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GOLD rebound and limited, trading week with ChristmasUS economic data shows inflation is slowing. Supported by the weakening of the TVC:DXY and US Treasury bond interest rates, OANDA:XAUUSD continued to increase on Friday (December 18). However, the Fed's hawkish interest rate outlook caused gold prices to fall 0.9% last week. The Federal Reserve's headline inflation index (PCE) showed price pressures eased last month. According to data released by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), the core personal consumption expenditures (PCE) index, excluding food and energy prices, increased by 0.1% over the previous month. in November, slower than the 0.3% increase in October. The increase was slightly lower than economists' expectations of 0.2%. On a yearly basis, core PCE rose 2.8%, matching the increase in October and below Wall Street expectations of 2.9%. Overall PCE increased 2.4% year-over-year, up from 2.3% in October. Earlier this month, the core Consumer Price Index (CPI), which excludes food and gas prices, showed prices rose 3.3% year-on-year in November, marking the fourth straight month of increases. Meanwhile, the core Producer Price Index (PPI), which tracks price changes across companies, showed prices rose 3.4% year-on-year in November. The increase was higher October's 3.1% increase also exceeded economists' expectations of 3.2%. At a press conference following Wednesday's interest rate decision, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell said the final phase of the Fed's response to inflation will be more difficult than initially expected. “We were forecasting inflation at the end of the year, but as we got closer to the end of the year, the forecast was off a little bit,” Powell said. “I would say that's probably the biggest factor, inflation is once again missing expectations.” So far this year, inflation has slowed but remains above the Fed's 2% target, pressured by recent unexpectedly hot monthly "core" price growth data. According to the Fed's latest Summary of Economic Projections (SEP), the Fed expects core inflation to peak at 2.5% next year, up from a forecast of 2.2% in September and falling to 2.0%. 2% in 2026 and 2027 to 2.0%. Higher inflation expectations, coupled with a slower pace of interest rate cuts next year, have weighed on markets. On the other hand, the election of Donald Trump as the next president has added to this uncertainty, with some economists suggesting that the United States could face another surge in inflation if Trump makes his move. True to his campaign promises. Policies proposed by Trump such as imposing high tariffs on imported goods, cutting taxes on businesses and restricting immigration could have an inflationary effect. These policies further complicate the Fed's future interest rate path. Data and events this week The market will also welcome the Christmas holiday this week, traders will focus on important events such as "where to get money to buy gifts for bears, where to go so as not to eat dog food, or open the door." Is it a pan or a greeting, honey,... I don't know but I wish you all a happy Christmas and good health hehe." However, some important economic data will be released. Economic data to watch out for this week Monday: US consumer confidence Tuesday: US sustainable goods, US new home sales Wednesday: Christmas break Thursday: US weekly unemployment claims Analysis of technical prospects for OANDA:XAUUSD Gold recovered from the 0.786% Fibonacci level during the weekend trading session, but the recovery is also limited after testing the target resistance level noted by readers in the previous issue at the confluence of the upper edge. price channel and Fibonacci level 0.618%. Currently, the closing position still supports the possibility of a technical bearish price for gold, with the price channel as the main trend price channel, resistance from Fibonacci 0.618% and pressure at Ema21. On the other hand, the Relative Strength Index is still operating below the 50 level, quite far from the oversold area, which shows that there is still quite a lot of room for price decline ahead. As long as gold remains below EMA21, within price channel, it still has a bearish technical outlook and the notable points are listed below. Support: 2,591 – 2,552 – 2,538USD Resistance: 2,634 – 2,656USD SELL XAUUSD PRICE 2646 - 2644⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2650 →Take Profit 1 2639 ↨ →Take Profit 2 2634 BUY XAUUSD PRICE 2604 - 2606⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2600 →Take Profit 1 2611 ↨ →Take Profit 2 2616
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Xayah_trading
