S&P500 Strong Support cluster on the 2-year Channel Up.S&P500 (SPX) has been trading within a 2-year Channel Up that has made the market recover from the 2022 Inflation Crisis, taking it to a new All Time High (ATH).
The recent 4-week decline however has been an aggressive one and rightly so has sparked heightened fear to investors, especially considering the trade war fundamentals. Technically, the index just broke below its 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) and is approaching the bottom of this long-term Channel Up, a development that in the eyes of short-term traders is disastrous.
On the long-term though, this is a very strong Support level as the market seems to be repeating the Secondary Channel Up (blue) of February - October 2023. The end of this was also an aggressive correction which broke below both the 1W MA50 and 0.382 Fibonacci retracement level temporarily before starting a massive Bullish Leg. Even the 1W RSI sequences among the two fractals are similar, despite the current price action being more aggressive.
Interestingly enough, they both declined by at least -10%, so if we see the current week closing in green and by the next starting to recover, it is likely to see a similar Bullish Leg to test the -0.5 Fibonacci extension as the April 01 2024 Top did. That would give us a 6900 long-term Target, which would be a +24.75% rise from the current low, exactly identical with the rise from the April 19 2024 to February 19 2025.
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Signals
BITCOIN Cycle pattern completed. Year-end Target locked at $150kBitcoin (BTCUSD) is showing the first signs of life after nearly testing the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) early this week. Whether this leads to a full on recovery or not, can been partially answered by this Cycle's price action so far.
Historically we do know that BTC's Bull Cycles so far tend to peak towards the end of their 3rd year and that's 2025. This Cycle has been predominantly trading within a Fibonacci Channel Up, since its very start, the November 2022 bottom. Its 1W MA50 has been supporting since the March 13 2023 break-out, so it's been exactly 2 years of holding and throughout this time period has provided two excellent buy opportunities.
As you can see, the Channel Up can be classified into two main Phases so far: each has a Primary correction (red) of more than -30% drop, followed by a rally (blue), then a Secondary correction (yellow) of more than -20%, followed by the second and last rally (blue). All rallies have so far been around +100%. Based on this model, we are now on the Secondary correction of Phase 2.
Notice that all corrections (either primary or secondary) hit or approached apart from the 1W MA50, the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement level from their previous Low. This is actually the first time that the price has marginally broken below the 0.382 Fib. At the same time, the 1D RSI almost got oversold last week (34.50) and according to the August 05 2024 (Higher) Low, this is were a series of RSI Higher Lows would be a signal of a new bottom formation.
The bottom and recovery process may take a while though, another 4-6 weeks. According to the Time Fibs (blue dashed vertical lines), each correction (whether primary or secondary) has ended at or a little before the 1.0 Fib with the 0.0 being the bottom of the previous one and 0.5 Fib the Top of the rally. Based on this, we can expect the new rally to start by the week of April 28 the latest.
So now as to how high this can get, if it repeats the 'weakest' rally of the Channel's three so far, it should rise by +95.95%, which gives us a straight price of $150000 as a Target. If the rally symmetry also holds, this should come by late September, perfectly aligning with Bitcoin's historic Cycle expectation for the final year.
Do you think that will be the case? Recovery starting within 4-6 weeks and if so, are you expecting $150k? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
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DXY Will Go Lower From Resistance! Sell!
Take a look at our analysis for DXY.
Time Frame: 1h
Current Trend: Bearish
Sentiment: Overbought (based on 7-period RSI)
Forecast: Bearish
The market is testing a major horizontal structure 103.479.
Taking into consideration the structure & trend analysis, I believe that the market will reach 103.100 level soon.
P.S
Overbought describes a period of time where there has been a significant and consistent upward move in price over a period of time without much pullback.
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SILVER Will Go Up From Support! Long!
Please, check our technical outlook for SILVER.
Time Frame: 1h
Current Trend: Bullish
Sentiment: Oversold (based on 7-period RSI)
Forecast: Bullish
The market is approaching a key horizontal level 33.001.
