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AMD broke above the Lower Highs and confirms a massive rally.It's been a while (August 13, see chart below) since we last looked into the Advanced Micro Devices (AMD), which was a strong long-term buy signal, with the price reacting very favorably, having already started its new Bullish Leg: Today we take it to the 1D time-frame where where the scale of where the price might be compared to the previous two mega rallies since the October 13 2023 bottom, may be clearer. Remarkably, the last two rallies were both of around +142%. In symmetrical terms we are around the 0.618 Fibonacci level mark where both Bullish Legs had a technical pull-back. The key bullish development of last week though has been the break above the Lower Highs trend-line, which in line with previous Legs, has been the confirmation of the start of the long-term rally. As a result, we have now validated that the Bearish Leg is behind us and any pull-backs this structure gives, will be buy opportunities. Our Target is intact at $295.00. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
NASDAQ:AMDLong
by TradingShot
4
WTI OIL 1D MA200 rejection giving the perfect sell.WTI Oil (USOIL) hit our 76.00 Target as presented on our September 24 idea (see chart below): Today even though the price breached the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line), it has since been forcefully rejected. This is not a surprise as all medium-term rallies coming off a Support level bounce since June 2023, were all rejected on the short-term on the 1D MA200. The July 13 2023 one got rejected back to its 0.382 Fibonacci retracement level, while the January 29 2024 one dived lower to the 0.618 Fib. The 1D RSI (red circles) indicates that we are currently exactly on such a rejection sequence. As a result, we turn bearish on WTI, expecting at least a 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) breach at 72.50, which is a Target marginally below the 0.382 Fib. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
TVC:USOILShort
by TradingShot
Lingrid | GOLD Weekly Market OUTLOOKOANDA:XAUUSD spent the entire week moving sideways. When analyzing the daily timeframe, we see that the candles have formed wicks, indicating a choppy market. The price has not broken out of the previous week's range; instead, it has created an inside bar formation. There is a possibility that the market may remain in this consolidation phase for another week or so. Typically, after a strong momentum, the market enters a sideways phase, which is what we're currently experiencing following the bullish trend in September. This behavior resembles what we observed earlier In August when the market experienced bullish momentum and then spent the rest of the month consolidating. I believe the market could move down toward the psychological level at 2600 before bouncing off upward, potentially taking liquidity below the previous week's low. Overall, I expect the trend to continue, especially given the ongoing geopolitical tensions and rate cuts that are favorable for gold. Traders, if you liked this idea or if you have your own opinion about it, write in the comments. I will be glad 👩‍💻
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Lingrid
31
US100 Is Very Bullish! Long! Take a look at our analysis for US100. Time Frame: 9h Current Trend: Bullish Sentiment: Oversold (based on 7-period RSI) Forecast: Bullish The market is trading around a solid horizontal structure 19,879.7. The above observations make me that the market will inevitably achieve 20,228.4 level. P.S Overbought describes a period of time where there has been a significant and consistent upward move in price over a period of time without much pullback. Like and subscribe and comment my ideas if you enjoy them!
CAPITALCOM:US100Long
by SignalProvider
2
GOLD Is Going Up! Buy! Please, check our technical outlook for GOLD. Time Frame: 4h Current Trend: Bullish Sentiment: Oversold (based on 7-period RSI) Forecast: Bullish The market is testing a major horizontal structure 2,637.609. Taking into consideration the structure & trend analysis, I believe that the market will reach 2,658.674 level soon. P.S Please, note that an oversold/overbought condition can last for a long time, and therefore being oversold/overbought doesn't mean a price rally will come soon, or at all. Like and subscribe and comment my ideas if you enjoy them!
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by SignalProvider
1
CHFJPY Will Go Higher From Support! Buy! Take a look at our analysis for CHFJPY. Time Frame: 2h Current Trend: Bullish Sentiment: Oversold (based on 7-period RSI) Forecast: Bullish The market is approaching a significant support area 172.733. The underlined horizontal cluster clearly indicates a highly probable bullish movement with target 174.189 level. P.S We determine oversold/overbought condition with RSI indicator. When it drops below 30 - the market is considered to be oversold. When it bounces above 70 - the market is considered to be overbought. Like and subscribe and comment my ideas if you enjoy them!