Fed Rate Expectations: How Are They Formed?Changes in the Federal Reserve's funds rate have far-reaching implications for nearly all existing assets. When the rate increases amidst moderate inflation, the U.S. dollar TVC:DXY typically strengthens, attracting capital from both the cryptocurrency and stock markets. Conversely, if inflation is rising rapidly and the Fed is compelled to aggressively raise rates to stabilize the economy, investors often interpret this as a sign of underlying trouble, prompting them to shift their assets into TVC:GOLD . However, it is essential to recognize that the Fed’s decisions are reactions to prevailing economic conditions. More crucially, market expectations regarding the Fed's rate movements—shaped by collective sentiment—play a significant role in shaping economic outcomes. This post explores the factors that form these expectations. 📍 Key Indicators Influencing Expectations for the Fed Funds Rate The market tends to respond significantly only when actual changes in the funds rate diverge from expectations. If adjustments align with market forecasts, the exchange rate of the U.S. dollar typically remains stable. Thus, accurately predicting the Fed's actions is vital for investors and traders. 1. Labor Market Dynamics The labor market is a primary focus for the Fed. The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) releases employment reports every Friday, providing insight into unemployment rates. The Fed maintains a forecast range for acceptable unemployment levels—generally between 4.2% and 4.8%—indicating economic balance. An uptick in unemployment signals economic weakness, often prompting a reduction in the funds rate. Conversely, a decline in unemployment raises concerns about potential economic overheating, which could lead to tighter monetary policy. 2. Inflation Trends The Fed’s target inflation rate is set at 2%. As inflation rises, the Fed typically increases the funds rate to curb borrowing. This was clearly illustrated during the 2022-2023 period, where persistent inflation above 8% led to a series of rate hikes. In contrast, deflation would necessitate maintaining ultra-low funds rates. Additional indicators to monitor include wage trends, inflation expectations, and the consumer price index (CPI). 3. Overall Economic Health Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is a key indicator of economic health. Although GDP data is often retrospective, it reflects long-term economic trends. A decline in GDP may prompt the Fed to adopt stimulative monetary policies. Analysts often utilize the GDPNow model, developed by the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, to obtain real-time estimates of U.S. GDP growth. 4. Treasury Yield Curve The yield curve illustrates the relationship between bond yields of different maturities from the same issuer. A flattening yield curve typically signals economic slowdown, while long-term bonds yielding less than short-term bonds can foreshadow a recession. The Fed could respond to such signs by adjusting funds rates higher depending on the crisis’s underlying causes. 5. Global Economic Influences Economic conditions in other major economies, particularly China and the European Union, can indirectly impact the U.S. economy due to deep economic ties. Monitoring central bank funds rates and the Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) in these regions is essential. 6. The Dollar’s Exchange Rate Against Key Currencies A strong U.S. dollar can adversely affect American exporters. If other central banks, such as the Bank of Japan or the European Central Bank, adopt accommodative monetary policies, the Fed may also consider lowering rates to avoid a detrimental trade balance caused by a strengthening dollar. 7. Market Expectations Investor sentiment creates a feedback loop. With over 50% of Americans investing in equities, a hawkish stance on funds rates tends to increase bond yields and instigate a sell-off in securities, negatively impacting overall economic wealth. Investors’ anticipation of potential rate cuts can pressure the Fed to align with these expectations. 8. Communication from Fed Officials The rhetoric from Fed officials often hints at future monetary policy, providing insights into rate expectations based on their communications. Numerous indicators, including analysts’ forecasts and futures trading on key rates, contribute to understanding the Fed's policies. Due to the complexity of these influencing factors, relying solely on fundamental analysis for trading is not advisable for beginners. 📍 Conclusion Forecasting changes in the Fed's funds rate often begins with the first clear signals about the Fed's potential actions. The primary motivations guiding the Fed are the control of inflation and the management of unemployment—making these two indicators crucial for predictions regarding monetary policy. Additionally, it is essential to consider fundamental factors impacting other major currencies. Traders, If you liked this educational post🎓, give it a boost 🚀 and drop a comment 📣
Education
by Lingrid
3
PNUTUSDT → Consolidating for a Potential Explosive RallyBINANCE:PNUTUSDT following a sharp decline, PNUT is showing signs of a powerful comeback. The chart reveals a classic reversal pattern, indicating the potential for a bullish surge. While Bitcoin remains flat, PNUT is taking center stage with a double bottom formation, signaling strength and an entry into the rally phase. The next big challenge? The resistance zone at 0.75. Breaking above this level and solidifying support could be the launchpad for an impressive ascent. Primary target is 1.0, next targets are 1.15, 1.35.