Considering the today's price action, probabilities will be high to see a movement to 33.344.
P.S
Please, note that an oversold/overbought condition can last for a long time, and therefore being oversold/overbought doesn't mean a price rally will come soon, or at all.
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GBPUSD Will Go Lower! Short!
Here is our detailed technical review for GBPUSD.
Time Frame: 1D
Current Trend: Bearish
Sentiment: Overbought (based on 7-period RSI)
Forecast: Bearish
The market is approaching a significant resistance area 1.292.
Due to the fact that we see a positive bearish reaction from the underlined area, I strongly believe that sellers will manage to push the price all the way down to 1.252 level.
P.S
The term oversold refers to a condition where an asset has traded lower in price and has the potential for a price bounce.
Overbought refers to market scenarios where the instrument is traded considerably higher than its fair value. Overvaluation is caused by market sentiments when there is positive news.
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EURNZD Will Go Down! Sell!
Take a look at our analysis for EURNZD.
Time Frame: 1D
Current Trend: Bearish
Sentiment: Overbought (based on 7-period RSI)
Forecast: Bearish
The market is on a crucial zone of supply 1.909.
The above-mentioned technicals clearly indicate the dominance of sellers on the market. I recommend shorting the instrument, aiming at 1.877 level.
P.S
We determine oversold/overbought condition with RSI indicator.
When it drops below 30 - the market is considered to be oversold.
When it bounces above 70 - the market is considered to be overbought.
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GBPAUD Approaching Major Resistance — Potential Sell SetupOANDA:GBPAUD is approaching a major resistance zone, highlighted by strong selling interest. This area has historically acted as a supply zone, increasing the likelihood of a bearish reversal if sellers step in.
The current market structure suggests that if the price confirms resistance within this zone, we could see further downside movement. A successful rejection could push the pair toward 2.03000, a logical target based on prior price behavior and the current structure.
However, if the price breaks and holds above this resistance, the bearish outlook may be invalidated, potentially leading to further upside.
Just my take on support and resistance zones—not financial advice. Always confirm your setups and trade with solid risk management.
Best of luck!
Lingrid | EURJPY corrective MOVEMENT from KEY Resistance ZoneThe price perfectly fulfilled my previous idea. It reached the target zone. FX:EURJPY market has formed higher highs and higher closes, yet there remains strong resistance above. On the higher time frame, the price has been oscillating between 155,000 and 165,000, and it seems to be approaching the top of this range near last year’s closing level. If we get rejection at the psychological level of 163,000, we can expect a pullback from this point. Additionally, on the daily time frame, there is a global downward trendline that the price has bounced off multiple times. My goal is support zone around 160.250
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AUDNZD Is Going Down! Short!
Please, check our technical outlook for AUDNZD.
Time Frame: 1h
Current Trend: Bearish
Sentiment: Overbought (based on 7-period RSI)
Forecast: Bearish
The market is approaching a key horizontal level 1.102.
Considering the today's price action, probabilities will be high to see a movement to 1.101.
P.S
We determine oversold/overbought condition with RSI indicator.
When it drops below 30 - the market is considered to be oversold.
When it bounces above 70 - the market is considered to be overbought.
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Lingrid | ADAUSDT ongoing BEARISH Pressure in the MARKETSBINANCE:ADAUSDT market initially tested the January highs before dropping, taking liquidity above. On the weekly time frame, a massive bearish engulfing candle has formed suggesting further bearish move. Given that we've recently witnessed a dead cat bounce in the markets, I believe the price may push lower towards the November low zone. I expect the market to consolidate a bit in this area before continuing its downward trend by breaking through the upward trendline towards the next liquidity zone below February low. My goal is support zone around 0.5266
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SPY S&P 500 etf Oversold on the RSI ! 2025 Price Target ! The SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) is flashing a major buy signal, with its Relative Strength Index (RSI) currently sitting at 28.33 — firmly in oversold territory. Historically, every time SPY has entered oversold levels on the RSI, institutional buyers have stepped in aggressively, driving sharp rebounds in the following weeks and months.