Long
by SignalProvider
1
USDJPY Waiting for this perfect sell opportunity.Two weeks ago (September 25, see chart below) we gave a strong multi-month buy signal on the USDJPY pair and it couldn't have had a better timing: Last week recorded a massive 1W green candle, the strongest one in more than 2 years that almost tested the 1W MA50. Today we will be breaking down this long-term buy opportunity on the lower 1D time-frame. As you can see, the price is approaching the 1D MA100 (green trend-line)/ 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) Resistance cluster. This is of very high importance as during the previous Channel Up bottom in early 2023, the two formed a Bearish Cross (February 27 2023) and just a few days later the pair topped and was rejected on the 1D MA200. The result was a pull-back to the 0.786 Fibonacci retracement level. Long-term we remain bullish but on the short-term we will be waiting for this rejection opportunity in order to short and target the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) at 146.000. Notice also that the high symmetry on the RSI sequences among the two bottom fractals also indicates that we are just before the 1D MA100/ 200 Bearish Cross took place. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
by TradingShot
AUDNZD Will Move Lower! Short! Please, check our technical outlook for AUDNZD. Time Frame: 2h Current Trend: Bearish Sentiment: Overbought (based on 7-period RSI) Forecast: Bearish The market is testing a major horizontal structure 1.104. Taking into consideration the structure & trend analysis, I believe that the market will reach 1.101 level soon. P.S We determine oversold/overbought condition with RSI indicator. When it drops below 30 - the market is considered to be oversold. When it bounces above 70 - the market is considered to be overbought. Like and subscribe and comment my ideas if you enjoy them!
Short
by SignalProvider
1
DOW JONES Short-term correction or invalidation?Dow Jones (DJI) has been trading within a Channel Up ever since the August 05 bottom and right now finds itself below the 4H MA50 (blue trend-line). This is because based on the Higher Highs sequence, the pattern has topped and is potentially looking for the new Higher Low. As long as the 42400 Resistance is holding, we will be expecting a short-term correction towards the 4H MA200 (orange trend-line), with a projected Low around 41600. Note that it will be above the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement level, where the September 11 Higher Low was priced. If the 42400 Resistance, which we call the invalidation level for shorts, breaks first then we will take the loss on the short and turn bullish instead. The last Higher High was priced marginally above the 1.236 Fibonacci level, so that will be our Target (43200). ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
CAPITALCOM:US30
by TradingShot
BITCOIN fractal alert! Happening exactly like last October!We talked a while ago regarding the 'October effect' (August 28, see chart below) on Bitcoin (BTCUSD). But today we need to make an urgent analysis as it appears that the market is repeating almost the exact sequence of a year ago (October 2023). The similarities are more obvious on the 1D time-frame where the price is currently ranged within the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) and the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line). The most recent time it traded like this was exactly one year ago, back in the first two weeks of October 2023. As you can see, during that time BTC also made a marginal break above the 1D MA200 before quickly pulling back below it. After it tested and held the 1D MA50 (as it did no on October 01 2024), is started the long-term aggressive rally of the Channel Up that peaked on March 14 2024. As long as the 1W MA50 continues to hold as the long-term Support, there are high probabilities of seeing 100k, even before the end of 2024. But what do you think? Do you see realistic the scenario of repeating the post October 2023 rally? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below! ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
CRYPTO:BTCUSDLong
by TradingShot
16
Lingrid | SHIBUSDT accumulation for BULLISH times AheadBINANCE:SHIBUSDT is currently in an accumulation phase, with the price oscillating around the 0.000015 level. The market has bounced off this support level twice before making an upward impulse move. The most recent swing upward was stronger than the previous one, indicating that the price may be gaining bullish momentum. Additionally, there is a growing expectation of a potential bull run, which could serve as a trigger for further upward movement. The market continues to bounce off the upward trendline, suggesting that price action is forming higher lows, a sign of buying pressure. Based on this analysis, I expect the price to test the channel border again, potentially leading to further bullish momentum. My targe is resistance zone at 0.00002 Traders, if you liked this idea or if you have your own opinion about it, write in the comments. I will be glad 👩‍💻
