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Gold --> Bear Market Intensifies, Key Resistance LoomsHello, dear friends! This is Ben. Gold prices rose after a false breakout at 2,650. Fundamentally, the situation remains complex, and technically... The metal's price is being influenced by geopolitical tensions, weaker U.S. bond yields, and a softer USD, which supports the safe-haven appeal of XAU/USD. However, bets on a less dovish Fed warrant caution for bullish markets ahead of this week's FOMC meeting. Theoretically, additional gold price gains could be limited by concerns about China's economy after its industrial production posted a modest rise in November, while retail sales disappointed. Widening gold discounts in India amid subdued wedding season demand due to higher prices may also act as a drag on the metal. China and India remain the largest gold consumers globally. Looking ahead, U.S. PMI data also warrants attention for fresh insights into the Fed's rate trajectory next year, which could heavily influence gold prices—given gold's sensitivity to the USD. From a technical perspective, gold is attempting to break out of a major range, testing critical support. Since the opening of the session, the price has increased quite strongly, which increases the possibility of resistance to stop this increase. If there is a false breakout around the 2,655 level, a minor correction toward resistance could form. However, with prices testing strong support, we may witness a false breakout followed by a corrective move to the 2,660–2,675 region (0.618 Fib retracement) before resuming the downtrend. Rate, share your opinion and questions, let's discuss what's going on with.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by Bentradegold
2
EUR/USD → Consolidates Ahead of Key Fed Interest Rate DecisionHello everyone, Ben here! EUR/USD saw a sluggish upward movement on Monday, drifting towards the upper bounds of its short-term consolidation range just north of 1.0500, though lacking any significant conviction. With relatively limited European data this week, Fiber traders are bracing for a heavy U.S. data docket. In the short term, the trend remains neutral, but prices are consolidating near a critical support level that has held firm for two years. Aggressive rate cuts in Europe are putting pressure on the pair, with expectations set for December 17th-18th. The Fed is widely anticipated to cut the benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points (bps). However, any hawkish signals from the Fed aimed at taming inflation would increase the downside potential for EUR/USD. Support levels: 1.045, 1.033 Resistance levels: 1.060, 1.065 From an interest rate perspective, within the context of a broader downtrend, price has yet to reach the key liquidity zone. Ahead of the news, I anticipate that the price will climb towards 1.060. However, based on both technical and fundamental outlooks, bearish momentum is expected to resume, and a break below the 1.045 support level will solidify the downward trend. Best regards, Bentradegold!
Short
by Bentradegold
GOLD --> Correction Before Potential Further DeclineOANDA:XAUUSD transitioning to a Correction Phase After Last Week's Economic Data. Market participants are generally confirming the bearish nature after returning to the channel. The market is broadly prepared for a 25% rate cut, but traders seem cautious about hints regarding the Fed's stance: whether the Fed will cut interest rates, shift to a wait-and-see approach, or imply a rate hike based on last week's economic data. Traders are eagerly awaiting the Fed's decision, which will be announced on December 18. Gold prices continue to be supported by safe-haven demand amidst ongoing geopolitical risks. Additionally, China's continued gold purchases are providing further momentum for this precious metal. Technically, after a false breakout at the 2721 level, a deep correction is forming, which typically develops into a local downward trend. Prices are approaching the panic zone of 2615-2600. During the Asian trading session, gold maintained its earlier recovery above $2650 as buyers still held control amidst the persistently weak US dollar and sluggish US Treasury yields, with attention on key resistance levels. Prices are heading toward the imbalance zone in the correction process. A swift approach and retest of resistance could trigger a recovery. Traders may enter the profit-taking phase before major news releases. Best regards, Bentradegold!
