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AUDUSD is trending downThe Australian dollar reaction to this mornings retail sales report was interesting as the move back into negative territory (see economic calendar below) may suggest the Australian economy (households) are feeling the impact of the current restrictive monetary policy. Although one data point does not make a trend, if these spending habits continue to decline, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) fight against lower inflation may follow. The RBA’s Governor Bullock portrayed or more uncertain and cautious message in her statements shown below: “We're in a period where we have to be a bit careful.” “I want to avoid imposing too much and pushing up the jobless.” “We need to ensure that inflation expectations stay anchored.” “Monetary policy is restrictive and is dampening demand.” The PBoC’s Governor Pan on the other may have aided the pro-growth AUD by stating that monetary policy will remain accommodative.
Short
by TinaTradingGold
GBPUSD is trending down but still in the bullish channelThe GBP and Cable in particular has had a mixed start to the week, fluctuating between gains and losses. Markets in general were a bit slow today ahead of what is a relatively busy week on the data front. The UK, however, does not have any high impact data releases with GBP pairs likely to face external threats. The UK faces a quiet week on the data front following the UK Autumn Statement by Chancellor Hunt last week. The GBP enjoyed a decent week particularly against the Greenback. The rest of this week only has medium impact data from the UK. Last week brought PMI data which helped keep the GBP supported with a pledge by Chancellor Hunt during the Autumn statement. The Chancellor confirmed the UK Government plans to put GBP20 billion to work in the economy at a time when other countries in the Euro Area face a difficult task. These developments have left market participants a lot more cautious around rate cuts for 2024. The biggest risk facing the GBP this week will come from a host of BoE policymakers scheduled to speak.
Short
by TinaTradingGold
EURUSD is trending downThe dollar index DXY, a measure of the greenback against a basket of currencies, was last at 103.11, its lowest since Aug. 31. The dollar was track for a loss of more than 3% in November, its worst performance in a year. Market expectation that the Fed's rate increase cycle has finally come to an end has also put downward pressure on the greenback. U.S. rate futures showed about a 25% chance that the Fed could begin cutting rates as early as March and increasing to nearly 45% by May, according to the CME FedWatch tool. "Slowing growth momentum, peak rates, rate cuts next year, and unwinding of long positioning: it's the dynamic feeding a weaker U.S. dollar and driving the entire currency complex," said Kyle Rodda, senior financial market analyst at Capital.com. "Anything that brings that trend into question will change the outlook; however, the bar for that to happen is high," he added, saying the dollar likely has more room to fall. Traders are now eyeing U.S. core personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index - the Fed's preferred measure of inflation - this week for more confirmation that inflation in the world's largest economy is slowing. PCE tops off a slew of other key economic events this week, including Chinese purchasing managers' index (PMI) data and OPEC+ decision. After delaying its policy meeting to this Thursday, OPEC+ is looking at deepening oil production cuts, according to an OPEC+ source.
Short
by TinaTradingGold
It is likely that gold will fall again after encountering resistGold prices climbed on Monday, buoyed by the drop in U.S. yields and the U.S. dollar’s softness. With recent performance in mind, XAU/USD has risen more than 8% since October, firmly eclipsing its 200-day simple moving average and ascending beyond the psychological $2,000 level – two technical signals that have strengthened the metal’s constructive bias. For stronger conviction in the bullish thesis and to validate the potential for further upward momentum, a clear and decisive move above $2,010/$2,015 is required – a major resistance zone that has consistently thwarted advances since the beginning of the year. While clearing this hurdle might pose a challenge for bulls, a breakout could catalyze a rally towards $2,060, followed by $2,085, May’s high. In the event that gold gets rejected to the downside from its current position, the asset might trend towards support spanning from $1,980 to $1,975. Prices could potentially stabilize in this area on a bearish reversal, but a push below this floor could lead to a retreat towards the 200-day simple moving average situated around the $1,950 mark. Beneath this threshold, attention might refocus on $1,937. XAUUSD XAUUSD SELL 2016 - 2018 ✔️TP1: 2012 ✔️TP2: 2008 🚫SL: 2021
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by TinaTradingGold
Downtrend when meeting resistance of GBPUSDSterling was last 0.06% lower at $1.2598, but hovered near Friday's over two-month peak of $1.2615, on data last week showing that British companies unexpectedly reported a marginal return to growth in November after three months of contraction. "That indicates the resilience of the UK economy despite the very aggressive monetary policy tightening from the Bank of England," said Carol Kong, a currency strategist at Commonwealth Bank of Australia (CBA). "But we still expect the UK economy to weaken and experience a short-lived recession." The pound was on track for a roughly 3.7% gain for the month, its largest monthly gain in a year, aided by a falling U.S. dollar.