Long
by Lingrid
3
World gold prices decreased despite the decline in the USD indexGold rate fluctuates strongly because of many conflicting elements affecting it. Jesse Colombo - unbiased analyst, stated the state of affairs withinside the Middle East is complex and nobody can are expecting what is going to happen. Therefore, humans rushed to shop for gold and hold the rate strong as at present. On the contrary, Michael Moor - founding father of Moor Analytics commented that gold fees will lower in the course of this time. Meanwhile, Mark Leibovit - writer of VR Metals/Resource Letter, believes that the marketplace has reached the pinnacle of the short-time period cycle. Regarding the gold import state of affairs of valuable banks, in step with treasured metals analysts at Heraeus, in spite of growing gold fees, India`s gold imports have skyrocketed to the very best degree considering that the start of 2021. In their modern-day replace on treasured metals, analysts at Heraeus stated India's gold imports have hit a 3.5-12 months excessive in education for robust seasonal call for. “Strong call for from Indian clients and restocking through the metals enterprise in advance of the Diwali competition despatched the country's gold imports hovering to a greater than three-12 months excessive of a hundred twenty five tonnes in August. This marks an boom of 58% 12 months-over-12 months and 212% month-over-month. Imports had been supported through a reduce in import price lists on treasured metals in July.” 💎 TVC:GOLD Buy 2630 - 2627💎 ✔️TP1: 2647 ✔️TP2: 2657 ✔️TP3: OPEN 🚫SL: 2619 💎 TVC:GOLD Sell 2653 - 2655💎 ✔️TP1: 2640 ✔️TP2: 2637 ✔️TP3: OPEN 🚫SL: 2663
TVC:GOLDShort
by FalCol_TradingMaster
2
Understanding Turtle Soup: A Dive Into Liquidity Raids📍 Turtle Trading Turtle Soup is a distinctive trading strategy developed by Linda Bradford Raschke, as detailed in her acclaimed book, “Street Smarts: High Probability Short-Term Trading Strategies.” This strategy draws inspiration from another well-known approach called Turtle Trading, which gained prominence in the early 1980s through legendary traders Richard Dennis and William Eckhardt. The term "Turtles" refers to a group of traders who participated in an ambitious experiment conducted by Dennis and Eckhardt in 1983. Dennis affectionately dubbed his students “turtles,” inspired by the turtle farms he visited in Singapore. This charming nickname symbolized his belief that, just like the turtles in those farms, he could help his traders grow rapidly and efficiently within the competitive landscape of the financial markets. Together, these strategies reflect innovative approaches to trading that continue to influence market participants today. 📍 Essence of the Turtle Trading Strategy The essence of the Turtle Trading strategy lies in trend following. This approach is articulated through a set of straightforward rules: Long Positions: Traders consider entering long positions when the price breaks above a predefined high. This break signals a potential upward trend, prompting traders to capitalize on upward momentum. Short Positions: Conversely, traders look to enter short positions when the price breaks below a predefined low. This break indicates a potential downward trend, allowing traders to profit from falling prices. These simple yet effective rules enable traders to identify and take advantage of trending markets, helping them make informed trading decisions based on price action. The Turtle Trading strategy has become a cornerstone in the world of systematic trading. 📍 Turtle Soup Strategy Linda Raschke's Turtle Soup strategy takes a contrarian approach to the traditional Turtle Trading method. While the classic Turtle Trading strategy advocates for going long after a breakout above a recent high and shorting after a breakout below a recent low, Turtle Soup implements a reversal of this idea, focusing on "false breakouts." 📍 Key Elements of Turtle Soup: Long Positions: The strategy suggests opening a long position when the price breaks below the 20-day low. This might initially appear counterintuitive, as it involves buying after a dip. However, the premise is that a breakout may attract sellers, and once prices decrease sufficiently, the market could reverse, allowing traders to profit from a bounce back upwards. Short Positions: Conversely, a short position is initiated when the price breaks above the 20-day high. In this case, the idea is that many breakouts fail to sustain momentum. Following the initial price surge above resistance, sellers might step in, leading to a price reversal, thus creating an opportunity for a profitable short position. The Turtle Soup strategy is based on the observation that breakouts do not always result in continued price movement in the breakout direction. Many breakouts can be "false," meaning that after an initial push, prices trend back in the opposite direction. By capitalizing on these potential reversals, traders using Turtle Soup hope to benefit from the corrections that often follow breakouts. 