The last time SPY dipped below the 30 RSI threshold was during market pullbacks in 2022 and 2023 — both of which were followed by significant rallies as institutions capitalized on discounted valuations. The current setup is no different. With earnings growth stabilizing, inflation cooling, and the Federal Reserve signaling a potential shift toward rate cuts in the second half of the year, the backdrop for a recovery is aligning perfectly.
Technically, SPY is also approaching key support levels that have held strong in past market corrections. The combination of an oversold RSI and strong institutional appetite at these levels creates a compelling case for a bounce.
My price target for SPY by year-end is $640, representing over 15% upside from current levels. With sentiment stretched to the downside and technical indicators flashing green, SPY looks primed for a sharp and sustained rebound. Now could be the perfect time to position for the next leg higher.
Lingrid | TRXUSDT Remains in a CONSOLIDATION PhaseAfter the recent sell-off, BINANCE:TRXUSDT market has been moving sideways within a downward channel. The price is consolidating below the key level of 0.25. Zooming out, we can observe that the price is forming a triangle pattern. I believe there is a possibility of a fake breakout at the channel boundary and resistance zone, which would likely lead to continued sideways movement. If a false breakout occurs at the resistance zone, I expect the price may move to lower levels, especially since this area coincides with the previous week’s highs from the last two weeks. My goal is support zone around 0.2250
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GOLD recovers and stays above $2,900, pay attention to CPI dataOANDA:XAUUSD rebounded, driven mainly by safe-haven flows as trade war concerns dampened market risk sentiment and markets focused on US inflation data.
TVC:DXY hit a four-month low, making gold more attractive. Meanwhile, the main event of the week is the US CPI report today (March 12), which could cause major market moves. Positive data could lead to a sharp sell-off in gold, while weak data could give the green light for further gains in gold.
CPI is expected to have risen 0.3% in February, according to a Reuters poll. The New York Federal Reserve's latest consumer expectations survey forecasts inflation at 3.1% over the next year, up slightly from 3% in January. Markets are now expecting the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates in June.
Technical Outlook Analysis OANDA:XAUUSD
On the daily chart, in terms of trend, gold is still in the accumulation phase after recovering from the $2,880 level noted by readers in the previous editions and the break above the $2,900 level provides conditions for further testing of the $2,929 level in the short term.
For now, gold is still trading around the EMA21 and is still in a consolidation state, but in terms of technical conditions, it is more likely to increase in price. With the price channel as a short-term trend, and the RSI activity above 50, quite far from the overbought zone, it shows that the bullish momentum is still ahead.
However, the technical chart still needs a strong impact to break the current accumulation structure. And during the day, the notable positions will be listed as follows.
Support: 2,900 - 2,880 USD
Resistance: 2,929 - 2,942 USD
SELL XAUUSD PRICE 2961 - 2959⚡️
↠↠ Stoploss 2965
→Take Profit 1 2953
↨
→Take Profit 2 2947
BUY XAUUSD PRICE 2899 - 2901⚡️
↠↠ Stoploss 2895
→Take Profit 1 2907
↨
→Take Profit 2 2913
WHEAT Approaching Key Support - Will Price Rebound to 550$?PEPPERSTONE:WHEAT is approaching a key support level, an area where buyers have previously shown strong interest. The recent bearish movement suggests that price may soon be testing this level, potentially setting up for a rebound.
A bullish confirmation, such as a strong rejection pattern, bullish engulfing candles, or long lower wicks, would strengthen the case for a move higher. If buyers step in, the price could rally toward the 550$ target. However, a decisive breakdown below this support would invalidate the bullish scenario and could lead to further downside.
This is not financial advice but rather how I approach support/resistance zones. Remember, always wait for confirmation, like a rejection candle or volume spike before jumping in.
Best of luck , TrendDiva
USD-JPY Swing Long! Buy!