Short
by TinaTradingGold
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GBPUSD will decrease when it hits resistanceGBPUSD is a bit clearer as we can see a clear pattern of higher highs and higher lows this week. The question will be whether bulls have one more push to the upside and push Cable toward the 1.2600 handle. If we do break below the 50-day MA we have support at the 1.2400 mark and lower at the 1.2360 mark. A selloff ahead of the weekend may also be on the cards as this would be down to profit taking as buyers who got in during the early part of the week may want to close out before the weekend. A lot will depend on the return of liquidity tomorrow and how much risk market participants are willing to take before the weekend.
Short
by TinaTradingGold
EURUSD has an uptrendThe dollar index DXY, which measures the U.S. currency with six peers, eased 0.029% to 103.73, staying close to the two-and-a-half month low of 103.17 it touched earlier this week. The index is down 2.8% for the month, on course for its weakest monthly performance in a year on rising expectations that the Federal Reserve is done raising interest rates and could start cutting rates next year. Markets have dialled back expectations of Fed rate cuts in 2024, with futures now showing a 26% chance that the Fed cuts its target rate at the March 2024 policy meeting, according to CME Group's FedWatch tool. That compares with a 33% chance last week. The euro stood at $1.0904, having risen 0.16% overnight after a series of preliminary surveys showed recession in Germany may be shallower than expected, which offset a downbeat reading of French business activity.
Long
by TinaTradingGold
Gold trading ideas todayWorld gold spot price is around 1,991.9 USD/ounce, down 0.92 USD/ounce compared to overnight. Gold futures price for February 2024 on the Comex New York floor is at 2,013.3 USD/ounce. However, experts commented that the decline in gold prices was stopped by expectations that the US Federal Reserve (Fed) had ended the cycle of raising interest rates. Lower interest rates typically boost gold prices because they reduce the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets. UBS analyst Giovanni Staunovo said that falling prices are a good buying opportunity because at some point the Fed will cut interest rates. This expert predicts that the gold price will increase to 2,150 USD/ounce by the end of 2024. OANDA:XAUUSD BUY 1990 - 1988 TP1: 1995 TP2: 2000 SL : 1983
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by TinaTradingGold
EURUSD's uptrend returnsThe EUR/USD currency pair remains steady around 1.0900 as markets anticipate the release of Eurozone Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) figures, with investors looking for signs of economic recovery in area. Upcoming data, expected to show manufacturing PMI at 43.4, services PMI at 48.1 and composite PMI at 46.8, could provide insight into the economic health of the US. Eurozone amid challenging global conditions. In recent statements, Bundesbank President Joachim Nagel indicated that interest rates in the Eurozone may be approaching a peak, suggesting a cautious approach to further increases. ECB Vice President Luis de Guindos reinforced this view by backing a data-driven approach and downplaying discussions of possible interest rate cuts in the near future. Investors and analysts will be closely watching the PMI figures for signs of the Eurozone's economic trajectory, which could influence the European Central Bank's monetary policy decisions. Europe in the coming months. A better-than-expected PMI result could bolster confidence in the euro, while weaker figures could raise concerns about lingering economic headwinds in the region.
Long
by TinaTradingGold
XAUUSD : TODAY'S GOLD TRADING STRATEGY The movement in the precious metal comes amid global economic sentiment hit by a weakening US dollar and speculation about a more dovish policy stance by the Federal Reserve. The Comex gold market has been fueled by these expectations. According to forecasts from CME's Fedwatch tool, there is about a one-third chance that the Federal Reserve will begin cutting interest rates as early as March of next year, with the balance expected by the end of 2023. Further affecting market dynamics is lower-than-expected US bond yields, which are currently lower than Fed interest rates. What's different is that this has brought up discussions about the possibility of demonetization in the near future. Adding to the global economic story are China's pledges to argue for fiscal measures to strengthen the economic recovery. These solutions are spearheaded by the initiatives of Finance Minister Lan Fo'an. However, the cautionary tone was also struck by Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin, who warned against a slow assessment of the timing of the cake that could require prolonged high interest rates.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by TinaTradingGold
LI Auto Options Ahead of EarningsIf you haven`t sold the Top on LI: or ahead of the previous earnings: Then analyzing the options chain and the chart patterns of LI Auto prior to the earnings report this week, I would consider purchasing the 38usd strike price in the money Calls with an expiration date of 2023-11-24, for a premium of approximately $2.93. If these options prove to be profitable prior to the earnings release, I would sell at least half of them. Looking forward to read your opinion about it.