📍 Smart Money ICT methodology emphasizes a strategic approach often referred to as "smart money." This approach involves leveraging liquidity in the market, specifically through stop orders strategically placed behind price swings to establish trading positions. Here's how the process unfolds: liquidity situated just beyond recent highs—known as Buy Stops or Buyside Liquidity—is typically utilized to initiate short positions. Conversely, liquidity positioned below recent lows, referred to as Sell Stops or Sellside Liquidity, is exploited to trigger long positions. This sophisticated trading strategy is versatile and applicable not only in short-term trading scenarios but also during breakouts above the 20-day highs and minima. Furthermore, it can be effectively employed in intraday trading, scalping, and various other trading methodologies, thanks to the fractal nature of price action in the markets. Examplse 📍 Strategy Application A key distinction in applying this trading strategy lies in the differing approaches of notable traders. Linda Raschke emphasizes the pursuit of liquidity within a 20-day timeframe, focusing solely on the movements of recent highs and lows. In contrast, smart money practitioners implement this methodology across shorter timeframes, enhancing their strategy with liquidity zones. ICT has further refined this approach, broadening its scope and elucidating the rationale behind price behavior through the lens of market efficiency. By doing so, ICT provides traders with a deeper understanding of how to navigate and capitalize on market dynamics effectively. Traders, If you liked this educational post🎓, give it a boost 🚀 and drop a comment 📣
Education
by Lingrid
1
Cardano: Crash Ahead? Prepare for a Potential 20%+ Downside!Hey Realistic Traders, let’s dive into the analysis of BINANCE:ADAUSDT On the daily chart, Cardano continues to struggle below the critical EMA200, signaling a persistent bearish bias. Even more telling, the price has repeatedly respected the bearish trendline, underscoring the strength of this downtrend. To make matters worse, we've seen a breakout from two major bearish formations: the Rising Wedge and the Ascending Broadening Wedge. Both patterns point to a continuation of the downward spiral. Adding fuel to the fire, the MACD has made a clear bearish crossover, confirming that the bears are firmly in control. Based on these signals, we anticipate a sharp drop toward the first target at 0.2753. After that, a brief pullback could bring prices back into the green zone before heading even lower to the second target at 0.2384. This technical outlook remains valid as long as the price stays above the support area at 0.4158. Disclaimer: "Please note that this analysis is solely for educational purposes and should not be considered a recommendation to take a long or short position on Cardano. Please support the channel by engaging with the content, using the rocket button, and sharing your opinions in the comments below.
Short
by financialfreedomgoals101
3
Gold Price Today: Struggling to Break Free!At the start of Tuesday’s trading session, gold (XAUUSD) is hovering around $2,646, with a modest increase of 0.17% on the day. However, the precious metal lacks strong momentum, as the U.S. jobs report exceeded expectations, dampening hopes of a significant rate cut by the Federal Reserve. This has driven up U.S. Treasury yields and strengthened the USD, putting downward pressure on gold prices. From both a fundamental and technical perspective, a further decline in gold could be expected, especially if it reacts to the trendline or resistance levels. A selling strategy could be considered if sellers capitalize on the price correction influenced by the 34 and 89 EMA indicators.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by ConanTradingFX
Alikze »» FTM | Wave 3 or C super cycle scenario - 2D🔍 Technical analysis: Wave 3 or C super cycle scenario - 2D - In the analysis presented in the previous post in the weekly time frame, it was mentioned: it is suspicious of a head and shoulders pattern. - So far, according to the previous analysis, the first target (supply zone) has been touched and it is currently above the target zone. - In the analysis presented in the 4-hour time frame, it had a zigzag pattern, which is in wave one of three. - In the daily time frame, it is located in an ascending channel, the previous corrective wave was able to form a reversal pattern in the range of 0.23 fibo. - Therefore, I expect that it will face demand in the Buyer Zone and continue its growth with the failure of the middle of the channel up to the ceiling of the ascending channel. In addition, after breaking the ascending channel, it will have the ability to reach the red box area (supply area). So this bullish wave is wave 3 or big C, which will have the ability to grow up to the indicated ranges. 💎 Alternative scenario: If the Buyer Zone is broken and stabilizes below it, it can touch the 0.23 Fibo range again. »»»«««»»»«««»»»««« Please support this idea with a LIKE and COMMENT if you find it useful and Click "Follow" on our profile if you'd like these trade ideas delivered straight to your email in the future. Thanks for your continued support. Best Regards,❤️ Alikze. »»»«««»»»«««»»»««« OKX:FTMUSDT
