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XAUUSD : Gold is turning around and increasing stronglyThe number of applications for unemployment benefits increased, but will the Fed "turn around" to reduce interest rates? Gold prices regained momentum on Thursday and rose more than 1% as US government bond yields fell, reducing the appeal of the USD. Weaker U.S. labor market data raises the possibility of the Fed cutting interest rates despite dealing with inflationary pressures. Gold prices traded above $2,330 after bouncing from the day's low at $2,306. On Thursday, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) said the number of Americans filing for unemployment benefits rose more than estimated and an earlier report suggested the economy was weakening. This could influence the Fed in future monetary policy decisions after admitting that it is focused on dual goals - ensuring employment and inflation. Meanwhile, a slew of Fed officials appeared in the news this week. San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly said getting inflation down to the Fed's target will be a difficult road. She added that the past three months' data left policymakers uncertain about future inflation. On Monday, Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin commented that recent data were not very encouraging, and emphasized that inflation control was not yet complete. Elsewhere, New York Fed President John Williams noted that consumers are still spending, showing that the economy maintains strength despite slowing growth. On Tuesday, Neel Kashkari, President of the Minneapolis Fed, predicted that the most likely scenario would be to keep interest rates unchanged in 2024, and said progress in curbing inflation had stalled. Yesterday, Boston Fed President Susan Collins also spoke up. She expressed optimism about being able to bring inflation down to the target level of 2%, and emphasized that the current monetary policy is well-oriented and moderately tightened.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by SantaTradeGold
XAUUSD : Gold is too safe until the end of the weekThe world gold price is currently trading around 2,310 USD/oz and is still in a short-term sideway phase. It's clear that the USD's recovery due to recent "hawkish" statements by Fed officials is creating certain resistance. According to TD Securities commodity strategist Daniel Ghali: "The market is currently 'waiting for a push' to break out, but the downward momentum seems to be limited by the caution of fund managers. " This comment shows that the general psychology of investors is cautious due to the lack of clear signals about market trends. On the other hand, according to the World Gold Council, in April, PBOC bought an additional 1.9 tons of gold, recording the 18th consecutive month of net buying. In fact, the pace of net gold purchases by many central banks in Asia, including the PBOC, has slowed down. However, with net buying still occurring, this is still creating momentum for gold. In the long term, many experts still predict that gold is in an "uptrend" and could rise to 3,000 USD/oz (more than 90 million VND/tael) next year and possibly even to 4,000 USD/oz (more than 120 million VND/tael). VND/tael) and even more than 10,000 USD/oz (more than 300 million VND/tael) in the following years.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by SantaTradeGold
DXY : DXY is likely to weaken following the dataAs of the time of writing, the DXY index extended its recovery for the fourth consecutive session, trading around 105.50 and at the same time putting pressure on major currency pairs. In the early morning of May 9, the State Bank announced that the central exchange rate USD/VND increased by 6 VND, currently at 24,249 VND. The reference exchange rate at the State Bank's Buying - Selling Exchange remains unchanged at: 23,400 VND - 25,450 VND.
TVC:DXYShort
by SantaTradeGold
GOLD : Gold will increase unexpectedly in the near futureAccording to the World Gold Council, first-quarter gold purchases by central banks were the heaviest in history. Some market observers say gold's 12% gain this year is partly driven by central bank demand. According to Goldman Sachs, central banks tend to buy gold in the long term and it is possible that emerging market countries may buy more gold. “Emerging-market central banks are driving the gold rush,” Goldman researchers said. However, their gold holdings still account for only 6% of reserves, half that of developed countries." Gold prices are also driven by demand from Asian investors, especially in China, where demand for gold is growing due to an underperforming economy and gloomy markets. Rising geopolitical risks and conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East have also boosted gold purchases as a safe haven asset. Spot gold decreased 0.6% to 2,310.34 USD/ounce. The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index increased slightly. Silver, palladium and platinum all fell in price.