Long
by Bentradegold
Cosmos Atom usdt Daily analysis Time frame daily Risk rewards ratio =2👈👈👌 First target 9.2$🥇 Second target 13$🥈 According to the daily chart we see, today's analysis is based on Elliott waves. The bullish impulse wave ( 1-5 ) has ended ↗️and the 3-point retracement wave or correction wave has also ended. ↘️ Based on the analysis of experts and what we see and hear today, the possibility of the alt-season starting is very high. Based on this, I have chosen two targets, which are the $9 and $13 ranges, respectively. Which are wise targets and will bring very good profits to traders.👌🎯
Long
by Habib-Tafazoli
GOLD MARKET ANALYSIS AND COMMENTARY - [Dec 22 - Dec 27]This week, OANDA:XAUUSD fell quite sharply from 2,664 USD/oz to 2,582 USD/oz, then recovered to 2,631 USD/oz and closed the week at 2,622 USD/oz. The reason gold prices dropped sharply this week is because the FED cut interest rates by another 0.25% as predicted. However, what caused disappointed investors to sell off gold was because the Fed chairman said he would only cut interest rates two more times in 2025. Previously, in September 2024, the FED predicted four more cuts. interest rate next year. In the same context, the US personal consumption expenditure (PCE) index in November increased by 2.8% over the same period last year, unchanged compared to October, but still much higher than the target. of the Fed is 2%. This also strengthens the possibility that the FED will reduce the current monetary easing cycle. Furthermore, Donald Trump is about to take office as US President for his second term. If Mr. Trump implements a fiscal expansion policy and sharply increases tariffs with America's trading partners, it will significantly reduce the country's trade deficit, meaning the supply of USD will decrease sharply, pushing the currency This increases, thereby negatively affecting gold prices. Furthermore, Mr. Trump's tax policy also increases inflation, forcing the Fed to delay cutting interest rates, or even raise interest rates again if inflation skyrockets. Next week's gold price is likely to be torn between FED's monetary policy and geopolitical instability. However, next week, most international investors will be on holiday for Christmas and New Year 2025, so gold trading volume will decrease sharply, causing gold prices next week to only fluctuate within a narrow range. 📌From a technical perspective, next week's gold price will likely continue to adjust and accumulate. Accordingly, if next week's gold price still trades above the threshold of 2,582 USD/oz, it will continue to move sideways within the range of 2,585 - 2,665 USD/oz before the holiday. On the contrary, if next week's gold price is pushed below 2,582 USD/oz, there is a risk of falling to 2,530 USD/oz. Notable technical levels are listed below. Support: 2,591 – 2,552 – 2,538USD Resistance: 2,623 – 2,634 – 2,656USD SELL XAUUSD PRICE 2666 - 2664⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2670 BUY XAUUSD PRICE 2529 - 2531⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2525
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Xayah_trading
BTCUSDT On The way to 120KBTCUSDT, Bitcoin-based cryptocurrency, is currently trading at $97,000. The target price for BTCUSDT is $120,000, indicating significant growth potential. This represents a potential gain of over 30%. The coin's price movement is guided by a support and resistance pattern. BTCUSDT's growth potential is significant, driven by increasing adoption and demand. Investors can capitalize on this opportunity for substantial returns. However, market volatility and risks should be carefully considered. A well-informed investment decision can help maximize gains and minimize losses. By monitoring market trends, investors can make informed decisions about BTCUSDT.
Long
by CryptoWithJames
NDX Is Very Bearish! Sell! Take a look at our analysis for NDX. Time Frame: 9h Current Trend: Bearish Sentiment: Overbought (based on 7-period RSI) Forecast: Bearish The market is approaching a significant resistance area 21,287.68. Due to the fact that we see a positive bearish reaction from the underlined area, I strongly believe that sellers will manage to push the price all the way down to 20,340.94 level. P.S The term oversold refers to a condition where an asset has traded lower in price and has the potential for a price bounce. Overbought refers to market scenarios where the instrument is traded considerably higher than its fair value. Overvaluation is caused by market sentiments when there is positive news. Like and subscribe and comment my ideas if you enjoy them!
NASDAQ:NDXShort
by SignalProvider
1
EURUSD Is Going Up! Buy! Please, check our technical outlook for EURUSD. Time Frame: 2h Current Trend: Bullish Sentiment: Oversold (based on 7-period RSI) Forecast: Bullish The market is on a crucial zone of demand 156.354. The oversold market condition in a combination with key structure gives us a relatively strong bullish signal with goal 157.858 level. P.S We determine oversold/overbought condition with RSI indicator. When it drops below 30 - the market is considered to be oversold. When it bounces above 70 - the market is considered to be overbought. Like and subscribe and comment my ideas if you enjoy them!