Long
by alikze
4
Market News Report - 06 October 2024The last were turned this week for AUD, which went from being one of the top-performing currencies to among the worst. Conversely, the dollar gained the upper hand partly because of positive job numbers. Let's see how the coming weeks may turn out for the major currencies in our latest market news report. Market Overview Below is a brief technical and fundamental analysis breakdown for all major currencies. US dollar (USD) Short-term outlook: bearish. The Fed's recent historic 50 basis points (bps) rate cut keeps the bearish bias firmly in place. However, the stronger-than-expected jobs report put a spanner in the works, pricing out a 50 bps cut in the next meeting. However, the central bank has signalled the potential for two 25 bps drops by the end of this year. STIR (short-term interest rate) markets see a 97% chance of this cut in the meeting next month. After weeks of ranging around the key support area at 100.617, the DXY made its intention known to head north. We spoke about a potential technically-driven retracement (despite the bearish fundamentals). Meanwhile, the key resistance is far away at 107.348, which will remain untouched for some time. Long-term outlook: weak bearish. Markets anticipate several rate cuts before the year ends, with the Fed keen to harness a soft landing. Also, any data on weakened jobs would be another bearish driver for the dollar. However, the recent upbeat Non-Farm Payrolls figure makes rate cuts less urgent, allowing for potential further USD retracement. Euro (EUR) Short-term outlook: bearish. As usual, the STIR (short-term interest markets) were predictably accurate as the European Central Bank (ECB) cut the interest rate a few weeks ago. While 'being mum' about forward guidance, they revised core inflation projections higher. Also, the past week saw weaker economic data across various European nations. Finally, short-term interest rate (STIR) markets have indicated a 100% chance (up from 93% last week) of a rate cut at the October 17 meeting. The euro stayed around the 1.1200 area for over two months. However, it broke the range, showing the first of bearish pressure. Still, this market finds itself not far between the major resistance at 1.12757 and key support at 1.07774. Long-term outlook: bearish. After a long period, we have changed the long-term bias to 'bearish' (from 'weak bearish'). The ECB has yet to commit to a specific future path with the interest rate for some time. Due to lingering concerns over services inflation, a rate cut in October has become more likely than before. British pound (GBP) Short-term outlook: bearish. The Bank of England (BoE) kept the interest rate steady in its meeting. Still, the language indicates that they need to be “restrictive for sufficiently long.” Also, the central bank's higher-ups stressed "a gradual need" to cut rates. As with the ECB, the central bank's current key theme is fighting persistent inflation in the United Kingdom. So, it makes more sense to be dovish than hawkish. Governor Bailey even hinted last Thursday that "aggressive rate cuts" were possible if inflation went lower. This past week's downturn may be the start of a more serious bear move. Nonetheless, the next resistance target is 1.34825. Meanwhile, the nearest key support is at 1.26156. Long-term outlook: weak bearish. Sequential rate cuts by the BoE may soon be a reality. Also, expect any weak CPI, labour, and GDP data to back up the bearish bias. However, the central bank hopes for lower service inflation, which may provide relief. Another interesting point is the latest CFTC (Commodity Futures Trading Commission) report, showing that GBP longs have been stretched to the upside. So, bullishness should be limited at some point. Japanese yen (JPY) Short-term outlook: bullish. The primary bullish catalyst is the Bank of Japan’s (BoJ) recent decision to hike the interest rate. STIR markets expect a hold (99% probability) at the next meeting but a hike at the start of next year. ​​Governor Ueda of the BoJ noted that despite domestic economic recovery, recent exchange rate movements have reduced the upside risk of inflation. All of this backs up the potential for a rate hold or hike. The 140.252 support area is proving quite strong, boosting the yen since mid-September. Still, the major resistance (at 161.950) is too far for traders to worry about. Long-term outlook: weak bullish. Lower US Treasury yields are one potential bullish catalyst for the yen (the opposite is true). Inflation pressures and wage growth would also provide upward momentum. We should also consider that the dovish tendencies of other major central banks and worsening US macro conditions are JPY-positive Still, as a slight downer, near-term inflation risks subsiding (according to the BoJ) reduce the urgency for a rate hiking cycle. Australian