TVC:GOLDLong
by SantaTradeGold
XAUUSD : Gold waits for a strong breakthroughGold prices opened the week with a positive signal, recording a slight increase. However, investor sentiment became more cautious due to mixed comments from Fed officials about the upcoming monetary tightening roadmap, while also being pressured by the upward trend of the USD. The sparse US economic calendar will keep investors focused on the speech from Fed officials this week, following the US jobs report released last Friday. ActivTrades senior analyst Ricardo Evangelista said that employment data is much weaker than forecast and slowing wage growth will cause the FED to consider loosening monetary policy soon. After the data was released, the CME FedWatch Tool showed that the likelihood of the Fed cutting interest rates by 0.25% in September increased from 55% before the report to 85%.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by SantaTradeGold
XAUUSD : Gold will likely return to its old peakWorld gold price yesterday recorded a high of 2,332.22 USD and closed the session up nearly 1% to 2,323.99 USD. Do you find it strange? This number must have been chosen by the driver. Along with that, the domestic gold price continues to set a new peak. World gold prices have increased more than 12% in 2024 thanks to expectations that major central banks will start reducing interest rates. Coupled with new concerns that the Middle East conflict could flare up again between Israel and Hamas, this could provide a significant boost to gold. However, this factor has been quite lackluster in recent times, instead driven by economic data and gold demand from central banks. Gold prices rose nearly 1% on Monday, supported by an improvement in risk appetite due to rising expectations that the Fed may start easing policy sooner than expected. This follows last Friday's Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report, which showed the economy is still creating jobs but at a slower pace. Along with that, economic data from China, a major gold market, still shows positive signals. Indian gold buyers are price sensitive, causing demand to frequently decline when spot gold prices (excluding import taxes) in India increase. However, according to Bank of America, the recent stabilization of gold prices has helped the market regain balance, as shown by the increased difference between domestic gold prices in India and London gold prices. 2024 will see the strongest net gold purchases by central banks ever, contributing to a surge in global bullion demand in the first quarter. According to a World Gold Council (WGC) report published on Tuesday, these institutions added 290 tonnes of gold to their official reserves in the first three months of the year, with China being a net buyer. largest gold, according to Bloomberg. Therefore, the outlook for this precious metal remains positive in the remainder of Q2, especially the motivation coming from net gold purchases from central banks, especially from China, according to Bloomberg.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by SantaTradeGold
DXY : Weakening USD creates momentum for goldThe DXY index is currently trading around the 105.00 mark, recording a slight decrease during Monday's trading session. The dollar remains supported by persistent inflation concerns, as Fed Chairman Jerome Powell has warned. However, the weaker-than-expected jobs report released last Friday showed signs that the US economy may be slowing and expectations that the Fed will cut interest rates in September are higher than ever. out, there is a potential risk of pushing the USD even lower. The US economy is currently painting a rather complicated picture. On one hand, consumer demand remains strong and the labor market is stable. However, April employment data showed some signs of weakness, making investors worried about future economic growth. However, Fed Chairman Jorome Powell's caution, highlighting trend instability and uncertain progress in controlling inflation, could help boost the USD if upcoming economic data shows signs of positive.
TVC:DXYShort
by SantaTradeGold
XAUUSD : Gold is likely to continue rising during the weekWorld gold increased slightly after falling for two consecutive weeks World gold prices fell for the second consecutive week with the closing price just slightly above the threshold of 2,300 USD at the end of last week. Set in the context of relatively conservative fluctuations after important news, notably the Fed's monetary policy statement in mid-week and US employment data released on Friday. The decline in gold surprised many traders, as they expected a stronger reaction in the context of a sharp drop in US government bond yields after Fed Chairman Jerome Powell revealed the possibility of monetary easing in the coming months. future, despite concerns about rising inflation. This somewhat "dovish" view has boosted market psychology, directing capital flows to risky assets instead of haven assets like gold.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by SantaTradeGold
DXY : USD will decline after many strong fluctuations.The DXY index fell sharply last week, reaching its lowest level since April 10. This sell-off mainly stemmed from a decrease in US government bond yields after the Fed's somewhat "dovish" statement and weaker-than-expected employment data. Accordingly, DXY fell nearly 1%. However, the weekend session saw a rather strong withdrawal, somewhat narrowing the downward momentum. Accordingly, the major currency pairs also have similar fluctuations.