Long
by SignalProvider
1
GOLD → Interest rates are dropping, so why is gold falling?Hello, dear friends! Ben here! Gold prices remain consolidated below the $2,600 level following a strong two-way price movement in the previous session and stay near their lowest point in over a month. The primary reason for the decline in gold prices is the recent decision by the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) to cut interest rates by an additional 0.25%. While this move was widely anticipated, the Fed also indicated that it plans to reduce rates at a slower pace in 2025. The impact of recent Fed rate cuts had already been priced into gold. At this point, investors are eager to know how many rate cuts the Fed will execute in 2025. According to the Fed's latest interest rate projections, only two rate cuts are expected in 2025, compared to four cuts projected in the September forecast. In theory, the Fed’s hawkish stance has worked effectively: the dollar has strengthened, and the markets have weakened. Today, all eyes are on GDP and the PCE data—an index the Fed considers a key measure of inflation. From a technical perspective, after retesting the previously broken channel boundary and an imbalance zone, gold prices have dropped further. As a result, a clear trend is emerging that warrants close observation. If the price fails to hold above the critical support level around $2,586/ounce, it is highly likely to decline toward the $2,521/ounce area. Sincerely, Bentradegold!
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by Bentradegold
Alikze »» GRT | Wave 3 or rising C scenario - 1W🔍 Technical analysis: Wave 3 or C scenario in the ascending channel - the target of the previous major ceiling - 1W - In the previously presented analysis , a bearish flag pattern was observed, after which the BINANCE:GRTUSDT currency entered a correction phase, which was completed by the size of the correction flag bar in the Buyer Zone box. - As can be seen, the weekly and daily timeframe is moving in an upward channel. - Currently, a descending channel has been formed inside the ascending channel, the descending flag pattern has been completed in the Buyer Zone. - Now, according to the current momentum, it can touch the neck line area in the first step. 💎 In addition, an AB=CD pattern has been formed, and the above modification is a response to the mentioned pattern. - So it can include a motivational wave in the form of wave 3 or bigger C, which can crown the previous major ceiling. ⚠️ Note: It should be noted that if the bottom area is touched before, the ascending scenario will be invalidated and must be updated again.⚠️ »»»«««»»»«««»»»««« Please support this idea with a LIKE and COMMENT if you find it useful and Click "Follow" on our profile if you'd like these trade ideas delivered straight to your email in the future. Thanks for your continued support. Best Regards,❤️ Alikze. »»»«««»»»«««»»»««« BINANCE:GRTUSDT
Long
by alikze
18
Lingrid | ARBUSDT buy LOW, sell HIGH OpportunityBINANCE:ARBUSDT has formed a long-tailed bar on the daily timeframe, indicating that buyers have stepped in and pushed the price higher. The market sold off giving opportunity to buy at low levels. Notably, this price action retested the top of the consolidation zone by forming a ABCD pullback. Since we rejection at the support level around 0.7000 we can expect the price to move up towards key resistance zone. My goal is resistance zone around 1.00 Traders, if you liked this idea or if you have your own opinion about it, write in the comments. I will be glad 👩‍💻
Long
by Lingrid
9
Lingrid | EURGBP sideways MOVEMENT. Potential ShortFX:EURGBP market is oscillating between the support zone at 0.82300 and the resistance zone at 0.83300. Currently, the price has bounced off the support level and is approaching the upper boundary of the consolidation zone. There is a strong chance that the market will rebound at the resistance level, where the upward trendline and the resistance zone around 0.83000. I anticipate that the market will pull back from this zone and potentially retest the middle of the consolidation range before deciding its next direction. My goal is support zone around 0.82700 Traders, if you liked this idea or if you have your own opinion about it, write in the comments. I will be glad 👩‍💻
Short
by Lingrid
2
USOIL Is Bullish! Buy! Here is our detailed technical review for USOIL. Time Frame: 9h Current Trend: Bullish Sentiment: Oversold (based on 7-period RSI) Forecast: Bullish The market is approaching a key horizontal level 69.836. Considering the today's price action, probabilities will be high to see a movement to 71.162. P.S Overbought describes a period of time where there has been a significant and consistent upward move in price over a period of time without much pullback. Like and subscribe and comment my ideas if you enjoy them!
CFI:WTILong
by SignalProvider
1