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#XAUUSDFed exposed: Probability of raising interest rates next year up to 40%? 🔻 The Fed reduced interest rates by 0.25% to 4.25%-4.50%, but the market perceived this as a "hawkish" move. 🔻 The market reacted strongly: USD soared, stocks fell sharply, US bond yields increased. 🔻 The Fed's economic forecast is controversial when it increases the 2025 inflation forecast to 2.5% and reduces the number of interest rate cuts in 2024 to two. 🔻 Some economists, like Apollo Global Management's Torsten Slok, predict a 40% probability of the Fed raising interest rates by 2025. 🔻 The upcoming Trump administration's trade and tax policies could push inflation higher, forcing the Fed to consider raising interest rates sooner, possibly as soon as the second quarter of 2025. 🔻 Chairman Powell did not rule out the possibility of raising interest rates, emphasizing the need to maintain a flexible stance in the face of
OANDA:XAUUSD
by SadarExplore
GOLD - Should I sell?Brian, hello everyone! Gold prices “plunged” and fell more than 2% to a one-month low in mid-week trading after the Fed decided to cut interest rates as expected, but noted that it would slow the pace of borrowing cost reductions in the near term. The Fed’s stance boosted the USD and bond yields. Based on the performance of gold on the 4-hour time frame, along with indicators from EMA and RSI, a bearish trend is expected in the coming period. With the current unfavorable situation for gold, the price of gold is likely to reach $2,537 in the near future.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by Trader-Briannnn
GBPUSD - continue its downward trendDear Investors, The GBP/USD pair has rebounded after losing over 1% following the Federal Reserve's aggressive rate cut on Wednesday, currently trading around 1.2590 during Thursday's Asian session. From a technical perspective, this recovery is likely to be short-lived, stemming from the strong support zone at 1.2567, rather than signaling a sustained rebound. Sellers could easily regain control, especially after breaking below the key level of 1.2645. Moreover, the 34-period EMA shows no signs of a significant reversal, suggesting the price might accelerate towards the next support level at 1.2486. Attention remains on the immediate resistance at 1.2615, as any failure to hold this level could lead to an earlier-than-expected decline. Stay alert and plan accordingly!
Short
by Trader-Briannnn
BTCUSDT: Consolidating below key resistance. What next?Hello, dear friends! BTC/USDT is currently on a bearish trajectory, with the price hovering around $101,200. This decline follows comments from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell opposing the establishment of a national bitcoin reserve fund. From a theoretical perspective, the outlook suggests further downside potential, as the price is currently near critical resistance levels around the 0.618 and 0.5 Fibonacci retracements, while the descending trendline remains intact. It is anticipated that the decline could extend to the designated support zones. Wishing you all profitable trades ahead!
Short
by Trader-Briannnn
Tesla (TSLA): Profits Taken, Pullback AnticipatedWhat a rise by NASDAQ:TSLA ! The stock has now reached the targeted wave 3 zone, and we might see some asset rotation out of Tesla into underperforming stocks that could attract renewed attention and capital inflows. Many traders have booked significant profits on NASDAQ:TSLA , and larger players are likely to do the same in the coming sessions. As usual, our focus remains on building a new position during a pullback. We are targeting the 38.2%–50% Fibonacci retracement levels, which should provide sufficient support for another push higher, potentially toward $585 or more. A key level to watch is the old all-time high. Should bulls defend it effectively, waiting for an entry at $371.35 might leave us sidelined. However, we see no reason to force or rush an entry into NASDAQ:TSLA at the moment. Patience remains critical as we wait for the market to come to us.
NASDAQ:TSLALong
by freeguy_by_wmc
After the Fed’s Rate Cut: Gold’s Price Action and What’s NextYesterday was another wildly volatile day for OANDA:XAUUSD , with prices dropping approximately 600 pips following the Fed's rate cut. After breaking below the 2645-2650 confluence support on Tuesday, the market entered a day of consolidation with a tight trading range. However, the calm didn’t last long... Yesterday's sharp decline took prices below the 2610-2615 technical support zone and even breached the critical 2600 level. Overnight, Gold rebounded back above 2600, but in my opinion, this recovery is likely a normal retracement and does not signal a bottom for the yellow metal. For bears, the sell zone begins at 2620 and extends slightly past 2630, accounting for the heightened volatility. This area presents an opportunity to look for short entries. The initial target for this move would be yesterday's low, but I wouldn’t be surprised to see Gold drop further toward the 2525 key support level in the near future. As long as prices remain below the 2650-2660 resistance range, the outlook for XauUsd stays firmly bearish .
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by Mihai_Iacob
US10Y going lower as Fed has no choice but to continue cutting.More than 1 year ago (November 7 2023, see chart below), we made a bold (for the time being) call on the U.S. Government Bonds 10YR Yield (US10Y), as against the prevailing market sentiment we gave a sell signal, right after what turned out to be a top: Today we revisit this pattern, following yesterday's Rate Cut by the Fed primarily because of their statements that instead of 4, they will only proceed to 2 more cuts in 2025. We believe this to be false and expect the Fed to quickly resume the previous outlook. The chart shows that the 1M RSI Lower Highs have are consistent with the previous Bearish Reversal on the US10Y price, similar to 2006 - 2007. We are expecting to hit the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement level at 2.100%, as the Fed's Cut Cycle will be accelerated in order to meet within 12-18 months their 2% inflation target and stabilize. For better illustration we have plotted also the U.S. Interest Rate (red trend-line), where you can clearly see that the fractal we compare to today, is right before cuts started in August 2007. Also it is a natural consequence for the US10Y to fall when rate cut cycles start, evident also in June 2019, December 2000, May 1995, May 1989 September 1984, May 1981 etc. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
TVC:US10YShort
by TradingShot
12
SPX500 Will Go Up! Long! Take a look at our analysis for SPX500. Time Frame: 9h Current Trend: Bullish Sentiment: Oversold (based on 7-period RSI) Forecast: Bullish The market is approaching a significant support area 5,900.98. The underlined horizontal cluster clearly indicates a highly probable bullish movement with target 5,967.79 level. P.S We determine oversold/overbought condition with RSI indicator. When it drops below 30 - the market is considered to be oversold. When it bounces above 70 - the market is considered to be overbought. Like and subscribe and comment my ideas if you enjoy them!
FX:SPX500Long
by SignalProvider
2