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GOLD : Gold will continue to increase to the highest levelGold prices are in a slight decline. The reason may be due to profit taking after increasing by more than 1% the previous day. The release of lower-than-expected US CPI and Retail Sales data for April has led to a change in expectations about the Fed's future interest rate path - an important factor contributing to the direction of gold prices. . Lower-than-expected CPI data shows signs of cooling inflation, meaning the time for the Fed to lower interest rates may come sooner. According to the CME FedWatch tool, there is a 75% chance that the Fed will start cutting interest rates from its September meeting. This number is much higher than the 65% level before the announcement, according to FXStreet editor Lallalit Srijandorn. However, the outlook for the precious metal remains positive as demand from central banks - especially in emerging markets - continues to be strong, geopolitical risks remain present and trade concerns remain strong. Global trade is unstable due to political factors. In fact, according to data from the World Gold Council (WGC), gold demand increased 3% to 1,238 tons in Q1, the strongest increase since 2016.
TVC:GOLDLong
by SantaTradeGold
XAUUSD : Gold has the ability to reach new heightsMore progress in deflation remains to be seen Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee welcomed the drop in inflation in April but said deflation progress needs to be firmer. Speaking Wednesday after the CPI excluding food and energy prices fell for the first time in six months, Goolsbee expected more such good data to come before making a decision to cut interest rates. “Inflation data improved quite a bit compared to what we expected, but still higher than where it was in the second half of last year,” Goolsbee said in an interview on the radio show Marketplace. “Because So, more progress still needs to be recorded in the deflation process.” The Chicago Fed president, who is not voting on policy this year, called the deflationary path bumpy and pointed to housing inflation as a key indicator he is watching. Fed officials have downgraded expectations for a first rate cut, stressing the need to keep rates high for longer amid persistent inflation.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by SantaTradeGold
DXY : The USD continues to weakenThe USD plummeted as expectations of the Fed lowering interest rates increased after US inflation data The dollar slid to a multi-month low on Thursday after U.S. core inflation hit a three-year low and retail sales were flat, raising expectations of lower interest rates in the economy. largest economy in the world. US government bonds recovered after economic data along with the sell-off of Japanese bonds. The gap between US and Japanese 10-year government bond yields narrowed nearly 20bps this week. The DXY index recorded its biggest decline of the year, falling 0.75% and penetrating below the MA 200 line. DXY is currently trading around its 5-week low at 104.17 at the beginning of the Asian session.
TVC:DXYShort
by SantaTradeGold
DXY : The USD will continue to weakenOn the morning of May 15, the State Bank (SBV) announced the central exchange rate USD/VND at 24,269 VND, an increase of 3 VND. The exchange rate range allowed for transactions at Commercial Banks ranges from 23,400 - 25,450 VND. The USD/VND exchange rate was also brought to the trading range of 23,400 - 25,450 VND by the SBV Exchange. This morning's exchange rate increased slightly at commercial banks. Specifically, Vietcombank has a buying level of 25,152 and a selling level of 25,482, an increase of 3 dong in both buying and selling directions compared to yesterday. Meanwhile, the exchange rate on the free market increased more strongly. In Hanoi at 05:15, the exchange rate fluctuated around 25,768 - 25,848 VND, an increase of 10 VND on the buying side and an increase of 20 VND on the selling side compared to yesterday. The DXY index yesterday almost lost the 105.00 mark after the PPI data was released. Currency pairs also fluctuated accordingly, even the USD/VND exchange rate in the forex market also decreased sharply. However, somehow miraculously, the listed exchange rate still increased slightly.
TVC:DXYShort
by SantaTradeGold
XAUUSD : Gold is pushing towards record territoryGold prices steady amid mixed US PPI data, investors ready for tonight's CPI data Gold's rally continues after falling on Monday at $2,357, but has yet to surpass the recent high of $2,378, recorded on May 10. This could cause the XAU/ USD moves sideways within a certain price range. According to the RSI indicator, the current trend is beneficial for investors holding gold. Therefore, the first level of resistance for XAU/USD will be the high of May 10, which is $2,378. If surpassed, the next level will be $2,400, followed immediately by the April 19 high of $2,417 and the historical peak of $2,431. Conversely, if bears prevail and push the price below $2,359, it could lead to a decline to the May 9 low of $2,306, then to $2,300. Once crossed, the next stop will be the 50-day SMA at $2,249.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by SantaTradeGold
DXY : USD is forecast to weaken at the end of the yearFor USD, the weekend before May 10, the SBV announced the central exchange rate of 24,271 VND, an increase of 6 VND compared to the previously listed rate, the reference exchange rate at the SBV Exchange was at 23,400 - 25,450 VND. . Buying prices at commercial banks currently fluctuate between 25,120 - 25,225 VND while selling prices reach 25,484 VND. On the black market, the buying and selling price of USD is at 25,670 - 25,750 VND. Despite trading in a week lacking directional data, the DXY index remained quite volatile and overall had a bullish week of trading. The index is currently still trading above the key support level of 105.00 at the time of writing. This week, the market will be quite busy when the US economic calendar thickens with PPI, CPI and Retail Sales,... announced. Most important will be the CPI, which has a significant influence on market expectations of the Fed cutting interest rates.