dollar (AUD) Short-term outlook: weak bullish. The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) kept the interest rate unchanged during the Sept. 25 meeting. They further stated that they "did not explicitly consider rate hikes" for the future, which is a marginally dovish statement. The Aussie remains sensitive to China’s recent economic woes, especially with declining iron ore prices from the country’s steelmakers. As always, it depends on drops or rises in economic data like GDP, inflation, and labour. After failing to break the 0.68711 resistance level several times, the Aussie retraced noticeably from this area. Still, this market is bullish and far from the major support level at 0.63484. Long-term outlook: weak bullish. The RBA has certainly changed their tune from hawkish to slightly hawkish/dovish. Overall, it's crucial to be data-dependent with the Aussie, especially with core inflation as the RBA's key focus area. However, the Australian dollar is pro-cyclical, so it is exposed to economic growth in other countries. New Zealand dollar (NZD) Short-term outlook: weak bearish. In its latest meeting, the central bank's dovish stance (where it cut the interest rate) puts the Kiwi in a 'bearish bracket.' The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZD) also revised cash rate projections lower, which further signals a dovish move. Finally, various core inflation metrics are consistent with stable and low inflation. The markets see a 100% chance (up from 70% last week) of a 0.5% rate cut at Tuesday's meeting. The major resistance level at 0.63696 is proving past strength as we see a noteworthy retracement (similar to its neighbouring Aussie). Conversely, the major support is at 0.58498, an area which it is unlikely to test soon. Long-term outlook: weak bearish. In its latest meeting, the central bank's dovish stance (where it cut the interest rate) puts the Kiwi in a 'bearish bracket.' However, as a risk-sensitive currency like the Aussie, any growth data in China could trigger bullishness for NZD. So, traders should be data-dependent. Canadian dollar (CAD) Short-term outlook: bearish. The Bank of Canada (BoC) recently dropped the interest rate to 4.25%, as anticipated by the markets for some time. Further cuts in the next few meetings are on the cards (with a 63% chance of a 50 bps cut next month), with the long-term target being 3%. Unemployment, weak economic growth, and mortgage stress are the key drivers for this dovishness. Speaking of the former, keep an eye on the CAD unemployment rate on Friday (where no change is expected). The CAD continues to strengthen mildly due to USD weakness. It now looks to test the next major support target at 1.33586, while the major resistance is far ahead at 1.39468. Long-term outlook: weak bearish. Expectations of a rate cut remain the focal point. Governor Macklem himself stated a while ago that it's reasonable to expect more cuts in the future. Any big misses in the upcoming data for GBP, inflation, and GDP will probably boost the chance of a rate cut. STIR markets see a 63% chance of the latter happening later this month. Also, mortgage stress remains a major factor in this interest rate policy, and the BoC will have to cut rates to alleviate it. Expect encouraging oil prices and general economic data improvement to save the Canadian dollar's blushes. Swiss franc (CHF) Short-term outlook: bearish. STIR markets were, as usual, correct in their 43% chance of a 25bps rate cut (from 1.25% to 1%) this past week. In the Sept. 26 meeting, the Swiss National (SNB) indicated its preparedness to intervene in the FX market and further rate cuts in the coming quarters. The central bank's new Chair (Schlegel) said they "cannot rule out negative rates." Finally, the September CPI came in weak at 0.8%, against the expected year-on-year 1.1%. Still, the Swiss franc can strengthen during geopolitical tensions, such as a worsening Middle East crisis. While we see a clear range, this market is looking to break it (even though it remains a strong bear move). The major support level is closer at (0.83326), while the major resistance level is far higher at 0.92244. Long-term outlook: weak bearish. The bearish sentiment remains after the last SNB meeting, while inflation is being tamed with lower revisions. We should also remember that the SNB's intervention prevents the appreciation of the Swiss franc. The new chairman is more keen to cut rates than his predecessor, Jordan. STIR markets are currently pricing a 22% chance of a 50 bps cut at the meeting in December. On the flip side, 'safe haven flows' and geopolitical risks can be positively supportive for the currency. As with other central banks, inflation is a crucial metric in the SNB's policy rates. Conclusion Besides the NZD interest rate decision, this week isn't filled with high-impact economic events, reducing the chance of high volatility. Still, hope for the best and prepare for the worst. This report should help you determine your bias toward each currency in the short and long term.
TVC:DXY
by CityTradersImperium_CTI