentum so we
Are bullish biased mid-term
However it will soon hit a
Horizontal resistance of 219.00$
From where we will be expecting
A local bearish correction
Sell!
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Check out other forecasts below too!
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GBP-JPY Free Signal! Sell!
Hello,Traders!
GBP-JPY made a retest of
The strong horizontal resistance
Of 196.260 and the pair seems
To be locally overbought
So we will go short with
The Take Profit of 195.525
And the Stop Loss of 196.455
Sell!
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GBP_USD SWING BREAKOUT|SHORT|
✅GBP_USD was trading in an
Uptrend along the rising support
But now this support is broken
And the breakout is confirmed
So we are bearish biased
And we will be expecting a
Further bearish move down
SHORT🔥
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GBP_JPY WILL FALL|SHORT|
✅GBP_JPY went up sharply
But a strong resistance level was hit at 196.400
Thus I am expecting a pullback
And a move down towards the target of 195.671
SHORT🔥
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GBP-USD Local Long! Buy!
Hello,Traders!
GBP-USD made a bearish
Breakout of the rising support
So we are bearish biased mid-term
But locally the pair will soon
Hit a horizontal support
So we will be expecting a
Rebound and a local move up
Buy!
Comment and subscribe to help us grow!
Check out other forecasts below too!
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US30: Target Is Up! Long!
My dear friends,
Today we will analyse US30 together☺️
The price is near a wide key level
and the pair is approaching a significant decision level of 42.596.9 Therefore, a strong bullish reaction here could determine the next move up.We will watch for a confirmation candle, and then target the next key level of 42.690.5. Recommend Stop-loss is beyond the current level.
❤️Sending you lots of Love and Hugs❤️
US30 Will Move Lower! Short!
Here is our detailed technical review for US30.
Time Frame: 12h
Current Trend: Bearish
Sentiment: Overbought (based on 7-period RSI)
Forecast: Bearish
The market is approaching a significant resistance area 42,464.8.
Due to the fact that we see a positive bearish reaction from the underlined area, I strongly believe that sellers will manage to push the price all the way down to 41,145.2 level.
P.S
The term oversold refers to a condition where an asset has traded lower in price and has the potential for a price bounce.
Overbought refers to market scenarios where the instrument is traded considerably higher than its fair value. Overvaluation is caused by market sentiments when there is positive news.
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
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GOLD Is Bearish! Sell!
Take a look at our analysis for GOLD.
Time Frame: 9h
Current Trend: Bearish
Sentiment: Overbought (based on 7-period RSI)
Forecast: Bearish
The market is on a crucial zone of supply 3,360.39.
The above-mentioned technicals clearly indicate the dominance of sellers on the market. I recommend shorting the instrument, aiming at 3,295.58 level.
P.S
We determine oversold/overbought condition with RSI indicator.
When it drops below 30 - the market is considered to be oversold.
When it bounces above 70 - the market is considered to be overbought.
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NZDJPY Is Going Up! Long!
Here is our detailed technical review for NZDJPY.
Time Frame: 12h
Current Trend: Bullish
Sentiment: Oversold (based on 7-period RSI)
Forecast: Bullish
The market is trading around a solid horizontal structure 86.992.
The above observations make me that the market will inevitably achieve 88.309 level.
P.S
Please, note that an oversold/overbought condition can last for a long time, and therefore being oversold/overbought doesn't mean a price rally will come soon, or at all.
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EURJPY Be ready to sell soon.Last time we looked at the EURJPY pair (February 26, see chart below), we gave a clear buy signal that wasted no time hitting straight our 162.250 Target:
With the Lower Highs trend-line now broken, a new pattern has emerged and that's a (blue) Channel Up. The current Bullish Leg is headed straight to the 8-month Resistance Zone, so we will be turning bearish there, targeting the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) at 162.250.
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TESLA Is it a good buy after the Trump - Musk clash?Tesla (TSLA) lost $150 billion yesterday, closing the session down by -14%, following President Trump's public feud with its CEO Elon Musk. Trump responded to Musk' criticism over the new tax bill, claiming that Musk was upset because the bill takes away tax benefits for electric vehicle purchases.
The obvious question that arises for investors is this: Is Tesla still a buy?