TVC:DXYShort
by SantaTradeGold
Gold is likely to continue to increase strongly todayGold price (XAU/USD) began to increase in price in the US session on May 9, rising to nearly 2,350 USD, after a number of major central banks decided to cut interest rates or signaled the possibility of strong cuts. more in the future. In addition, geopolitical risks along with increased demand from Asian central banks and investors also create momentum for gold. This morning, May 10, world gold continued to increase slightly, currently trading above 2,350 USD. Perhaps this unexpected increase is part of the reason why the domestic gold price reached a new historic peak. The SPDR Gold Shares fund has had no new structural activity for 2 consecutive days, holdings remained unchanged at 830.47 tons.
TVC:GOLDLong
by SantaTradeGold
XAUUSD : Gold is turning around and increasing stronglyThe number of applications for unemployment benefits increased, but will the Fed "turn around" to reduce interest rates? Gold prices regained momentum on Thursday and rose more than 1% as US government bond yields fell, reducing the appeal of the USD. Weaker U.S. labor market data raises the possibility of the Fed cutting interest rates despite dealing with inflationary pressures. Gold prices traded above $2,330 after bouncing from the day's low at $2,306. On Thursday, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) said the number of Americans filing for unemployment benefits rose more than estimated and an earlier report suggested the economy was weakening. This could influence the Fed in future monetary policy decisions after admitting that it is focused on dual goals - ensuring employment and inflation. Meanwhile, a slew of Fed officials appeared in the news this week. San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly said getting inflation down to the Fed's target will be a difficult road. She added that the past three months' data left policymakers uncertain about future inflation. On Monday, Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin commented that recent data were not very encouraging, and emphasized that inflation control was not yet complete. Elsewhere, New York Fed President John Williams noted that consumers are still spending, showing that the economy maintains strength despite slowing growth. On Tuesday, Neel Kashkari, President of the Minneapolis Fed, predicted that the most likely scenario would be to keep interest rates unchanged in 2024, and said progress in curbing inflation had stalled. Yesterday, Boston Fed President Susan Collins also spoke up. She expressed optimism about being able to bring inflation down to the target level of 2%, and emphasized that the current monetary policy is well-oriented and moderately tightened.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by SantaTradeGold
XAUUSD : Gold is too safe until the end of the weekThe world gold price is currently trading around 2,310 USD/oz and is still in a short-term sideway phase. It's clear that the USD's recovery due to recent "hawkish" statements by Fed officials is creating certain resistance. According to TD Securities commodity strategist Daniel Ghali: "The market is currently 'waiting for a push' to break out, but the downward momentum seems to be limited by the caution of fund managers. " This comment shows that the general psychology of investors is cautious due to the lack of clear signals about market trends. On the other hand, according to the World Gold Council, in April, PBOC bought an additional 1.9 tons of gold, recording the 18th consecutive month of net buying. In fact, the pace of net gold purchases by many central banks in Asia, including the PBOC, has slowed down. However, with net buying still occurring, this is still creating momentum for gold. In the long term, many experts still predict that gold is in an "uptrend" and could rise to 3,000 USD/oz (more than 90 million VND/tael) next year and possibly even to 4,000 USD/oz (more than 120 million VND/tael). VND/tael) and even more than 10,000 USD/oz (more than 300 million VND/tael) in the following years.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by SantaTradeGold
DXY : DXY is likely to weaken following the dataAs of the time of writing, the DXY index extended its recovery for the fourth consecutive session, trading around 105.50 and at the same time putting pressure on major currency pairs. In the early morning of May 9, the State Bank announced that the central exchange rate USD/VND increased by 6 VND, currently at 24,249 VND. The reference exchange rate at the State Bank's Buying - Selling Exchange remains unchanged at: 23,400 VND - 25,450 VND.
TVC:DXYShort
by SantaTradeGold
GOLD : Gold will increase unexpectedly in the near futureAccording to the World Gold Council, first-quarter gold purchases by central banks were the heaviest in history. Some market observers say gold's 12% gain this year is partly driven by central bank demand. According to Goldman Sachs, central banks tend to buy gold in the long term and it is possible that emerging market countries may buy more gold. “Emerging-market central banks are driving the gold rush,” Goldman researchers said. However, their gold holdings still account for only 6% of reserves, half that of developed countries." Gold prices are also driven by demand from Asian investors, especially in China, where demand for gold is growing due to an underperforming economy and gloomy markets. Rising geopolitical risks and conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East have also boosted gold purchases as a safe haven asset. Spot gold decreased 0.6% to 2,310.34 USD/ounce. The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index increased slightly. Silver, palladium and platinum all fell in price.