TVC:DXYShort
by SantaTradeGold
XAUUSD : Gold is falling to create upward momentum todayThe greenback continues to weaken but gold is not really benefiting Gold price is currently quite calm around the 2,305 USD mark. Optimistic market sentiment, falling US government bond yields and a weakening USD are the factors that are having the main impact on this precious metal. Investors are continuing to evaluate Chairman Jerome Powell's comments on Wednesday and the Fed's decision to leave interest rates unchanged. Previously, investors predicted the Fed would take a more "hawkish" stance. However, the reality is the opposite and the price of gold has skyrocketed to nearly 2,330 USD. However, gold could not maintain this increase and turned down afterwards and is currently trading around the $2,305 mark, just below the 20 EMA.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by SantaTradeGold
GOLD : Gold's ability to increase is still thereXAU/USD has met the minimum requirement to complete a bearish "Measured Move" pattern after reaching the 0.618 Fibonacci level of wave C at $2,286. This means that gold prices will likely go up in the near future. This pattern is made up of three waves in a zig-zag pattern. The end of wave C, which is also the final wave, can be estimated based on the length of wave A and will usually be equal to the length of wave A or equal to the 0.681 Fibonacci ratio of wave A. If the price penetrates the 0.681 Fibonacci level At 2,285 USD, it is possible that wave C in this model will be equal to wave A and the target will be 2,245 USD or also the Fibonacci 1,000 threshold. In general, the trend of gold prices is still increasing in both the medium and long term. If it successfully breaks through the cluster of SMA lines and the peak of wave B at around 2,350 USD, it could open a new price increase and XAU/USD could completely return to test the high of 2,400 USD. However, the Fed did not forget to send the market a "hawkish" signal on the issue of inflation, specifically: "In recent months, there has been no significant progress towards the 2% inflation target. " This makes some investors concerned about the possibility of the Fed raising interest rates in the future, which could negatively affect gold prices.
TVC:GOLD
by SantaTradeGold
XAUUSD : Gold is back on the rise once againThe current gold price is trading around 2,323 USD/ounce. The golden boy immediately regained the mark of 2,300 USD/ounce after yesterday's sharp decline to 2,285 USD/ounce. The spot price of gold (XAU/USD) soared last night to more than 2,328 USD/ounce after Fed Chairman Jerome Powell spoke. Mr. Powell affirmed that cutting interest rates now is inappropriate until inflation shows clear signs of returning to the 2% target. He also added that this year's inflation data is "not convincing enough" to change the Fed's stance. Gold prices rose slightly after the Fed took a less hawkish stance than expected by keeping interest rates unchanged, and Japanese authorities were suspected of intervening to support the Yen, damaging the USD.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by SantaTradeGold
XAUUSD : Gold breached the $2,300/ounce mark!Gold prices lost the $2,300 mark last night as data from the US showed that labor costs are rising, thus pushing up inflationary pressure. As a result, the Fed will need to be more patient in lowering interest rates, as Fed Chairman Jerome Powell announced two weeks ago. Gold price is trading at $2,292/ounce, up slightly by 0.27% after falling more than 2% on Tuesday, in the context of rising US government bond yields and a stronger USD. Data from the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) shows that the Labor Cost Index (ECI) skyrocketed in April. In addition, US consumer confidence also continued to decline, according to the monthly report. 4 by the American Conference Board (CB). It is still too early to conclude that the uptrend has ended. Although a drop below the $2,300 mark could open the door to a deeper correction, at least as long as the price has not completely breached the April 23 low at $2,291. The downtrend will increase if the price loses this mark and will be even more negative if the EMA 50 at $2,240 is breached. Currently, XAU/USD has broken through the EMA 20 and beyond is the rising trendline, which is also the lower boundary of the symmetrical triangle model. Not to mention, the RSI indicator is pointing down and fluctuating below 50. However, investors should not be too pessimistic. In case the price rebounds, the first resistance will be the 20 EMA at $2,215 and beyond that is the April 26 high at $2,252. The buyers will need to overcome these two barriers to consolidate their formation before considering the next increases.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by SantaTradeGold