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by Bentradegold
2
Gold: Short-Term Fluctuations, Long-Term TriumphsAs a market analyst, I observe that global gold prices currently stand at $2,647 per ounce, with February 2025 gold futures on the Comex New York exchange priced at $2,675 per ounce, reflecting a 0.03% increase from the previous day. Over the past week, gold has shown a solid 0.8% gain. From my perspective, gold has had a remarkable year, and while it is now undergoing a phase of correction, I firmly believe this pullback will not last long. My analysis suggests that gold prices will rise further in the coming months. This outlook is supported by several key factors, including loose monetary policies, strong central bank buying activity, and growing demand for safe-haven assets, all of which are likely to drive gold to new record highs this year. I’m also closely following comments from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell after each meeting, as these are crucial for shaping investor expectations for 2025. Inflation remains a pressing issue, still falling short of the Fed’s 2% target. According to Nicky Shiels, a metals strategist at MKS PAMP SA, gold prices could reach $2,500 per ounce, or even as high as $3,000 per ounce, depending on how effectively the Fed manages inflation. In the short term, my projection is that gold will trade within a range of $2,647 to $2,760 per ounce. For the longer term, I align with Goldman Sachs' forecast that gold could achieve $3,000 per ounce by the end of 2025. This aligns with the broader trends I’m observing, where persistent economic uncertainties and evolving monetary policies continue to shape a favorable environment for gold.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Trader-Briannnn
Trading Silver: Sell Rallies Amid XAG/USD’s Bearish MomentumLast week, OANDA:XAGUSD made several attempts to break through the 32.30 resistance zone but failed to sustain any momentum. Much like the price action in OANDA:XAUUSD , Thursday was marked by a bearish engulfing candle, which was even more significant given the preceding day's Doji formation. Following the formation of this bearish engulfing candle, the price dropped sharply, reaching a local low around the 30.30 level, marking a 2,000-pip drop from the previous high. The structure forming since mid-September resembles a potential head and shoulders pattern, although it has not been confirmed yet. If the price breaks below the 30.00 zone, it could put further pressure on the selling side, triggering more downside momentum. In this scenario, the next key support level to watch would be around 27.80, with the measured target for the pattern being approximately 25.00. At this point, resistance is positioned at 31.50, and any rallies approaching this level should be viewed as potential selling opportunities. Sellers may look to capitalize on these rallies, anticipating a continuation of the downtrend. Additionally, the bearish outlook is reinforced by a bearish Pin Bar on the weekly chart, which adds further weight to the negative bias. This combination of factors—bearish patterns on both the daily and weekly charts—suggests that the downward pressure could persist, with further downside potential for XAG/USD in the near term. In summary, traders should remain cautious about buying in the current environment. Instead, the focus should be on selling rallies, especially near key resistance levels, while keeping an eye on the 30.00 support level as a key area for potential breakdown.
OANDA:XAGUSDShort
by Mihai_Iacob
2
GOLD → The FED Rate Decision Ahead: What Should You Do?Dear Traders, Gold (XAUUSD) has made a notable move, successfully testing the strong support level at 2633 before traders shifted into buying mode. As a result, the price broke above 2643, sparking new optimism as upcoming discussions around potential rate cuts from the Federal Reserve (FED) take center stage. Currently, there is a 93% probability that the FED will cut rates by 25 basis points. However, the overarching theme is the FED's stance for the future. Hawkish hints regarding 2025 could influence the rate-cutting trajectory, an aspect the market has only partially priced in. This means any indication of a smaller rate cut could fuel strength for the U.S. dollar. Conversely, a deeper cut could act as a bullish catalyst for gold. The spotlight is firmly on FED Chair Jerome Powell's comments, as they will provide crucial insights into the economic outlook for 2024 amidst the backdrop of Trump-era policies that continue to play a pivotal role. That said, downside risks for gold remain elevated, particularly if the FED maintains a hawkish stance in the current climate. Technical Analysis: At the moment, gold prices are consolidating within the range of 2658 - 2633, with a breakout in either direction likely to bring about a strong momentum-driven move. The market is complex and highly volatile right now, which is why traders are advised to hold off on entering positions before the event. Waiting for volatility to subside can offer better clarity on market direction and safer opportunities. Final Advice: Patience is key in such turbulent times. Avoid getting swayed by short-term noise and focus on acting only after a clear trend emerges following the major event.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by Bentradegold
XAUUSD - sells in play?Here is our in-depth view and update on XAUUSD . Potential opportunities and what to look out for. This is a long-term overview on the pair updated from the previous one. Last time, we took a step back and took a look at XAUUSD from a bigger perspective (H4 time-frame). We are still using H4 to show you the sells we have in play. XAUUSD is currently trading at around 2670s . If you remember our previous long-term view on OANDA:XAUUSD you should remember that after hitting the top of the area at around 2714 (a bit higher) we were automatically looking for sells. We are currently holding a few sell positions at 2680s as the price failed to break higher. Personal opinion: The direction for now is bearish in our opinion. We are looking for sells and we do believe gold could see some massive sell-offs in December before the year of 2024 ends. KEY NOTES - XAUUSD completed the predicted long-term move to the upside. - XAUUSD sells were called at the top of the area (2714). - XAUUSD failed to break higher and is following the long-term analysis. Happy trading! FxPocket
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by FxPocket
3
XauUsd- New leg down towards 2610 support?In my Friday analysis, I highlighted that while the 2660-2665 zone is a technical support, it is too obvious and very likely to fall. This prediction came true as the week closed with Gold trading below this level, forming a strongly bearish daily candle. Additionally, a Pin Bar from the 2700+ resistance zone appeared on the weekly chart, reinforcing the bearish outlook. During the Asian session last night, the price tested the ascending trendline, and as of now, Gold is trading at 2656, hinting at a potential rebound following the 800-pip drop from its recent peak. Looking ahead, if a deeper rebound occurs, the 2680 zone will be a key level for bears to monitor. This area presents an ideal shorting opportunity given its favorable risk-to-reward setup. At the moment, I’m out of the market, waiting to sell into signs of weakness, with 2610 support as my target.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by Mihai_Iacob
18
Trading minute impulseOn the minute timeframe of XAUUSD at the moment we have the completion of the impulse formation. If the price continues to move in the direction of the impulse and the support zones do not allow it to overcome the base of the impulse, it may reach the targets 1 and 2. If the price fails to advance in the direction of the momentum and overcomes the support zone at the base of the momentum, it is very likely that the price will move sideways or against the direction of the momentum.