TVC:GOLDLong
by SantaTradeGold
XAUUSD : Gold waits for a strong breakthroughGold prices opened the week with a positive signal, recording a slight increase. However, investor sentiment became more cautious due to mixed comments from Fed officials about the upcoming monetary tightening roadmap, while also being pressured by the upward trend of the USD. The sparse US economic calendar will keep investors focused on the speech from Fed officials this week, following the US jobs report released last Friday. ActivTrades senior analyst Ricardo Evangelista said that employment data is much weaker than forecast and slowing wage growth will cause the FED to consider loosening monetary policy soon. After the data was released, the CME FedWatch Tool showed that the likelihood of the Fed cutting interest rates by 0.25% in September increased from 55% before the report to 85%.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by SantaTradeGold
XAUUSD : Gold will likely return to its old peakWorld gold price yesterday recorded a high of 2,332.22 USD and closed the session up nearly 1% to 2,323.99 USD. Do you find it strange? This number must have been chosen by the driver. Along with that, the domestic gold price continues to set a new peak. World gold prices have increased more than 12% in 2024 thanks to expectations that major central banks will start reducing interest rates. Coupled with new concerns that the Middle East conflict could flare up again between Israel and Hamas, this could provide a significant boost to gold. However, this factor has been quite lackluster in recent times, instead driven by economic data and gold demand from central banks. Gold prices rose nearly 1% on Monday, supported by an improvement in risk appetite due to rising expectations that the Fed may start easing policy sooner than expected. This follows last Friday's Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report, which showed the economy is still creating jobs but at a slower pace. Along with that, economic data from China, a major gold market, still shows positive signals. Indian gold buyers are price sensitive, causing demand to frequently decline when spot gold prices (excluding import taxes) in India increase. However, according to Bank of America, the recent stabilization of gold prices has helped the market regain balance, as shown by the increased difference between domestic gold prices in India and London gold prices. 2024 will see the strongest net gold purchases by central banks ever, contributing to a surge in global bullion demand in the first quarter. According to a World Gold Council (WGC) report published on Tuesday, these institutions added 290 tonnes of gold to their official reserves in the first three months of the year, with China being a net buyer. largest gold, according to Bloomberg. Therefore, the outlook for this precious metal remains positive in the remainder of Q2, especially the motivation coming from net gold purchases from central banks, especially from China, according to Bloomberg.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by SantaTradeGold
DXY : Weakening USD creates momentum for goldThe DXY index is currently trading around the 105.00 mark, recording a slight decrease during Monday's trading session. The dollar remains supported by persistent inflation concerns, as Fed Chairman Jerome Powell has warned. However, the weaker-than-expected jobs report released last Friday showed signs that the US economy may be slowing and expectations that the Fed will cut interest rates in September are higher than ever. out, there is a potential risk of pushing the USD even lower. The US economy is currently painting a rather complicated picture. On one hand, consumer demand remains strong and the labor market is stable. However, April employment data showed some signs of weakness, making investors worried about future economic growth. However, Fed Chairman Jorome Powell's caution, highlighting trend instability and uncertain progress in controlling inflation, could help boost the USD if upcoming economic data shows signs of positive.
TVC:DXYShort
by SantaTradeGold
XAUUSD : Gold is likely to continue rising during the weekWorld gold increased slightly after falling for two consecutive weeks World gold prices fell for the second consecutive week with the closing price just slightly above the threshold of 2,300 USD at the end of last week. Set in the context of relatively conservative fluctuations after important news, notably the Fed's monetary policy statement in mid-week and US employment data released on Friday. The decline in gold surprised many traders, as they expected a stronger reaction in the context of a sharp drop in US government bond yields after Fed Chairman Jerome Powell revealed the possibility of monetary easing in the coming months. future, despite concerns about rising inflation. This somewhat "dovish" view has boosted market psychology, directing capital flows to risky assets instead of haven assets like gold.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by SantaTradeGold
DXY : USD will decline after many strong fluctuations.The DXY index fell sharply last week, reaching its lowest level since April 10. This sell-off mainly stemmed from a decrease in US government bond yields after the Fed's somewhat "dovish" statement and weaker-than-expected employment data. Accordingly, DXY fell nearly 1%. However, the weekend session saw a rather strong withdrawal, somewhat narrowing the downward momentum. Accordingly, the major currency pairs also have similar fluctuations.
TVC:DXYShort
by SantaTradeGold