XAUUSD : Gold will grow strongly again, right?Gold prices are expected to increase for the third consecutive month ahead of the Fed meeting Gold prices are on track to increase for the third consecutive month thanks to strong demand from central banks. Attention is now on the Fed's interest rate decision meeting this week, where policymakers are expected to take a hawkish stance. As of early Asian session, spot gold price was stable around 2,330 USD/oz - up nearly 5% over the month - ahead of the FOMC meeting on Wednesday. After higher-than-expected inflation data was released in recent months, authorities are expected to change their stance in a hawkish direction. This raises the possibility that BoA may have to abandon proposals for more rapid interest rate cuts that Fed Chairman Jerome Powell made in December. Traders predict that the Fed will only cut interest rates a maximum of two times by the end of the year - this is the lowest prediction since November 2023. Higher interest rates typically impact gold negatively because gold is a non-yielding asset. Although the expected timing of the Fed's interest rate cut was pushed back, gold prices still increased more than 13% this year thanks to many factors such as strong buying demand from central banks and support from Asian markets. (especially China) and rising geopolitical tensions globally (from Ukraine to the Middle East). In recent days, gold prices have also been supported by a weaker USD. The dollar fell on Monday after the yen jumped on fears the Japanese government would intervene to support its currency for the first time since 2022. Any further moves by Japan could put pressure on the Japanese government. pressure on the USD, making gold more attractive to investors because gold prices are calculated in USD.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by MrTrongVo
1
XAUUSD : Will gold fall to 2300 again?Gold has ended its 5-week winning streak, but it can still increase Gold ended a five-week winning streak on Friday, but its rally is likely not over yet as favorable factors such as demand from central banks continue, even as a wave of net withdrawals continues. from gold ETFs began to reverse. Gold prices increased 0.3% to 2,348.75 USD, but fell sharply earlier this week as Middle East tensions are showing signs of being contained. Morgan Stanley said that the road ahead for gold prices will be volatile but more likely to bearish instead of reversing. They forecast a higher likelihood of their bullish price scenario occurring, with gold reaching $2,760/oz in the second half of the year, rather than falling to $2,000/oz. Although the factors pushing up gold prices show no signs of cooling down, the macroeconomic outlook, in which US inflation seems to be more persistent, causes interest rates to remain at higher levels for a long time. more, causing some to doubt the next rise in gold prices. "But if economic data remains strong, leading to more persistent inflation concerns, as well as rising geopolitical risks, gold could still be bought regardless," Morgan Stanley said. Thoi added that if the interest rate cut is implemented sooner than expected, this will be another positive factor for gold.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by MrTrongVo
XAUUSD : In which direction will gold move?Gold slid after high inflation in the US extinguished expectations of the Fed cutting interest rates Gold fell ahead of the Fed meeting, where policymakers are expected to keep interest rates high for longer to control inflation. Gold prices continued last week's momentum and fell by 0.8%. According to data, the US core PCE index rose at a breakneck pace in March. The swaps market is currently only pricing the Fed will cut interest rates once this year, well below the cut. around 150 bps is expected at the beginning of the year. High interest rates are often negative for gold because gold has no interest rate. Gold also lost some support as demand for safe-haven assets weakened, geopolitical risks also decreased as the US was trying to secure a ceasefire agreement in meetings in the Middle East. The foreign exchange market is also in the spotlight as the possibility grows that Japan will support the JPY after the currency fell to its lowest level in more than three decades. If they act, the USD will weaken. Gold has risen about 13% this year, hitting a record earlier this month even though the Fed's cut deadline was pushed back. This price increase is linked to central bank buying, strong demand from Asia, especially China, and rising geopolitical tensions from Ukraine to the Middle East.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by SantaTradeGold
DXY : Why does a stronger USD pose many risks?As US growth remains strong and expectations of the Fed cutting interest rates gradually decrease, capital has poured into this country's market and the USD has increased, specifically 4% this year and shows no signs of stopping. . This situation is made even more difficult by the influence of other countries. By the end of 2023, the US economy had grown by more than 8% compared to the end of 2019. Meanwhile, the UK, France, Germany and Japan had grown by less than 2%. USDJPY record high. EURUSD dropped to 1.07 from 1.10 USD at the beginning of the year. The market even predicts that the pair will reach parity early next year. If Donald Trump wins in November, there will be many problems. A strong dollar tends to increase the price of US exports and lower the price of imports, increasing the persistent US trade deficit, which has been a nagging problem for Mr Trump for decades. Robert Lighthizer, who designed the tariffs against China while Mr. Trump was in the White House, wants to weaken the USD. President Joe Biden has not made any statements about currency, but the strong USD also makes it difficult for his plans. However, a strong USD will benefit exporters whose costs are denominated in other currencies. But high US interest rates and a strong USD have also created imported inflation, which has been exacerbated by rising oil prices. Additionally, companies that have borrowed in USD face tougher repayments. On April 18, Kristalina Georgieva, head of the IMF, warned about the impact of these developments on global financial stability.
TVC:DXY
by SantaTradeGold