NASDAQ:LILong
by TopgOptions
TTD The Trade Desk Options Ahead of EarningsIf you haven`t sold TTD on this bearish chart pattern: Then analyzing the options chain and the chart patterns of TTD The Trade Desk prior to the earnings report this week, I would consider purchasing the 75usd strike price Puts with an expiration date of 2023-11-10, for a premium of approximately $3.60. If these options prove to be profitable prior to the earnings release, I would sell at least half of them. Looking forward to read your opinion about it.
NASDAQ:TTDShort
by TopgOptions
EURUSD trading strategyThe euro to USD exchange rate increased 0.06% at 1.0946. The dollar fell to its lowest level in more than two months, falling deeper than last week as investors largely believed that the Federal Reserve The state has completed its rate hike cycle and is looking ahead to when it might begin cutting interest rates. According to CME's FedWatch, the market is currently trying to determine when the Fed might begin cutting interest rates and is currently pricing in a more than 50% chance of a cut of at least 25 basis points in May. Joseph Trevisani, senior analyst at FXStreet.com said that credit, equity and currency markets are convinced that the Fed has completed raising interest rates, but the Fed is not yet ready to say so. Therefore, the greenback is gradually weakening, simply because the Fed is trying its best to decide to raise interest rates.
Short
by TinaTradingGold
LOW Lowe's Companies Options Ahead of EarningsIf you haven`t sold LOW ahead of the previous earnings: Then analyzing the options chain and the chart patterns of RUM Rumble prior to the earnings report this week, I would consider purchasing the 210usd strike price Calls with an expiration date of 2023-12-15, for a premium of approximately $3.70. If these options prove to be profitable prior to the earnings release, I would sell at least half of them. Looking forward to read your opinion about it.
NYSE:LOWLong
by TopgOptions
EURUSD: Will fall to 1.07600 then recoverEUR/USD fell again on Wednesday, after mounting a bullish burst in the previous trading session. However, the Euro currently maintains a positive outlook against the US dollar as it continuously creates a series of higher highs and lows and is still trading above important MA lines. To maintain the uptrend, the pair needs to hold above the 200 and 100-day SMA, around 1.0765. If this support holds, it opens up the potential for a rally to 1.0900, beyond that to Fibonacci resistance at 1.0960 and 1.1075. In case, the sellers return and push the price below the 1.0765 area, EUR/USD will change to a downtrend in the short term. In the above case, support will be at 1.0650, if the price continues to weaken then support at the 1.0570 trend line will come into view. EUR continues to fall today then will bounce back and increase sharply to reach a new peak in the future.
by NicoTradingMaster
GBPUSD Will recover after sharp decline“The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is committed to achieving a monetary policy stance that is restrictive enough to reduce inflation to 2% over time; We are not confident that we have reached such a position,” Mr. Powell said in his opening speech to a policy panel at the 24th annual Jacques Polak Research Conference, organized by the International Monetary Fund. position. The Fed chief acknowledged that US inflation has fallen over the past year but said it was still "far above our 2% target", Powell said, but signaled the Fed was not ready to accept that inflation was sustainable low level. Inflation “has given us some fake news,” he added. On the H4 frame, the RSI indicator dropped to 40, showing that selling pressure is accumulating. Important support is gradually forming at the 1.2200/20 area, with the 23.6% Fibo level of the down phase from the peak of September 5 to the bottom of November, the downtrend line and MA lines 100 and 200. If this support is broken, , the next target for sellers will be 1.2130 and 1.2100.
by MrTrongVo
Comment on EURUSD: Revolving around the 1.0700 areaAccording to the governor of the Croatian central bank, “if our current forecasts come true, we will have a soft landing with little loss, meaning no economic recession and a significant increase in unemployment ”. “We cannot be certain that it will continue to be that way until we achieve our goals, but in my view, a soft landing remains a central scenario,” he added. . Inflation fell to 2.9% last month, from a peak of more than 10%, after the ECB raised interest rates at the fastest pace in history. Officials have warned that achieving the 2% target remains difficult and that the economy is at risk of a mild recession after shrinking 0.1% in the third quarter. The war between Israel and Hamas is a major source of instability because it threatens to drive up energy costs. However, according to Mr. Vujicic, the extent of the impact on the Eurozone economy is "hard to predict" at this time. “First, we have to see whether such a shock will occur. If so, what is the nature of that shock and what is its magnitude? And then we will try to estimate the possible impact on price developments and act accordingly.”
by MrTrongVo