Quick answer? Yes. And once the dust from the fundamentals/ news settles, the technical patterns will prevail.
The long-term pattern since the January 03 2023 bottom has been a Channel Up. The recent April 07 2025 Low has been a Higher Low on this pattern as, even though it didn't touch the Channel's bottom, it did triple bottom on the 0.236 Fibonacci Channel retracement level.
This kick-started the new Bullish Leg of the pattern and yesterday's correction may be nothing more than the start of a Bull Flag formation, similar to those that took place half-way through both previous Bullish Legs.
You can even see how similar the 1W RSI patterns are among the 3 fractals, which have been Accumulation Phases before the start of the 2nd part of the Bullish Leg.
Even though the 1.618 Fibonacci extension is a technical possibility, we can settle for a $600 Target, which would fulfil the conditions of keeping the price action within the Channel Up by the end of the year.
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SILVER: Move Down Expected! Short!
My dear friends,
Today we will analyse SILVER together☺️
The recent price action suggests a shift in mid-term momentum. A break below the current local range around 36.190 will confirm the new direction downwards with the target being the next key level of 35.901.and a reconvened placement of a stop-loss beyond the range.
❤️Sending you lots of Love and Hugs❤️
GOLD: Strong Growth Ahead! Long!
My dear friends,
Today we will analyse GOLD together☺️
The in-trend continuation seems likely as the current long-term trend appears to be strong, and price is holding above a key level of 3,358.70 So a bullish continuation seems plausible, targeting the next high. We should enter on confirmation, and place a stop-loss beyond the recent swing level.
❤️Sending you lots of Love and Hugs❤️
EURUSD: Local Bearish Bias! Short!
My dear friends,
Today we will analyse EURUSD together☺️
The market is at an inflection zone and price has now reached an area around 1.14182 where previous reversals or breakouts have occurred.And a price reaction that we are seeing on multiple timeframes here could signal the next move down so we can enter on confirmation, and target the next key level of 1.14050..Stop-loss is recommended beyond the inflection zone.
❤️Sending you lots of Love and Hugs❤️
BITCOIN Log Channel and Waves show we're nowhere near the top.This is Bitcoin (BTCUSD) on its Logarithmic Growth Channel with the use of Rainbow Waves on it. This model accounts for the Halvings (light blue vertical lines) and with the use of Fibonacci Time extensions, it estimates the potential Cycle Bottoms (green vertical lines) and Tops (red vertical lines) within the Parabolic Growth Curve.
A fair value is estimated around the purple trend-line (zone top and bottom) as well as a maximum (red trend-line) and minimum (light blue trend-line) wave.
Interestingly enough, BTC hit that minimum wave trend-line on the April 07 2025 Low for the first time since June 17 2017, making it the strongest buy signal we could get at this stage of the Cycle.
So based on all the above, Bitcoin is nowhere near the top of its Cycle and this isn't just because it hasn't yet touched the next red vertical line (Time Fib 4.382) which is on October 27 2025, but also because it is currently trading below the Fair Value Zone (even below its bottom half).
Both previous Cycles topped considerably above that Fair Value Zone and almost hit the maximum wave. Even if by October 27 2025, Bitcoin 'only' hits the purple (Fair Value) trend-line, it would have reached $135000 and if earlier it can even hit $145000. That is the bare minimum based on that model. If it hits the top of the Fair Value Zone by October 27, then we can see prices as high as $180000 even.
Which price do you think we are more likely to see? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
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Lingrid | GOLD trend Continuation Targets April High RetestOANDA:XAUUSD has reclaimed the 3,350 level following a successful retest of the upward trendline, sustaining a bullish channel structure. After multiple breakouts and a clean consolidation above previous resistance, price is setting up for a potential move toward the 3,500 mark. A pullback and bounce near 3,330 would reinforce this bullish continuation scenario.
📈 Key Levels
Buy zone: 3,338–3,345
Buy trigger: strong bullish candle above 3,365
Target: 3,500
Sell trigger: break below 3,338 with volume
💡 Risks
Rejection near 3,365 could delay breakout
Breakdown below 3,338 weakens bullish trend
Consolidation flattening may reduce momentum burst potential
Traders, if you liked this idea or if you have your own opinion about it, write in the comments. I will be glad 👩💻