Hello,Traders!
USD-JPY has made a retest
Of the horizontal support
Of 146.540 and we are already
Seeing a bullish rebound
From where we will be
Expecting further move up
Buy!
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SILVER Bullish Breakout! Buy!
Hello,Traders!
SILVER is trading in an uptrend
And the price made a bullish
Breakout of the key horizontal
Level of 3266$ and the brekaout
Is confirmed so we are bullish
Biased and we will be expecting
A further bullish continuation
Buy!
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EUR-GBP Resistance Ahead! Sell!
Hello,Traders!
EUR-GBP keeps growing in
A strong uptrend but the pair
Is already overbought so after
It hits a horizontal support
Level of 0.8473 we will be
Expecting a local bearish correction
Sell!
Comment and subscribe to help us grow!
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GBP_USD WILL GO UP|LONG|
✅GBP_USD is trading in an
Uptrend and the pair made
A bullish breakout of the key
Horizontal level of 1.2850
Which is now a support
Then made a retest and is going up
Now so we are bullish biased
And we will be expecting a
Further move up
LONG🚀
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USDJPY Falling Wedge Breakout: 300 Pips Bullish Move AheadUSDJPY is currently trading at 147.50, having recently broken out of a falling wedge pattern, a strong bullish reversal signal. After the breakout, the pair has completed its retesting phase, confirming support at lower levels. With bullish momentum building, we now expect an upward move toward the 152.50 target, implying a 300 pips gain from current levels.
From a technical analysis perspective, the falling wedge is a well-known bullish continuation pattern, indicating that sellers have weakened and buyers are stepping in. Now that the retest is complete, the next key resistance levels to watch are 149.50 and 151.00, with 152.50 being the final target. Support levels are now formed at 146.50 and 145.80, where buyers could step in if any short-term pullback occurs.
On the fundamental side, USDJPY is influenced by Federal Reserve and Bank of Japan monetary policy differences. The Fed's hawkish stance and rising U.S. Treasury yields continue to support USD strength. Meanwhile, the Bank of Japan's ultra-loose policy keeps the yen weaker, allowing the bullish USDJPY momentum to continue. Additionally, risk sentiment and global economic trends favor the dollar as a safe-haven asset.
With the falling wedge breakout confirmed and fundamentals supporting further gains, USDJPY looks poised for a strong bullish rally. Traders should monitor volume and price action for confirmation, as a push above 149.50 could accelerate the move toward 152.50. This setup presents a great opportunity to capture a high-probability trade in the coming sessions.
XAUUSD Bullish Pennant Breakout: Gold Aiming for 3020XAUUSD is currently consolidating around 2920, forming a **bullish pennant pattern**, a strong continuation signal indicating potential upside momentum. Gold has been in a steady uptrend, and this consolidation phase suggests that the market is gathering strength before the next move. A breakout above the pennant resistance could push prices toward the psychological level of **3000**, with an extended target of **3020**.
From a technical perspective, a **bullish pennant** is characterized by a brief consolidation after a strong rally, typically leading to another upward surge. If gold **breaks out with strong volume**, it could confirm further bullish momentum. **Key resistance levels** to watch are 2950 and 2970, while **strong support levels** are at 2900 and 2880. A successful breakout could attract more buyers, fueling a strong rally toward the **3020 level**.
On the **fundamental side**, gold remains well-supported by **geopolitical tensions, central bank gold purchases, and expectations of Federal Reserve rate adjustments**. If economic uncertainty increases or the Fed signals a more dovish stance, gold prices could gain further momentum. Additionally, a weaker **U.S. dollar and falling bond yields** could add fuel to the bullish case for XAUUSD.
In conclusion, XAUUSD is forming a **bullish pennant**, signaling a potential breakout toward 3020. **Traders should watch for volume confirmation and breakout signals above resistance levels** to enter positions strategically. If the breakout is confirmed, we can expect gold to gain further strength, presenting a great buying opportunity for traders.