FXOPEN:XAUUSDShort
by syomking76418
Tia’s Next Move: Opportunity Below $6?Tia/USDT has been lagging recently, and while other altcoins surged strongly after Trump’s election, Tia only recently managed to break above a key resistance level at $6. After reaching the recent high, the price corrected and is now back at the previous resistance level, which has turned into support. I expect this support to hold, and if it does, we could see a new upward leg for Tia. The immediate resistance is in the $7.3–$7.5 zone, and a breakout above this level could pave the way for further gains, potentially reaching the next key resistance levels at $9 or even $12. Buying below $6 could offer a solid entry point with a favorable risk-to-reward ratio.
BINANCE:TIAUSDLong
by Mihai_Iacob
3
DOW JONES 13-year pattern that never failed eyes $48000.Dow Jones (DJI) gave us the best bullish break-out signal exactly 1 year ago (December 13 2023, see chart below), as our buy entry at 36577 hit our 42900 long-term Target last October: At that time we made a clear point why that rally 'shouldn't surprise you' and it is because of this pattern's consistency for so many years. This 1W time-frame chart shows the cyclical behavior of the index, which peaks (Sine Wave top), then pulls back and starts forming a Rising Wedge (Sine Wave bottom) and when it breaks above the Rising Wedge, is where it flashed the bullish break-out signal we got a year ago. As you can see it then starts a gradual rise on the BB20 and completes the Cycle again (Sine Wave top) after roughly a +47% rally. The title mentions that this pattern 'never failed', practically it only broke during the COVID flash crash, which was a non-technical event than occurs once every 100 years. As you can see even the 1W MACD sequences between the cyclical patterns are identical. As a result, our Target towards the Sine Wave peak is 48000. If this is achieved in Q2 2025, based on Dow's current Channel Up (dashed), then we expect the index to remain on those high levels but turn more neutral sideways towards the end of 2025 and then eventual start of the new Bear Phase. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
TVC:DJILong
by TradingShot
TESLA Every pull-back is a buy opportunity. Is $1000 possible?It was almost 6 months ago (June 26, see chart below) when we made a seemingly unrealistic bullish call on Tesla (TSLA) for the time being, setting $400 as our first Target: In fact, it was 8 months ago (April 15, see chart below) when we called Tesla's exact bottom, expecting its own 'Meta recovery moment' following lay offs of more than 10% of staff: Obviously, you can say that you couldn't see that coming. Tesla not only broke above $400 but is about to hit the next psychological level of $500. In order to make better sense of this logarithmic rise and display it in a more effective way to you, we have borrowed some of our Bitcoin analysis tools: the Pi Cycle and the Mayer Multiple Bands. What you see on this chart, are the Pi Cycle trend-lines 1 (orange) and 2 (green), which have been key Resistance and Support levels respectively during the majority of Tesla's historic run, combined with the MMB SD3 above (red trend-line) and MMB SD3 below (black trend-line), which have historically been the extreme Resistance and Support levels respectively. In the middle of all these is the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line), which during the Parabolic Rally phases (like the one we are currently on), is Tesla's major Support. All the above are applied on Tesla's key historic pattern: a Channel Up, defined by its middle Fibonacci retracement levels (0.618, 0.5, 0.382) and its extremes, the -0.382 Fib (caught the June 2019 market bottom) and the 1.382 Fib (caught the February 2014, February 2021 and November 2021 market tops). At the moment the price just broke above Pi Cycle trend-line 1 (orange) and hit the 0.618 Fib. While this is a strong short-term Resistance cluster and may force some investors to take profits, every such pull-back should technically be a buy opportunity from now on, as the market as already started its Parabolic Rally phase. As you can see both previous Parabolic Rally phases hit the 1.382 Fib extension extreme, trading on the way up considerably above the 1W MA50 and with the Pi Cycle trend-line 1 (orange) as its loose Support. Even though another test of that extreme would take the stock to incredibly high capitalization levels and cannot be justified without an applicable expansion of their product lines (from electric vehicles to A.I. and robotics), a $700 - $1000 target range by the end of 2025, doesn't seem so unrealistic if those products hit the market with real world applications. In any case, every break above the Pi Cycle trend-line 1 (orange) has historically started Tesla's largest rallies (exception of course the March 2020 COVID flash crash, which was quickly recovered), so plan your strategy accordingly. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
NASDAQ:TSLALong
by TradingShot
USDJPY → Price Struggles at Resistance, Eyes a PullbackHello, my wonderful friends of Ben! Recently, USDJPY has been struggling to maintain its peak around the 154.00 USD level. The bullish momentum of USDJPY has been hindered by several factors, including the ongoing Fed interest rate meeting. Fundamentally, today is a critical day for the market. At 19:00 GMT, the Fed’s interest rate meeting, with a 93% probability of a 0.25% rate cut decision, will take place. This will make the dollar less attractive. If the dollar starts to adjust downward, it will affect the corresponding currency pairs. However, I do not rule out the possibility that, amidst high volatility, the price could form a retest of the resistance level and a false breakout. Personally, Ben expects the price to consolidate below the resistance area around 155.00, with corrective pressure against the trend dominating in the near future. The current support level is around 152.01. If this level is breached, it could lead USDJPY to a deeper decline, potentially reaching 149.37. Best regards, Bentradegold!
Short
by Bentradegold
3
BITCOIN Next top is going to surprise you but it SHOULDN'T !!Bitcoin (BTCUSD) broke yet another benchmark, the psychological level of $100k. The market cap is growing and many claim that it can't keep rising as the capitalization would be at unrealistic levels. For one capital inflows seem to be very comfortable right now with BTC investments and there are still billions waiting at the side for the right investment in 2025. Fundamentals aside, Bitcoin's historic patterns and price action gives us even more reasons to expect (much) higher prices and a Cycle Top that could surprise many. ** Fibonacci Channel Up ** First of all, we've plotted a Channel Up starting from BTC's first Bear Cycle and displayed the Fibonacci retracement levels on it. As you can see, those fit perfectly and catch each Cycle's tops and bottoms very accurately: 1) June 2011 Top on the 0.618 Fib. November 2011 Bottom on the 0.0 Fib. 2) December 2013 Top on the 1.0 Fib. August 17 2015 Bottom on the 0.382 Fib. 3) December 2017 Top on the 1.0 Fib. December 2018 bottom on the 0.5 Fib. 4) April 2021 Top on the 0.786 Fib. November 2022 bottom on the 0.236 Fib. ** Pi Cycle and MM Bands ** Then we have applied the Pi Cycle trend-lines 1 (orange) and 2 (green), which are key trend Resistance and Support levels respectively, combined with the MMB SD3 above (red trend-line) and MMB SD3 below (black trend-line), which are also historically almost the absolute Resistance and Support levels respectively. In the middle of all these is the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line), which during the Parabolic Rally phases (like the one we are currently on), is Bitcoin's main upward force. ** Covering at least 4 Fib ranges ** As you can see, all Cycles broke above at least the Pi Cycle trend-line 1 (orange) before making a Top. The first two Cycles even hit the MMB SD3 above (red). Also each Cycle has a proportional Fibonacci Channel level range, covering at least 4 Fib bands (as described above). Cycle 1 covered Fibs 0.618, 0.5, 0.382, 0.236 and 0.0. Cycle 2 covered Fibs 1.0, 0.786, 0.618, 0.5, 0.382. Cycle 3 also covered Fibs 1.0, 0.786, 0.618, 0.5, 0.382. Cycle 4 covered Fibs 0.786, 0.618, 0.5, 0.382, 0.236. ** Surprise Top ** The MMB SD3 above (red trend-line) is now below Fib 0.618 and it is less likely for BTC to hit it since Cycle 3 didn't. As a result, it is possible that the next Top will be on Fib 0.5 at best (maximum). If that is succeeded towards the end of 2025, and assuming that the Pi Cycle trend-line 1 (orange) breaks by then as it always has on every previous Cycle, that gives us a target range for the next Cycle Top within $250k - $350k! Do you still think that's unrealistic? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below! ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
CRYPTO:BTCUSDLong
by TradingShot
5